Downgrade Valverde?

With one of the bigger signings of the winter completed last week in Prince Fielder joining Detroit, one of the more talked about fantasy storylines is Miguel Cabrera’s likely new third base eligibility. Jim Leyland has stated Cabrera wants to and will play third base, which helps his draft stock but could potentially hurt the stock of Tiger pitchers.

Jose Valverde may be affected more than the rest of the group. Converting 49 saves in as many opportunities will have Valverde’s draft value at an all-time high, with Mock Draft Central drafts currently averaging Valverde as the seventh reliever taken. If Cabrera is being drafted due to his likely third and first base eligibility, it is being assumed that he actually will appear at third base at least semi-regularly. While he only needs a bit more than a handful of games to qualify at third, Leyland’s comments give confidence in constructing drafts around the thought that Cabrera will play third base often. This means other players should be drafted under that same assumption, such as Valverde. There is at least some risk that Cabrera is the Tiger’s third baseman, which adds additional risk to Tiger pitchers.

As seen above, Valverde has seen his strikeout per nine rate drop in each of the past five seasons, with his strikeout per walk ratio decreasing from ’08-’10 — now sitting below league average for two straight seasons. In addition, the flamboyant closer netted a 37.1% ground ball rate from ’06-’08 and a rate of 46.1% over the past three years.

It seems as though age has affected Valverde, who will pitch at age 34 this season. He has become a different type of pitcher, remaining effective but needing to focus more on forcing weak contact as his walk rate rises and his strikeout rate declines. This has allowed him to record stellar results while recording poor peripheral statistics.

His career ERA-FIP split of .050 over 521.1 innings and eight season signals that the spread may be sustainable, but adding Cabrera to the left side of the infield may cause it to, at least somewhat, tighten. The steady increase in ground ball rates has helped him preserve a .240 BABIP over the past two years, fourth lowest in baseball with a minimum of 130 innings pitched. Cabrera jumping over to third should bump that number up if Valverde’s strikeout, walk, and ground ball trends continue.

Since 2003, Cabrera’s -4.5 UZR/150 is the 11th worst of any third baseman with at least 3,000 innings at the position. He has not played the position regularly since 2007, which was during his much thinner days. Contrast that to the player he will be replacing at third base, Brandon Inge, who posted the 12th best UZR/150 at 5.6 during that same span, and it is easy to expect a significant drop defensively at the hot corner. Both UZR and DRS point to Inge’s defense also being in a decline period, but he is still a significantly better defender, as his lowest career UZR/150 in any given season is -0.4, better than all but one of Cabrera’s years at the position.

Even first base will see a defensive downgrade. While Cabrera’s defense is still rather poor at first base, his career UZR/150 of -2.7 bests Fielder’s career -6.4 mark. The infield could be in even more trouble if Ryan Raburn appears in more games at second base this season, as he totaled just 56 games and 401 innings at second last year. Raburn’s career UZR/150 at second base is -23.8 over 777.2 innings. While he may not be as poor a defender as that number suggests, and defensive metrics are still to be used with some caution, a number so low points to very poor defense even if they have been treating him unfavorably.

Valverde should continue to pitch well, and his choke-hold lock on the closer position is a value not commonly factored in when evaluating the position for fantasy purposes. Even with those aspects included, his downward trending strikeout rate and upward trending ground ball tendencies provide a serious cause for concern. Valverde’s save percentage may appeal to some, but his diminishing peripherals, age, and Deteroit’s new defensive alignment are better to use when projecting future performance. Valverde could be valuable if he falls further in drafts, but over-drafting him can force an owner to miss out on a higher quality draft pick and maybe even a higher quality closer.