Examining Five Breakout Pitchers Being Drafted Past Pick 150: Part 1

We’re looking at breakout pitchers today, specifically arms drafted beyond pick 150 who returned at least $10 more in value in 12-team leagues than they were projected to earn. We highlighted the five starting pitchers that we examined in the table below.

After finding more than five starting pitchers worth highlighting, a second article will cover a few more. Can these breakout starting pitchers sustain their success in 2027? What do the underlying skills and metrics indicate? Without knowing their 2027 draft prices, we’re projecting how to value them early into the 2027 fantasy baseball off-season.

Braxton Ashcraft, SP, Pirates

If we told you Ashcraft would lead the team in ERA (3.65) and rank second in SIERA (3.32) among Pirates starting pitchers, fantasy managers would’ve questioned it before the season. Volume played a role, with over 165 innings after under 70 in 2025.

Ashcraft flashed better skills with a 20.7% K-BB%, over four points higher than 2025. He improved his control, lowering his ball rate to 30.2% from 33.8% in 2025. Ashcrafted maintained an above-average swinging-strike rate (12.1%) and increased his chase rate (39%) by five points. Those inputs positively impacted his K-BB%.

Ashcraft had above-average stuff (105 Stuff+) in his rookie season, increasing slightly to a 107 Stuff+ in 2026. He commanded three pitches significantly better this season, raising his Location+ to 107, seven points higher than 2025. Specifically, Ashcraft commanded his four-seamer (110), slider (108), and curveball (101) better. That coincides with Ashcraft’s four-seamer adding two inches of arm-side fade, leading to weak contact against right-handed hitters (.298 wOBA, .240 xwOBA).

Similarly, Ashcraft’s sinker had under an inch of arm-side fade. Besides Ashcraft’s two fastballs, his curveball lost nearly three inches of drop and an inch of glove-side movement. The curveball was effective against righties (.263 wOBA, .235 xwOBA) and lefties (.158 wOBA, .224 xwOBA). Overall, Ashcraft has plenty of positives, with a chance to sustain his success in 2027.

Cade Cavalli, SP, Nationals

It was a reminder to lean into uncertainty because scenarios can become favorable. That’s especially true when it’s a former first-round pick who dealt with several injuries available at a low draft cost. Projection systems had Cavalli with 135 innings, but he surpassed that and did so with better-than-expected ratios. Cavalli’s strong 21.5% K-BB% supported his breakout season.

He had a higher called-strike percentage (17.9%), up from 16.6% in 2025. Meanwhile, Cavalli had an above-average 11.7% swinging-strike rate, but that might not be high enough to justify a 28.3% strikeout rate. Cavalli’s overall Stuff+ (102) and Location+ (99) don’t wow us, but we like the change in pitch mix. After having a good curveball, Cavalli added a sweeper to the mix. Cavalli’s two above-average pitches in Stuff+ were the sweeping slider (111 Stuff+) and knuckle curveball (111 Stuff+).

The sweeper gave him two breaking pitches to generate weak contact and whiffs against right-handed hitters. That’s evident in the sweeper allowing a .193 wOBA (.263 xwOBA), with a 13.4% swinging-strike rate against righties. Meanwhile, Cavalli’s knuckle curve allowed a .171 wOBA (.193 xwOBA) and generated a 15.9% swinging-strike rate against right-handed hitters.

Though pitchers with breaking pitches can have challenges against opposite-handed hitters, Cavalli’s knuckle curve (.259 wOBA, .262 xwOBA) and changeup (.310 wOBA, .342 xwOBA) have been strong options. Cavalli has a changeup with plenty of arm-side movement (3.4 more inches than average), somewhat like a kick-change. That said, the changeup tends to elicit weak contact rather than whiffs (11.8% swinging-strike rate).

Cavalli’s concerns involve his 77.1% strand rate, 12.8% HR/FB rate, and 3.67 xERA. We might not expect a Nationals starting pitcher to strand most runners and limit hard contact. If the 2027 projections are close to his xERA, we’ll buy in, assuming he isn’t overpriced in the market.

Emerson Hancock, SP, Mariners

Through Hancock’s first 12 starts, he had a 2.80 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and 20.3% K-BB%. He allowed a .243 BABIP and stranded 85.7% of runners. Though he posted strong skills, the luck factors would regress. In Hancock’s final 13 starts, he had a 4.37 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, and a 13.2% K-BB%. The strikeouts disappeared, with a worse BABIP (.308) and a decent strand rate (75.3%).

