FAAB & Waiver Wire Report (Week 11)

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.

Batters

Jesse Winker: An unsuspecting source of stolen bases with 11 this season and a total up to that point in his career. The steals, a .261 AVG, and 6 HR make him a solid roster option.

Blake Perkins: With 15 starts in the last 16 games, he’s been productive across the board (5 HR, 6 SB, .260 AVG).

Alec Burleson: Providing power (8 HR) and batting average (.278 AVG).

Mark Vientos: The Mets third base job is his while hitting .333/.392/.621 with 5 HR.

Jose Miranda: Hitting .280/.313/.465 with 20 straight starts.

Heliot Ramos: Sharting his way to 5 HR and a .320 AVG (.448 BABIP).

Matt Vierling: Hitting in the top third of the lineup with a .282 AVG and 7 HR.

Nelson Velázquez: While he sits when Perez is the DH, he has hit 8 HR but with a .216 AVG.

Otto Lopez: Starting and slowly moving up the lineup while hitting .295/.324/.421 with 3 HR and 4 SB.

Andrew McCutchen: Leading off while hitting .228/.332/.378 with 8 HR.

Edmundo Sosa: Solid Tree Turner replacement (.294/.357/.539, 4 HR, 2 SB) and is getting some outfield reps.

Miguel Andujar: In 50 PA, he hasn’t walked, but does have a .286 AVG with 2 HR. He is going with a heavy groundball approach (-1 LA, 61% GB%).

Max Schuemann: Batting ninth every game while hitting a respectable .256/.324/.368 with 3 HR and 3 SB.

Spencer Horwitz: Made his 2024 debut on Saturday while playing second base. In AAA this season, he was hitting .335/.456/.514 with 4 HR and 3 SB.

Corey Julks: Starting and hitting in the top third of the lineup. So far this season, he is hitting .293/.369/.483 with 2 HR and 2 SB.

Daniel Schneemann: It’s tough right now to figure out his playing time. He’s started in three of four games while sitting against a lefty. He’s played outfield, shortstop, and second base so far. He’s hitting in the bottom third of the lineup. In AAA, he hit .294/.428/.556 with 10 HR and 4 SB. So far in the majors, he’s hitting a 1.323 OPS.

Justyn-Henry Malloy: Four starts at DH since being promoted while hitting .182/.308/.455 with 1 HR. Opposing pitchers have only thrown him 40% fastballs leading to a 31% K%.

Connor Norby: Three starts in five games while hitting .200/.200/.500. I wish I was more confident about his playing time and will put him right ahead of the platoon bats.

Luke Raley: Back to being a strong-side platoon bat with five righties on the schedule next week.

Joc Pederson: Decent streamer against righties. With only four righties on the schedule for next week, he’s probably a sit.

David Hamilton and Enmanuel Valdez: Strong-side platoon bats with just four righties on the schedule next week.

David Dahl: He lives as Brandon Marsh’s replacement. While he was hitting .340/.416/.660 in 166 AAA plate appearances, his fantasy value will come down to playing time. I suspect Dahl will be demoted once Marsh comes off the IL.

Brendan Rodgers: Hamstring injury has him on the bench right now.

Catchers

Patrick Bailey: Playing two-thirds of the time while hitting .276/.333/.425 with 4 HR and 2 SB this season.

Henry Davis: Since returning from the minors, he has a 64% K%.

Batter IL Stashes

Noelvi Marte: He can start rehab appearances on June 11 and be reinstated from his suspension on June 27th.

CBS Batter Rostership Rates
Name Previous Roster% Current Roster% Change
Jesse Winker LF  WAS 40% 53% 13%
Alec Burleson DH  STL 38% 41% 3%
Matt Vierling 3B  DET 37% 64% 27%
Noelvi Marte 3B  CIN 35% 46% 11%
Joc Pederson DH  ARI 30% 33% 3%
Patrick Bailey C  SF 29% 31% 2%
Luke Raley LF  SEA 20% 25% 5%
Mark Vientos 3B  NYM 18% 43% 25%
Henry Davis C  PIT 17% 22% 5%
Brendan Rodgers 2B  COL 15% 19% 4%
Edmundo Sosa SS  PHI 15% 17% 2%
Nelson Velazquez DH  KC 14% 16% 2%
Jose Miranda 3B  MIN 11% 17% 6%
Blake Perkins CF  MIL 11% 13% 2%
Miguel Andujar LF  OAK 10% 39% 29%
David Hamilton SS  BOS 9% 15% 6%
Connor Norby 2B  BAL 8% 17% 9%
Andrew McCutchen DH  PIT 8% 11% 3%
Heliot Ramos LF  SF 7% 33% 26%
Otto Lopez 2B  MIA 6% 7% 1%
Justyn-Henry Malloy 3B  DET 5% 9% 4%
Max Schuemann SS  OAK 3% 5% 2%
Enmanuel Valdez 2B  BOS 3% 4% 1%
Corey Julks RF  CHW 2% 3% 1%
Spencer Horwitz 1B  TOR 1% 2% 1%
David Dahl RF  PHI 0% 2% 2%
Daniel Schneemann 2B  CLE 0% 1% 1%

Starting Pitchers

Tylor Megill: So far, so good with a 3.00 ERA (4.09 xFIP), 1.24 WHIP, and 10.3 K/9 in 21 IP. Average fastball velocity is up. Leaning away from his fastball. New splitter (27% SwStr%). He should be close to 100% rostered.

