Examining Breakout Pitchers Past Pick 150: Part 2

After Part 1 of examining breakout pitchers drafted past pick 150, we wanted to highlight a few more. The goal was to highlight other pitchers who might not be household names beyond 1-2 pitchers in this article. Can these breakout starting pitchers sustain their success in 2027? What do the underlying skills and metrics indicate? Without knowing their 2027 draft prices, we’re projecting how to value them early into the 2027 fantasy baseball off-season. We won’t discuss Parker Messick or Payton Tolle because we highlighted them late in the season.

Logan Henderson, SP, Brewers

Henderson missed time with a back injury, which limited his innings, but when he was on the field, he performed. Henderson posted a 24.5% K-BB%, 3.13 SIERA, and a 12.4% swinging-strike rate. Those numbers supported Henderson’s strong ratios, though he was also fortunate with a .220 BABIP and an 87% strand rate. He boasts strong control, with a 31.7% ball rate and elicits whiffs at an above-average rate.

Henderson threw his cutter more (23.2%) against right-handed hitters. That coincided with fewer four-seamers (43.7%) and changeups (26.3%). He lowered his four-seam and changeup usage by over 10 percentage points against right-handed hitters in 2026. Though Henderson’s cutter doesn’t elicit whiffs, it performs decently, allowing a .331 wOBA but just a .293 xwOBA against right-handed hitters.

Thankfully, Henderson’s four-seamer (.243 wOBA, .214 xwOBA) and changeup (.176 wOBA, .160 xwOBA) remained effective against right-handed hitters. Meanwhile, Henderson’s changeup (.269 wOBA, .270 xwOBA) and four-seamer (.206 wOBA, .246 xwOBA) performed well against left-handed hitters. Beyond Henderson’s control, he commands his pitches well, with a 108 Location+ and above-average stuff (102 Stuff+). Specifically, Henderson commands his four-seamer (107), cutter (104), and changeup (111) in Location+.

No one is sleeping on Henderson heading into 2027 fantasy baseball drafts, so pay attention to his draft cost. Henderson should be a starting pitcher target, assuming he isn’t going inside the top 100 picks. Though, maybe we could talk ourselves into a top 100 pick?

Max Meyer, SP, Marlins

It might be unfair to call Meyer injury-prone, but he has missed over 70 days on the injured list in four of the past five seasons, including a season-ending neck injury in 2026. Hopefully, Meyer’s neck injury isn’t related to previous shoulder issues. Meyer had a career-best ERA (2.68), boosted by luck but also supported by skill.

On the luck side, he finished with a .262 BABIP, 79.9% strand rate, and a 9.8% HR/FB rate. All those metrics were a career best for Meyer.

On the skill side, after flashing a 16.8% K-BB% across 64 innings in 2025, he increased that slightly in 2026 (17.3%). Meyer continued to lean on his slider (30.3%) and sweeper (28.7%) against right-handed hitters. He lowered his sinker usage from 25% (2025) to 16.1% (2026). He commands them all well, with a 110 Location+. Meyer’s slider (.215 wOBA, .222 xwOBA) and sweeper (.247 wOBA, .296 xwOBA) have been effective against right-handed hitters.

Surprisingly, Meyer leaned more on his sweeper (30.6%) against lefties, after throwing them 5.5% of the time in 2025. Sometimes, breaking pitches don’t fare well against opposite-handed hitters. However, Meyer’s sweeper allows a .242 wOBA (.233 xwOBA) against left-handed hitters. Theoretically, we would like to see Meyer use his changeup more against lefties, but he lowered the usage to 14.4% in 2026. For context, Meyer nearly cut his changeup usage against lefties in half compared to 2025 (28.6%).

Assuming there’s an injury discount (again), we’ll want to go back to the well with him.

Nick Martinez, SP, Rays

This might be oversimplifying it, but Martinez went from the Reds to the Rays. He found success (3.10 ERA) by outpitching his underlying metrics. Martinez had a .265 BABIP and stranded 81.6% of the runners. Furthermore, Martinez had his lowest strikeout rate (15.1%) since 2018 (13.9%) when he was in the NPB. Martinez relied on his control, with a 31.8% ball rate that led to an 11.5% K-BB%, supported by a 4.63 SIERA.

