Crowdsourcing Results: Morrow and Bruce

by
November 12, 2010

Alright, let’s take a look at your thoughts on where Brandon Morrow and Jay Bruce will be drafted this coming year.

Brandon Morrow
My Vote: 12
Average: 10.7
Median: 11
Standard Dev: 3.56

This was actually really interesting if you had the ability, as I did, to sit around and watch the average move throughout the day. For the first few hours, we were hovering around the start of the ninth round, but that moved back to around the tenth as the day wore on, and eventually reached it’s final destination in the second day.

I’m not surprised by your votes, because this puts Brandon Morrow squarely in the top-150, and makes him a number three or four starter on most rosters. I wondered how much owners were assuming his ERA will drop, as that will ultimately be what dictates his position, and your votes seem to dictate that the thought is it will be around the 4.00 mark.

Jay Bruce
My Vote: 6
Average: 7.7
Median: 7
Standard Dev: 2.49

Just like what happened to Morrow, the average rose as the day wore on. For the first couple of hours, the average was in the middle of the sixth round, and we may even be closer to round eight by the time this goes up. Also, I do like the smaller deviation from the mean that we saw with Bruce, giving me more confidence that the seventh round is indeed where he will end up.

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Assuming he does go in the seventh, that means people are expecting about 30 homers with the same average and relatively similar counting stats. That’s about what he’ll provide, so you’re not going to get much value picking Bruce in the seventh.





 

Zach is the creator and co-author of RotoGraphs' Roto Riteup series, and RotoGraphs' second-longest tenured writer. You can follow him on twitter.

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Nolan Ryan
15 years ago

It makes since that the player with the smaller average would have a smaller standard deviation. If you put CarGo on this, his sd is going to be tiny, if even above zero (if any people that think he will make it out of the first).

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Zach SandersMember since 2020
15 years ago
Reply to  Nolan Ryan

That’s true when you get guys going in the super early rounds, and somewhat applicable to Bruce. I do think it means something, even if it is diminished.

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