Comparing San Diego & Tampa Bay SP Usage 2018-20
With news of the Blake Snell trade to San Diego (covered here and here by our fine folks at FG and Podhorzer will have a fantasy piece out Tuesday), there is a lot of chatter about his workload now that he’s out of Tampa Bay. This isn’t a particularly new issue – he didn’t complete six innings once in the regular season – but it all came to a head in Game 6 of the World Series when Snell was removed after 5 1/3 brilliant innings, allowing just a run on two hits with nine strikeouts and zero walks in 73 pitches.
We need not relitigate the move, but when news struck of Snell’s trade out of Tampa Bay to the San Diego Padres, many of those against the World Series move rejoiced at the idea of the reins at least being loosened if not fully removed in his new home. Let’s see if we can gain some insight on how much of that is wishful thinking versus likely or at least possibly coming true.
| Team | Inn. | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| SDP | 1921 | 25th |
| TBR | 1584.3 | 30th |
Put me down for a fat “Not great, Bob!” on that one.
Looking specifically at outings of six-plus innings probably won’t change too much, but I’m curious to see how it breaks down.
| Team | 6+ Inn. App | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| SDP | 130 | 24th |
| TBR | 115 | 28th |
That looks pretty bad, but then I wondered: who would the Padres really consistently give 6+ inning outings to over this time period? Their best full season campaigns were probably Chris Paddack’s 2019 and Joey Lucchesi’s 2018, both just rookies who made 26 starts. They were not exactly pitching rich in 2018-19 and 2020 was a short season. Over the three-year period, the Rays starters were a full run better than the Padres (3.68 to 4.67).
The 2020 Padres made the playoffs due in large part to a strong rotation that saw them get 10+ starts out of four different pitchers. With capable arms, how inclined were they to rely on their starters in comparison to the Rays?
| Team | Inn. | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| SDP | 286 | 15th |
| TBR | 258 | 26th |
| Team | 6+ Inn. App | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| SDP | 22 | 8th |
| TBR | 9 | 28th |
I know 2020 is only a two-month season so it is hard to give this as much weight as 2018-19 evidenced by the fact that just 28 innings split them by 11 rankings, but it at least hints that when they have studs, they will likely use them.
Plus, it’s not like anyone is expecting Snell to become Lance Lynn all of sudden. If he can add 2-3 outs per start, it would make a real dent over the course of a full season. Even just taking the work since his 2018 Cy Young, he has a 33% K rate, 3.96 ERA, and 1.25 WHIP. Over the course of 25 starts (I’m not confident in a full 162-game season so let’s give him 25 in a shortened 5-ish month season), it’s an extra 20-25 innings of quality ratios along with 25-30 extra strikeouts.
It will be very interesting to see how the early draft market reacts to this trade. He is currently going 17th among pitchers and 53rd overall, just behind former teammate Tyler Glasnow. I think he will leapfrog Glasnow for sure and the hype may push him above Kenta Maeda sitting at 47th overall.
What about Park Factors?
As he noted in the 1st paragraph ,Pod will have that piece out tomorrow
While it seems like the AL East is a tougher hitting environment (and it probably is) he is changing leagues and familiarity. I think where he ranks right now is about right for him, and I’d certainly drop Darvish down in my rankings. Going from the NL Central where every team is below average with the bat to the NL West isn’t the easiest change, even if some of the ballparks are favorable. He is going to have likely at least a couple starts in Coors, and 4 or so starts against the Dodgers. While Snell will have those things too, I would keep him about the same because he has the chance to go deeper in games.
I think pitching in Tampa changes pitchers, since they know they likely will not go deep in games. I don’t know what numbers to look up to back it up, but I seem to recall a lot of games where Snell and Glasnow both had high pitch counts early in the game. My theory is because they know they won’t go deep in games they try to always make a perfect pitch, but to the extent where they end up throwing a lot more pitches. Who knows.
Should probably be noted that at least part of the team’s decision to pull Snell early has been driven by high pitch counts being the norm due to inefficiency in getting batters out. In his career, Snell has thrown at least 100 pitches in 37.6% of his appearances, at least 95 in 48.7%, at least 90 in 59.8%, and at least 85 in 67.5%. Appearances here include non-starts and any shorter starts where he was pulled for injury.
Typical struggles in the first inning have led to an average pitch count of 18.1 in his career for that inning with subsequent innings and accumulations looking as such:
Inn:Pitches per/Total thru
2: 16.8/34.9
3: 16.6/51.5
4: 16.0/67.4
5: 16.3/83.8
In his better starts the team should be able to get a sixth inning out of him, or even a couple of extra outs as you put it, helping to shore up the workload, but with uncertainty regarding performance over those handful of extra batters. In plenty of others he will make it awfully difficult to send back out there due to his above own average of pitches to get through five, and still others will see him unable to even reach that modest goal.
Can Blake Snell throw an extra dozen innings with the Padres than he would have with Tampa Bay? Sure, and going to a much friendlier division when it comes to good righty hitters can only help, but the impact appears muted until he can figure out how to get guys out without extending at bats.
As I mentioned above I feel it’s possible that the high pitch count might be a product of not being allowed to go deep. I’d bet we see lower pitch counts per ip this year
Great stuff as always, Sandy and I appreciate the thoughtful comment. I was going to get into Snell’s own issues w/his lack of IP but decided to keep it at just the team impact for now. You’re so right, though, and while it’s not explicit, I was loosely referring to his own issues when I said the Lynn thing bc barring a Darvishian change, he’s just going to be able to pile up IP until he gets more efficient.
Watching Snell pitch is an exercise in frustration. Pound for pound the stuff is as good as anyone the game has ever seen. Despite that firepower he pitches timid constantly afraid batters are going to crush his heater, and they may as well sit on it considering how good the secondaries are when sharp, but the more they see them the more they get on them. He’s still the young bull that wants to strike everybody out, and maybe the team plays a role there, but getting outs more efficiently should be his number one goal if he wants to avoid the plateau that sees him sit a notch or two below full potential. I hope the best for him in San Diego and beyond so that someday I can drive the hour or two to Cooperstown to show my kids one of the All Time Rays, but plenty of work to go before all that. Thanks for the kind words, Paul!
He’s going to have a normal pitch count in 2021. 90ish