FAAB & Waiver Wire Report (Week 5)
In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.
Batters
Note: I may cut the rostership rate on the hitters at some point. Also, I wonder if managers are cycling out their darts for steady contributors.
Andy Pages: I might have misvalued Pages last week and he’s now rostered in all my leagues. He’s showing nice power (2 HR, 110 maxEV) and is not a drag on batting average (.286).
Amed Rosario: Started in 12 straight games while hitting .337/.352/.483 with 2 HR and 3 SB. One item to watch is that Josh Lowe is coming off the IL and Lowe had been playing right field. I guess that Rosario will move to second base and Curtis Mead to the bench.
Tommy Pham: Pham debuted on Friday while hitting in the two-hole for the White Sox. At this point in his career, he is probably just a 15 HR/15 SB bat but that’s valuable.
Luis Rengifo: Started in nine of ten games with a .290 AVG and 7 SB. Qualified at every position including bullpen catcher.
Bryan De La Cruz: Solid contributor with 5 HR and a .255 AVG.
Johan Rojas: Great speed threat (7 SB), started hitting (.317/.364./.390 last 14 days), and still playing (seven straight starts). The high ranking is based mainly on being a steal source.
Mark Canha: Started in 15 of the last 16 games while hitting 5 HR with a .271 AVG.
Jesse Winker: Remains a steady contributor (2 HR, 2 SB, .284 AVG).
Luis García Jr.: The 24-year-old is finally living up to his potential with 5 SB and a .308 AVG this season.
Blake Perkins: Steady bat (3 HR, 2 SB, .313 AVG) with everyday at-bats.
Wilyer Abreu: While Abreu is hitting (.905 OPS, 2 HR, 4 SB), his playing time will get dicey with Tyler O’Neill off the IL. It seems like he’ll be on the strong side of a platoon with Rob Refsnyder being on the other side. The Red Sox do face fight righties next week.
Jo Adell: He’s showing signs of life (23% K%, .293 AVG, 2 HR) and started four games in a row. [itshappening.gif]
Hunter Goodman: Goodman didn’t come out of nowhere. Preseason projections had near 30 HR with a .250 AVG. After hitting 7 HR in the minors, he’s already gone yard once. The key will come down to playing time.
Pete Crow-Armstrong: He’s playing better this time in the majors (e.g. got on base by hitting a ball). He’s started twice in center field. If the projections are accurate, he’s a nice source of power and speed.
Brenton Doyle: He has been a nice player this season (.330 AVG, 3 HR, 4 SB) but the homestand, including games in Mexico City, is over. While he goes on the road next week, it is against Pittsburgh and Miami.
Josh Smith: Plays and hits for average (.293 AVG).
Harrison Bader: Ten starts in the last 11 games while providing 5 SB and a .267 AVG.
Tyler Freeman: His batting average has tanked (.222 AVG, .232 BABIP) but the 3 HR and 3 SB are helpful.
Blaze Alexander: He was starting to settle in at shortstop (.316 AVG, 3 HR) but is dealing with a hamstring injury. Kevin Newman (.577 OPS) has taken over at shortstop but shouldn’t stand in BLAZE’s way when he’s healthy.
Matt Mervis: After hitting .288/.402/.606 with 5 HR in AAA, Mervis has been promoted and started in three of four games.
Ryan O’Hearn: While he’s been great (.941 OPS, 4 HR) it has only been against righties (65 PA vs RHP, 3 PA vs LHP). Next week he is scheduled to face only three righties.
Mike Tauchman: He is hitting for average (.295 AVG) and has seven straight starts. A better real-life player than a roto asset.
Miguel Sanó: He’s turning back into the Sano we have come to love with a 38% K% and sub-.100 ISO even though he’s the biggest boy on the field.
Joc Pederson: Only starts against righties. Faced three righties this weekend and will five next week (3 on the weekend).
Trevor Larnach: Strong-side platoon bat who has cut his strikeout rate by 13% so far. The Twins face five righties next week.
Richie Palacios: Strong side platoon bat with Jose Siri (.545 OPS). On the season, Palacios has 2 HR with a .782 OPS.
