February Rankings – Catchers

by
February 23, 2017

We’re going position by position this week and next with our initial roll out of rankings. We will update these in March based on Spring Training activity and injuries.

We’re using Yahoo! eligibility requirements which is 5 starts or 10 appearances. These rankings assume the standard 5×5 categories and a re-draft league. If we forgot someone, please let us know in the comments and we’ll make sure he’s added for the updates. If you have questions for a specific ranker on something he did, let us know in the comments. We can also be reached via Twitter:

There will be differences, sharp differences, within the rankings. The rankers have different philosophies when it comes to ranking, some of which you’re no doubt familiar with through previous iterations. Of course the idea that we’d all think the same would be silly because then what would be the point of including multiple rankers?! Think someone should be higher or lower? Make a case. Let us know why you think that. The chart is sortable. If a ranker didn’t rank someone that the others did, he was given that ranker’s last rank +1.

Schwarber is C eligible at Yahoo! and has been added to the rankings.

Key:

  • AVG– just the average of the seven ranking sets
  • AVG– the average minus the high and low rankings
  • SPLIT– the difference between the high and low rankings

Previous Editions:

February C Rankings
Rk NAME Paul S Brad Mike Jeff Al Justin AVG Adj. AVG Split
1 Buster Posey 1 2 1 1 1 1 1.2 1.0 1
2 Jonathan Lucroy 2 1 4 3 3 2 2.5 2.5 3
3 Gary Sanchez 4 4 3 2 2 3 3.0 3.0 2
4 Kyle Schwarber 3 3 2 4 4 4 3.3 3.5 2
5 Willson Contreras 7 6 6 7 6 10 7.0 6.5 4
6 Yasmani Grandal 5 5 12 6 9 9 7.7 7.3 7
7 Salvador Perez 9 11 5 8 8 5 7.7 7.5 6
8 J.T. Realmuto 12 8 7 12 7 6 8.7 8.5 6
9 Russell Martin 11 7 13 5 10 8 9.0 9.0 8
10 Brian McCann 10 9 14 11 5 11 10.0 10.3 9
11 Evan Gattis 6 10 11 15 13 7 10.3 10.3 9
12 Stephen Vogt 8 16 8 9 21 16 13.0 12.3 13
13 Yadier Molina 15 15 9 10 14 15 13.0 13.5 6
14 Welington Castillo 13 12 16 14 12 14 13.5 13.3 4
15 Matt Wieters 18 14 10 17 15 12 14.3 14.5 8
16 Cameron Rupp 20 13 18 23 16 13 17.2 16.8 10
17 Mike Zunino 24 20 15 21 11 18 18.2 18.5 13
18 Devin Mesoraco 14 30 21 13 19 17 19.0 17.8 17
19 Travis d’Arnaud 25 18 17 19 17 22 19.7 19.0 8
20 Derek Norris 19 19 19 20 26 19 20.3 19.3 7
21 Wilson Ramos 30 22 26 16 16 24 22.3 22.0 14
22 Tom Murphy 16 25 22 33 20 20 22.7 21.8 17
23 Francisco Cervelli 22 26 24 18 22 25 22.8 23.3 8
24 Austin Hedges 23 17 20 25 29 35 24.8 24.3 18
25 Yan Gomes 21 32 25 29 23 23 25.5 25.0 11
26 James McCann 26 27 23 28 30 26 26.7 26.8 7
27 Tony Wolters 17 29 33 26 35 28 28.0 29.0 18
28 Jason Castro 31 38 30 22 28 21 28.3 27.8 17
29 Sandy Leon 28 33 31 30 27 31 30.0 30.0 6
30 Andrew Susac 29 23 29 31 41 38 31.8 31.8 18
31 Blake Swihart 27 24 37 42 32 33 32.5 32.3 18
32 Tyler Flowers 40 34 27 41 24 36 33.7 34.3 17
33 Chris Herrmann 42 28 32 39 25 40 34.3 34.8 17
34 Austin Barnes 34 36 37 32 41 30 35.0 34.8 11
35 Martin Maldonado 32 41 35 24 41 39 35.3 36.8 17
36 Nick Hundley 36 31 37 42 34 34 35.7 35.3 11
37 Miguel Montero 35 37 37 34 41 32 36.0 35.8 9
38 Jett Bandy 39 39 37 42 36 27 36.7 37.8 15
39 Bruce Maxwell III 38 21 37 42 41 43 37.0 39.5 22
40 Jorge Alfaro 46 40 37 42 33 29 37.8 38.0 17





 

Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and Content Director for OOTP Perfect Team. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

62 Comments
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Nasty Nate
7 years ago

Apparently I’m the Yahoo eligibility expert. They gave Schwarber catcher eligibility again this year. I guess when a player barely plays, they use discretion instead of their normal criteria.

