Fantasy Baseball Chat With Jeff Zimmerman
11:00 |
: Dom Smith or Matt Olson in a dynasty league? Thanks much.
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11:01 |
: Olson right now. I’m really worried about Smith’s playing time over the next few years.
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11:01 |
: Jeff, what is your outlook for Jonathan Villar? Assuming he signs with a team, do you envision him as a utility bench player or a starter that could reward those that draft him?
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11:02 |
: He’s undraftable for me until he signs. No one can guess his role, so until it is known, assume the worst.
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11:02 |
: Who are some of the later “closers” that are being drafted that you have some faith in drafting?
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11:03 |
: Martin with the Braves.
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11:03 |
: Holland with the Royals
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11:03 |
: Justin Upton is a) victim of small sample size b) on a two year, downward trajectory due to age and injury c) all of the above.
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11:04 |
: b and he did try to rework his swing late in the season.
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11:05 |
: Was Kentel hurt last year??
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11:05 |
: Not that I have read
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11:05 |
: Setting up my rankings for a startup dynasty league and I’m unsure of what to do with Yordan Alvarez. Right now, I have him as an early 3rd-rounder (14-team league). Is the risk too high for such an early pick?
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11:06 |
: It would be for me. I’m not rostering a DH-only with two recent knee surgeries.
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11:06 |
: Wander get unleashed as a full time player sometime this year? Lux have a shot at a full time position? Thanks.
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11:07 |
: Maybe on Franco, but sure. No on Lux
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11:07 |
: Do you change team names every year? Or stick with the same one?
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11:07 |
: I usually change or don’t change it at all.
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11:08 |
: Should 10 category H2H have a different Hitter/Pitcher OLS than standard roto? Seems like a big week from an Ace can go a long way towards 2-3 categories across all the 1-week sample size matchups
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11:08 |
: Not really IMO. Just draft the aces. Also, if a hitter has a 3 HR game, they are going to carry team.
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11:09 |
: How are you evaluating prospects ahead of a MiLB draft in any leagues where you have them? In a deep dynasty where 85% of all top 100 lists aren’t available how would you throw your darts?
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11:10 |
: No idea really. I’d go in with the assumption nothing changed but be ready to pivot on a dime if there is any new info.
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11:10 |
: if someone is looking for an edge what is the biggest inefficiency you see or hear about in redraft home leagues?
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11:10 |
: Home town bias. Let everyone else bid up the home town boys.
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11:10 |
: How are you adjusting pitching in a quality starts league? Is it as simple as moving up pitchers who have a track record of going deep, or are there any younger pitchers ready for a larger workload?
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11:11 |
: I’m looking into IP/S in September. Who could go late into games.
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11:12 |
: I expect all pitchers to have a short leash in April and May, but then start to go longer.
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11:12 |
: What’s your Plesac ERA/WHIP projection for 2021? How many $ do you think he’s worth on draft day (assuming $260/team).
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11:13 |
: I haven’t created one beyond the standard Steamer one yet. Sorry
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11:13 |
: In a shallow 10-team yahoo league without MI/CI (very shallow!!) would you significantly prioritize SP > bats since waiver wire replacement level should be incredibly high for hitters? Auction calculator still makes bats look attractive if one assumes 60-67% of budget to hitters
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11:14 |
: I would grab several aces and then ignore the positions for a while
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11:14 |
: How concerned are you about hitters who struggled from not having video like JDM/Yelich going into 2021?
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11:15 |
: Some, but it’s tough to know the true effects.
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11:16 |
: If I do anything, I’ll just revert back to the players 2020 projection.
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11:16 |
: Last season I ran a best ball WAR league for 8 friends and family. 40 man rosters, prorated 700 best PA per position and best 1400 innings. “Best” was determined by WAR/PA or WAR/IP. Any services that do something similar?
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11:16 |
: None that I know, sorry.
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11:16 |
: If you were going to cut one of equal price Rhys Hoskins or Eugenio Suarez, who goes?
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11:17 |
: Hoskins. There are a ton of serviceable first basemen.
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11:17 |
: How interested are you in Varsho? Do you think he can get the projected 10ish steals?
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11:18 |
: I’m extremely interested. With so many bad catchers, he’s worth a shot.
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11:18 |
: Is there a home for Didi G anywhere?
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11:18 |
: Cleveland once they trade Lindor
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11:19 |
: Ha-Seong signing with Padres is how bad for Croneworth? 150 ADP or so seems high for Croneworth if he’s starting 4 times a week and batting 7th…
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11:19 |
: I thing Ha-Seong is the player without a job according to the team. More on this once my Mining the News comes out later today
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11:20 |
: Is DJ Stewart just a boring platoon guy or is there some upside there? Looks like a bit of (surprising) speed upside to go with the pop.