Danny Mendick: During the recent Launch Angle Pod (35:40), Rob Silver mentioned he couldn’t wait to get his hands on Mendick and his massive eight minor league dongs. When I get advice like that, I can’t just let it hang but allow everyone to admire the greatness.
Austin Martin: Started in six of the last seven games while hitting .222/.276/.370, 1 HR, and 1 SB on the season. I’m not sure what he does.
Gabriel Arias: Sort of playing (seven starts in the last 10 games) and sort of hitting (1 HR, 3 SB, .278 AVG).
LaMonte Wade Jr.: Only faces righties but hits when he does (.940 OPS). Next week, he’s scheduled to face four.
Abraham Toro: Lost his leadoff spot once he started struggling at the plate (.192/.222/.346 over the last 14 days).
Heston Kjerstad: For now, he’s unrosterable because he’s not playing. A bench-bat in a loaded lineup.
Addison Barger: Hit decent in AAA (.314 .435 .586), but barely plays in the majors (2 GS, 8 PA, 0 BB, 0 H).
Ernie Clement: Only started in four of the last 10 games while posting a .286 AVG with 2 HR and 2 SB.
Catchers
Travis d’Arnaud: Over the past two weeks he hit 5 HR with a 1.304 OPS. Ride the hot streak.
Connor Wong: He’s shoving with 5 HR and a .356 AVG. Probably a must-roster in all formats.
Patrick Bailey: Hitting great for a catcher (.297 AVG, 3 HR, 1 SB).
Joey Bart: He’s found new life with the Pirates by hitting .304 with 3 HR.
Elias Díaz: The home stretch is over and his .780 OPS is about to take a hit (career .728 OPS at home, .663 OPS on the road).
Hitting Prospects
Joey Loperfido: In AAA, the 24-year-old is hitting .263/.357/.674 with 12 HR and 3 SB in 112 PA.
Orelvis Martinez: In AAA, the 22-year-old is hitting .307/.365/.636 with 7 HR and 0 SB in 96 PA.
Kyle Manzardo: In AAA, the 23-year-old is hitting .296/.378/.556 with 5 HR and 0 SB in 98 PA.
Coby Mayo: In AAA, the 22-year-old is hitting .317/.374/.615 with 7 HR and 3 SB.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Travis d’Arnaud C ATL | 37% | 65% | 28% |
| Bryan De La Cruz DH MIA | 37% | 61% | 24% |
| Heston Kjerstad RF BAL | 36% | 57% | 21% |
| Luis Rengifo 2B LAA | 36% | 41% | 5% |
| Ryan O’Hearn DH BAL | 35% | 41% | 6% |
| Elias Diaz C COL | 35% | 38% | 3% |
| Andy Pages RF LAD | 33% | 48% | 15% |
| Jesse Winker LF WAS | 32% | 43% | 11% |
| Amed Rosario RF TB | 31% | 69% | 38% |
| Brenton Doyle CF COL | 29% | 38% | 9% |
| Coby Mayo 3B BAL | 29% | 31% | 2% |
| Mark Canha LF DET | 26% | 41% | 15% |
| Kyle Manzardo 1B CLE | 25% | 28% | 3% |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong CF CHC | 23% | 31% | 8% |
| Joc Pederson DH ARI | 22% | 24% | 2% |
| Blaze Alexander SS ARI | 21% | 29% | 8% |
| Joey Loperfido OF HOU | 21% | 25% | 4% |
| Josh H. Smith 3B TEX | 20% | 24% | 4% |
| Harrison Bader CF NYM | 16% | 20% | 4% |
| Luis Garcia 2B WAS | 15% | 36% | 21% |
| Connor Wong C BOS | 12% | 25% | 13% |
| Patrick Bailey C SF | 12% | 23% | 11% |
| Blake Perkins CF MIL | 12% | 19% | 7% |
| LaMonte Wade 1B SF | 12% | 15% | 3% |
| Wilyer Abreu RF BOS | 11% | 47% | 36% |
| Tyler Freeman CF CLE | 10% | 22% | 12% |
| Orelvis Martinez SS TOR | 10% | 18% | 8% |
| Jo Adell RF LAA | 8% | 17% | 9% |
| Gabriel Arias 3B CLE | 7% | 10% | 3% |
| Johan Rojas CF PHI | 6% | 12% | 6% |
| Austin Martin LF MIN | 6% | 11% | 5% |