4
scottmember
7 years ago
Reply to  Nasty Nate

I expected that omission. I assume they simply default to previous season rankings in a situation like Schwarbers. Have him as a keeper in Yahoo and pretty thrilled about it.

0
Paul Sporermember
7 years ago
Reply to  Nasty Nate

I’m clearly not the Yahoo! eligibility expert and I apologize for that. I’m actually playing in a Yahoo! league this year so I’ll be better prepared next year. I feel comfortable that Schwarber would be top 3. I’ll wrangle up the guys to rank him and update.

1
hegglundmember
7 years ago
Reply to  Paul Sporer

Call me crazy, but I’m ranking Schwarber #1.

-3
Paul Sporermember
7 years ago
Reply to  hegglund

Being top 3 means that’s obviously in play, but I don’t see how he’s ahead of Posey or Lucroy. Doing that is pure speculation because there’s certainly nothing concrete that suggests he belongs above those 2.

2
hegglundmember
7 years ago
Reply to  Paul Sporer

Yeah, it’s totally betting on the come, but I might be OK speccing on the breakout.

0
scottmember
7 years ago
Reply to  Paul Sporer

Not that anyone cares where a laymen like myself has them but I have Schwarber in front of Posey. I do it because what we have on Schwarber may not be concrete, but what we have on Posey is concrete. We know what we are getting, and truthfully, its not that great. Topped 20hr once in last 4 years with modest R+RBI production. Obviously Schwarber has a muchhhh lower floor, but based on his limited sample and projected spot in Cubs order I don’t think anyone would be overly shocked if KS out homers BP by 20 and out R+RBIs him by a significant margin.

-4
Paul Sporermember
7 years ago
Reply to  scott

OK, we gotta stop with pretending that Posey’s output isn’t *great*. First off, you didn’t even mention the batting average which is tops at the position over the last three years WITH the most PA (1842, Sal Perez next at 1705). That alone is enough to be honest, but I gotta address the R+RBI stuff, too.

He is tied w/Russell Martin for the most R+RBI per 600 PA over the last three years with 160. Far from modest. In a down year last year, he was 1st in R by a lot and 2nd in RBI (1 behind Lucroy and tied w/Ramos at 80). Sure, he doesn’t club tons of HRs, but that’s the only thing a player can do.

Posey is still an elite C and the best at the position. I’ll give Schwarber the HR edge, but it would definitely be surprising if he out R+RBI’d him at all, let alone by a big margin.

16
scottmember
7 years ago
Reply to  Paul Sporer

I can’t really see how any Cub in a prime lineup spot would not top 160 R+RBI, especially when they have massive power and OBP skills to go along with the prime slot. Yes, Posey production vs other Cs has been great, but you are comparing him to other Cs not a LF who can hit 40hrs and happens to have a gift of C eligibility.

5
scottmember
7 years ago
Reply to  scott

Madden said Schwarber is leading off. If schwarber hits 25-30hr with 340obp from lead off spot in a top 3 O wouldn’t he be in the running to lead MLB in runs?

1
Paul Sporermember
7 years ago
Reply to  scott

probably not bc he’s going to sit vL … or at the very least not leadoff vL

2
Paul Sporermember
7 years ago
Reply to  scott

4 guys had 160+ R/RBI w/CHC last year. Four.

Schwarber’s chances of hitting 40 HR are pretty low, but even if he does, it’ll likely w/a .250ish AVG. Trumbo earned $22 last yr, Posey was at $19. You’re still greatly ignoring Posey’s AVG value. I’m sorry, your claims just don’t add up here.

6
scottmember
7 years ago
Reply to  Paul Sporer

So if Schwarber hits 25-30 with a .340 obp from leadoff you don’t think he produces more R+RBI than Posey by a healthy margin? Adds up to me. I am not ignoring avg, I simply think the potential disparity in counting stats and power makes up for it. We will see. I don’t think any of my claims are outlandish.

