Early NFBC ADP Thoughts

I discovered a Christmas treat over the weekend: NFBC average draft position data is now up for 2016 drafts! I don’t know exactly how many drafts have taken place just yet, but it’s still nice to get an early look at things and see what’s going on. I’ve got some thoughts for every position:

CATCHER:

• Buster Posey is far and away the top catcher for 2015. The 89-pick gap between Posey and Jonathan Lucroy is more than double the next-biggest at any position – which happens to be 42 picks between Carlos Correa and Troy Tulowitzki.
• I like Lucroy for a rebound, but I’m not chasing him so if I don’t take Posey then I’m waiting a bit on catcher. It’s not an endless trove, but Blake Swihart, Yasmani Grandal, Derek Norris, Nick Hundley, Miguel Montero, Wilson Ramos, and Welington Castillo are all going after pick 200.
• Don’t wait too long, though, dollar catchers are the worst investments in dollar days. The Baseball Forecaster by Ron Shandler tells us that dollar backstops return negative value on average.
• Edit: I just realized Kyle Schwarber is listed under OF despite qualifying at C (21 games played) so his 33 ADP makes for just a 13-pick gap between the first and second catcher. 

FIRST BASE:

• First base is stacked at the top per usual with seven guys hold a Min Pick in the top 25. It has the most top-100 picks on the infield with 11 (third base was second with 8). You’ll see Prince Fielder under the first basemen, but he’s a DH-only player in most leagues.
• I feel like you really want one of the top 9 in Paul Goldschmidt, Anthony Rizzo, Miguel Cabrera, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Abreu, Chris Davis, Joey Votto, Adrian Gonzalez, and Eric Hosmer.
• Even if you jump on 1B early, chances are you’ll be revisiting it for your corner infielder or utility player. There are later options for some upside like Justin Bour, Greg Bird, and Travis Shaw or useful-but-unspectacular vets like Adam Lind, Mitch Moreland, and Mike Napoli.

SECOND BASE:

• After the two speedsters leading the position (Jose Altuve and Dee Gordon), there’s a big jump down to the next tier of established veterans who feel more like high-floor than high-ceiling: Robinson Cano, Brian Dozier, Jason Kipnis, and Ian Kinsler with Anthony Rendon mixed in (who I still see with tons of upside and now at an affordable price).
• After that it splits into two distinct groups: reliable vets (Daniel Murphy, DJ LeMahieu, Dustin Pedroia, Logan Forsythe, Ben Zobrist, Brandon Phillips, Neil Walker, and Howie Kendrick) and young gambles (Rougned Odor, Kolten Wong, Addison Russell, Javier Baez, Joe Panik, Jonathan Schoop, and Devon Travis).
• Starlin Castro kind of straddles both groups. He’s only 26 years old, but he has six full seasons under his belt. Two of his last three seasons have been duds so he’s not that reliable, but he does have some upside, especially going into Yankee Stadium.

SHORTSTOP:

• If you’re not prepared to take Carlos Correa in the first half of the first round, then don’t bother buying that shirsey because he won’t be on your team. The early drafters are paying up for the Rookie of the Year and dreaming of what could be when the kid who popped 22 HR in 99 games gets a full season of work.
• There’s a youth movement at shortstop that bodes well for the future of the position. In addition to Correa (21 years old), the position has Francisco Lindor (22), Corey Seager (22), and Xander Bogaerts (23) all in the top 5. I wouldn’t object to taking all four ahead of Troy Tulowitzki.
• Marcus Semien (25) had a solid start (.770 OPS thru May) and big finish (.830 Aug-Sept.), but just a .527 in June and July which held down his season numbers. Keep an eye on him, he doesn’t need major improvements to be a strong play at short.
• You’ve also got Ketel Marte (22) and Trea Turner (23) who could be strong speed assets at the position, too.

THIRD BASE:

• Wow, four top-10 third baseman. A position can turn quickly as we see with the hot corner. It was light coming into last year, but now offers the richest frontend of any position with Josh Donaldson, Nolan Arenado, Kris Bryant, and Manny Machado all going in the top 10 on average and none of them falling lower than 17.
• I don’t agree with Bryant ahead of Machado. In fact, I prefer Frazier in the four-spot, but I get it. Bryant had an amazing debut despite a 31% K rate so if he cuts into that, the sky is the limit.
• If you get a pick of 10 or later, you likely won’t get a crack at any of the superstuds, but you can then wait a bit. Evan Longoria is no longer a sexy pick, but he now has three straight seasons of 670+ PA and getting him as the 11th 3B off the board is pretty solid. He still has 30-HR potential, especially if his HR/FB rate creeps back to his 15% career mark after two years at 11%. (He would’ve had 29 last year with a 15% clip based on his 194 flyballs).

