FAAB & Waiver Wire Report (Week 3)

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.

Batters

José Caballero: He’s turning into a nice all-around player with some power (1 HR) and average (.341 AVG) but especially speed (5 SB).

Nelson Velázquez: There was a worry that the Royals would sit Velázquez when Salvador Perez needed to DH or play first base but it’s Hunter Renfroe sitting instead. So far, Velázquez has 2 HR and a .326 AVG on the season.

Brandon Marsh: While a 37% K% will drop down his batting average, he’s starting against some lefties and already has 4 HR on the season.

Jose Siri: A nice source of power (1 HR) and steals (6 SB) but his batting average (.256 AVG, .455 BABIP) could tank (38% K%).

Jurickson Profar: Playing while hitting .327/.431/.551 with 2 HR. Boring but useful.

Alex Kirilloff: With his strikeout rate down (25% to 13%), he’s a nice source of batting average (.324 AVG).

Blaze Alexander: Continues to start while hitting (.313/.389/.500, 2 HR, 1 SB). Ride the hot hand.

Edward Olivares: Started in five of the last six games while hitting 3 HR with a .314 AVG. The Pirates are giving him a chance to start and it’s paying off so far.

Colton Cowser: Strong-side platoon bat (career .819 OPS vs RHP, .350 OPS vs LHP) with five right-handed pitchers on the schedule next week.

Trey Lipscomb: The 24-year-old rookie has 4 SB on the season.

David Hamilton: He stole 59 bases last season and was promoted earlier this week. He already has one steal in the majors to go with a home run. The problem right now is getting on base (.267 OBP). There is a small chance he’s sitting against lefties. This ranking is entirely based on a high stolen base total.

Brett Baty: He has cut his walk rate from 28% to 19%. The strikeout rate drop with a good .395 BABIP has him with a .327 AVG and not much else. All of his Exit Velocity numbers are down for no reported reason.

Cavan Biggio: Continues to hit (.316 AVG, 1 HR, 1 SB) and has started in five straight games.

Charlie Blackmon: Leading off and hitting (.326/.396/.558), for now.

Orlando Arcia: Healthy shortstop with a bit of pop (17 HR in ’23).

Brenton Doyle: A few hame games has his batting average up (.314 AVG) while providing some power.

Gavin Sheets: Even with all the injuries, he remains a strong-side platoon bat (.324 OPS vs LHP, .743 OPS vs RHP) who is hitting a 1.158 OPS this season.

Joey Gallo: Gallo has his strikeout rate down 7.5% points and is still seeing his batting average drop from .177 to .167. Of his seven hits, there was only been one single (3 doubles, 3 HR).

Michael A. Taylor: Besides sitting for three games for an unknown reason, Taylor has been the team’s centerfielder.

Gio Urshela: Starts most of the time at third base while hitting (.353 AVG) for no power (.059 ISO).

Jared Walsh: Strong-side platoon bat without much power (.114 ISO, 1 HR) to start the season.

Josh Smith: Great in an OBP league (.447 OBP) but providing no power (.065 ISO) or speed (0 SB). Once the .370 BABIP stabilizes, he’ll be nearly unrosterable.

JJ Bleday: Cooled down and is producing like a below-average hitter (.639 OPS).

Connor Joe: Leads off against lefties, sometimes players against righties. He has cut his strikeout rate in half (23% to 11%) and has pushed his batting average over .300.

Oliver Dunn: Cooled off some (.250/.314/.406) after starting the season strong. He could be decent if playing every game (sat Thursday and Friday).

Will Brennan: Strong-side platoon bat who is hitting .235/.308/.235 with 2 SB on the season.

Ernie Clement: He has cooled down (.650 OPS, .222 BABIP). I’d rather add Biggio (above).

Catchers

Iván Herrera: Started in seven of the last eight games while hitting .290/.294/.581 with 3 HR on the season.

Reese McGuire: He’s stroking his way into the lineup (started in eight of 14 games) by hitting .267/.333/.500 with 2 HR. Ride that hot hand.

Elias Díaz: Hitting .342/.381/.421 with 1 HR. Streamable while at home.

Shea Langeliers: A three home run game helped his season stats (.783 OPS). Before that game, it was just a .570 OPS.

David Fry: He’s only started in four games. Ignore.

