February Rankings – Catchers
We’re going position by position this week and next with our initial roll out of rankings. We will update these in March based on Spring Training activity and injuries.
We’re using Yahoo! eligibility requirements which is 5 starts or 10 appearances. These rankings assume the standard 5×5 categories and a re-draft league. If we forgot someone, please let us know in the comments and we’ll make sure he’s added for the updates. If you have questions for a specific ranker on something he did, let us know in the comments. We can also be reached via Twitter:
There will be differences, sharp differences, within the rankings. The rankers have different philosophies when it comes to ranking, some of which you’re no doubt familiar with through previous iterations. Of course the idea that we’d all think the same would be silly because then what would be the point of including multiple rankers?! Think someone should be higher or lower? Make a case. Let us know why you think that. The chart is sortable. If a ranker didn’t rank someone that the others did, he was given that ranker’s last rank +1.
Schwarber is C eligible at Yahoo! and has been added to the rankings.
Key:
- AVG– just the average of the seven ranking sets
- AVG– the average minus the high and low rankings
- SPLIT– the difference between the high and low rankings
Previous Editions:
| Rk | NAME | Paul S | Brad | Mike | Jeff | Al | Justin | AVG | Adj. AVG | Split |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buster Posey | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1 |
| 2 | Jonathan Lucroy | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 3 |
| 3 | Gary Sanchez | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2 |
| 4 | Kyle Schwarber | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 2 |
| 5 | Willson Contreras | 7 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 4 |
| 6 | Yasmani Grandal | 5 | 5 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 7.7 | 7.3 | 7 |
| 7 | Salvador Perez | 9 | 11 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 6 |
| 8 | J.T. Realmuto | 12 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 8.7 | 8.5 | 6 |
| 9 | Russell Martin | 11 | 7 | 13 | 5 | 10 | 8 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 8 |
| 10 | Brian McCann | 10 | 9 | 14 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 10.0 | 10.3 | 9 |
| 11 | Evan Gattis | 6 | 10 | 11 | 15 | 13 | 7 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 9 |
| 12 | Stephen Vogt | 8 | 16 | 8 | 9 | 21 | 16 | 13.0 | 12.3 | 13 |
| 13 | Yadier Molina | 15 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 15 | 13.0 | 13.5 | 6 |
| 14 | Welington Castillo | 13 | 12 | 16 | 14 | 12 | 14 | 13.5 | 13.3 | 4 |
| 15 | Matt Wieters | 18 | 14 | 10 | 17 | 15 | 12 | 14.3 | 14.5 | 8 |
| 16 | Cameron Rupp | 20 | 13 | 18 | 23 | 16 | 13 | 17.2 | 16.8 | 10 |
| 17 | Mike Zunino | 24 | 20 | 15 | 21 | 11 | 18 | 18.2 | 18.5 | 13 |
| 18 | Devin Mesoraco | 14 | 30 | 21 | 13 | 19 | 17 | 19.0 | 17.8 | 17 |
| 19 | Travis d’Arnaud | 25 | 18 | 17 | 19 | 17 | 22 | 19.7 | 19.0 | 8 |
| 20 | Derek Norris | 19 | 19 | 19 | 20 | 26 | 19 | 20.3 | 19.3 | 7 |
| 21 | Wilson Ramos | 30 | 22 | 26 | 16 | 16 | 24 | 22.3 | 22.0 | 14 |
| 22 | Tom Murphy | 16 | 25 | 22 | 33 | 20 | 20 | 22.7 | 21.8 | 17 |
| 23 | Francisco Cervelli | 22 | 26 | 24 | 18 | 22 | 25 | 22.8 | 23.3 | 8 |
| 24 | Austin Hedges | 23 | 17 | 20 | 25 | 29 | 35 | 24.8 | 24.3 | 18 |
