We’ve got a decent group to pick from despite an 8-game slate.
(I’ll be citing the FantasyPros roster rates)
Steven Matz – NYM v. MIA (27%)
Matz was having a good season with a 3.38 ERA through the first half, but opened the second half with four starts of a 13.17 ERA and probably fell off the radar for most, especially since he’s on a terrible team. He’s rallied back with four straight gems, posting a 2.25 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in 24 IP with a 29% K-BB rate. He has faced the Giants twice during that run and they’re baseball’s worst team against lefties in the second half (.264 wOBA, 26% K rate), but he gets a Marlins team that has a .300 wOBA in that same time (21st).
Austin Gomber – STL v. LAD (34%)
Gomber was inserted into the rotation full time in early August and has handled himself well, though his 2.77 ERA doesn’t quite pair up with his 1.44 WHIP and I’d expect the former to surge before the latter smooths out. He has a meager 10% K-BB rate during this run (39 IP). Despite the mediocre skills, he has delivered quality starts in four of his last five and the one that wasn’t came against the Dodgers (5 IP/2 ER). Be careful here.
Mike Leake – SEA at LAA (23%)
The volatility of Leake can be seen in his 2H earned run counts: 2, 3, 3, 2, 0, 5, 6, and 0. When he’s off, you’re toast. The Angels are 11th in wOBA (.332) for the second half against righties, but they’re just 26th in the last two weeks (.285) with a 27% K rate so maybe this is a good spot to go with Leake.
Matt Shoemaker – LAA v. SEA (14%)
Shoemaker returned at the beginning of the month has a couple solid five-inning starts on his ledger heading into this outing against Seattle. The Mariners offense is ripe for the picking. They are 21st in wOBA against righties for the season and 25th during the second half.
Brett Anderson – OAK at BAL (9%)
Anderson is slated to return from a forearm strain injury on Thursday in time for this start and could be worth a look here. He’d run off a 1.86 ERA and 0.78 WHIP in six second half starts before a shellacking at Houston (2.7 IP/5 ER) followed by the DL trip. The Orioles are just 26th in wOBA against lefties during the second half with a 25% K rate (which could really help Anderson as he has just a 15% mark during his 2H run).
Mike Montgomery – CHC at WAS (9%)
I really want to like Montgomery and he continues to find success (3.59 ERA in 238.3 IP since the start of last year), but an 8% K-BB rate keeps me from fully diving in. Meanwhile, it doesn’t help things that the Nationals are on fire against lefties of late with an MLB-best .377 wOBA in the last two weeks including a 15% K rate and 21% BB rate.
Joe Ross – WAS v. CHC (3%)
Ross is returning from Tommy John and tried to make his debut on Friday, but it was washed out after an inning. He could be on a tight pitch count and the Cubs are a strong offense, so I’m passing here, but I will be watching him to see how his stuff looks.