Hancock had a 101 Stuff+ and 107 Location+ in his first 12 starts. That’s similar to his 100 Stuff+ and 105 Location+ across the final 13 starts. Beyond Hancock’s significantly lower arm angle (11 degrees), he showed strong command (106 Location+) throughout the season. Specifically, Hancock commanded his four-seamer (117) and sinker (111) well from a Location+ standpoint.

From a game theory standpoint, if Hancock finished the season strong, his stock would skyrocket. Unfortunately, Hancock had a bumpy second half before landing on the injured list in late August with a groin strain. There’s a chance to buy the dip, assuming we still believe in the Mariners’ pitcher development, as I do.

Foster Griffin, SP, Guardians

We almost had two Nationals pitchers in the breakout pitcher section. Griffin broke out with the Nationals (3.06 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) before late-season struggles with the Guardians (5.19 ERA, 1.62 WHIP). Griffin was fortunate with the Nationals, given his .256 BABIP and 81.4% strand rate. However, Griffin’s luck regressed significantly with the Guardians, evidenced by a .381 BABIP and 67.8% strand rate.

There wasn’t a significant pitch adjustment with the Guardians, since the cutter, four-seam, and sweeper usage didn’t fluctuate much in August and September. Griffin’s 104 Location+ rose by three points in Cleveland, with a similar Stuff+ (97-98). The tricky part with Griffin is his small MLB sample, though most of the ERA estimators suggested ratio regression.

Griffin has a deep, four-pitch arsenal against right- and left-handed hitters. He has three pitches with a .280 xwOBA or lower against left-handed hitters, including the sweeper (.279 wOBA, .276 xwOBA), sinker (.226 wOBA, .264 xwOBA), and four-seamer (.246 wOBA, .234 xwOBA). That said, Griffin’s changeup was the only pitch with a wOBA under .300 against right-handed hitters (.231 wOBA, .271 xwOBA).

We can’t dismiss Griffin’s volume, tossing over 180 innings in 2026. That could prove valuable on a potentially better team, though he is a free agent heading into 2027. Griffin might provide fantasy value in deeper leagues, especially those draft-and-hold leagues.

Reid Detmers, SP, Angels

Never wrong; we’re always early with Detmers. In the off-season, I thought Detmers could follow Kris Bubic’s path, going from starter to reliever and back to starter. Detmers (finally) had a season with a WHIP under 1.20. His 22% K-BB% was better than his 2025 reliever rate (20.7%). Detmers limited hits and balls in play, given a career-low .274 BABIP. His walk rate dipped to a career low (6.5%), though his 34% ball rate in 2026 was similar to the career average (34.9%). That led to nearly 50 more strikeouts than projected, with an ERA 90 points better than expectations.

Detmers historically had above-average stuff, with a 104 Stuff+ in 2026, identical to the career average. He maintained his high-end command from 2025 (111), with a 109 Location+ in 2026. Beyond the improved luck, the stuff and command numbers supported the breakout season. Though we can’t expect a pitcher’s stuff as a reliever to remain the same when shifting to a starter, Detmers has multiple pitches that were average or slightly above average.

From a command standpoint, Detmers located his four-seamer (107), slider (116), and curveball (111) well in Location+. He leaned on his four-seamer (45.7%) and slider (42.8%) against lefties, leading to quality results. The four-seamer allowed a .276 wOBA (.338 xwOBA), with the slider giving up a .232 wOBA (.272 xwOBA) against lefties. For context, he typically had a third or fourth pitch thrown over 10% of the time to lefties.

Similarly, Detmers leaned on his two best pitches against right-handed hitters. Against righties, Detmers’s four-seam allowed a .313 wOBA (.306 xwOBA) and his slider allowed a .215 wOBA (.207 xwOBA). Interestingly, Detmers’s changeup had a career-best .269 wOBA (.279 xwOBA) against righties, as his third-most-thrown pitch. The changeup added two inches of downward movement and maintained his arm-side fade, though it led to a career-best Stuff+ (101).

As long as Detmers doesn’t become a top-100 pick, he’ll be a target as a starting pitcher with strikeout upside who flashed better command. Detmers was someone I liked before the season, so it’s hard to fade after a breakout performance.