Daily Fantasy Strategy — May 11 — For Draftstreet

Did you have a good week? I had a good week. Unfortunately, that week could have been better, and that can sometimes be a frustrating part of daily fantasy, but it’s often a necessary evil depending on your situation in life and general disposition toward risk.

What I mean is, I had a handful of double-ups this week where I scored well enough to place in a tournament setting (not across the board but, generally, they were strong enough to expect a return). So, instead of getting the appreciable payout from a tournament format, I was left with “just” the double-up prize.

That can be disheartening and induce regret, but you have to play the way that suits you best. If you have a sizable bankroll and can handle the droughts that may come with tournament play then by all means, play those and bask in the payout when you win. For the less confident player, the one with a smaller bankroll or one who is simply risk-averse, double-ups and head-to-heads are probably a more favorable option.

Yes, you’ll occasionally kick yourself for missing out on a big pot, but the inverse would be true if you played tournies and “would have doubled up.” Stay within your means, personality and range of confidence.

The Daily Five
Aaaron Harang – $13,391
I think I’m gonna be sick, but stick with me here. The over/under is set at just 7 and the Braves are -180 favorites, so Vegas clearly thinks something’s up here. The Cubs are posting a lowly .286 wOBA against righties so far this season and strikeout 23.1 percent of the time, while Harang has actually been fairly solid, somehow finding his way to strikeouts and trimming well-hit balls. I don’t love it, but the bookmakers are smarter than me.

Robbie Erlin – $11,916
Again, as a baseline we turn to Vegas: The over/under is set at 7 and the game is essentially a pick-’em. Erlin’s 4.95 ERA masks some strong peripherals, and the Marlins have been just average against southpaws. What’s more, Erlin’s low ground ball rate should hurt less at home, where he has a .253 wOBA against in his career compared to a .380 mark on the road.

Orioles Stack – The O’s draw Jarred Cosart, who is about what he’s shown so far with his 4.50 ERA, right in line with his 4.59 career FIP and 4.52 xFIP. If that seems surprising, it’s because he had a lucky 1.95 ERA in 60 innings last season as a rookie despite a K:BB ratio below one. He’s not awful by any means, but the Orioles, especially those who don’t mind a steady diet of cutters, should be fine.
Matt Wieters – $6,852 (crushing righties)
Nick Markakis – $6,655 (hitting righties well, also feasts on cutters)
Jonathan Schoop – $4,243 (maybe not much upside but has fared well against righties and cutters so far)

Naturally, Wieters and Schoop are sitting today (I wrote this Saturday night). I like St. Louis as a stack today, too, for whatever help that is at this late update.

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