Drew Hutchison, 2015 Breakout Candidate
After undergoing Tommy John surgery over the summer of 2012, Drew Hutchison returned to the mound the following year, making 15 starts in the minors. Then in 2014, he arrived to spring training supposedly throwing harder. The positive news got me excited, and intrigued me to the point that I boldly predicted he would win a rotation spot and earn positive 12-team mixed league fantasy value.
The apparent velocity spike was backed by his spring training performance. He struck out 19 of the 55 batters he faced, for an impressive 34.5% strikeout rate. We know to put little stock in spring training results, but strikeouts are the one metric I still do pay attention to. Since the strikeouts were evidently supported by a real change, I then named Hutchison as one of four breakout candidates based on spring strikeout rate surges.
Unfortunately, Hutchison didn’t exactly enjoy that breakout performance. Or maybe he did. It depends of course on which metrics you choose to focus on. On the one hand, he posted an ugly 4.48 ERA, which alone meant that he was essentially replacement level in mixed leagues and likely added and dropped all season long. On the other hand, that came along with a 1.26 WHIP and 184 strikeouts, both of which contributed positive value to fantasy teams.
Even more telling though is that his strikeout rate did rise, though we have just one short season to compare it to. He struck out nearly a batter per inning, and I’m quite confident in saying that the mark was well above even the most optimistic of expectations and projections. And while he was an extreme fly ball pitcher, he maintained about a league average walk rate. Put all together, his SIERA was nearly a full run lower than his actual ERA at 3.59.
Oddly, it’s not so obvious why his ERA was so much higher. His BABIP and HR/FB rate both sat right around the league average. His LOB% was the primary culprit, but even that mark was just a percentage point below average. Perhaps given his fly ball tendency, he gave up a higher rate of doubles and triples than most and the homers he did allow just so happened to be of the multiple-run variety more often than not. He doesn’t even need to improve his skills for his ERA to improve significantly.
In the intro, I talked about talk of Hutchison’s velocity improving during the spring. On the season, his fastball velocity did improve over his 2012 mark, though only marginally, and certainly not to the degree it sounded like based on all the spring rumblings. His fastball did reach a peak velocity of about a mile per hour more than in 2012. So it’s still good news, even if I was expecting just a bit better.
When inspecting his pitch results, it appears that he has real strikeout ability. His fastball induced swinging strikes at a well above average clip, representing quite the jump from his short 2012. The velocity increase likely has something to do with that. And both his slider and changeup are solid pitches, generating SwStk% marks in the mid-teens. The improved changeup compared to 2012 may have once again been helped by his increased fastball velocity. But with three average or above average pitches, his strikeout rate shouldn’t regress too far.
Another non-obvious path to strikeouts is the potential for a jump in his called strike rate. According to the leaderboard at Baseball-Reference, he posted the second lowest looking strike rate (L/Str) in baseball. Looking strike rate is definitely a skill, but not as reliable as swinging strike rate. So while it’s unlikely he suddenly comes close to leading the league in the category, he should definitely get more called strikes next season. And guess who recently signed with the Blue Jays? Russell Martin, who finished 10th among catchers this season in the RAA catcher framing metric. So Hutchison should enjoy a nice boost in called strike rate next year.
The only real concern is that he threw just 57 innings in 2013 after returning from surgery, and is coming off an enormous jump to 184.2 innings this year. But assuming he stays healthy and is good for another 180+ innings, then he’s going to prove to be quite the bargain in drafts/auctions.
Mike Podhorzer is the founder of ProjectingX IQ, an advanced fantasy baseball analytics platform that transforms projection data and in-season performance signals into actionable intelligence. He is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year and three-time Tout Wars champion. He is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Follow Mike on X@MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.
Last year Drew Hutchison’s ERA never seemed to mesh with how he performed.
I think why it was so high was that there were a couple games that were absolute clunkers, but also I can think of some games where he would cruise for 4 or 5 innings and then give up a couple hits and a three run home run (he did this against the Phillies)
I agree. Hutchison is a hard-throwing strikeout pitcher with three quality pitches and reasonably good control. As Mike pointed out, he will enjoy a larger strike-zone in 2015 with Martin.
His HR/9 was high, which makes sense b/c he is a flyball pitcher. That # probably won’t regress too much. But if his K% climbs and BB% (which wasn’t terrible) falls due to the larger strike-zone, Hutchison could be a very solid starter in OttoNeu leagues.