| 25 | Yan Gomes | 21 | 32 | 25 | 29 | 23 | 23 | 25.5 | 25.0 | 11 |
| 26 | James McCann | 26 | 27 | 23 | 28 | 30 | 26 | 26.7 | 26.8 | 7 |
| 27 | Tony Wolters | 17 | 29 | 33 | 26 | 35 | 28 | 28.0 | 29.0 | 18 |
| 28 | Jason Castro | 31 | 38 | 30 | 22 | 28 | 21 | 28.3 | 27.8 | 17 |
| 29 | Sandy Leon | 28 | 33 | 31 | 30 | 27 | 31 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 6 |
| 30 | Andrew Susac | 29 | 23 | 29 | 31 | 41 | 38 | 31.8 | 31.8 | 18 |
| 31 | Blake Swihart | 27 | 24 | 37 | 42 | 32 | 33 | 32.5 | 32.3 | 18 |
| 32 | Tyler Flowers | 40 | 34 | 27 | 41 | 24 | 36 | 33.7 | 34.3 | 17 |
| 33 | Chris Herrmann | 42 | 28 | 32 | 39 | 25 | 40 | 34.3 | 34.8 | 17 |
| 34 | Austin Barnes | 34 | 36 | 37 | 32 | 41 | 30 | 35.0 | 34.8 | 11 |
| 35 | Martin Maldonado | 32 | 41 | 35 | 24 | 41 | 39 | 35.3 | 36.8 | 17 |
| 36 | Nick Hundley | 36 | 31 | 37 | 42 | 34 | 34 | 35.7 | 35.3 | 11 |
| 37 | Miguel Montero | 35 | 37 | 37 | 34 | 41 | 32 | 36.0 | 35.8 | 9 |
| 38 | Jett Bandy | 39 | 39 | 37 | 42 | 36 | 27 | 36.7 | 37.8 | 15 |
| 39 | Bruce Maxwell III | 38 | 21 | 37 | 42 | 41 | 43 | 37.0 | 39.5 | 22 |
| 40 | Jorge Alfaro | 46 | 40 | 37 | 42 | 33 | 29 | 37.8 | 38.0 | 17 |
Apparently I’m the Yahoo eligibility expert. They gave Schwarber catcher eligibility again this year. I guess when a player barely plays, they use discretion instead of their normal criteria.
I expected that omission. I assume they simply default to previous season rankings in a situation like Schwarbers. Have him as a keeper in Yahoo and pretty thrilled about it.
I’m clearly not the Yahoo! eligibility expert and I apologize for that. I’m actually playing in a Yahoo! league this year so I’ll be better prepared next year. I feel comfortable that Schwarber would be top 3. I’ll wrangle up the guys to rank him and update.
Call me crazy, but I’m ranking Schwarber #1.
Being top 3 means that’s obviously in play, but I don’t see how he’s ahead of Posey or Lucroy. Doing that is pure speculation because there’s certainly nothing concrete that suggests he belongs above those 2.
Yeah, it’s totally betting on the come, but I might be OK speccing on the breakout.
Not that anyone cares where a laymen like myself has them but I have Schwarber in front of Posey. I do it because what we have on Schwarber may not be concrete, but what we have on Posey is concrete. We know what we are getting, and truthfully, its not that great. Topped 20hr once in last 4 years with modest R+RBI production. Obviously Schwarber has a muchhhh lower floor, but based on his limited sample and projected spot in Cubs order I don’t think anyone would be overly shocked if KS out homers BP by 20 and out R+RBIs him by a significant margin.
OK, we gotta stop with pretending that Posey’s output isn’t *great*. First off, you didn’t even mention the batting average which is tops at the position over the last three years WITH the most PA (1842, Sal Perez next at 1705). That alone is enough to be honest, but I gotta address the R+RBI stuff, too.
He is tied w/Russell Martin for the most R+RBI per 600 PA over the last three years with 160. Far from modest. In a down year last year, he was 1st in R by a lot and 2nd in RBI (1 behind Lucroy and tied w/Ramos at 80). Sure, he doesn’t club tons of HRs, but that’s the only thing a player can do.
Posey is still an elite C and the best at the position. I’ll give Schwarber the HR edge, but it would definitely be surprising if he out R+RBI’d him at all, let alone by a big margin.