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11:21 |
: The problem with Stewart is that he doesn’t have a position right now with four outfielders ahead of him on the Orioles depth chart
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11:21 |
: Is Nellie Cruz keepable as a FA right now? or not until he signs
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11:22 |
: I’d wait until he signs
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11:22 |
: Any upside in Bubic or is just just a boring backend guy?
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11:23 |
: Yes, but it’s tough to know from where. He had more minor league strikeouts with better control. Also, his 1.4 HR/9 could regress.
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11:23 |
: Is there a home for Jurickson?
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11:24 |
: Yep, I think he’ll wait until all the big names sign and then see where he fits in.
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11:24 |
: Not really into Justus Sheffield, but is he far enough down in terms of ADP that he’s kind of interesting? Locked in spot, tons of grounders. If he can get back a bit of the swing and miss, he looks like an interesting piece.
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11:25 |
: Agree, a nice late dart
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11:25 |
: Thanks for answering my terrible questions Jeff
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11:25 |
: np
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11:25 |
: Am I crazy to still be holding out hope for Ramon Laureano – top 20 OFer? People seem to have moved on, even though what we just saw looks a lot like a predictable sophomore slump
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11:26 |
: Top-20, maybe not, but as a team’s #2 or #3, sure.
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11:26 |
: If you could keep 3 of these guys at equal cost in 10-team H2H which 1 would you let go of: Bellinger, Yelich, Darvish, Bieber
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11:27 |
: Drop Darvish. mid-30’s starter with an injury history. Pass
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11:27 |
: If the Rockies were forced to play Brendan Rodgers (or he was mercifully traded), what could we expect? How much of a worry are the shoulder issues?
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11:27 |
: I’m worried about him staying on the field. He has never been healthy.
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11:28 |
: Last year, I traded Mookie Betts, Matt Chapman, and Caleb Smith for Giancarlo Stanton, Ad Mondesi, and Kyle Tucker. Am I an idiot?
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11:28 |
: I like your side. You could end up with three 1st round values for one.
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11:29 |
: Who are some of the most notable victims of recency bias you’re seeing in early rankings?
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11:29 |
: Arozarena
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11:29 |
: Darvish
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11:29 |
: Plesac
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11:30 |
: Odds AJ Puk is moved to the pen at some point during 2021?
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11:30 |
: I think it might be the only option for him. More of the Carlos Martinez career path, but with less health.
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11:31 |
: who starts the season as the closer for the rangers and who leads the team in saves… thanks happy new year
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11:31 |
: Hernandez for both
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11:31 |
: What are your thoughts on how good Framber actually is?
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11:32 |
: Valdez. I love the profile of strikeouts and groundballs. I’ll not be surprised if he’s being drafted as a top-10 starter next season.
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11:32 |
: Is the Alejandro Kirk hype out of control? What’s the realistic power upside there?
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11:33 |
: With no talent in the catcher pool, a projected batting average over .250 could get anyone excited.
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11:33 |
: Is Aquino interesting if he can get regular PT again? Or is the hit tool just too bad?
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11:34 |
: He’d be interesting, but there are still too many bats on that team especially without the DH
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11:34 |
: John Means was solid in 2019 and then had a terrible start and great finish in 2020. Any interest in him, and do you think his projections (almost 5 ERA) are too bearish?
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11:35 |
: Means falls into the German Marquez group of pitchers, usually start them on the road. Sometimes I don’t have the bench space for such hassles.
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11:36 |
: Do the SD transactions mean Lessjon instead of Morejon?
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11:36 |
: I think Morejon will get a shot have some late season changes.
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11:36 |
: Any moderate power upside in JP Crawford? Or is he just a good contract/OBP guy with a little speed?
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11:37 |
: I don’t think so. A disappointment
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11:37 |
: If I got a relatively cheap Brad Hand in standard otto, is he a keep or trade at this point, without a job?
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11:37 |
: Keep for now
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11:37 |
: Any SP outside the top 40 pitcher ADP that you are buying in bulk?
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11:38 |
: I’ve only done deep leagues (40 or more rounds) and Patrick Sandoval is someone I’ve been targetting.
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11:39 |
: That said, I need to come up with a better plan to target players using ADP. I’ve been going with early and then late pitching with all hitters between. I think I need to mix things up more.
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11:39 |
: Your outlook/thoughts on new Nats 1B/DH Josh Bell?
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11:40 |
: It’s great for Bell’s value.
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11:40 |
: It would be nice if the Nats added a couple more impact bats.
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11:40 |
: Are you going to release player rankings this year? If so where (was it robo fanatic last year?)
