Deadline Deals: A Dozen Value Decliners

Just to be clear, the following players are far from the worst players traded. I’m focusing on the guys moving down in value. Some might be having great seasons (e.g. Brandon Drury) but have the biggest down arrows attached to them.

1. Raisel Iglesias (ATL): Simply, Iglesias will back up Kenley Jansen. With Jansen not being able to go back-to-back games and his propensity to get injured, Iglesias (4.04 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 12.1 K/9), Iglesias should remain rostered in deeper formats.

2. Lou Trivino (NYY): Trivino had turned around his season with a 3.18 ERA, 10.6 K/9, and 1.53 WHIP since June 17th, but he’s just going to be another arm in the Yankees bullpen. Easy drop.

3. Whit Merrifield/Santiago Espinal (TOR): While Merrifield will provide the team with a shot of talent, one of these two will need to try to stay awake on the bench. While Merrifield’s bat has been a disappointment (.643 OPS), he continues to provide a decent number of steals (15 SB). On the other hand, Espinal has been a pleasant surprise (.263 AVG, 6 HR, 5 HR) by providing steady production.

I might hold both for a week to see how the playing time works out but I’m guessing Merrifield will be the only one to remain rosterable for his stolen bases.

4. Jhoan Duran/Emilio Pagán/Tyler Duffey (MIN): With Jorge López getting the Save last night, he looks to be the closer but I expect Duran to accumulate a few since he has been a top-10 reliever this season (2.11 ERA, 11.3 K/9, 0.96).

5. Yuli Gurriel/Trey Mancini/Michael Brantley (HOU): If everyone gets healthy, one of these three will have to sit every game. Yordan Alvarez is going to start at DH or in the OF. None of the three can play center field.

As for talent, here are the trio’s projected Depth Chart rest-of-season OPS.

Name: Proj OPS
Gurriel: .731
Mancini: .752
Brantley: .774

Pretty close. I’d take a chance on Mancini out of the three since he could cover more positions.

6. Harrison Bader (NYY): From what I can tell, Bader is going to be a defensive replacement or pinch runner. Fantasy worthless at this point.

7. Matt Vierling/Brandon Marsh, (PHI): With the addition of Brandon Marsh, Vierling’s full-time at-bats are over in centerfield. After digging into their splits, they should form an outfield platoon. Here are their career OPS against different handedness pitches.

Name: vsLHP, vRHP
Vierling: .760, .633
Marsh: .537, .698

Neither one is close to being an average hitter, but the combination does get them there. The splitting of time does take a chunk out of their fantasy value.

8. Brandon Drury/Jurickson Profar/Wil Myers (SDP): I don’t know how the playing time will work out between these three. Ideally, the Padres would just bench Myers and let the other two play, but it’s tough to tell at this point.

Additionally, Fernando Tatis Jr. should be off the IL soon and then Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 doesn’t have a permanent starting position. I’m sure injuries and performance might clarify the situation but right now it’s pretty muddy.

9. Andre Pallante/Dakota Hudson/Jack Flaherty/Matthew Liberatore/Steven Matz (STL): The Cardinals beefed up their starting staff with José Quintana and Jordan Montgomery. The pair have been respectable this season with Montgomery having the 42nd best K%-BB% and José Quintana at 51st (min 100 IP). Both are comparable to Miles Mikolas (46th) and Adam Wainwright (54th).

Having these four solid arms means only one other starter into the mix. I’m sure the Cardinals want it to eventually be Flaherty, so everyone else will be fighting over scraps.

10. Bobby Dalbec/Franchy Cordero (BOS): With Eric Hosmer and Tommy Pham being added, Dalbec heads to the bench while Cordero has already been sent back to AAA.

11. Brad Hand/Seranthony Domínguez/Corey Knebel (PHI): With the addition of David Robertson, the chances for this trio to accumulate Saves has been watered down. I might hold Dominguez to see if he can vulture enough Saves but immediately move on from the other two.

12. Tyler Naquin/Mark Canha (NYM): I thought Naquin would remain on the strong side of a platoon with Canha and keep most of his fantasy value, but last night against a righty, Naquin sat. Now I think the pair might be closer to a 50/50 playing time split thereby destroying both of their fantasy values. Also, it will be tough for either one to squeeze time out of the DH of Daniel Vogelbach and Darin Ruf 러프.

While Naquin has struggled with injuries this year (COVID, quadriceps), he’s performed as expected with 7 HR, 3 SB, and a .249 AVG. Canha has put up similar numbers at 7 HR, 2 SB, and a .270 AVG.

Both will likely be drops in most formats.

Missed the cut: Eddie Rosario, Victor Reyes, Willi Castro, Luke Voit

Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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1 year ago

For saves + holds leagues, it could be that Trivino does not see a large decline in value compared to his value on the A’s.

1 year ago
Reply to  Timmeh49

Same with Iglesias. Heck, with how bad the Angels have been, I’m super happy that he moved to a winning team for the holds.