Early Mock Thoughts: Starting Pitcher ADP

Yesterday, the Justin Mason posted the ADP from four of the slowest drafts containing industry experts and myself. One thought I had after a handful of rounds was the lack pitching available and how the good were the available hitters. I decided to go back and examine draft results from last year and these draft to see if pitching was being taken early. While it wasn’t, some other information could be extracted.

While starting pitchers seemed to be coming off the board early, it just wasn’t the case. Here are the starting pitchers who were taken in 2016 NFBC top 100 picks and these decent mock drafts.

Thoughts

• Just a difference of one player doesn’t yet make it a trend to worry about. The small difference could change once projections become available and tiers are easier to notice. For now, owners aren’t valuing good pitchers more highly.
• I do wonder if there are more decent hitters late into the draft. With the number of 20-home run hitters nearly doubling from 64 in 2015 to 117 last season, power should no longer be a valued commodity. If an owner wants just home runs and RBIs, they can wait on Mark Trumbo (264th) or Albert Pujols (247nd). A hitter needs OBP/AVG or stolen bases to have value. Owners can wait and get 30 home runs. They can’t wait on 20 stolen bases or a .380 OBP.
• In last year’s draft, the major tier occurred after 17 picks. Besides injured guys, Cubs and Cueto, these top 17 performed as expected. From the early 2017 drafts, two early tiers are emerging. There are the top four (Kershaw, Scherzer, Sale, Kluber) and then another tier ending after Chris Archer at #16. Personally, I may push Keuchel up, but this grouping makes sense. In drafts, I see myself going with two approaches. Grabbing one of the top four and hoping they stay healthy throughout the season. Otherwise, I will be aiming to get two of the second tier. In a 12-team league, this means taking two pitchers in the first five rounds (all gone by 60th overall). In a 15-teamer, it’s two in the first four rounds.
• After the pitchers are gone in 2017’s second tier, I’m going to value shop. Jose Quintana went at number 84. Chase Anderson dropped to number 205. Is there really a difference? I want to get some projections and find out if how much these pitchers differ.
• The reliever values were way down but with so many roles up in the air, there are few set jobs at this point. Don’t worry about their values until the hot stove season is winding down.