Estimating Playing Plate Appearances Knowing Team Talent
I just got done writing up my hitter breakouts and need to make several playing time adjustments based on my projected lineup spot. I needed to find out how many plate appearances the lineup spot generated. After about a half dozen lookups, I decided to just create a simple table with the values.
To do this, I compared the preseason projection for runs scored for a team to the actual plate appearances from the leadoff batter. It’s important to use the projected numbers because that’s all that’s available before the season starts. Here is the graph comparing the two values since 2010 (ignoring 2020) that ended up with an r-squared under .10.
While the relationship isn’t significant (r-squared under 0.10, there is one. I was able to create the following formula to estimate the number of plate appearances using the projected runs scored per game and lineup spot.
Lineup Slot Plate Appearances = (10.655 x Proj RS/G +705) – ((Lineup slot – 1) * 17.81)
Using runs scored per game from our projected standings, here are the 2024 estimated plate appearances per lineup slot.
Team | R/G | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Braves | 5.35 | 762 | 744 | 726 | 709 | 691 | 673 | 655 | 637 | 620 |
Dodgers | 5.12 | 760 | 742 | 724 | 706 | 688 | 671 | 653 | 635 | 617 |
Astros | 5.05 | 759 | 741 | 723 | 705 | 688 | 670 | 652 | 634 | 616 |
Yankees | 4.97 | 758 | 740 | 722 | 705 | 687 | 669 | 651 | 633 | 615 |
Rays | 4.66 | 755 | 737 | 719 | 701 | 683 | 666 | 648 | 630 | 612 |
Mariners | 4.57 | 754 | 736 | 718 | 700 | 682 | 665 | 647 | 629 | 611 |
Orioles | 4.73 | 755 | 738 | 720 | 702 | 684 | 666 | 649 | 631 | 613 |
Phillies | 4.78 | 756 | 738 | 720 | 702 | 685 | 667 | 649 | 631 | 613 |
Blue Jays | 4.72 | 755 | 737 | 720 | 702 | 684 | 666 | 648 | 631 | 613 |
Twins | 4.64 | 754 | 737 | 719 | 701 | 683 | 665 | 648 | 630 | 612 |
Diamondbacks | 4.74 | 756 | 738 | 720 | 702 | 684 | 666 | 649 | 631 | 613 |
Cardinals | 4.82 | 756 | 739 | 721 | 703 | 685 | 667 | 649 | 632 | 614 |
Rangers | 4.90 | 757 | 739 | 722 | 704 | 686 | 668 | 650 | 633 | 615 |
Cubs | 4.66 | 755 | 737 | 719 | 701 | 683 | 666 | 648 | 630 | 612 |
Red Sox | 4.92 | 757 | 740 | 722 | 704 | 686 | 668 | 651 | 633 | 615 |
Padres | 4.52 | 753 | 735 | 718 | 700 | 682 | 664 | 646 | 628 | 611 |
Giants | 4.47 | 753 | 735 | 717 | 699 | 681 | 664 | 646 | 628 | 610 |
Brewers | 4.59 | 754 | 736 | 718 | 700 | 683 | 665 | 647 | 629 | 611 |
Marlins | 4.51 | 753 | 735 | 717 | 700 | 682 | 664 | 646 | 628 | 611 |
Mets | 4.66 | 755 | 737 | 719 | 701 | 683 | 666 | 648 | 630 | 612 |
Guardians | 4.49 | 753 | 735 | 717 | 699 | 682 | 664 | 646 | 628 | 610 |
Tigers | 4.46 | 753 | 735 | 717 | 699 | 681 | 663 | 646 | 628 | 610 |
Reds | 4.85 | 757 | 739 | 721 | 703 | 685 | 668 | 650 | 632 | 614 |
Angels | 4.77 | 756 | 738 | 720 | 702 | 685 | 667 | 649 | 631 | 613 |
Pirates | 4.56 | 754 | 736 | 718 | 700 | 682 | 665 | 647 | 629 | 611 |
Royals | 4.65 | 755 | 737 | 719 | 701 | 683 | 665 | 648 | 630 | 612 |
Athletics | 4.17 | 749 | 732 | 714 | 696 | 678 | 660 | 643 | 625 | 607 |
White Sox | 4.31 | 751 | 733 | 715 | 697 | 680 | 662 | 644 | 626 | 608 |
Nationals | 4.30 | 751 | 733 | 715 | 697 | 680 | 662 | 644 | 626 | 608 |
Rockies | 4.66 | 755 | 737 | 719 | 701 | 683 | 666 | 648 | 630 | 612 |
A major finding, at least for me, was that the difference between the Braves and A’s is just 13 PA. That’s it. The difference doesn’t seem to matter enough when making quick calculations.
I took the median values from the above table and created the 100% row in the following table. Besides Marcus Semien, hitters aren’t expected to play every game. I added a percentage of plate appearances to create a quick reference chart.
% of PA | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
100% | 755 | 737 | 719 | 701 | 683 | 666 | 648 | 630 | 612 |
90% | 679 | 663 | 647 | 631 | 615 | 599 | 583 | 567 | 551 |
80% | 604 | 589 | 575 | 561 | 547 | 532 | 518 | 504 | 490 |
70% | 528 | 516 | 503 | 491 | 478 | 466 | 453 | 441 | 428 |
60% | 453 | 442 | 431 | 421 | 410 | 399 | 389 | 378 | 367 |
50% | 377 | 368 | 359 | 351 | 342 | 333 | 324 | 315 | 306 |
This table assumes that 2024 will have the same run-scoring environment as 2023. In the future, the run-scoring environment must be considered, and don’t assume the above table will work as a reference.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Excellent, Jeff, thank you! Again.
(umm, any chance of deriving whether warm weather pitchers’ parks play as more [relatively] neutral in cold April?? 🙂 )