I can’t really see how any Cub in a prime lineup spot would not top 160 R+RBI, especially when they have massive power and OBP skills to go along with the prime slot. Yes, Posey production vs other Cs has been great, but you are comparing him to other Cs not a LF who can hit 40hrs and happens to have a gift of C eligibility.
Madden said Schwarber is leading off. If schwarber hits 25-30hr with 340obp from lead off spot in a top 3 O wouldn’t he be in the running to lead MLB in runs?
probably not bc he’s going to sit vL … or at the very least not leadoff vL
4 guys had 160+ R/RBI w/CHC last year. Four.
Schwarber’s chances of hitting 40 HR are pretty low, but even if he does, it’ll likely w/a .250ish AVG. Trumbo earned $22 last yr, Posey was at $19. You’re still greatly ignoring Posey’s AVG value. I’m sorry, your claims just don’t add up here.
So if Schwarber hits 25-30 with a .340 obp from leadoff you don’t think he produces more R+RBI than Posey by a healthy margin? Adds up to me. I am not ignoring avg, I simply think the potential disparity in counting stats and power makes up for it. We will see. I don’t think any of my claims are outlandish.
Posey has been over 160 R+RBI the last 3 yrs and 4 of the last 5. I just don’t see where Schwarber is going to beat him by a healthy margin, especially losing PT to lefties and/or batting low vL when he does play. Furthermore, he’s not going to leadoff ALL the time.
Posey is going to out-AVG him by *at least* 30 points and upwards of 50 pts. That’s HUGE. You’re taking this tiny-probability best-case scenario for Schwarber and thinking it WILL happen. Take off the Cubs-colored glasses a bit and dial it down.
“You’re taking this tiny-probability best-case scenario for Schwarber and thinking it WILL happen.”
25hr and a .340 OBP is BELOW projections for him! It is neither a low probability or best case scenario.
“Take off the Cubs-colored glasses a bit and dial it down.”
I am a Yankees fan? This is a fantasy article. I’l take off my fantasy teams colored glasses?
Everything I have said is pure speculation, and doesn’t add up, yet objective projections like steamer prefer Schwarber over Posey. I think it is pretty clear here that you have dug your heels, and refuse to even consider another angle. That means it is time for me to move on from this, there is no winning with you. Night Paul.
You still haven’t shown a legit path to Schwarber healthily out-earning Posey which has been your primary contention. The Trumbo/Posey comparison from last year really shows a lot here and that’s likely the highest end of Schwarber. You ignore the AVG which is MASSIVE advantage for Posey, the fact that the will lose PT vL, and won’t 100% leadoff vR.
I never said he would healthily out earn Posey, I said I prefer him to Posey and think he healthily out earns him in 3 categories.
-Many projection sets including my own projection prefer Schwarber to Posey.
-I absolutely recognize that Posey is more likely to reach his projection than Schwarber is to reach his.
-I also think Schwarber is far more likely to greatly exceed his projections than Posey is to exceed his.
I think my stance is pretty fair. I completely understand people who choose Posey because of the 2nd point I make above. I think it is a reasonable fantasy debate, I do not think 1 is an obvious choice over the other. I do not think I am baseless in preferring Schwarber.
65 players last year hit 25 or more home runs. Of those 65 only 17 (26%)didn’t top 160 r/RBI. And most of those 17 were well short of fulll seasons. So Schwarber, who has great OBP skills and a great lineup, is likely to fall in the small minority of players not to reach the 160 mark? I fully understand the argument of Posey over Schwarber, but to think Schwarber is unlikely to top 160 is what doesn’t add up. Fact is its pretty hard to hit 25+ and not top 160. Also, I didn’t say all cubs are likely to top 160, I said a cub in a great lineup spot is. If we’re using last years cubs as an example, then you also need to factor in that some not only passed 160 but destroyed it which hints at the counting stat potential in that lineup.
While it’s pretty hard to hit 25+ and not top 160, it’s easy to hit fewer than 25 hrs.
Is 25 too high of a projection for Schwarber?
