Early ADP Observations: Catchers

The 2026 season is officially in the rearview, and we’re not wasting time preparing for the new fantasy baseball season. Steamer released its initial projections for 2027; FanGraphs Depth Charts (FGDC) followed with its projections, and NFBC released 2027 ADP based on completed drafts. Through Thursday, November 5, there are 18 completed drafts — eight Draft Champions (50-round, 15-team Draft-and-Hold roto, $150 entry), nine NFBC 50s (50-round, 12-team Draft-and-Hold roto, $50 entry), and one Gladiator (23-round, 15-team, no bench roto, $50 entry). I am a big fan of colleague Jason R.R. Martinez’s Depth Charts because they integrate playing time projections with Steamer, and eventually ZiPS when those are released.

This series will review early ADP data in paid roto leagues, by position. The goal is multifaceted: to identify draft trends within a position relating to the entire player pool and to highlight specific players who might be over- or under-valued by the early draft market. Let’s start with the backstops with an ADP in the top 360, representing the first 30 rounds of 12-team drafts.

There are so many ways to go about the catcher position. The strategy of semi-punting in two-catcher leagues is still deployed, but the trend of investing in at least one top-tier backstop has been more prevalent in NFBC contests over the past few years. We were all impressed with Cal Raleigh’s historic 2025 season, yet the 2026 pool of catchers said “hold my Gatorade.” Eight of the top 30 hitters per our 12-team Player Rater last season were catchers and none of them were Raleigh. Player Raters certainly inflate catcher values in traditional 5×5 roto leagues where we start two, but it was an impressive feat nevertheless. Hunter Goodman, the fifth-ranked hitter, would have still ranked among the top 20 without positional inflation. He was one of eight hitters with at least 41 home runs. Dillon Dingler and Carter Jensen were late-round gems who each hit 27 dingers with at least 160+ R+RBI and amassed over 600 plate appearances. Drake Baldwin was one of the best overall 5×5 producers in fantasy and Gabriel Moreno won the NL batting title. We had some pleasant surprises as well, including early-season FAAB stud Liam Hicks and late-season helper, Leo Bernal. It was a good year for the position. Here is the new season-to-date ADP for catcher-eligible hitters:

The Building Blocks

Hunter Goodman was the highest-earning backstop last season, but Drake Baldwin is the current C1 in early drafts. Both had ADPs in the 65-85 overall range along with draft bust Agustín Ramírez, who is now a post-250 ADP selection. Baldwin was a staple of the Atlanta Braves lineup last season, earning 89% of his starts as the leadoff or two-hole hitter. Early drafters likely recognize that Baldwin missed nearly four weeks, yet still produced a solid profit, anchored by a well-above-average .284 BA, supported by a .279 xBA and a slightly above-average .332 BABIP. Baldwin’s strikeout rate rose from the previous season, from 15.2% to 21.5%. For 2027, Steamer regresses his strikeout rate to 19.3%. He offers a higher floor than Goodman, who has much greater batting average category downside following two seasons with a sub-.245 xBA. Goodman should hit more home runs, but the gap in their primary power metrics weren’t all that different. Baldwin had a higher hard-hit rate (50.6%) and average exit velocity (91.5 mph) than Goodman (44.3%, 89.8 mph). Goodman bested him in barrel rate (14.4% vs. 12.9%) and had a much higher ISO (.284 vs. .175). Goodman’s average launch angle (18.6 degrees) was higher than Baldwin’s (11), though Baldwin’s rose from his rookie season mark of 6.6 degrees.

Shea Langeliers’ price stands out as one likely to increase over the next few months. In fact, most of the Athletics bats will once we start to hear positive health news. Colleague Jack Dorfman wrote an incredible piece that sliced hitter data at Sutter Health Park in creative ways and asserted a premise I wholeheartedly agree with: there are some incredible buy-low opportunities here. Langeliers isn’t cheap per se, but there is room to squeeze out a profit. It also wouldn’t be shocking to see him hit 40 homers and be This Year’s Goodman. Langeliers averaged 30 homers and 76 RBI in 481.5 PA over the 2024 and 2025 seasons. Despite missing nearly seven weeks last season, he hit 23 HR, 58 RBI, with a .212 ISO, 91.3 EV and a 13.3% BRL. In early 15-team drafts, I’d be ecstatic to draft him in the late-third round, especially if I drafted a pitcher with one of my first two picks.