Jake Irvin: Example #4595 of why dropping your walk rate (4.0 BB/9 to 1.7 BB/9) can save a career. If he can keep the walks under control, he’s a solid mid-3.00 ERA talent.

Mitchell Parker: He seems to be grooving into a 3.50 to 3.75 ERA pitcher who can be started against any opponent.

José Soriano: While his 7.7 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 aren’t elite, his 60% GB% stands out. A solid high-3.00 ERA talent.

Hurston Waldrep: Will be making his debut on Sunday. Across two minor-league levels, the 22-year-old has a 3.09 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, and 9.6 K/9 in 55 IP. Add now and see how his debut goes. I’m a little worried that walks will be an issue.

Albert Suarez: While he is averaging 4.9 IP per start, his stats as a starter are must roster (2.15 ERA, 3.80 xFIP, 8.3 K/9, 1.13 WHIP).

Patrick Sandoval: On the season, Sandoval has 10 decent starts and three blowups. Let’s see if you can spot those blowups.

While his ERA estimators and projections point to a sub-4.00 ERA pitcher, he walks a few too many batters (3.8 BB/9, 1.43 WHIP).

Simeon Woods Richardson: Woods Richardson should be rostered but probably a 50% streamer depending on the league depth. His ERA estimators are around 4.00 and that’s a fine valuation of him while he has a 3.05 ERA at the moment. I suspect he sees some home run regression (0.8 HR/9, 38% GB%) to his projection of 1.2 HR/9.

Cade Povich: A rough debut where he walked more batters (4) than he struck out (2) allowing 6 ER in 5 IP. He destroyed AAA with a 3.18 ERA (3.89 xFIP), 1.11 WHIP, and 11.9 K/9. It’s unclear if/when he’ll start again in the majors. He hasn’t been demoted yet, so he might get another shot. His relatively new cutter seems to be his best offering with a 17% SwStr% in AAA and 19% SwStr% in the majors.

David Peterson: I had hope for Peterson and then he lays a couple of duds with just 5 K in 11 IP (5.02 xFIP). He still needs to be rostered but he’s far from a must-start.

Luis Medina: In his first major league start this season, Medina was great with 0 ER, 6 K, and 2 BB in 5.2 IP. In previous seasons, the 25-year-old struggled with walks. His 34% Ball% points to a 2.3 BB/9 so there is a sign he the walks under control. He has a nice pitch mix of 96-mph four-seamer, sinker (67% GB%), slider (22% SwStr%), and curve (13% SwStr%).

Miles Mikolas: Home runs have been an issue (4.52 FIP, 1.5 HR/9) but he has been decent since May 12 (3.72 ERA, 3.87 xFIP, 6.5 K/9, and 1.00 WHIP). I can’t find any obvious changes. Streaming option.

JP Sears: He’s been able to generate weak contact so far (.239 BABIP, 1.0 HR) to help him to a 3.93 ERA (4.74 xFIP). I’m worried the results could worsen for him with his fastball velocity down over 1.5 mph.

Adam Mazur: In Mazur’s debut, he posted mixed results with 2 K, 4 BB, and 1 ER over 6 IP. He attacked hitters with a 95-mph fastball, slider (14% SwStr%), and change (17% SwStr%). Across two minor league levels, the 23-year-old posted a 3.86 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 8.8 K/9 over 51 IP. He needs to shake off the nerves and find the plate in his next start (35% Zone%).

Andrew Heaney: With his lowest home run rate since 2020 (1.3 HR/9), he’s keeping his 3.99 ERA and similar ERA estimators in check. With the weather heating up, his home run rate should increase also. Stream with caution.

Cody Poteet: While he’s not striking out many batters (6.3 K/9), a .209 BABIP has led to a 0.96 WHIP and 1.72 ERA. He should get a few more starts until Cole returns from the IL.

Spencer Turnbull: More news of Turnbull staying in the bullpen. One of the best starting pitcher stashes and can be streamed in an emergency.

Joey Estes: I just wrote up Estes for Big Kid Adds and liked what I saw even with a perplexing profile. Roster and bench.

Spencer Arrighetti: While the 24-year-old, is generating strikeouts, he’s allowing too many walks (5.1 BB/9) and there are no signs of improvement (5.8 BB/9 for his last three starts). His 1.67 WHIP is unrosterable and will just drag down the category. Points-league only play.

Mitch Spence: Remember he split time between starting (4.36 xFIP) and relieving (3.30 xFIP). The combination looks great but a 4.50 ERA talent is not worth rostering. Other arms are worth monitoring over him.

Bailey Falter: I guess his 3.69 ERA has some fantasy manager’s attention but nothing points to a rosterable pitcher with a sub-6.0 K/9 and 1.5 HR/9.

