Eric Hosmer: Is This a Hot Streak or Is It Real?
Only one other first baseman has as many homers as Chris Davis over the past 14 days. Since you are reading this post you can surmise that it is Eric Hosmer, and the hot streak over the past few weeks has pushed his wRC+ up to 109. Prior to that streak, his year was looking much more 2012 like than 2011, and although Hosmer generated some value in his legs last year, it is great to see him finally starting to hit for a bit of power.
Prior to June 21 he held just a .357 slugging percentage. Since then it has risen all the way to .431 and is seemingly growing every day. Now the big question is will this pace continue and will his batting average also continue to rise at a rapid rate.
It should be noted that all seven of his home runs since June 21 have been hit in either neutral or pitcher’s ballparks, which is definitely a good sign. It should also be noted that he has struck out just three times in that span in 70 plate appearances. Along with the three strikeouts have come just three walks – one of which was intentional. Cramming together 10 extra base hits in 70 plate appearances is definitely impressive, and he seems to finally be getting the ball in the air a bit more.
That final point has been his biggest issue all year. Among qualified first basemen, none have a lower fly ball percentage than Eric Hosmer. His home run per fly ball ratio has jumped up to a respectable 15% for the season after this hot streak, but he is still hitting fly balls at just a 21.8% rate. That is a serious cause for concern for his power potential. Even in 2011 when he had an impressive rookie campaign he hit fly balls at just a 31.7% rate, which would rank 25th out of 29 this year.
The good news is that the fly ball rate is continually rising since May. He went from 19.1% to 22.7% to this month’s 28.6% rate (obviously in a small sample). It is far from certain that this month’s will remain above his roughly 23% rate last month, but he is off to a good start with a third of the month behind us.
The only thing missing from him almost matching his 2011 season is about 30 points in slugging percentage. ZiPS does not have Hosmer reaching that point over the remainder of the year, but it does have him hitting a decent .277/.337/.434 with nine homers and seven steals. Is that starting 1B material in standard leagues? No, definitely not. But it is worthwhile of a utility spot and a corner infield spot at worst if that is how your league works.
I made the mistake of dropping Hosmer early in June in one league while I held onto him as a bench option in another league. I missed his first big week in the league I kept him in but the dividends are starting to be paid for my patience. In the other league, I just faced him last week and he pretty much knocked me out of playoff contention on his lonesome barring a crazy run (this one is h2h, the other is roto).
The moral of the story is to be patient with guys who have a plethora of skills, even if it is at first base where it is difficult to wait on anyone. If your team lacks balance or has a lot of power from middle infield and outfield spots and you can use some help in steals, Hosmer is a great trade target to grab some stolen bases from an unusual place. Some owners may be willing to deal him quick as well as they may not believe in the hot streak. I am not saying I believe in it either, but I think a .280 average with 8-10 home runs and a similar amount of steals is certainly attainable and reasonable. If you think that can help your team, make the move.
Ben has been at RotoGraphs since 2012 and focuses most of his fantasy baseball attention toward dynasty and keeper leagues.
bababaaabeeeeeeast
Going Up: Eric Hosmer
Going Down: Anthony Rizzo
The Royals just seem like they are totally having fun. There’s so many likable guys on this team–Gordon, Salvy, Shields, Hosmer, Moose–they have to be atop the funness factor along with the A’s and Rangers.
Rangers will be fun until they find Andrus’ mangled body under a steel-gazed Beltre with a woolen hat and a shaky alibi.
“Is that starting 1B material in standard leagues? No, definitely not.”
I don’t get this statement. It is certainly starting material in any league with more than 8 teams this season. 1B is not as deep as advertised.
“1B is not as deep as advertised.”
This. Its all you ever read “1b is deep! 1b is so deep!” In my 12 team mixer guys like Carpenter (nice player, hardly a premium power corner IFer), Swisher (once dependable, this season deplorable), Khris Karter, Todd Frazier (the definition of replacement level), and Justin Morneau’s corpse have all received signicant starts at 1B.
Traditional “position scarcity” slots like SS and C are deeper than 1B this season, imo, because there are plenty of useful enough if uninspiring guys to slot in that won’t get you killed. But if you are slotting in one of the above guys against a team with Votto/Goldy/Prince etc, good luck.
Hosmer is currently ranked 15th among 1Bs in Yahoo.
Todd Frazier has been better than replacement level, or at least it feels that way when I trot him out to 3B every day.
I get where you’re coming from but I’d say it’s borderline starting 1B production in a 12-team league. I wouldn’t say you’re necessarily hurting if Hosmer is your best option at 1b, but you better have some top-tier power hitters at other positions.
IMHO the statement definitely applies if you use a generous definition of 1b, cuz multiple-eligibility players like Encarnacion, Carpenter, Trumbo, Mauer, Santana always wind up playing there for some teams.
If someone’s starting Mauer or Santana at first, they are doing it wrong.
Davis, Goldschmidt, Fielder, Encarnacion, Votto, Craig, Ortiz, Trumbo, Gonzalez, Posey, Cuddeyer, Carpenter and Loney have all had better seasons to date (by Yahoo ranker at least). I’d put those first 10 guys ahead of Hosmer. And that’s not even taking into account Rizzo, Pujols, Napoli, Mauer, Laroche etc. Guys that are all at about the same level of production as Hosmer this year. First base is still pretty deep.
It’s also worth noting, although not particularly fantasy relevant, that he is apparently playing a pretty solid defensive first base this year, based on UZR.
I’m not sure I agree with the moral of the story. If George Brett and Pedro Grifol had not come in and encouraged him to make obvious changes, he would still be beating into the ground everything below the waist and completely unable to pull the ball.
The first link is from late May when he was actually improving a bit, at least from last year. But it was still typical of a big night for him then, when his swing was just uncontrolled and a big night always meant a couple fluky hits.
http://wapc.mlb.com/play/?content_id=27302907&c_id=mlb
The second link is from a big game in Minnesota late June. It is no exaggeration that this guy did not pull a ball for months on end. Now he’s not only pulling the ball, but he’s going down and getting pitches and putting backspin on them. And as you can see from the second homer, despite using his legs better and crouching more, he can still adjust his swing plane and tomahawk that FB out over the plate.
http://wapc.mlb.com/play/?content_id=28437663&c_id=mlb&topic_id=vtp_highlight_worthy
This is much more like what we saw in his rookie year. He still has a ways to go (still needs an education on controlled aggression, and as he admits using his legs more is a matter of repetition to instill muscle memory), but thank goodness somebody finally stepped in to stop the madness. I’d like to see him start off with more weight on the back leg similar to Chipper Jones, because I think pitchers will make adjustments down in the zone (and needless to say anything above thigh high at this point is definitely a mistake because he is a devastating high ball hitter). But Royals fans finally have hope again in him fulfilling his considerable potential. I would definitely be buying low here.
As Eric Hosmer’s “streak” is a result of George Brett helping the Hoz fix mechanical issues, I think he can continue.
Maybe it’s a little early for this, but what do you think of his value in keeper leagues for 2014?