Reigning World Series champion and MVP William Contreras has been the best and most consistent hitter at his position, earning at least $20 in four consecutive seasons. Over that four-season stretch, he ranks 19th among all hitters in total runs and runs batted in, all while producing a splendid .275 average. We should have no issue clicking the draft button for him at this reasonable price point.

Next Guys Up

The catchers in this second tier I would expect the most market movement from between January and March are Cal Raleigh and Samuel Basallo. Raleigh’s price can go in either direction, though we may not hear anything about his health status until after the winter holidays. He should be fine for spring training (assuming it starts on time). Until then, two factors will hold his ADP down: his early-October left shoulder debridement surgery, and how he massively disappointed at least one manager in every draft who used their second-round pick on him. His .182 average last season wasn’t just bad, it was Chris Davis bad.

Basallo has a wide min/max range through the first eight Draft Champions (DC) drafts, drafted as high as 71 with a low of 119. Basallo struggled against lefties (30 wRC+) compared to against righties (116), so Steamer and FGDC project him to sit against some of the lefties — 426 PA (102 G) and 459 PA (115 G) respectively. He hit 18 HR with 54 RBI and a .222 BA with a solid 12.1% barrel rate, and struck out at a 26.6% clip. Adley Rutschman is no longer in the orange-glazed picture and Basallo is the backstop of the present and the future. He is aptly priced at his 102 ADP, though it feels a bit discounted. I expect Basallo’s ADP to surge at least 25 overall slots by March and would encourage early drafters to invest.

I am a big fan of Iván Herrera, but there’s bias baked in. I’ve kept close tabs on him since his time in the minors and I invested heavily in drafts for his 2025 breakout season. There were certainly some big dips in his per-at-bat output and his underlying metrics. He hit the same number of homers (19) and drove in a similar number of batters (66, 69) in 2025 and 2026, though with 265 more plate appearances last season. His barrel rate dipped from 11% to 6.1%, as did his hard-hit rate, from 47.4% to 40.3%. After nearly 200 games batting over .290, Herrera’s average plummeted to .241 (.249 xBA) last season. Perhaps some of it was bad luck (.280 BABIP) as Steamer projects .263 this season. On the plus side, he sure did play a lot, earning the second-most plate appearances (717) in the Majors and scored 98 runs. Herrera is mostly a designated hitter with catcher eligibility, which fantasy managers typically consider to be a bit of a cheat code. He could hit 20+ homers, should steal a few bases and is part of that fearsome foursome alongside JJ Wetherholt, Alec Burleson and Jordan Walker. Herrera is priced well and is a nice target.

The Middle Tier

We have a few potential bounceback candidates in Will Smith, Adley Rutschman, and Yainer Diaz. Diaz was trending towards being a bust, but picked up the pace after the All-Star break, producing a 5×5 line of 20-8-22-0-.318 in 50 games (179 PA), and finds himself among the top 200 overall again. Part of his first half struggle can be attributed to an oblique injury that kept him out of an action for about a month. He’s not a guy that managers will chase up the draft board, but he certainly offers a bit of power and a solid batting average baseline.

Smith experienced an injury-plagued season, as he appeared in just 73 games (276 PA) and there’s some of last year’s woes baked into his price now. There’s no Dalton Rushing to worry about for quite some time (UCL tear, out at least through mid-summer) and Smith should undoubtedly get the lion’s share of work behind the plate for the Dodgers.