0
Paul Sporermember
7 years ago
Reply to  scott

Posey has been over 160 R+RBI the last 3 yrs and 4 of the last 5. I just don’t see where Schwarber is going to beat him by a healthy margin, especially losing PT to lefties and/or batting low vL when he does play. Furthermore, he’s not going to leadoff ALL the time.

Posey is going to out-AVG him by *at least* 30 points and upwards of 50 pts. That’s HUGE. You’re taking this tiny-probability best-case scenario for Schwarber and thinking it WILL happen. Take off the Cubs-colored glasses a bit and dial it down.

5
scottmember
7 years ago
Reply to  Paul Sporer

“You’re taking this tiny-probability best-case scenario for Schwarber and thinking it WILL happen.”

25hr and a .340 OBP is BELOW projections for him! It is neither a low probability or best case scenario.

“Take off the Cubs-colored glasses a bit and dial it down.”

I am a Yankees fan? This is a fantasy article. I’l take off my fantasy teams colored glasses?

Everything I have said is pure speculation, and doesn’t add up, yet objective projections like steamer prefer Schwarber over Posey. I think it is pretty clear here that you have dug your heels, and refuse to even consider another angle. That means it is time for me to move on from this, there is no winning with you. Night Paul.

2
Paul Sporermember
7 years ago
Reply to  scott

You still haven’t shown a legit path to Schwarber healthily out-earning Posey which has been your primary contention. The Trumbo/Posey comparison from last year really shows a lot here and that’s likely the highest end of Schwarber. You ignore the AVG which is MASSIVE advantage for Posey, the fact that the will lose PT vL, and won’t 100% leadoff vR.

1
scottmember
7 years ago
Reply to  Paul Sporer

I never said he would healthily out earn Posey, I said I prefer him to Posey and think he healthily out earns him in 3 categories.

-Many projection sets including my own projection prefer Schwarber to Posey.

-I absolutely recognize that Posey is more likely to reach his projection than Schwarber is to reach his.

-I also think Schwarber is far more likely to greatly exceed his projections than Posey is to exceed his.

I think my stance is pretty fair. I completely understand people who choose Posey because of the 2nd point I make above. I think it is a reasonable fantasy debate, I do not think 1 is an obvious choice over the other. I do not think I am baseless in preferring Schwarber.

-2
scottmember
7 years ago
Reply to  Paul Sporer

65 players last year hit 25 or more home runs. Of those 65 only 17 (26%)didn’t top 160 r/RBI. And most of those 17 were well short of fulll seasons. So Schwarber, who has great OBP skills and a great lineup, is likely to fall in the small minority of players not to reach the 160 mark? I fully understand the argument of Posey over Schwarber, but to think Schwarber is unlikely to top 160 is what doesn’t add up. Fact is its pretty hard to hit 25+ and not top 160. Also, I didn’t say all cubs are likely to top 160, I said a cub in a great lineup spot is. If we’re using last years cubs as an example, then you also need to factor in that some not only passed 160 but destroyed it which hints at the counting stat potential in that lineup.

0
Nasty Nate
7 years ago
Reply to  scott

While it’s pretty hard to hit 25+ and not top 160, it’s easy to hit fewer than 25 hrs.

4
scottmember
7 years ago
Reply to  Nasty Nate

Is 25 too high of a projection for Schwarber?

-1
Paul Sporermember
7 years ago
Reply to  scott

No, but a 25 HR season w/160 R+RBI doesn’t out-earn Posey hitting mid-teens w/150 R+RBI and a massive AVG edge.

3
Paul Sporermember
7 years ago
Reply to  scott

Flawed logic bc he’s not going to get a leadoff hitter’s complement of PA. He won’t be leading off ALL the time vR and he almost never will vL.

My contention isn’t that he can’t get 160, it’s that you think he’s going to significantly beat Posey. Plus I kinda already addressed it with the Trumbo comparison. That’s about the best case scenario here for Schwarber and it was worth $3 more than Posey in a down year last year. So betting a low percentage outcome for $3 extra value over Posey? Nah.

4
Alice Cooper
7 years ago
Reply to  Paul Sporer

Paul, you have to factor in the “Cub Fan Metric” here. Didn’t you know that every guy on their team is going to perform to their 99th percentile projection and no one is ever going to get hurt and they’re going to win 130 games and the World Series every year for the next 10 years in their dynasty???

DUH!

4
Art Fay
7 years ago
Reply to  Alice Cooper

Well pretty much every cub did perform to their 99th percentile last year!