OUTFIELD:

• Of course Mike Trout and Bryce Harper lead the position and will be taken with the top 3 of virtually all drafts.
• After those two, it’s essentially five-category types (Andrew McCutchen, A.J. Pollock, Mookie Betts, etc…) or pure power (Giancarlo Stanton, Jose Bautista, J.D. Martinez, etc…) assets throughout the rest of the top 20.
• OF always feels deep because of how many superstars play there, but once we start looking at 15 teams needing five plus others taken for different positions/utility spots, it’s not that deep.
• Or maybe it just gains depth in-season. After all, we weren’t talking about Michael Conforto, Delino DeShields Jr., Billy Burns, Ender Inciarte, or Stephen Piscotty last winter and they’re all top-50 OF now.
• Guys like Trayce Thompson, Aaron Judge, Derek Dietrich, Josh Bell, and Nick Williams could be the off-the-radar guys ready to make a big impact in 2016.

STARTING PITCHER:

• OK, now this position is actually deep. The last two AL Cy Young winners (Corey Kluber and Dallas Keuchel in case you forgot) are going 13th and 14th, just behind Stephen Strasburg and just ahead Noah Syndergaard. Any of them could lead your staff.
• Oh and even if you miss out on all of them, you can get Chris Archer, Felix Hernandez, or Carlos Carrasco at 16, 17, and 18.
• Hell, you could realistically go with offense in the first seven rounds and then commit to a double-up of SPs in rounds 8 and 9 (12-team league) and wind up with two of Jon Lester, Sonny Gray, Cole Hamels, Adam Wainwright, Danny Salazar, Michael Wacha, Tyson Ross, Johnny Cueto, Marcus Stroman, and Garrett Richards. It’s all about getting two, though, because you’ll be going up against some teams that have two of those top-18 guys and many others with at least one of them so don’t half-ass it.
• Like last year, there is a big glob of talent after the top-30 or so. Lance McCullers Jr. is going 34th and while I like him a good bit, I feel like I’d rather wait on Carlos Rodon (39th), Raisel Iglesias (45th), Taijuan Walker (47th), or Joe Ross (56th) because they all have pretty similar upsides and risk so don’t pay for the top of that youthful tier.
• Jose Quintana gets no love at 50 even after three straight 200+ IP seasons of mid-3.00s ERA. He’s still just 27 years old, too.
• We tend to focus on the top-50 or top-75 SPs, but there will be tons of guys outside of the top-80 who end up being big contributors. Some of the guys outside the top-80 that I like include young guys on the rise, injury returns, post-hype youngish guys such as: Daniel Norris (83), Vincent Velasquez (89), Kyle Gibson (96), Jesse Hahn (101), Zack Wheeler (109), Drew Hutchison (yes, still… 110), Rubby de la Rosa (117), and Adam Conley (120) to name a few.

RELIEF PITCHER:

• According to ESPN’s Player Rater, 18 relievers ranked in the top-100 by season’s end. You have to remove Carrasco and Marco Estrada because they are actually starters, but you still have 16 relievers in the top-100. Only 10 are being drafted in the top-100 of early drafts meaning you don’t have to get in early on relief pitching (three others have gone as high as a top-100 pick, but their average pick falls just outside) for a chance to land a stud.
• I am in favor of securing at least one ace-reliever early, though, and sometimes I’ll do the back-to-back as I did with Wade Davis and Kenley Jansen at picks 75 and 76 of my early-November draft in Arizona.
• My favorite potential studs outside of the top-12 (I’ll group David Robertson and Cody Allen with those top-100 guys because they’re so close at 104 and 105) include: A.J. Ramos (14th RP/131st overall), Roberto Osuna (15/133), Brad Boxberger (21/173), Glen Perkins (24/192) and both Sean Doolittle (23/190) and Arodys Vizcaino (25/193) if they can stay healthy – a challenge for Doolittle in 2015 and Vizcaino throughout his career.

What are some of your early takeaways from the NFBC ADP data? Leave ‘em in the comments. Also, who is your favorite SP outside of the top-50?