Over the last couple of seasons, Rutschman has earned the reputation of “better in real life than in fantasy”, which is a fair assessment since he doesn’t steal bases and isn’t a formidable asset in any of the other traditional roto categories. Moreover, he has been held back by injuries, playing fewer than 100 games in each of the past two seasons. A former first overall MLB draft pick, Rutschman would be a number-one pick in catcher-only, defensive leagues that grade framing, caught stealing and blocks. Alas, I’m in no such leagues.

It’s difficult to get hop on the Hicks train around ADP 150. It’s impressive that he hit 18 home runs last season despite his low-level power. Over these first two seasons in the Majors, Hicks owns a 27.3% hard-hit rate, 3.6% barrel rate, and a 84.6 mph average exit velocity. Hicks sure did smack right-handed pitchers around last season (.181 ISO, 144 wRC+) while managing a miniscule .038 ISO and 45 wRC+ in 104 plate appearances against lefties. He isn’t likely to earn future opportunities to face lefties.

Savvy Veterans and Kids

This is a mixed group that features elder statesmen Salvador Perez, who will be turning 37 in May, and 20-year-old top Padres prospect, Ethan Salas. Cream usually rises to the top, but I’m not sure Salas is ready for cream status, especially at this price. I’m not interested in Perez at this point in his career and plan to focus on other catchers. Last season, Perez saw a four percent decline in barrel rate (down to 10.6%) and about a 1.5 mph reduction in bat speed from the past two seasons. Turning 30 years old in June, Ryan Jeffers is a free agent who was extended a $23.15M qualifying offer for 2027 by the Twins. He’s a solid producer when healthy. His 115 wRC+ over the last three seasons ranks third in the American League behind Raleigh and Langeliers. There’s always a bit of a fantasy discount on real-life free agents this early in draft season, but Jeffers isn’t likely to climb up draft boards too swiftly this offseason regardless of where he lands. He’s a worthwhile target in this price range.

Kyle Teel feels undervalued in early drafts, mostly due to his recent health history straight off the medical charts of a Luis Robert Jr. or Byron Buxton. Teel’s misfortunes began with Team Italy in the WBC, a hamstring injury that kept him out until his rehab assignment in mid-May that resulted in a sprained LCL in his right knee, which then sent him onto the 60-day IL. Teel managed to squeeze in 144 PA over 39 games, producing 26 runs with five homers, 21 runs scored and a .210 average. FGDC pegs him for 56-14-48-4-.244 in 456 PA (115 games). I’ll respectively take the “over” across the board and target him as my C2 in early drafts.

The Question Marks

Questions: we sure do have a lot of them here! How much will Agustín Ramírez play? Can Rafael Flores Jr. rack up 450+ plate appearances between catcher, first base and DH and hit 20+ home runs after his impressive rookie season with 11 HR and a 14.6% BRL in 163 plate appearances? Can Detroit’s Eduardo Valencia carve out more than just a bench role? Is being on the Angels enough for Moisés Ballesteros to be more than just a strong-side platoon designated hitter? Did his unproductive rookie season drop his price down to a point where he currently being undervalued? Can Harry Ford ascend and steal more playing time from Keibert Ruiz? Will soon-to-be 20-year-old Cardinals prospect Rainiel Rodriguez find a way to crack their Opening Day roster since he’s pivoted to playing third base? His Draft Champions ADP is high because of his pedigree and potential impact, but that may subside when we get into managed drafts with FAAB come February. He hasn’t played ball beyond the Double-A level, though he was arguably the best hitter there in the second half of 2026. Plus, I hear he can make it rain. Plenty of questions with no clear answers for quite some time. That’s part of the reason many fantasy managers wait until at least the turn of the new year to start drafting. But if you’re reading this, it’s possible you’re a year-round fantasy fanatic and might be in some 50-round draft-and-holds like me. If you are, you know how much fun it is to research on-the-go and work through these tough draft decisions so many months ahead of the new season.

Recap

Undervalued: Langeliers (ATH), Herrera (STL), Smith (LAD), Basallo (BAL), Teel (CHW)

Overvalued: Hicks (TB), Rutschman (BOS), Perez (KC), Salas (SD)

Next up will be the first basemen.