Early ADP Thoughts – Relief Pitcher Pt. 1

This is our last position in the ADP previews, though I’m breaking it up into two parts (top 20 here and then the rest). Relief is especially interesting on the fantasy landscape because fantasy managers have such varied approaches. Some swear by locking up a superstar in the early rounds.

Hell, some swear by double-tapping studs if they have a pick on one of the ends, especially in a format like the NFBC that bars trading. Others gladly draft the crusty, unspectacular guys who just rack up saves regardless of their skills and ratios. Then there’s the group that refuses to expend many resources on closers and focus either bottom of the barrel, closers-in-waiting, or in most cases both.

I lean toward the high end. I have no issues spending an early pick on a superstar closer because of how much they can help in strikeouts and even the ratios. Nabbing someone who can pop a triple-digit strikeout total allows you some leeway on your starters, too. Like I said earlier, today we’ll focus on the first 20 closers (and some of their handcuffs) and then I’ll dive in on the low-end closers and hidden gems to cap off the series.

Previous Editions:

• C/1B
• 2B/SS
• 3B
• OF Pt. 1
• OF Pt. 2
• SP Pt. 1
• SP Pt. 2

RELIEF PITCHER (click here for ADP list)

• I’ve got no problem with Aroldis Chapman (pick 45) and Kenley Jansen (49) sitting just before pick 50, but I think Zach Britton (58) belongs in right with them.
• Chapman could probably stand alone given his dominance. His 19% swinging strike rate over the last two seasons is best among RP and his 41% K rate is second to only former teammate Andrew Miller (104) at 43%.
• But missing bats isn’t the only aspect to success. Both Jansen and Britton have substantially better walk rates and thus better WHIP totals, too.
• Britton leads the pack in ERA (1.22), Jansen leads in WHIP (0.72), and the pair are tied with 83 saves.
• Mark Melancon (71) has the most saves in baseball over the last two seasons with 98. He’s also 7th in ERA (1.95) and tied for 4th in WHIP with Britton (0.91).
• His strikeout rate is low for the stud closers of today, but he’s averaging 67 per season the last four years which certainly won’t hurt your team. Pair him with an ace strikeout start for maximum effect.
• There’s not enough difference between Craig Kimbrel (76) and Ken Giles (95) for a nearly 20-pick split.
• There’s also this. This is the third straight season that I’m hyped on Giles going into the season. This is the year!
• Edwin Diaz (85) might strike folks as a little high, but he was incredible last year. His 41% K rate is the 9th-best individual RP season over the last three seasons and his 34% K-BB% is 8th.
• He did sputter into the finish line, allowing 10 of his 16 ER in his last 18.7 IP (1.64 ERA through 33 IP before that).
• His velocity held throughout save a dip in his final appearance of the year on October 1st, but that may have been by design as he went 2.3 IP.
• There’s a decent discount on Wade Davis (91) centered around his balky forearm from last year. His 1.87 ERA/1.13 WHIP looks fantastic, but does represent quite a jump from his 0.97/0.82 in 2014-15. Be careful. I’d rather take his successor almost two rounds later.
• It doesn’t look like Andrew Miller (104) will wrest the closer’s role from Cody Allen (106), but he’s still worth getting picked around here.
• Miller’s 326 strikeouts give him more than 88 of the 172 starting pitchers who’ve throw at least 190 IP (Miller has 198.3).
• He is also 2nd to only Britton in WPA/LI so while he may not log many saves, he’s actually a decent bet for wins among relievers… which admittedly isn’t saying a ton since wins among starters are hard enough to evaluate.
• In leagues that counts saves and holds, either together or as separate categories, Miller is a top five reliever.
• I think Kelvin Herrera (114) is easily a top 10 closer with legitimate top 5 upside.
• Frankly, his 21% and 22% strikeout rates from 2014-15 were surprisingly low given his 12% and 13% swinging strike rate, but he set a career high in both this past season at 30% and 15%, respectively, which were incrementally better than his 2013 marks.
• Herrera is 11th ERA (2.30) and shutdowns (95), 19th in SwStr% (14%), and 20th in WHIP (1.07) over the last three years (min. 150 IP) while logging the 7th-most innings (211.7) of the 77 qualified relievers.
• It’s hard to know exactly what will happen with Jeurys Familia regarding his domestic violence issue, but even with the charges dismissed, he is likely to face a 30-game suspension.
• There’s never a smooth transition from a such serious issue to a frivolous one like its impact on fantasy baseball, but with a suspension likely, it puts Addison Reed (274) in play for at least a month with a small chance at maybe more.
• If Reed looks as good as he did last year (1.97 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 30% K, 26% K-BB, and 12% SwStr), perhaps they leave him in the role? Chances are admittedly slim, but not completely out of bounds.
• We could see David Robertson (129) traded before the season even starts, but the most likely move would be to Washington where he’d still be closing. However, a move would greatly elevate the stock of Nate Jones (285).
• Jones’ skills are actually a bit better than Robertson’s over the last two seasons with markedly better results in the ERA and WHIP. I’d be drafting Jones way ahead of his ADP even if Robertson isn’t moved this spring.
• A.J. Ramos (131) had a brutal July-August (6.05 ERA) that included a DL stint and added more than a run and a half to his ERA, but allowed just 1 ER in September while fanning 14 in 13.7 IP.
• Brad Ziegler (439) lingers, but Ramos will start the season in role.
• The bookends of Francisco Rodriguez’s (133) were rough, but they mask an otherwise solid season.
• He allowed 3 ER in his season debut and then 5 ER in his second-to-last outing of the year, accounting 38% of his 21 ER all year, but he had a 2.10 ERA in the 55.7 IP between those games with 44 SV (third-highest total in the league).
• I prefer him as my second closer, but if you go cheap you can start with K-Rod and add another two guys with him.
• Sam Dyson’s (148) base skills were unimpressive last year (19% K, 8% BB, 8% SwStr), but you have remember his 65% GB rate offsets some of that.
• In fact, he’s been at 63% of better each of the last three years, aiding him to a 0.48 HR/9 and 80% LOB rate. I don’t think Dyson is a great bet to hold the role all year.
• Jeremy Jeffress (484) is essentially Dyson with fewer groundballs so I think Matt Bush (378) is actually the handcuff you want with Dyson. Based on ADP, it seems the market agrees.
• I don’t think Tony Watson (150) is lock to hold the job in Pittsburgh with Daniel Hudson (459) in the mix.
• Though the Pirates having multiple reliable lefties (namely Felipe Rivero and Antonio Bastardo) does make it easier for them to keep Watson there and see if he can improve upon that out-of-character 1.3 HR/9 from last year.