FAAB Projections for Week 11
I thought some weeks were boring but this week may take the cake. Some interesting rookie starters like Devin Smeltzer and Zach Plesac are available but it’s a whole lot of blah.
Again, here are the parameters for the values.
- The ownership rates are from CBS since they have some quickdraw waiver wire leagues where players can be picked up at any time.
- The FAAB estimates are based on the 2018 15-team mixed NFBC leagues which used a $1000 FAAB budget. Owners are going to need to convert these values to their own league.
- The ownership values were taken from Saturday and lots can happen in between when they publish and FAAB bids run.
- Only players owned in 50% or fewer of CBS leagues are examined.
| Name | Previous Ownership% | Current Ownership% | Change% | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Plesac SP | CLE | 0% | 11% | 11% | $24 |
| Genesis Cabrera SP | STL | 0% | 6% | 6% | $21 |
| Shawn Armstrong RP | BAL | 0% | 4% | 4% | $35 |
| Devin Smeltzer SP | MIN | 1% | 26% | 25% | $43 |
| Tommy Milone SP | SEA | 1% | 7% | 6% | $21 |
| Ryan Weber RP | BOS | 2% | 8% | 6% | $21 |
| Ariel Jurado SP | TEX | 2% | 4% | 2% | $20 |
| Dinelson Lamet SP | SD | 8% | 10% | 2% | $20 |
| Jon Duplantier SP | ARI | 10% | 16% | 6% | $21 |
| Zack Britton RP | NYY | 14% | 17% | 3% | $35 |
| Jose Urena SP | MIA | 17% | 26% | 9% | $24 |
| Brendan McKay SP | TB | 17% | 20% | 3% | $21 |
| Ryan Yarbrough RP | TB | 18% | 33% | 15% | $30 |
| Scott Oberg RP | COL | 20% | 31% | 11% | $47 |
| Mitch Keller SP | PIT | 20% | 28% | 8% | $24 |
| Marcus Walden RP | BOS | 21% | 28% | 7% | $41 |
| Eric Lauer SP | SD | 24% | 41% | 17% | $34 |
| Dylan Bundy SP | BAL | 24% | 30% | 6% | $23 |
| Jake Junis SP | KC | 25% | 29% | 4% | $22 |
| Dakota Hudson RP | STL | 27% | 32% | 5% | $23 |
| Ty Buttrey RP | LAA | 27% | 29% | 2% | $37 |
| Ryan Pressly RP | HOU | 28% | 31% | 3% | $38 |
| Nick Pivetta SP | PHI | 30% | 47% | 17% | $36 |
| Trevor Richards SP | MIA | 30% | 38% | 8% | $26 |
| Alex Reyes SP | STL | 32% | 48% | 16% | $35 |
| Sergio Romo RP | MIA | 33% | 42% | 9% | $47 |
| Shawn Kelley RP | TEX | 33% | 39% | 6% | $43 |
| Casey Mize SP | DET | 33% | 35% | 2% | $23 |
| Tanner Roark SP | CIN | 42% | 47% | 5% | $26 |
| Pedro Strop RP | CHC | 44% | 47% | 3% | $44 |
| Michael Pineda SP | MIN | 48% | 50% | 2% | $26 |
● The soft-tossing Devin Smeltzer gets the nod as the most desired pitcher. On Tuesday, he threw six shutout innings, striking out seven batters, and walking no one.
● Tommy Milone is almost a perfect clone of Smeltzer and will go for half the cost. Milone has added a slider which has become a great compliment to his change. His sub-90 mph fastball will continue to get hit around.
● Zach Plesac allowed one run in over five innings of work and his final price will be heavily influenced by his Sunday results.
● Closer rankings for the relievers listed.