Michael Lorenzen: A .244 BABIP (career .281 BABIP) keeps his 3.05 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in check. They will regress and I would not want him near my roster. His 4.3 BB/9 makes him unrosterable in a league that counts WHIP. His ERA estimators value him as a mid to high-4.00’s ERA. Sounds right.

Ryne Nelson: I’m not sure where the demand is being generated, but he’s been horrible this season and bad teams would have no issues lighting him up. Ignore.

Blake Walston: A 5.1 BB/9 in AAA. A 6.4 BB/9 in the majors. His 2.84 ERA is about to explode (5.91 xFIP). Unrosterable until the walks come down.

Daniel Lynch IV: He’s a 5.00 ERA talent being rostered for some bizarre reason.

Pitching Prospect

Carlos F. Rodriguez: In AAA, the 22-year-old posted a 5.17 ERA (5.12 xFIP), 1.29 WHIP, and 9.5 K/9. He is supposed to be Milwaukee’s Tuesday starter.

Starting Pitcher IL Stashes

Robbie Ray: Already had his first rehab start.

Clayton Kershaw: Starting his rehab assignment within the week.

Jeffrey Springs: One known setback and struggling in his first appearances.

CBS Starter Rostership Rates
Name Previous Roster% Current Roster% Change
Clayton Kershaw SP  LAD 37% 44% 7%
Max Meyer SP  MIA 34% 36% 2%
Mitchell Parker SP  WAS 34% 35% 1%
Michael Lorenzen SP  TEX 33% 43% 10%
Simeon Woods Richardson SP  MIN 31% 32% 1%
Patrick Sandoval SP  LAA 31% 32% 1%
Tylor Megill SP  NYM 29% 47% 18%
JP Sears SP  OAK 28% 32% 4%
Jeffrey Springs SP  TB 27% 30% 3%
Spencer Turnbull RP  PHI 27% 29% 2%
Miles Mikolas SP  STL 25% 28% 3%
Jose Soriano SP  LAA 24% 30% 6%
Jake Irvin SP  WAS 22% 38% 16%
Bailey Falter SP  PIT 22% 28% 6%
Robbie Ray SP  SF 22% 26% 4%
Cade Povich SP  BAL 20% 24% 4%
Andrew Heaney SP  TEX 18% 20% 2%
Hurston Waldrep SP  ATL 15% 18% 3%
Spencer Arrighetti SP  HOU 11% 23% 12%
Albert Suarez RP  BAL 9% 17% 8%
Ryne Nelson SP  ARI 8% 10% 2%
David Peterson SP  NYM 5% 7% 2%
Joey Estes SP  OAK 4% 11% 7%
Mitch Spence RP  OAK 4% 8% 4%
Blake Walston RP  ARI 4% 6% 2%
Cody Poteet SP  NYY 4% 8% 4%
Adam Mazur SP  SD 3% 13% 10%
Luis Medina SP  OAK 2% 6% 4%
Daniel Lynch SP  KC 2% 4% 2%
Carlos Rodriguez SP  MIL 2% 3% 1%

Relievers: Saves-based ranks.

Jeff Hoffman: Good reliever who is sharing the closer’s role.

Yimi García: Good reliever who is temporarily the closer.

Jalen Beeks: Below-average reliever who is the closer.

Ryne Stanek: Good reliever who stepped in as the closer for a few games.

Jeremiah Estrada: Great reliever who is the backup closer.

Fernando Cruz: Good reliever who is the backup closer.

Bryan Hudson: Good reliever who is the backup closer.

Cade Smith: Good reliever who is a couple of steps away from closing.

CBS Reliever Rostership Rates
Name Previous Roster% Current Roster% Change
Jeff Hoffman RP  PHI 29% 33% 4%
Jeremiah Estrada RP  SD 22% 29% 7%
Yimi Garcia RP  TOR 19% 39% 20%
Bryan Hudson RP  MIL 13% 17% 4%
Jalen Beeks RP  COL 13% 14% 1%
Cade Smith RP  CLE 8% 10% 2%
Fernando Cruz RP  CIN 5% 8% 3%
Ryne Stanek RP  SEA 3% 10% 7%





Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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Sculpin
7 days ago

Colton Cowser, Michael Busch and Heliot Ramos all burst on the scene this year with OPS’s in the stratosphere. All three were first round draft picks. Cowser graduated as a 45FV prospect, Busch as a 50FV, and Ramos as a 35+FV. Looking under the hood, though, we find a study in contrasts.

Cowser does great against heat and breaking pitches but struggles badly against offspeed pitches. And sure enough his fastball rate has declined and so have his numbers, even though his statcast page remains mostly red.

Busch is all over the map. His biggest problem is his strikeout rate, but he is one of the best hitters in baseball on contact (.468 xwOBAcon, .338 xwOBA). He is hitting better now, but his recent decline coincided with big drops in exit velocity and hard-hit rate, both of which are now well below average and frankly quite surprising.

Ramos’ numbers tell a different story. He is crushing every type of pitch right now. His swing looks wicked good. His statcast numbers are still preliminary but elite.