FAAB Frenzy and Waivers Wild: Week 27

Every Monday, this column will break down the most popular waiver wire and free agent acquisitions from the weekend. I dig into the top adds on the ever-popular Fantrax and in the NFBC Online Championship (OC), a national mid-stakes contest with 240 total leagues of 12 and a six-figure grand prize. Reviewing player adds between the two should provide us with a well-rounded perspective and barometer of the fantasy baseball marketplace.

Week 26 Overview

Hitters

The San Diego Padres took advantage of their four-game series with the Rockies at Coors Field and a home set with the Marlins, scoring 51 runs, 12 more than any other team. Fernando Tatis Jr. (along with Brandon Lowe and Pete Crow-Armstrong) led the way with a week-high four dingers. Last week’s streamers turned out to be dynamite: Jake Cronenworth (.464-8-2-8-2), Dustin Harris (.379-5-0-7-2) and Samad Taylor (.556-6-1-7-1) really stepped up, particularly Taylor for my competitive Main Event squad that gained two category points in batting average last week. Rake Cronenworth was true to his nickname from several years ago. He led all Major League hitters with 13 hits. The Brewers swiped a league-high 12 bags last week: four each for Jackson Chourio and rookie Cooper Pratt. Tampa’s Chandler Simpson led all runners with five swipes, finally catching Washington’s Nasim Nuñez for the MLB lead with 46. Expect Simpson to finish with 50+ and win the stolen base crown.

Pitchers

Of the 29 two-start pitchers excluding Pirates opener Lake Bachar, three earned two wins: Tarik Skubal, Sean Burke and David Peterson. Houston’s Hunter Brown had an outstanding two-step (10 IP – 5 H – 1 ER – 5 K – 20 K) and those 20 punchouts led all pitchers for the week. Gavin Williams punched out 16 in 12 innings and is back atop the AL lead in strikeouts with 244. Dylan Cease (239) may not make his final start of the season and Cam Schlittler (234) is unlikely to catch Williams as both have one start remaining. It’s very possible that Williams catches and passes Jacob Misiorowski (247) for the Major League lead. The Miz pitched three innings in his weekend start and might be limited for his final one.

Tampa’s Bryan Baker was the first reliever to reach 40 saves this season. It’s possible that Cade Smith (39), Riley O’Brien (38) and Mason Miller (37) join Baker. The last time there were three closers with 40 or more saves was in 2019: Edwin Díaz (57), Wade Davis (43), and Craig Kimbrel (42). Shout out to folks who drafted O’Brien late, and/or picked up Baker, Louis Varland or Jacob Latz off waivers and didn’t have to worry about the saves category all season.

Week 27 Most Added Players: NFBC Main Event, NFBC OC, and Fantrax

It’s the last hurrah for managers with FAB dollars left, hoping to get the best bang for the buck and for variance to lean their way and tip them into league titles. As is usually the case in the final week, we hope to optimize our pitching rotations and hitters in hitter-friendly ballparks against bad pitching. It was odd seeing Shohei Ohtani available in several leagues, and perhaps fortuitous as he should be activated this week and start a few games. Ohtani was acquired in 26 OCs for an AWB of $17. In Main Events, there were 12 shares available and they went for a reasonable $12 a pop. I scooped up a rare Ohtani share in an OC for $2, winning a tiebreaker over the team in 1st place in that league. Andy Pages will be activated on Tuesday, which should push Tommy Edman back to second base. Pages had been out since August 21, but was producing at an exciting clip before the injury — .272 – 72 R – 21 HR – 80 RBI – 12 SB in 550 PA. Managers who acquired him are hoping that he dusts the cobwebs back off and gets right into the swing of things, with all the marbles on the line.

Pitchers were the most popular targets, specifically two-steppers, as we chase wins and strikeouts, hoping the Ratio Monster doesn’t eat our leads in ERA and WHIP. JR Ritchie and Daniel Lynch IV were the most added starters who we expect two starts from this week. Ritchie’s MLB debut back in April came with great promise, but walks haunted him greatly, which led to trips back to Triple-A to refine his craft and some bulk inning relief work when he returned to Atlanta in July. Ritchie was recently promoted again, and ran into a juggernaut Cubs offense last week, allowing six runs on seven hits in 4.2 innings. The walk rate (13.7%) isn’t pretty, and he has a good opportunity to end his season on a high note with two reasonable matchups — against the Reds at home and the Marlins on the road. Lynch had served the Royals well as their top southpaw out of the bullpen for most of the season. He moved to the rotation in August and slowly worked his pitch counts upward. Lynch has made it to five innings in each of his last three starts. His latest one (at HOU on September 16) went well — 5 IP – 2 H – 0 ER – 1 BB – 3 K. More of that please as he faces the White Sox and Guardians at Kauffman Stadium in the final week. If I could only choose one for the week, it would be Ritchie.

Red Sox pitchers Brayan Bello and Garrett Whitlock were popular buys as the likelihood of roto stars shining bright on them this week is high. Bello is coming off a tremendous outing against the AL-leading Rays on Saturday where he posted an 11:0 K:BB with just one run allowed in eight innings. Those 11 punchies tied his career high. Bello had been the worst starter in the game (6.49 ERA, 1.67 WHIP) through June 4, when he was optioned to Triple-A. Since the All-Star break, mostly out of relief and with two starts, the 27-year-old has been shining. Over those 51.1 innings, he is rocking exemplary ratios (2.28 ERA, 1.01 WHIP) and a 17% K-BB% (22.3% K, 5.3% BB). Bello should make a start against the Cubs next Saturday. The Cubs should be settled into a playoff spot by then, so perhaps they give Pete Crow-Armstrong and some of the other regulars that day off. Boston’s closer Aroldis Chapman has been day-to-day with a lat issue, so perhaps the Red sox have him take it easy and provide Whitlock with some save opportunities. Whitlock has a 7-2 record with a 17.5 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and four saves.