- Sergio Romo
- Pedro Stroop
- Shawn Kelley
- Shawn Armstrong
- Ty Buttrey
- Scott Ohberg
- Ryan Pressly
- Marcus Walden
- Zach Britton
● Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrell are must-adds if available.
| Name | Previous Ownership% | Current Ownership% | Change% | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Yastrzemski RF | SF | 0% | 3% | 3% | $22 |
| Cesar Puello LF | LAA | 0% | 3% | 3% | $22 |
| Matt Wieters C | STL | 1% | 5% | 4% | $22 |
| Harold Ramirez RF | MIA | 2% | 8% | 6% | $24 |
| Hanser Alberto SS | BAL | 3% | 10% | 7% | $26 |
| Will Smith C | LAD | 3% | 8% | 5% | $23 |
| Elias Diaz C | PIT | 4% | 7% | 3% | $22 |
| Keon Broxton CF | BAL | 4% | 7% | 3% | $22 |
| Mark Canha CF | OAK | 5% | 10% | 5% | $24 |
| Jake Marisnick CF | HOU | 5% | 9% | 4% | $23 |
| Jose Iglesias SS | CIN | 6% | 9% | 3% | $23 |
| Addison Russell SS | CHC | 8% | 16% | 8% | $28 |
| Bryan Reynolds CF | PIT | 9% | 27% | 18% | $51 |
| Carson Kelly C | ARI | 10% | 17% | 7% | $28 |
| Tony Wolters C | COL | 10% | 14% | 4% | $24 |
| Lourdes Gurriel SS | TOR | 15% | 46% | 31% | $111 |
| Albert Almora CF | CHC | 16% | 24% | 8% | $32 |
| Renato Nunez 3B | BAL | 18% | 42% | 24% | $80 |
| Nick Ahmed SS | ARI | 22% | 26% | 4% | $30 |
| Howie Kendrick 2B | WAS | 26% | 38% | 12% | $47 |
| Kevin Kiermaier CF | TB | 26% | 32% | 6% | $35 |
| Oscar Mercado CF | CLE | 29% | 39% | 10% | $45 |
| Scott Kingery SS | PHI | 30% | 36% | 6% | $38 |
| Kyle Seager 3B | SEA | 31% | 41% | 10% | $47 |
| David Fletcher 2B | LAA | 39% | 52% | 13% | $63 |
| Brett Gardner LF | NYY | 39% | 43% | 4% | $43 |
| Kyle Tucker LF | HOU | 41% | 44% | 3% | $44 |
| Avisail Garcia RF | TB | 42% | 54% | 12% | $64 |
| Jorge Alfaro C | MIA | 42% | 49% | 7% | $52 |
| Derek Dietrich LF | CIN | 43% | 78% | 35% | $174 |
| Cavan Biggio 2B | TOR | 43% | 57% | 14% | $71 |
| Mallex Smith CF | SEA | 46% | 50% | 4% | $50 |
| Hunter Renfroe LF | SD | 47% | 60% | 13% | $73 |
● The potential wallet busters this week are two players, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Renato Nunez, who have been available for weeks. Both of them have busted out recently. Since being recalled from the minors, Gurriel has posted a 1.378 OPS. Since May 20th, Nunez has a 1.419 OPS with seven homers. If either of one is available, they will likely fetch a nice price.
● Bryan Reynolds is a must-own in all formats at this point.
● Cesar Puello has slashed .545/.583/1.091 in two games. If 28-year-old rookie keeps it up, he could cost a decent amount to a desperate owner.
● At this point, Bryan Reynolds is a must own.
● Mike Yastrzemski is another 28-year-old who loves the new Happy Fun Ball while hitting .273/.360/.545 so far this season.
● Keon Broxton’s trade to Baltimore may really help his fantasy value as it did with Jonathan Villar last season.