Against right-handed hitters, Martinez increased his sinker (39.2%), cutter (22%), and changeup (21.3%) usage. Most notably, Martinez threw his sinker nearly 17 points more against right-handed hitters. The sinker has got decent results, allowing a .318 wOBA against righties, but a .354 xwOBA isn’t as impressive, especially since it served as a pitch-to-contact offering (91.4% contact rate). Similarly, Martinez’s sinker usage jumped by 20 percentage points (26.5%) against lefties. With the Rays, Martinez’s sinker had a 101 Stuff+, up from 97 in 2025. That’s notable because Martinez’s sinker dropped nearly two inches more and faded over two inches toward his arm side.

Martinez threw his changeup seven points more to righties and a few points higher to lefties. The changeup has been an especially effective pitch against lefties (.243 wOBA, .260 xwOBA). Though Martinez’s changeup had a career-low Stuff+ (109), it was dropping two inches more in 2026 than in 2025.

Starting pitchers with strong command like Martinez can outpitch their peripherals. However, it’s a matter of when, not if, those numbers will regress. The fantasy baseball draft market is sharp, so Martinez might go somewhere around pick 200, where Andrew Abbott and Aaron Nola went.

Sean Burke, SP, White Sox

Burke showed slightly better control (33.9% ball rate) in 2026, compared to a career average of 35.8%. He elicited slightly more whiffs (11.1% swinging-strike rate) and called strikes (17.1%). That led to Burke having a strong 17.2% K-BB%. Burke’s 3.78 xERA and 3.79 SIERA suggest slight regression from his 3.34 actual ERA. The regression may come from a lower strand rate (78.6%) and a higher HR/FB rate (9.2%).

The main pitch mix changes came from throwing more sinkers to righties (17.2%) and lefties (11.4%). Burke also added a cutter, which he threw 13.6% of the time against left-handed hitters. Burke’s sinker and cutter were his third and fourth pitches against righties and lefties, helping diversify his arsenal. The sinker was a pitch-to-contact offering, which he located toward the inside corner to right-handed hitters, allowing a .326 wOBA (.339 xwOBA).

The visual below shows Burke’s sinker heatmaps to righties and cutter locations to lefties.

Meanwhile, Burke’s cutter seems like a slightly harder version of his gyro-like slider. He commanded the cutter well, with a 111 Location+. Burke’s cutter allowed a .335 wOBA (.317 xwOBA) against lefties, giving him something in between the four-seamer and slider.

He showed significantly better Stuff+ (119) from his four-seamer, up from 102 in 2025. That boosted Burke’s overall Stuff+ to 99 in 2026. He has shown average command with his four-seamer (101) and slider (101). However, Burke has flashed high-end command with his cutter and changeup (108 Location+). Burke can take another step forward in stuff and command after some positive changes and gains in multiple categories.

Taj Bradley, SP, Twins

Like other breakout players, Bradley was fortunate, with a 78% strand rate and 11.8% HR/FB rate. Control remains an issue, with a 36.8% ball rate, similar to his career average (36.2%). However, Bradley can generate above-average whiffs via his high-end stuff grades. Bradley boasted a career-best 110 Stuff+, up from 107 for his career.

Bradley’s four-seamer (+4 points) and curveball (+3 points) saw a slight increase in Stuff+. Meanwhile, Bradley’s cutter (+10 points) and splitter (+16 points) saw significant jumps in Stuff+. Interestingly, Bradley’s cutter movement profile has been similar to his career averages, though it dropped 1-2 inches more in 2026. The splitter is unique because he throws it hard in the zone (43.6%), five points higher than the league average. It was Bradley’s best pitch against lefties, allowing a .247 wOBA (.212 xwOBA).

After sprinkling in a sinker (17.4%) to right-handed hitters in 2025, Bradley shifted to a consolidated arsenal (again), with his four-seamer (45.5%), cutter (34.5%), and splitter (10.4%) accounting for 90% of his arsenal. His pitch mix remained similar to lefties, with some fluctuation in splitter usage (+5 points) and fewer curveballs (-7 points).

Bradley’s control and command issues can lead to a volatile profile with strikeout upside. He had 10 or more strikeouts in five games in 2026, with six in his previous three seasons. Maybe it’s my bias, but I tend to gravitate toward pitchers with high-end stuff like Bradley.