Hitting Prospects

Joey Loperfido: In AAA, the 24-year-old is hitting .320/.390/.880 with 9 HR and 1 SB.

James Wood: In AAA, the 21-year-old is hitting .441/.558/.794 with 2 HR and 2 SB.

Coby Mayo: In AAA, the 22-year-old is hitting .386/.444/.754 with 5 HR and 1 SB.

Heston Kjerstad: In AAA, the 25-year-old is hitting .396/.484/.868 with 7 HR.

CBS Batter Rostership Rates
Name Previous Roster% Current Roster% Difference
James Wood OF WAS 39% 42% 3%
Jose Siri CF TB 36% 45% 9%
Alex Kirilloff LF MIN 34% 46% 12%
Colton Cowser LF BAL 32% 69% 37%
Orlando Arcia SS ATL 30% 36% 6%
Jose Caballero SS TB 27% 49% 22%
Brandon Marsh LF PHI 27% 44% 17%
Coby Mayo 3B BAL 27% 29% 2%
Charlie Blackmon RF COL 26% 35% 9%
Connor Joe 1B PIT 25% 53% 28%
Brett Baty 3B NYM 24% 38% 14%
Elias Diaz C COL 24% 27% 3%
Shea Langeliers C OAK 23% 27% 4%
Heston Kjerstad DH BAL 21% 33% 12%
Nelson Velazquez DH KC 19% 26% 7%
Cavan Biggio 2B TOR 16% 18% 2%
J.J. Bleday CF OAK 14% 17% 3%
Trey Lipscomb 3B WAS 13% 15% 2%
Brenton Doyle CF COL 12% 17% 5%
Michael Taylor CF PIT 11% 15% 4%
David Fry DH CLE 10% 14% 4%
Edward Olivares RF PIT 9% 18% 9%
Jared Walsh 1B TEX 9% 13% 4%
Blaze Alexander SS ARI 6% 15% 9%
Gio Urshela 3B DET 6% 9% 3%
Joey Gallo 1B WAS 5% 7% 2%
Jurickson Profar LF SD 4% 23% 19%
Ivan Herrera C STL 4% 18% 14%
Joey Loperfido OF HOU 4% 7% 3%
Will Brennan RF CLE 4% 6% 2%
Oliver Dunn 3B MIL 2% 14% 12%
Gavin Sheets DH CHW 2% 10% 8%
Josh H. Smith 3B TEX 2% 9% 7%
Reese McGuire C BOS 1% 11% 10%
Ernie Clement 3B TOR 1% 3% 2%
David Hamilton SS BOS 0% 6% 6%

Starters

Ben Brown: After his horrible debut, he has been decent in his last two appearances (1.04 ERA, 3.13 xFIP, 10.4 K/9, 2.1 BB/9). He is just a two-pitch guy with a 97 mph fastball and a curve with a 25% SwStr%. Add while available.

Max Meyer: He’s attacking batters with a fastball (95 mph)-slider (17% SwStr%) combination but not getting many strikeouts (7.3 K/9). He’s found a way to keep runs off the board (1.69 ERA, 3.82 xFIP).

Spencer Turnbull: There are enough changes with Turnbull that I’m buying in. He’s leaning into his sweeper/slider with a 13% SwStr%. Even with a dud of a start on Saturday, he’s got his walks under control (3.1 BB/9). It’s not an elite profile but an arm to stream from the bench.

Martín Pérez: He’s riding the fine line of enough strikeouts (7.1 K/9) and groundballs (55% GB%) while limiting the walks (2.4 BB/9) to post a 3.68 xFIP. The groundballs are from a sinker with a 72% GB%. The key to him remaining productive is keeping the high groundball rate.

Graham Ashcraft: He’s been homer prone (2.3 HR/9), but decent otherwise (3.36 xFIP). He might just be someone to stream on the road.

Cody Bradford: Bradford has forced himself into the Rangers rotation. The 90-mph fastball misses bats (11%) with his changeup (15% SwStr%). I suspect he’ll end up a low-4.00’s ERA starter for the season.

Javier Assad: The left-on-base god (94% LOB%) has pushed up his strikeout rate to 9.8 K/9 (just an 8% SwStr%). His slider, the fourth most thrown pitch, has the only 10% or better swinging-strike rate. Do I think what he’s doing will continue … a slim chance. Will he still be on the wire for me to wait until it’s validated … nope. His profile is someone I’ll expect to miss on.

