Daily Starters – Thursday, September 6th

Last September, Jeff and I spent last September highlighting daily starters you could consider picking up for your playoffs and roto stretch run. We’ll be doing the same again this year starting with tomorrow’s super-lite 4-game slate.

(I’ll be citing the FantasyPros roster rates)

Luis Castillo – CIN v. SD (49%)

Castillo entered July with a 5.85 ERA, but has since put together a 10-start run of 3.23 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 55.7 IP with a 26% K rate and 4% BB rate. Two 5 ER duds during the run push the ERA a bit, but he bounced back strong from each one. The Arizona one was kinda weird, too, because he bookended four perfect innings with the five runs in an inning and two-thirds.

The bottom line is that he’s pitching like the guy I thought we’d see all year when I slotted him as a top 25 arm. The Padres aren’t the walkover they’ve been for most of the year thanks to a power infusion (tied for 6th most HRs in L30 day v. righties w/27), but they are still 25th with a .302 wOBA so they’re still someone you’re eager to go against with any capable arm.

Anibal Sanchez – ATL at ARI (45%)

Do you realize Sanchez still has a sub-3.00 ERA in 108.7 IP this year? Lowering the qualifying threshold to 100 innings, Sanchez’s 2.98 mark is 18th in the league, sandwiched between his opponent (Zack Greinke 2.97) and his opponent’s teammate (Patrick Corbin 3.06). After looking like a Home Run Derby pitcher for three years (1.8 HR/9 in 2015-17), he’s down to a perfectly palatable 1.1 mark as he’s curbed four-seamers for his cutter with great results.

The cutter isn’t brand new, but this is the first year he’s really embraced it with a 23% usage. Arizona is actually sitting just below San Diego in wOBA v. righties over the last month with a .301 mark and they are just 26th for the year at .303. Sanchez heads to SF after this start so I’m hanging on beyond this year.

Shane Bieber – CLE at TOR (37%)

I wrote up Trevor Williams yesterday digging deeper on how he’s been performing so well despite otherwise unspectacular skills, but Bieber shows the other end of the spectrum. He has a healthy 20% K-BB rate, but just a 4.66 ERA/1.37 WHIP combo. He’s still too hittable and showing that distinction between control and command. He has control – he can hit the zone all day, but his ability to put the ball where he wants to limit hard contact just isn’t there yet.

The spot starting landscape isn’t good enough to ignore him, though. He does have a decent 4.28 ERA/1.25 WHIP combo over his last six starts, along with 36 strikeouts in 33.7 IP. The Jays have a healthy .333 wOBA against righties in the last month, but they’re only hitting .251 so if he can limit the base hits, this will be a nice outing.

Eric Lauer – SD at CIN (8%)

He’s had flashes this year, including five no-hit innings his last time out, but this Cincinnati offense is too tough for me to take this shot. They are sixth in wOBA over the last 30 against lefties with a .336 mark and fifth on the season at .333 so don’t get fooled into thinking they’re 59-80 record makes them a team to pick on with spot starters.

Sam Gaviglio – TOR v. CLE (5%)

Nah. Cleveland’s offense has been middling a bit lately, but they’re still too good to use a starter with a 5.02 ERA in a spot start situation.