No, but a 25 HR season w/160 R+RBI doesn’t out-earn Posey hitting mid-teens w/150 R+RBI and a massive AVG edge.
Flawed logic bc he’s not going to get a leadoff hitter’s complement of PA. He won’t be leading off ALL the time vR and he almost never will vL.
My contention isn’t that he can’t get 160, it’s that you think he’s going to significantly beat Posey. Plus I kinda already addressed it with the Trumbo comparison. That’s about the best case scenario here for Schwarber and it was worth $3 more than Posey in a down year last year. So betting a low percentage outcome for $3 extra value over Posey? Nah.
Paul, you have to factor in the “Cub Fan Metric” here. Didn’t you know that every guy on their team is going to perform to their 99th percentile projection and no one is ever going to get hurt and they’re going to win 130 games and the World Series every year for the next 10 years in their dynasty???
DUH!
Well pretty much every cub did perform to their 99th percentile last year!
Seriously. The only advantage I’d give Schwarber over Posey is in HRs. We’re talking one player who already is being limited ABs vs tough lefties (via Madden) and most likely hitting leadoff vs the other who will bat third every day (while resting up by playing 1b). Even if Schwarb’s hits #2 his RBI numbers are suspect I believe.
Something that seems to be missing in this thread is reliability. For the price that you would have to pay for either player (since all it takes is 2 believers to push Schwarber’s price high either by auction or draft position) you simply have to take Posey. If the price is equal, it will be high, and you can’t use up your resources on a top player with such high variance over a consistent across the board producer.
The Fangraphs auction calculator using Steamer projections suggest that Schwarber and Sanchez are 1a and 1b in a 5×5 league with batting average. It’s not “pure speculation” to rank them as such. A lot will obviously depend on the playing time question/health risk.
I wouldn’t consider Lucroy until the top 3 catchers are gone, and even then, it’s a bit of a drop-off.
For what it’s worth, I took Steamer projections, scored all catchers according to their stats above replacement level (defined as 13th C for every stat – OBP/SLG league), normalized based on typical fantasy team outputs in my league each week, and out popped Schwarber and Sanchez as the top catchers, in that order, very close to each other.
I see where you are coming from, since he isnt going to be playing much if any catcher he will get more PAs but I still think its quite a leap to have him top 3.
Shouldn’t people be worried about playing time for BOTH Schwarber and W Contreras? Or does it seem likely that they’ll end up with the normal catcher-level amount of starts?
I see them battling each other for playing time, plus Bryant and Zobrist in LF.
Both bats play. They’ll find a way.
Yeah, I can see that viewpoint. But I’m also imagining the same thing being said in a discussion about infield options regarding Baez, Russell, and Zobrist. Although I guess the departures of Fowler and and Soler opened up more OF opportunities.
The projections have Posey with more at bats than Schwarber and the auction calculator still values Schwarber higher in 5X5 standard.
Good for that one projection. I just looked at 2 other projections that favored Posey. One single projection does literally nothing for me.
So you’re saying the auction calculator does literally nothing?
I’m not a huge projection guy. Eno loves the Auction Calculator. I don’t like honing on one number.
Honestly I don’t either but I’m not having any success finding projections including my own that rank Schwarber lower than Posey, especially with that C next to his name.
The only way I can make Posey worth more is to significantly reduce Schwarber’s PAs or bump Posey up to 600 which I’m not comfortable with either.
Baseball HQ Forecaster, Rotowire, Peter Kreutzer’s magazine are three off the top
Those all cost money. I’m a student with a wife who has access to my bank account transactions. I guess that limits my Posey v. Schwarber insight.
all 4 projections used on the fangraphs player page prefer Schwarber when using the auction calculator. Fact is its a worthy debate, and you were dismissive. Different opinions are allowed.
Also gotta factor in the helium associated with Schwarber. Posey is now the “boring” vet that produces the same numbers year-in, year-out. Schwarber, meanwhile, IS TOTALLY GONNA HIT 50 BOMBS THIS YEAR YOU GUYS.
Which in my opinion is an atrocity. I wish they would stick to their own eligibility rules. This really impacts keeper leagues.