Streaming Diamondbacks is a good idea this week, specifically for their three-game set at Coors Field against the Rockies in the early part of the week. Pavin Smith was a coveted target, coming off a four-day stretch where three of his hits were home runs. Don’t expect Smith to start against lefty Kyle Freeland, but he should be in the lineup for the other two contests against righties. Nolan Arenado was available in one of the 60 Main Event leagues and was acquired for just one dollar.

Better late than never for two punchless Padres who have been quite productive and certainly enjoyed their visit to Coors Field in the first half of last week. Dustin Harris ($10 AWB) and Samad Taylor ($5) have been red hot and playing often over the last 10 days. Though he doesn’t have a home run yet, Harris has been quite productive and helpful to early-bird managers: eight runs, 12 runs batted in and three steals, batting .384 with a 166 wRC+ in 40 plate appearances since September 11. He’s also been batting second against right-handed starters. Taylor has at least one hit in nine of his last 10, including a 3-for-3 effort on Sunday, and has driven in seven in his last seven games.

As always, more reliable starting pitcher depth was available in the 12-team OC pool. Cristian Javier, Anthony Kay, Robert Gasser, Lynch, Yusei Kikuchi, and Max Scherzer were the most added pitchers this week. Javier should pitch twice this week and will hope to put his best foot forward (in this case, his right arm) as the Astros fight for the AL West and a playoff spot. Sutter Health Park is not a fun place to pitch, but the A’s lineup is a watered-down version without Brent Rooker, Nick Kurtz, Tyler Soderstrom, and Jacob Wilson윌슨. Javier’s first start is in Seattle may not be a picnic with gluten-free granola and Pearl Jam on the Discman.

Milwaukee’s Robert Gasser only draws one start (home vs. STL), but is considered a reliable ratios guy who can score a much-needed win for fantasy managers, as the Brewers will certainly be favorites in that matchup. Gasser earned his fifth win on Saturday, throwing seven scoreless innings against the Orioles. White Sox lefty Anthony Kay has good matchups (at KC on Tuesday and vs. COL on Sunday), though that second start could be pulled away from him. The main problems here is that Kay hasn’t made it to the fifth inning in any of his last five starts. I feel much more comfortable with a single start against the Orioles from Max Scherzer than I do a double (at SEA, at ATH) from wily Yusei Kikuchi. Kikuchi has walked 12 batters in his last three starts.

It’s possible that attraction towards Ryan Johnson this weekend relates to dynasty and keeper formats, and not his start in Seattle this week. Johnson has limited run damage over his last nine starts, since August 6, posting a 2.39 ERA, but with an xFIP (5.01) nearly double the mark. Johnson is more of a 4.25-4.50 ERA guy than a sub-3.00 ERA one, as his 90.9% LOB and .229 BABIP portends.

Perhaps a similar mindset applies to folks who scooped up Jack Perkins, who pitched two quality starts on the road against the Rays (6.2 IP – 4 H – 0 ER – 1 BB – 8 K) and the Guardians (6 IP – 5 H – 1 ER – 0 BB – 4 K), flashing some of his upside and future potential. Perkins has had a difficult season (5.90 ERA, but a 4.16 xFIP, 1.45 WHIP) and will be a tough streamer at home in Sacramento next season, but the strikeouts (25.2%) should always be there.

Andrew Alvarez should have a rotation spot with the Nationals next season. He has been outstanding since the All-Star break, posting a 2.44 ERA (3.30 FIP, 4.02 xFIP) with a 1.10 WHIP and a 22.7% strikeout rate, though he wasn’t able to secure a win in any of those 10 starts. Alvarez won’t be a particularly coveted target in drafts next season, but should have a NFBC ADP somewhere in the 250-325 overall range. He may be a consideration in NL-only keeper leagues with deep benches and five-plus keepers.

Bold Predictions for Week 27

Gavin Williams and Jacob Misiorowski finish the season tied for the MLB lead in strikeouts with 255. Williams punches out 11 and Misiorowski, eight.

JR Ritchie steps up for his two starts and has a Jack Perkins Week 26 type week, helping managers win league titles.

Cade Cavalli twirls a gem in Detroit this week and pulls his 3.02 ERA under 3.00 to end the season. Cavalli will have a top-60 ADP in 2027.

Jo Adell takes advantage of four left-handed starters this week and earns seven RBIs to reach 100, after falling two RBIs short last season.

One of Cristian Javier or Yusei Kikuchi will remind why streaming pitchers in Sutter Health Park, even if part of a two-step, is a mistake.

Miguel Vargas and Colson Montgomery hit three home runs each this week and the White Sox score the most runs in Week 27.

The Houston Astros win the NL West and knock the Texas Rangers out of playoff contention.

I hope you enjoyed my column this season and that you found it helpful, or at least entertaining and informative. Stay tuned for more from me next week as we hit the offseason streets. Best of luck this final week!