José Soriano: He’s allowed three home runs (53% GB%) in 10 IP to push his ERA up to 6.30. His xFIP is at 3.95 from an 8.1 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9. He’s moved forward with a 98.5 mph fastball (+0.8 mph). Additionally, he has added a splitter/change/curve that’s missing bats. There could be some upside if he quit throwing his fastballs as much (63% usage).

Steven Matz: While Matz has a 1.80 ERA, the strikeouts have disappeared (4.8 K/9, 9% SwStr%). His slider (13% SwStr%) and changeup (14% SwStr%) are missing bats but he’s throwing his “sinker” (45% GB%) almost 60% of the time (65% in his last start). There are obvious upsides and downside to rostering him.

Tyler Anderson: Anderson ranks ahead of Blackburn based on team context even though both haven’t allowed a run yet with a small strikeout rate. Anderson is getting there by limiting walks (1.9 BB/9) and generating flyballs for easy outs (38% GB%). Eventually, those flyballs will go for home runs. The other issue with Anderson is that he’s not striking anyone out (5.1 K/9).

Paul Blackburn: So far, he’s thrown 19 IP of shutout ball by keeping the ball on the ground (53% GB%) and limiting walks (1.4 BB/9). His 5.1 K/9 will eventually catch up with him but he could still be around a 4.00 ERA arm.

Alec Marsh: He’s not getting many strikeouts (5.4 K/9) and that caught up with him on Saturday with his ERA and xFIP jumping to 4.32. It’s tough to navigate what games to start low strikeout pitchers without hitting a few landmines.

José Buttó: The 26-year-old has been a decent pitcher for the last nine months. I would be 100% in but he must overcome two issues. First, his average fastball velocity is down 1.6 mph (93.8 to 92.2). The other is that he can’t find the strike zone (7 BB in 11 IP).

Dylan Dodd: His velo is up about 1 mph in AAA compared to the majors last season. He’s using the same arsenal (four-seam, slider, change, and cutter). I can’t find how the 26-year-old has improved from his 7.60 ERA (6.50 xFIP) in 34 IP last season.

Colin Rea: His average fastball velocity is down 1.6 mph dropping his strikeout rate to 4.1 K/9. And the home runs will come with a 33% GB%. Nothing is working right now.

Bryce Elder: Being added with the hope he’ll be added to the rotation. Has been decent in AAA with a 3.69 xFIP and 9.6 K/9. Of note, his four-seam fastball is sitting just under 90 mph in AAA. Last season, it averaged 93 mph.

Spencer Arrighetti: I’m not going to hold his debut against him but he doesn’t seem to have the traits of a good major league pitcher. He throws just a 92 mph fastball. Besides us with the slider (20% SwStr% in debut), none of the preseason publications graded his secondaries as plus. Most importantly, he can’t throw strikes with 10 BB in 11.1 IP so far.

Edward Cabrera: Even in AAA, Cabrera has a 5.7 BB/9. Ignorable until the walks are under control.

Ryan Weathers: He continues to walk batters with a 5.1 BB/9 (4.5 BB/9 last season). A 1.50 WHIP is a category killer. And he only has a 7.7 K/9. Pass.

AJ Smith-Shawver: The shape of his pitches will lead to flyballs (i.e. home runs) and he walks too many batters. The combination needs to be corrected before he should be rostered.

Joe Ross: Are we again going to get excited over Joe Ross? He throws the good slider (19% SwStr%) and nothing else.

Trevor Williams: A sub-90 mph fastball and a 4.4 BB/9. His 2.61 ERA (5.02 xFIP) isn’t going to last long.

Wade Miley: More walks than strikeouts in his first start. His fastball averaged just over 90 mph. Wait a few starts to see if he makes any improvements.

Michael Lorenzen: A career 4.50 ERA talent who may or may not be joining the Rangers rotation and who is struggling in AAA (6.35 ERA, 5.27 xFIP, 1.85 WHIP, 10.3 K/9, 7.2 BB/9). Ignorable.

Marco Gonzales: His fastball is up to 90.3 mph (super duper) and only has a 4.9 K/9 in 11 IP so far. Just an overall 6.5% SwStr%. His changeup (14% SwStr%) is the only pitch that misses bats and he’s barely throwing it (14% usage). The 2.45 ERA looks great but I’d bet on the 4.41 xFIP as his true talent.

