DFS Pitching Preview: May 17, 2022

Our pitching in MLB DFS isn’t just a source of fantasy points. The price tags on pitchers make it so they dictate the freedoms and restrictions of building our lineups. Before reading this article, it’s highly suggested that you read my article, “DFS Pitching Primer,” so the concepts discussed here make more sense.

That we’re not selecting the best players. We’re constructing the lineups which carry the most leverage without sacrificing many projected fantasy points.

This is a tough slate for pitching. There are four good pitchers, but none are great. And of those four, three have tough matchups and one is in Coors. Consult the projections and ownership closely. Don’t chase high ownership on a mediocre play. Take the gamble on the lower-owned of your options.

ACES OF THE SLATE: Nathan Eovaldi and Logan Gilbert

Nathan Eovaldi was an ace in 2021 and carries a 3.04 SIERA this season, but the home runs have been plentiful. Eovaldi has been a launching pad to the tune of 2.03 HR/9 this season and squares off against a powerful Astros bunch that doesn’t strike out much at all. If Eovaldi had a double-digit K/9 baked into his stuff, we could gamble more comfortably, but he only has 9.59 since 2021.

Playing Eovaldi is playing the best pitcher on the slate. There isn’t some gaping hole in the Astros armor that we’re looking to exploit, as their active roster carries a 121 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers since 2020. We’re simply taking a stand on really good pitching beating great hitting.

We can take a step down in efficacy (while paying a bit more) in Logan Gilbert. His K/9 is about equal to Eovaldi and he’s only allowing 0.71 HR/9 this season, but he does face the power-packed Blue Jays and has really shaky command this season, gifting 3.32 BB/9 to start things off. That said, Gilbert came up with 60-grade command and only had 2.11 BB/9 last season, so the small sample is likely his bigger foe than himself.

If you can’t tell, I’d rather bank on the hope of improved command against the Jays over the hope of improved power prevention against the Astros. The Jays are a more neutral strikeout matchup and their active roster’s 109 wRC+ against right-handed pitching since 2020 is a few ticks less scary than that of the Astros.

CHEAP POTENTIAL: José Berríos and JT Brubaker

Jose Berrios has been way too cheap lately, but he might be priced right tonight. The Mariners are a sneaky-tough matchup with a wRC+ comparable to the Jays and an Astros-esque 19.7% strikeout rate. Berrios not being a fireballer, this is far scarier to me than Gilbert and Eovaldi, because I can’t find the path to fantasy points here. Berrios only has 9.08 K/9 since 2021. His control and power prevention are fine, but his ceiling is capped by the lack of strikeouts here.

I’d rather just spend on JT Brubaker are the same price. He sucks in almost every way, but the Cubs suck, too, and the wind might be blowing in at Wrigley to a significant degree. Just like Wrigley wind blowing out can turn the park into Coors Field, the wind blowing in can turn the place into Marlins Park.

The Cubs active roster comes in with a 25.2% strikeout rate against right-handers since 2020 and their wRC+ is only 95. Brubaker has control and power prevention issues, but his 9.43 K/9 since 2021 plays very well here. I’m less concerned about command plus power prevention issues against a team that strikes out over 24.0% or so.

GAMBLE, GAMBLE: Alex Cobb

Alex Cobb brings a 2.40 groundball:flyball ratio since 2021 into Coors Field. His 9.98 K/9 over that stretch is higher than the other four pitchers we’ve discussed and his 0.48 HR/9 is the lowest. The Rockies’ active roster’s 84 wRC+ against right-handers since 2020 is the best matchup on the entire slate.

Why the hell not play Alex Cobb?

There isn’t one pitcher on this slate who has a SIERA better than 3.50, no pitcher under $7,500 on DraftKings with a SIERA under 4.20, no K/9 better than 10.00, or a K-BB% over 21.0%. Everything is gross to some degree. This isn’t a bad slate. This is just a complex slate.





Alex Sonty is a professional DFS and poker player, while contributing to RotoGrinders and FanGraphs, as well as serving as a part-time political science professor in Chicago, IL. He’s been playing fantasy sports since 1996 and entered the DFS realm in 2014, currently playing high-stakes MLB and NFL cash games and GPPs. He is a Chicago Tribune and SB Nation alum, while holding a J.D./M.A. and L.L.M. from DePaul University.

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