Daily Fantasy Strategy – 7/4 – For Draftstreet

Happy America Day from Canada!

For those of you who plan on spending your Independence Day doing the most American thing possible (drinking beer and watching baseball), DraftStreet has provided early start time pools as well as late start time pools. So you can root your picks along while you watch all day.

And this wouldn’t be a July 4 fantasy baseball column without a bad segue about fireworks – if you’re not planning on going anywhere to watch them, tune in to San Diego at Boston, where Fenway is sure to provide just that.

The weather is pegged at 89-degrees for tomorrow’s game, with a 12MPH wind blowing out to center field. Eric Stults and Allan Webster take the hill against each other and both will just be looking to escape without much damage to their ERAs. Granted, that’s a pretty easy task for Webster’s 9.50 mark, but at 3.51 Stults isn’t a safe play either – he’s allowing 40% of balls in play to go in the air, a risky proposition today.

Since 2008, there have been 22 games played in Fenway at 85-degrees or warmer with at least a 10-degree wind (in any direction). The average ERA in those 44 starts is 5.57 with a 1.65 WHIP and over one homerun per nine innings. The average Game Score has been 43 and only five pitchers have managed double-digit fantasy points (the average was 3.0). That’s tough sledding for any hurler and a fine day for hitters.

The Daily Five
Carlos Quentin – $7,630
Unfortunately for those looking to pick on Webster, the Padres don’t have many players who fare well against righties. Enter the split-neutral Quentin, who has a .381 wOBA against right-handers this year. The case for the match up was laid out in the preamble.

Jonny Gomes – $7,274
Though Stults is better than Webster, you still have to like the chances for Red Sox righties to pull something in the air off the southpaw. The Monster and the weather should take over from there. I’ve been beating my head against the wall with Gomes recommendations it feels like, but he’s hitting lefties decent and is underpriced given his power potential. If you can make room in the budget for a $10k hitter, Laser Show is a nice target, too.

Daniel Murphy – $6,715
The Mets and Diamondbacks face similar conditions to the Boston game, and Ian Kennedy has had a lot of trouble keeping the ball out of the air and in the park. Nearing 800 career innings, it’s tough to expect the gopheritis to regress. Murphy has a terrific last name and a .346 wOBA against righties on the year. He doesn’t quite put the ball in the air as much as we’d like to see but he’s been hitting the ball consistently well all season (21% line drive rate, 35% fly ball rate). His price is driven down by a pretty horrific June but I’m still a believer in the talent.

Carlos Gonzalez – $8,653
Chris Capuano in Coors Field? Carlos Gonzalez at a league-average price despite having a .377 wOBA against lefties? Don’t mind if I do.

Chris Archer – $11,078
There are a lot of pitchers that either face a weak team in a tough environment or a good team in a decent environment today, and that’s confused further by some bad pitchers playing bad offenses. You’ve got your pick, but a lot of it comes down to risk preference. I’ve pegged Sterling Archer at a roughly median price tag because the Astros are atrocious against righties and strike out a boatload. Archer’s walked too many men so far but has the strikeout ability to play up in this one.

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