Ryan Feltner: We are not at the point where rostering a Rockies pitcher is on the table.

Pitching Prospect

Christian Scott: In AAA, the 25-year-old has a 4.00 ERA (0.83 xFIP), 0.89 WHIP, and 19.0 K/9 in 9 IP.

Yariel Rodriguez: In AAA, the 27-year-old has a 0.00 ERA (2.99 xFIP), 0.63 WHIP, and 14.2 K/9 in 6 IP.

CBS Starter Rostership Rates
Name Previous Roster% Current Roster% Difference
Cody Bradford SP TEX 40% 80% 40%
Max Meyer SP MIA 39% 44% 5%
Graham Ashcraft SP CIN 35% 44% 9%
Edward Cabrera SP MIA 30% 36% 6%
Martin Perez SP PIT 27% 49% 22%
Javier Assad SP CHC 26% 49% 23%
Spencer Turnbull SP PHI 24% 63% 39%
A.J. Smith-Shawver SP ATL 19% 22% 3%
Paul Blackburn SP OAK 18% 39% 21%
Tyler Anderson SP LAA 17% 43% 26%
Michael Lorenzen SP TEX 17% 23% 6%
Alec Marsh SP KC 16% 19% 3%
Steven Matz SP STL 13% 18% 5%
Bryce Elder SP ATL 12% 17% 5%
Ryan Weathers SP MIA 12% 13% 1%
Christian Scott P NYM 10% 19% 9%
Ben Brown RP CHC 9% 12% 3%
Colin Rea SP MIL 8% 13% 5%
Wade Miley SP MIL 8% 10% 2%
Yariel Rodriguez SP TOR 4% 19% 15%
Marco Gonzales SP PIT 4% 6% 2%
Spencer Arrighetti SP HOU 2% 14% 12%
Trevor Williams SP WAS 2% 7% 5%
Jose Butto SP NYM 2% 6% 4%
Jose Soriano RP LAA 2% 5% 3%
Joe Ross SP MIL 1% 8% 7%
Ryan Feltner SP COL 1% 6% 5%
Dylan Dodd SP ATL 1% 3% 2%
Hunter Gaddis RP CLE 1% 3% 2%

Relievers: Saves-based ranks

James McArthur: Good reliever who is the closer.

Michael Kopech: Good reliever who is the closer.

Kirby Yates: Good reliever who could now be the closer.

Chad Green: Good reliever who is temporarily the closer.

Aroldis Chapman: Great reliever who is the backup closer.

Jeff Hoffman: Great reliever who is the backup closer.

JoJo Romero: Great reliever who might be the backup closer.

David Robertson: OK reliever who could possibly be the closer.

Daniel Hudson: Good reliever who is the backup closer.

Shelby Miller: Good reliever who is a couple of steps away from closing.

Hunter Gaddis: Might be a great pitcher who is a couple of steps away from closer.

Andrew Kittredge: OK reliever who is a couple of steps away from closing.

Justin Slaten: Good reliever who is a couple of steps away from closing.

Cade Smith: An OK middle reliever who fantasy managers keep adding for some bizarre reason.

Nick Sandlin: Below-average reliever who is being added for no good reason.

CBS Reliever Rostership Rates
Name Previous Roster% Current Roster% Difference
Michael Kopech RP CHW 36% 41% 5%
Daniel Hudson RP LAD 32% 34% 2%
Aroldis Chapman RP PIT 28% 36% 8%
David Robertson RP TEX 28% 34% 6%
James McArthur RP KC 12% 31% 19%
Shelby Miller RP DET 11% 18% 7%
Jeff Hoffman RP PHI 11% 14% 3%
Chad Green RP TOR 5% 9% 4%
Andrew Kittredge RP STL 4% 6% 2%
Kirby Yates RP TEX 3% 8% 5%
Cade Smith RP CLE 2% 4% 2%
Justin Slaten RP BOS 2% 5% 3%
JoJo Romero RP STL 1% 5% 4%
Nick Sandlin RP CLE 1% 3% 2%





Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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Kevin
1 month ago

Along the lines of Profar (boring but useful) would Lamonte Wade e a good option in a very deep league? or the (April) underperforming Wilmer Flores?

Corey2member
1 month ago
Reply to  Kevin

Can’t be that deep if Wade is available, Wade is better than Profar.