| Matt Mervis DH CHC | 6% | 8% | 2% |
| Tommy Pham CF CHW | 4% | 5% | 1% |
| Hunter Goodman RF COL | 3% | 10% | 7% |
| Joey Bart C PIT | 3% | 5% | 2% |
| Abraham Toro-Hernandez 3B OAK | 3% | 4% | 1% |
| Addison Barger LF TOR | 3% | 4% | 1% |
| Miguel Sano 3B LAA | 2% | 8% | 6% |
| Trevor Larnach LF MIN | 2% | 6% | 4% |
| Ernie Clement 3B TOR | 2% | 4% | 2% |
| Richard Palacios RF TB | 2% | 4% | 2% |
| Mike Tauchman RF CHC | 1% | 5% | 4% |
Starters
Keaton Winn: Effective starter so far with a 3.54 ERA (3.44 xFIP), 7.4 K/9, 59% GB%, and 1.04 WHIP in 28 IP.
Trevor Rogers: Solid over five starts with an 8.2 K/9, 4.10 ERA (3.59 xFIP), and 1.52 WHIP (.353 BABIP). His BABIP may run a little high because of the 52% GB% but with fewer home runs (0.3 HR/9).
Jameson Taillon: I bought into Taillon last week after reading up on his new sweeper (22% SwStr%). And with his fastball down ~1 mph, its characteristics point to similar results. In his second start, he limited Houston to 1 ER over 5.2 IP with 4 K. He has some nice upside if/when he pushes the slider usage around 30%.
Mitchell Parker: Over 16 IP, he has a 1.69 ERA, 2.92 xFIP, and 7.9 K/9. His splitter is just eating up hitters (28% SwStr%). It’ll be the last week to roster in the few leagues he’s still available.
Erick Fedde 페디: He continues to be a solid option with a 10.3 K/9, 1.14 WHIP, and 2.73 ERA (3.30 xFIP). There is a huge disconnect between his 8.3% SwStr% and 27.3% K%. Normally, a pitcher’s strikeout rate is double their swinging-strike rate but in this instance, Fedde should only have a 16.6% K% (~6.0 K/9). Regression could be coming quickly for him.
Simeon Woods Richardson: In two starts, he’s been solid with a 9 K/9, 2.45 ERA (3.56 xFIP), and 1.00 WHIP. His fastball velocity is up about 3 mph compared to last season (90.6 mph to 93.2 mph). Additionally, he’s leaned into his slider (14% to 28% usage, 15% SwStr%) and brought back a curve (9% usage, 7% SwStr%). One major area of concern is his 29% GB% (39% in AAA). So far he hasn’t allowed any home runs, but that trend won’t continue.
Albert Suárez 수아레즈: Suarez has been talented (0.00 ERA, 4.04 xFIP, 0.79 WHIP, 7.2 K/9) in his return to the majors, but I’m not sure of his role with John Means and Kyle Bradish returning from the IL. Maybe he’ll follow one of the guys coming back.
Landon Knack: A decent start to his career (3.27 ERA, 4.49 xFIP, 1.00 WHIP, and 7.4 K/9) with a 94-mph fastball (13% SwStr%), slider (10% SwStr%), change (13% SwStr%), and a useless curveball (0% SwStr%). The biggest question will be if he stays in the rotation once Walker Buehler returns from the IL.
Jake Irvin: His 4.55 ERA (66% LOB%, .333 BABIP) might scare off some managers but he’s been throwing better as seen from his 3.63 xFIP. He might even have some strikeout upside if he threw his cutter more (12% usage, 14% SwStr%).
Bryce Elder: His Sunday start will go a long way to setting his market. In his first start back, his fastball sat at 90 mph. He was able to accumulated 4 K in 6.2 IP with a 57% GB%. I watched the start against the Marlins and he was lucky as seen by his 4.62 xERA. I’ve never liked the low-strikeout, “lucky” ERA profile control artist. I’m sure I’ll have Elder ranked lower than others.
