Early 1B Rankings with Commentary
by Paul Sporer
February 6, 2018
With such a solid response to the commentary added to my starting pitcher ranks last week, I want to do the same for the other positions and today I’ve got my first base rankings ready to go. In addition to the commentary, I’ve also highlighted the tier breakdowns as I see them. I didn’t do this with the SPs, but my February update will include that. We are also going to be rolling out our composite rankings in the coming weeks with several Rotographs authors contributing so stay tuned for those. Each colored bar represents the start of a new tier.
Let me know what you think in the comments below. Who is your favorite mid-round target (starting with Santana) at the position?
February 1B Rankings
| RK | PLAYER | TEAM | ADP | COMMENT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paul Goldschmidt | ARI | 4 | Pwr production of peers plus bankable SBs (17 per 600 PA) |
| 2 | Joey Votto | CIN | 19 | Consistently excellent and unlocked extra pop w/FB% boost |
| 3 | Freddie Freeman | ATL | 22 | As young ATL tm develops, the R/RBI outlook improves |
| 4 | Anthony Rizzo | CHC | 25 | Not flashy, but fantastic every yr; two 10+ SBs yrs in last three |
| 5 | Jose Abreu | CWS | 43 | Quietly led the AL in total bases (343, 2 more than J.Ramirez) |
| 6 | Cody Bellinger | LAD | 24 | Elite pwr & solid spd cover AVG concerns fueled by K% |
| 7 | Edwin Encarnacion | CLE | 57 | Was every bit as good as Hoskins during Rhys’s run (click) |
| 8 | Wil Myers | SD | 72 | The steals keep him in this tier (48 since ’16) |
| 9 | Miguel Cabrera | DET | 95 | Injuries ravaged ’17, but I can’t bury him off one season |
| 10 | Eric Hosmer | FA | 69 | Hosmer > Miggy at same price, but 2 rds later I’ll take Miggy |
| 11 | Rhys Hoskins | PHI | 51 | The excitement is out of hand at this ADP, but worth top 100 |
| 12 | Carlos Santana | PHI | 173 | Tops a weird middle tier & presents a great value at this ADP |
| 13 | Ian Desmond | COL | 115 | A chance to be cheaper Wil Myers in Coors if healthy |
| 14 | Matt Carpenter | STL | 186 | Keep a close eye on news re: shoulder & adjust accordingly |
| 15 | Marwin Gonzalez | HOU | 115 | Ranked high bc of 1B, OF, SS, 2B elig., but T4/5 among 1B |
| 16 | Joey Gallo | TEX | 116 | Chip-in SBs can’t counter devastatingly low AVG |
| 17 | Josh Bell | PIT | 178 | Pulled the ball a lot more, trading some AVG for HR |
| 18 | Ryan Zimmerman | WAS | 126 | Surge was health-related as skills have always been there |
| 19 | Jose Martinez | STL | 278 | Petriello highlighted how we could see a huge season here |
| 20 | Justin Smoak | TOR | 147 | Massive K% drop fueled the breakout |
| 21 | Matt Olson | OAK | 120 | Hit 47 HR in 559 PA in AAA/MLB, but 26 HR per 600 PA in MILB |
| 22 | Trey Mancini | BAL | 159 | Posted a .306 AVG in 2053 MILB PA |
| 23 | Justin Bour | MIA | 192 | Had 73 RBI in 129 gms when MIA scored 3.8 R/G in ’15 |
| 24 | Yulieski Gurriel | HOU | 209 | Maybe pair him w/Gallo as 1B/CI to boost AVG w/a late pick |
| 25 | Gregory Bird | NYY | 155 | Love the talent, but hype could go too far again so be careful |
| 26 | Eric Thames | MIL | 187 | Line w/out Apr: .226/.335/.455, ~30 HR/60 RBI/80 R over 162 |
| 27 | Yonder Alonso | CLE | 308 | Breakout supported by real chg. & new park/lineup will help |
| 28 | Chris Davis | BAL | 248 | One-time top HR hitter couldn’t get in on HR craze w/just 26 |
| 29 | Hanley Ramirez | BOS | 328 | Only 18 gms at 1B so doesn’t qualify everywhere |
| 30 | Brandon Belt | SF | 304 | Would’ve had first 20 HR seas. w/health; avg of 126 gms/seas. |
| 31 | Logan Morrison | FA | 286 | Had 38 HR in 601 PA after 31 in previous 901; needs a team |
| 32 | Ryon Healy | SEA | 193 | Just 6 HR in final 282 PA (Jul-Oct); likely to bat low in SEA |
| 33 | Wilmer Flores | NYM | 322 | Improvements v. RH offers hope of age-26 breakout |
| 34 | Joe Mauer | MIN | 392 | AVG return thrust him back to fantasy relevance as CI/UT |
| 35 | Matt Adams | WAS | 469 | Surged w/ATL and will face almost only RH (.896 OPS in ’17) |
| 36 | Mark Reynolds | FA | 384 | At worst a home-only option if he returns to COL |
| 37 | Lucas Duda | FA | 444 | Career .249/.356/.486 w/30 HR per 600 PA v. RH |
| 38 | Adam Lind | FA | 492 | Under .883 OPS v. RH just once in last five seasons |
| 39 | Tommy Joseph | PHI | 535 | No favorable split & PT will be sparse w/Santana addition |
| 40 | Adrian Gonzalez | NYM | 526 | Age-36 coming off career-worst season (69 wRC+ in 252 PA) |
| 41 | Mitch Moreland | BOS | 402 | Just 1 yr of 100+ wRC+ in his last 5; AL-Only option at best |
| 42 | Mike Napoli | FA | 545 | Had 4 months under a .175 AVG & career-high 34% K |
Rizzo is great but I think he is a little better in real life than in fantasy because his lowish babips seem to be for real.his k rates are super good but still he only hits like 270 due to babip.
Rizzo is bad
I’m not sure if this comment is meant to suggest he should be lower. He probably is better IRL v. fantasy because of his OBP and defense, but otherwise he’s .280-30-100-90 a year the last four seasons. In two of them he has double-digit SBs. I’m not even a huge Rizzo fan, but he’s a stud in the midst of his prime.
Great list, Paul. I agree with Dominikk85 in spirit, but I also can’t see who would jump from below Rizzo to above him. Abreu has a marginal lead in average, but loses in every other category. AND Abreu is reliant on high BABIPs which may disappear without warning.
Would Rizzo having 2b eligibility in an OBP 5×5 league make him a top 5 player?