Fantasy Implications for Recent Trades (DET-AZ & NYY-CWS)
Within the past 24 hours, two substantial trades have occurred. The Yankees sent Tyler Clippard, Ian Clarkin, Blake Rutherford and Tito Polo to the White Sox for Todd Frazier, David Robertson, and Tommy Kahnle. Additionally, the Diamondbacks sent Dawel Lugo, Jose King, and Sergio Alcantara to the Tigers J.D. Martinez. Here are the players who will likely see their fantasy value change because of the move from the most value gained to least gained.
Yoan Moncada: The game’s number one prospect gets called up to replace Frazier. The 22-year-old switch hitter has the chance to post both double digit home runs and stolen bases over the rest of the season. I could see him post 20 stolen bases as the White Sox may let him run wild with nothing to play for.
Now, Moncada does come with some batting average and on base concerns. Steamer has him projected at a .230 AVG and a .310 OBP. These values, especially the batting average, could be a drag on a team. His owners may want to consider moving him as his value may never be higher and he could bring back a more rounded player.
Tyler Clippard or Anthony Swarzak: One of these two will be the White Sox’s closer and be in line for Saves. Neither is lights out so either could struggle with the job. Also, one or both could get traded in the next week as the White Sox trade current assets for future value.
I have a notion the White Sox will go with a bullpen by committee until the end of the trade deadline. Then they will settle on a single closer.
Alex Presley: For now it seems like Presley will be the Tigers right fielder. While this addition will drag down the rest of the lineup, he will see regular playing time and accumulate the counting stats that go with the promotion.
Diamondbacks lineup: Martinez is a huge lineup improvement.
Todd Frazier: The trade improves Frazier’s value but not a ton. The main gain will additional Runs and RBI as the Yankees are averaging 5.4 R/G while the White Sox are about one run less at 4.5 R/G. These extra runs produced could be offset by a smaller HR park factor in Yankees Stadium.
Additionally, it is not clear where Frazier will hit in the Yankees lineup. Frazier has only one usable trait, power. Frazier may end up being slotted low in the lineup behind anyone with on base skills with the hope he can drive them in.
J.D. Martinez: This move is a near neutral move for Martinez. He’s still going to play all the time. Both teams score about the same amount of runs (4.81 to 4.95 R/G). The home run home park factor increases some from 99 to 101. Now, Chase Field does play allow more doubles and triples but speed is not part of Martinez’s game. Nothing really moves his value.
The non-closer between Tyler Clippard and Anthony Swarzak: There is a chance that the loser of this “battle” could eventually get Save chances if the other pitcher struggles, gets hurt, or is traded.
Dellin Betances: It seems like Robertson will be Chapman’s setup man so Betances is even further away from getting Saves.
Tito Polo: There’s a small chance for him getting called up. If he does, he could a decent source of steals with 27 so far this season in the minors.
Garrett Cooper: Most people knew Cooper’s time at first was to be limited. He did make it a whole four games before being replaced.
Gregor Blanco, Daniel Descalso, and Chris Herrmann: One of these three have patrolling left field for the Diamondbacks since early June. Now they are all regulated to the bench or Triple-A with Martinez now in the outfield.
Tigers lineup: Martinez will be missed as Presley replaces him.
Gregory Bird: Bird isn’t back until mid-September at the earliest (ankle surgery). Now the chances of him playing this season is zero with Frazier at first.
Tommy Kahnle: While Kahnle didn’t have much fantasy value before the trade, it’s less now. He now needs three of the games top relievers to implode or get injured to close. Just a few days ago, he looked to be Robertson’s replacement.
David Robertson: Moving from full-time closer duties for the White Sox to the setup man for the Yankees just killed his fantasy value in most leagues. He will need a Chapman injury to possibly get Saves in the future and have the Yankees pick him over Betances.
Prospects non-factors for 2017: Ian Clarkin, Blake Rutherford, Dawel Lugo, Jose King, and Sergio Alcantara.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Poor Kahnle. Top 5 reliever in most metrics (outside of saves and holds), and 4th in line to close.
He is still a nice piece if you are trying to protect ratios or build Ks against an innings cap, but even in a league that counts holds, he doesn’t seem to be in line for many high leverage situations. Best case scenario might be if the Yankees turn him into an Andrew Miller type and cycle through the other three in the 8th and 9th.