Ben Lively 라이블리: In two starts, Lively has thrown like an ace with a 2.38 ERA (2.63 xFIP), 11.1 K/9, and 0.79 WHIP. The strikeout numbers are surprising for an arm with a 90-mph fastball but it’s producing a 14% SwStr%. The pitch has a ton of “rise” as seen by his low 22% GB%. The only other pitch with a swinging strike rate over 13% is his curve (9% usage). I feel I’m low compared to the market but his profile is no one that normally succeeds.
JP Sears: While a 3.38 ERA is great, it should regress with his 5.36 xFIP. The xFIP is so high because of his low 5.4 K/9. He’s achieving the low strikeout rate while barely throwing his fastballs (43% usage, down ~1 mph). He could get destroyed by home runs once the weather heats up since his groundball rate is down at 29%.
Alec Marsh: On the IL with a bruised elbow. A .235 BABIP has kept his stats in check this season (1.01 WHIP, .235 BABIP, 2.70 ERA, 4.36 xFIP).
Tobias Myers: The 25-year-old righty was decent in his first start going 5 IP with 4 K and 1 ER. In AAA (15% SwStr%) and the majors (13% SwStr%), his 93-mph fastball was his only average or better weapon. His start Sunday against the Yankees will determine his demand.Even with a good game, his demand might be tepid with no prospect sources (MLB.com, BaseballHQ, BaseballAmerica) covering him during the preseason. Probably ranked too high on the unknown.
Ryan Feltner: I rarely recommend any of Colorado’s starters, but this is a dream match with the team’s best starter (3.70 xFIP, 10.7 K/9) facing Miami and Pittsburgh. One-week stream.
Trevor Williams: Williams will eventually start allowing home runs but his low-strikeout, low-walk approach is working for now. A low-4.00’s ERA talent who could be streamed in about a third of his starts.
Ryan Weathers: An 80.5% LOB% (71% career LOB%) has allowed him to have a 3.16 ERA. He continues to walk batters (4.2 BB/9, 39% Ball%). Additionally, he inefficient in getting batters out and has averaged just over 5.0 IP/GS this year.
Jonathan Cannon: In three starts so far, he continues to get lit up with 11 ER in 13.2 IP (.409 BABIP, 61% LOB%). His talent stats point to him being better (3.72 xFIP, 8.6 K/9, 2.6 BB/9). There is no need to rush out to roster as he works through a few things. He might have the tools to be decent with the right approach and players around him.
Bailey Falter: A .173 BABIP keeps his 3.33 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in check. His 4.47 xFIP and 6.0 K/9 point to subpar future results. Streamable in a quarter of his starts.
Slade Cecconi: SLADE struggled in 27 MLB innings last year with a 4.33 ERA (4.58 xFIP) and 6.7 K/9. In his first start back this year, he attacked hitters differently. His fastball usage was down from 59% to 44% while increasing his changeup (possibly a splitter) usage from 5% to 21%. None of that mattered since he posted a 3% SwStr% in his start against the Giants.
Michael Lorenzen: Struggling to find the plate (6.6 BB/9, 39% Ball%) but a .208 BABIP has kept his ERA down at 2.45. He’ll be unrosterabel in roto leagues if the walk rate continues.
Cole Irvin: Irvin projects to be a high-4.00’s ERA talent. Probably only streamable for Wins and could be on the way out with Means and Bradish coming off the IL within the week.
Taijuan Walker: Does Walker have many friends and family playing fantasy baseball on CBS? That is the only explanation I can find for him being rostered this high. More walks than strikeouts in his AAA rehab. Fastball velocity is down 2.5 mph. Ignore.
José Soriano: After seeming to have the walks (5.6 BB/9, 40% Ball%) under control (3 BB in first 10 IP), they are back in the last three starts (11 BB in 12.2 IP). He’s limited the damage by keeping the ball on the ground (56% GB%) and striking everyone out (13 K in the 11 IP).