| Name | Avg Bid | Count (38 leagues) |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Oberg | $55 | 38 |
| Cavan Biggio | $131 | 38 |
| Kevin Cron | $69 | 37 |
| Keon Broxton | $32 | 35 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | $73 | 35 |
| Ryan Yarbrough | $25 | 30 |
| Marcus Walden | $34 | 29 |
| Matt Adams | $15 | 28 |
| Mark Canha | $20 | 22 |
| Luis Rengifo | $20 | 21 |
| Alex Reyes | $26 | 20 |
| Renato Nunez | $35 | 18 |
| Hanser Alberto | $5 | 16 |
| Daniel Ponce de Leon | $11 | 15 |
| Jake Marisnick | $20 | 15 |
| Carson Kelly | $5 | 14 |
| JaCoby Jones | $15 | 14 |
| Harold Ramirez | $23 | 14 |
| Elias Diaz | $12 | 13 |
| Garrett Cooper | $10 | 13 |
| Brad Keller | $13 | 13 |
| Tony Wolters | $8 | 13 |
| Sean Newcomb | $22 | 12 |
| Jackie Bradley Jr. | $51 | 12 |
| Ryan Weber | $9 | 11 |
| Daniel Norris | $7 | 11 |
| J.D. Davis | $15 | 11 |
| Chris Iannetta | $5 | 10 |
| Albert Almora Jr. | $24 | 10 |
| Tommy Milone | $6 | 10 |
| Roberto Perez | $6 | 9 |
| Julio Urias | $28 | 9 |
| Josh Naylor | $15 | 9 |
| Luis Urias | $13 | 9 |
| John Means | $14 | 8 |
| Eric Thames | $15 | 8 |
| Tyler Chatwood | $19 | 8 |
| Carlos Gomez | $8 | 8 |
| Cal Quantrill | $13 | 8 |
| Austin Hedges | $17 | 8 |
| Hunter Strickland | $18 | 8 |
| Trevor Cahill | $8 | 7 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | $20 | 7 |
| Kyle Seager | $42 | 7 |
| Lou Trivino | $7 | 7 |
| Jose Urena | $13 | 7 |
| Charlie Tilson | $17 | 7 |
| Daniel Mengden | $17 | 7 |
| Mike Fiers | $18 | 7 |
| Colin Moran | $7 | 7 |
| Logan Forsythe | $10 | 6 |
| Willy Adames | $27 | 6 |
| Derek Fisher | $13 | 6 |
| Brian Anderson | $33 | 6 |
| Ian Kennedy | $10 | 6 |
| Ryan Brasier | $13 | 6 |
| Mitch Garver | $27 | 6 |
| Mike Zunino | $5 | 6 |
| Jose Iglesias | $9 | 6 |
| Jon Duplantier | $14 | 6 |
| Tim Beckham | $29 | 6 |
| Rowdy Tellez | $30 | 6 |
| Jakob Junis | $26 | 5 |
| Anibal Sanchez | $7 | 5 |
| Jason Heyward | $20 | 5 |
| Jeff Samardzija | $61 | 5 |
| Pedro Strop | $43 | 5 |
| Pedro Severino | $2 | 5 |
| Eric Lauer | $23 | 5 |
| Chase Anderson | $13 | 5 |
| Ji-Man Choi | $16 | 5 |
| Andrew Cashner | $3 | 5 |
| Bryan Reynolds | $21 | 5 |
| Aaron Sanchez | $45 | 5 |
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
What is so obviously all-formats must-own about Bryan Reynolds? (No explanation given in either one of the dueling plugs.) Much like a hot Nunez (whose skill profile is utterly common in MLB – all power no hit & just enough HRs to be playable), is there no room to be skeptical of the underlying skills? Is he so amazingly good that there is just no need to even say why (twice)? From the admittedly high horse on which I’m perched, Reynolds looks kinda like a hot just-a-guy who plays in a pitchers park and has had a few good weeks. I’m open to be persuaded to buy in but just saying “do it” isn’t moving my needle to tell you the truth . I don’t actually know everything despite what I tell people at the bar so feel free to educate me.
Well, he has mashed in near a qualifying amount of at bats with a wRC+ of 160. If you filter for 130 plate appearances he has the 3rd highest batting average, and a wRC higher than Jorge Polanco. He was mashing in the minors as well, as at the very early point in the season when he was called up he was leading his league in HRs as well. By all accounts he is an average defender, and a switch hitter with no discernible splits so he shouldn’t get platooned. He is only 24 and hit a fair amount of doubles in the minors. A power breakout with tightened balls/ getting older isn’t something that seems too far fetched. Tbf I might be biased as I own him in all my NFBC main leagues, but I have also watched more than 75% of his at bats and he never looks over matched. The babip is going to come down obviously, but if you look at his spray chart he isn’t someone you can shift on, and his average EV is elite, right next to Yandy Diaz.
The projections have him somewhere around average bat, moving forward. They already taken into account his minor league numbers. Remove the 2019 minor league #s (already in the projections), and regress the hot start considerably for outcome-based metrics, and I don’t see much of a reason to like him over a number of other players.
This kind of evaluation is exactly the situation where we should rely on projections to beat prognostication.