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11:41 |
: Stay tuned for some changes at FanGraphs (e.g. rework of the auction calculator).
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11:41 |
: Really enjoyed reading the process last year. Going to re-read this year. It inspired me to punt saves in my H2H home league – which has helped with my hair loss
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11:42 |
: Thanks.
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11:42 |
: Is Darvish really recency bias? He’s been on a consistent tear since mid 2019
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11:42 |
: So not even a full season of data?
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11:42 |
: Can you get Alex Chamberlain on launch angle as a guest? I’d love to hear you guys talk strategy together
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11:43 |
: Sure, but I hope I already have next week’s lined up.
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11:43 |
: What’s your take on Dylan Carlson in a keeper? ZIPS doesn’t like him very much!
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11:44 |
: I think he needs to be kept with his 2nd half changes.
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11:44 |
: If the Indians trade Lindor, will there be enough around Ramirez to keep him near the top for 3B?
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11:45 |
: I think they may add some cheap bats like Cron or Profar. Or who they get back in trade. It’s still early in the offseason.
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11:45 |
: Do you think Tellez will finish as a top 10-12 1B next year?
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11:45 |
: Not sure on top-12. More 15 to 20 for me.
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11:45 |
: Any idea when the ATC projections will be released?
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11:47 |
: Since it aggregates projections, it needs more to be released.
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11:47 |
: What do you make of a guy like Pache in terms of SB potential? Excellent speed, but doesn’t seem to know how to use it on the bases.
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11:47 |
: I’m interested, but I haven’t watch him enough.
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11:47 |
: Are there any ranger starters you’re eyeing (maybe Dunning or the Japanese pitcher)? Do the pitching friendly park factors help give them some upside?
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11:48 |
: Dunning for sure. I’m interested in Hearn and Hernandez still the team wants them to 2 IP per appearance
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11:49 |
: Who is the most likely first round pick that will be drafted outside of the first five rounds next year. Vice versa?
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11:49 |
: One of the pitchers after they blow out an arm. Possibly Story depending on if he gets traded.
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11:49 |
: Anything besides health (no given obviously) holding Senzel back?
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11:50 |
: The team has a ton of hitters and only so many PAs to go around.
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11:50 |
: Thoughts on Lance Lynn on the CWS in a FGPTs format? Would you say he’s top 25 SP?
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11:51 |
: Yes since he’s a volume pitcher
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11:51 |
: How big of a hit does Davies moving from Petco to Wrigley but West to Central?
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11:51 |
: Little to none IMO, neutral move.
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11:51 |
: Do you think Dubon has the ability to clear the 15/15 mark?
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11:52 |
: Is SF moving in the outfield walls? No chance on the 15 HRs
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11:52 |
: Which position can you wait the longest to fill during the draft?
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11:52 |
: OF, 1B, and SS all have decent late options.
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11:53 |
: I didn’t mean top 40 rounds, top 40 pitchers. Asked a better way: What SP are you targeting after round 10 (you mentioned you like going SP early and late, who are those late guys you like?)
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11:56 |
: I’m drafting pitchers starting in round 30. I completely ignore those going from round 10 to 30. I’ve found no batters after round 30 contribute, so I grab all I want before then and then go only pitchers.
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11:57 |
: Can I be a top 10-12 1B now that I am in Texas?
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11:57 |
: No
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11:57 |
1) Top 50 SP 2) A guy you drop by May |
11:57 |
: Drop by May
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11:57 |
: Is Mike Minor going to hold up his new swing and miss despite the decline in velocity?
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11:57 |
: Not sure. He’s been all over the place the last few seasons.
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11:58 |
: Are you buying Teoscar Hernandez breakout 2020?
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11:58 |
: Yes, but not as much as others.
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11:58 |
: Who is better for fantasy on a per game basis this year wander, Vaughn or kelenic
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11:59 |
: Opposite order you have them.
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11:59 |
: Keeper Q for a 12 tm 5×5 OBP/QS league. Pick 3. Wander (12th rd), Darvish (4th), Buxton (20th rd), Alonso (5th Rd), Sano (16th rd), Flaherty (9th rd)
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12:00 |
: Darvish, Flaherty, …. Wander.
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12:00 |
: I’m not set on the last pick
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12:00 |
: Cronenworth or Arozorena as a keeper in a 5 x 5 roto league?
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12:01 |
: Arozorena
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12:01 |
: That’s it for this week. I’ll be around next week.
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Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Marquez was fine at home. He actually had a pretty good season all around especially when you factor in total IP, which few others touched. His GB ways seem to make him an acceptable starter at home. I wouldn’t start him vs Dodgers at home (maybe SD either) but for the most part he’s good.