Pitching Prospects
Cade Povich: In AAA, the 24-year-old lefty has a 1.03 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, and 13.7 K/9 in 26 IP.
Robert Gasser: In AAA, the 25-year-old lefty has a 2.25 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 11.3 K/9 in 4 IP.
Christian Scott: In AAA, the 25-year-old righty has a 3.48 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, and 14.8 K/9 in 20 IP.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Taijuan Walker SP PHI | 35% | 38% | 3% |
| Michael Lorenzen SP TEX | 29% | 36% | 7% |
| Ryan Weathers SP MIA | 28% | 36% | 8% |
| Erick Fedde SP CHW | 27% | 36% | 9% |
| Christian Scott P NYM | 27% | 29% | 2% |
| Keaton Winn SP SF | 23% | 42% | 19% |
| Trevor Rogers SP MIA | 23% | 34% | 11% |
| JP Sears SP OAK | 23% | 27% | 4% |
| Jameson Taillon SP CHC | 22% | 38% | 16% |
| Alec Marsh SP KC | 18% | 27% | 9% |
| Bryce Elder SP ATL | 16% | 41% | 25% |
| Jake Irvin SP WAS | 9% | 17% | 8% |
| Trevor Williams SP WAS | 9% | 15% | 6% |
| Jose Soriano SP LAA | 8% | 15% | 7% |
| Cade Povich SP BAL | 7% | 10% | 3% |
| Cole Irvin SP BAL | 7% | 9% | 2% |
| Landon Knack SP LAD | 6% | 10% | 4% |
| Robert Gasser SP MIL | 6% | 7% | 1% |
| Ryan Feltner | – | 6% | – |
| Mitchell Parker SP WAS | 4% | 45% | 41% |
| Bailey Falter SP PIT | 4% | 20% | 16% |
| Simeon Woods Richardson SP MIN | 4% | 9% | 5% |
| Ben Lively SP CLE | 3% | 10% | 7% |
| Albert Suarez SP BAL | 2% | 14% | 12% |
| Slade Cecconi SP ARI | 2% | 5% | 3% |
| Jonathan Cannon SP CHW | 2% | 3% | 1% |
| Tobias Myers RP MIL | 0% | 3% | 3% |
Relievers: Saves-based ranks
Jason Adam: Great reliever who seems to be the closer.
Joel Payamps: Good reliever who is sharing the closer’s job.
Hector Neris: Good reliever who is most likely the closer.
Justin Lawrence: Below-average reliever who is the closer.
Mark Leiter Jr.: Good reliever who is most likely the setup man but could be the closer.
Garrett Cleavinger: Decent reliever who could be sharing the closer’s role.
Reed Garrett: Good reliever who is the backup closer.
A.J. Minter: Great reliever who is the backup closer.
Fernando Cruz: Good reliever who is the backup closer
Yimi Garcia: Good reliever who is possibly the backup closer.
Hunter Gaddis: Now a great reliever who could be the backup closer.
Yency Almonte: OK reliever who is a few steps away from being the closer.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Minter RP ATL | 31% | 33% | 2% |
| Joel Payamps RP MIL | 29% | 42% | 13% |
| Jason Adam RP TB | 18% | 29% | 11% |
| Hector Neris RP CHC | 17% | 35% | 18% |
| Yimi Garcia RP TOR | 14% | 18% | 4% |
| Justin Lawrence RP COL | 8% | 9% | 1% |
| Hunter Gaddis RP CLE | 5% | 9% | 4% |
| Mark Leiter RP CHC | 4% | 10% | 6% |
| Fernando Cruz RP CIN | 3% | 5% | 2% |
| Reed Garrett RP NYM | 2% | 25% | 23% |
| Garrett Cleavinger RP TB | 1% | 7% | 6% |
| Yency Almonte RP CHC | 0% | 2% | 2% |
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Where would Danny Mendick rank on this list?
He’s there, use your Cntl-F
Ah, I see him now. It’s been captivating watching Mendick rise through the FA ranks this week. I’ve seen a few of his ABs and he’s been spraying it around the field consistently.
I went to watch challengers while watching Mendick bat.