Hutchison should join teammate Marcus Stroman and non-teammate Carlos Carrasco as breakout candidates. Somebody is going to be the next Kluber… my money is on one of these guys.
“His HR/9 was high, which makes sense b/c he is a flyball pitcher. That # probably won’t regress too much.”
This. His FB% of 45 was 4th in MLB. That combined with a league average-ish HR/FB will inflate the ERA.
I believe in the K’s, and I think the BB rate could improve.
I don’t see him as an ottoneu guy with his high HR/9, that really hurts in ottoneu. I think I’d rather own him in traditional leagues where he can be valuable even if he gives up a few dingers.
I see your point. If Hutchison were playing for Pittsburgh, SD, SF, LA(NL) or Seattle, his flyball tendencies would not hurt quite as much as they do at Rogers Centre.
But HR are his only serious weakness, so if he can reduce his FB% even a bit he would start to look like an OttoNeu standout.
My guess is that Russell Martin helps him enough via a larger strike zone that Hutchison will be a reliable starter in 2015.
But my guesses are often wrong, so I reserve the right to deny I ever posted this comment if Hutchison flames out next year.
He’s great vs RHB but awful vs LHB. RH bats have a 273 wOBA against him while LHB are 353. The K:BB drops from nearly 5 vs RHB to 2 vs LHB. He’s got a respectable HR rate vs RHB, but vs LHB he gets destroyed (17 in 99 2/3 IP vs LHB).
There’s your problem right there. He doesn’t have a legit weapon to use against lefties.
Another issue is that despite the extreme fly ball nature, he’s not inducing a lot of weak contact. An 8.4 IFFB% isn’t anything special. If he’s getting a ton of fly balls, you’d ideally want him to be getting a lot of pop ups as well. Of the 88 qualifying starters, he ranks 56 in IFFB, which is below average.
Put those two together and it seems pretty clear why he’s allowing more runs than FIP/XFIP/Sierra expect him to. Overall his numbers look good, but he doesn’t induce much weak contact, and he gets killed by lefty bats. If he could develop a strong change up or out pitch vs LH bats you could see some definite improvement, but until that point I’d expect his ERA to be higher than his FIP/XFIP/Sierra.
SIERA accounts for batted ball profile
His 2014 reallly reminds me of kluber 2013
His game scores were all over the map; probably one of the most variable of any starting pitcher last year. He’d shutout a team one start then give up five runs the next.
i streamed him a few times, absolute torture
He not only gets Martin, he gets the best defensive third baseman will help too.
He had Lawrie so it’s not like he had some bum there. Although he wasn’t on the field nearly enough :(.
Too bad so many of these great candidates are pitching in the worst possible division
one factor to consider- his hard-hit AVG is pretty high. He looks more like Danny Salazar, a guy who will struggle cuz his fastball is too straight and gets hit hard.
I love the other factors and think he will put up a high 3s ERA but an elite breakout is not in the cards unless he gets the HH rate down.
First off, where are you finding this data? Second, that’s just a result. Is it predictive? If he had a high hard-hit average, does that mean he will again? That’s what we should care about. Is there some lack of skill resulting in hard hit balls more frequently than others?
His numbers in day games were atrocious.
A 1.26 WHIP does not in any way contribute positively to a winning fantasy team. 1.26 is well below average for a 12 team fantasy SP.
Corey Kluber’s 2013 WHIP was exactly 1.26.
Couple thoughts here as in a 5×5 dynasty I recently traded a couple decent prospects for Hutchison (before the Martin signing!) and fell in love with what I think he can do next year.
Although his ERA climbed from 4.16 first-half to 4.96 second-half, he improved his F-Strike% from 57.9% to 61.4%. and SwK% from 9.8% to 12.4%. The major improvement in his swing metric resulted from more misses INSIDE THE STRIKE ZONE. Z-Contact% fell from 88.6% to 85.6%.
F-Strike% is a very important control metric. Shandler’s people recently did a good abstract on the relation from F-Strike% to BB/9. Based on his minor league numbers, further improvement in control here is very possible if not likely.
For a guy making his first trip off Tommy John, these second half skill gains are very promising signs to me. Look, guys with great skills do not always figure out how to pitch properly. It takes times and experience. The pitch framing gap between Dioner Navarro and Russell Martin is very large and Martin will also be very helpful teaching a guy like Hutchison how to get guys out.
I think there’s a good pitcher lurking here at a super cheap price in next year’s re-drafts.