0
kenai kings
7 years ago
Reply to  scott

Seriously. The only advantage I’d give Schwarber over Posey is in HRs. We’re talking one player who already is being limited ABs vs tough lefties (via Madden) and most likely hitting leadoff vs the other who will bat third every day (while resting up by playing 1b). Even if Schwarb’s hits #2 his RBI numbers are suspect I believe.

1
Vegemitch
7 years ago
Reply to  scott

Something that seems to be missing in this thread is reliability. For the price that you would have to pay for either player (since all it takes is 2 believers to push Schwarber’s price high either by auction or draft position) you simply have to take Posey. If the price is equal, it will be high, and you can’t use up your resources on a top player with such high variance over a consistent across the board producer.

0
Werthlessmember
7 years ago
Reply to  Paul Sporer

The Fangraphs auction calculator using Steamer projections suggest that Schwarber and Sanchez are 1a and 1b in a 5×5 league with batting average. It’s not “pure speculation” to rank them as such. A lot will obviously depend on the playing time question/health risk.

I wouldn’t consider Lucroy until the top 3 catchers are gone, and even then, it’s a bit of a drop-off.

5
Matthias
7 years ago
Reply to  Werthless

For what it’s worth, I took Steamer projections, scored all catchers according to their stats above replacement level (defined as 13th C for every stat – OBP/SLG league), normalized based on typical fantasy team outputs in my league each week, and out popped Schwarber and Sanchez as the top catchers, in that order, very close to each other.

0
Joshua Millermember
7 years ago
Reply to  hegglund

I see where you are coming from, since he isnt going to be playing much if any catcher he will get more PAs but I still think its quite a leap to have him top 3.

0
Nasty Nate
7 years ago
Reply to  Joshua Miller

Shouldn’t people be worried about playing time for BOTH Schwarber and W Contreras? Or does it seem likely that they’ll end up with the normal catcher-level amount of starts?

I see them battling each other for playing time, plus Bryant and Zobrist in LF.

1
hegglundmember
7 years ago
Reply to  Nasty Nate

Both bats play. They’ll find a way.

1
Nasty Nate
7 years ago
Reply to  hegglund

Yeah, I can see that viewpoint. But I’m also imagining the same thing being said in a discussion about infield options regarding Baez, Russell, and Zobrist. Although I guess the departures of Fowler and and Soler opened up more OF opportunities.

2
White Jar
7 years ago
Reply to  Nasty Nate

The projections have Posey with more at bats than Schwarber and the auction calculator still values Schwarber higher in 5X5 standard.

3
Paul Sporermember
7 years ago
Reply to  White Jar

Good for that one projection. I just looked at 2 other projections that favored Posey. One single projection does literally nothing for me.

-4
White Jar
7 years ago
Reply to  Paul Sporer

So you’re saying the auction calculator does literally nothing?

1
Paul Sporermember
7 years ago
Reply to  White Jar

I’m not a huge projection guy. Eno loves the Auction Calculator. I don’t like honing on one number.

1
White Jar
7 years ago
Reply to  Paul Sporer

Honestly I don’t either but I’m not having any success finding projections including my own that rank Schwarber lower than Posey, especially with that C next to his name.

The only way I can make Posey worth more is to significantly reduce Schwarber’s PAs or bump Posey up to 600 which I’m not comfortable with either.

2
Paul Sporermember
7 years ago
Reply to  White Jar

Baseball HQ Forecaster, Rotowire, Peter Kreutzer’s magazine are three off the top

0
White Jar
7 years ago
Reply to  Paul Sporer

Those all cost money. I’m a student with a wife who has access to my bank account transactions. I guess that limits my Posey v. Schwarber insight.

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scottmember
7 years ago
Reply to  Paul Sporer

all 4 projections used on the fangraphs player page prefer Schwarber when using the auction calculator. Fact is its a worthy debate, and you were dismissive. Different opinions are allowed.

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Sleepy
7 years ago
Reply to  scott

Also gotta factor in the helium associated with Schwarber. Posey is now the “boring” vet that produces the same numbers year-in, year-out. Schwarber, meanwhile, IS TOTALLY GONNA HIT 50 BOMBS THIS YEAR YOU GUYS.

0
MustBunique
7 years ago
Reply to  Nasty Nate

Which in my opinion is an atrocity. I wish they would stick to their own eligibility rules. This really impacts keeper leagues.

7