Closers Update: Joe Nathan and Ryan Franklin
There’s no position more fungible on a baseball team than the closer. At other positions you can have middling to even below average success and still keep your job (see Bartlett, Jason). But, blow a few saves in a row? If you’re named anything other than Mariano Rivera you’re likely in trouble. That was the fate endured by Joe Nathan and Ryan Franklin over the weekend.
At the beginning of the season we ranked the closers by job security and Joe Nathan headed the Firm Grasps group with the footnote: “And Nathan is Nathan; Matt Capps is no obstacle for him if he’s healthy.” From his performance this season it’s reasonable to assume he is, in fact, not healthy. Nathan is only roughly one year removed from Tommy John’s surgery and it doesn’t appear like he’s fully recovered. Over the past two seasons his fastball velocity has averaged ~93.5mph, while this season it is just 91.2. The fastball his Nathan’s best pitch and he needs those extra tickets in velocity to help setup his slider. In his 5.1 IP this season he’s struck out only three batters while walking five, very un-Nathan like numbers considering his K/BB ratio hasn’t dipped below 4.00 since 2004. After blowing two saves in this weekend’s series against Tampa Bay, Nathan did the noble thing and asked that he be removed from the closer position in favor of Matt Capps.
Unlike a majority of teams, the Twins have a set up man who has had plenty of experience closing. Capps has racked up 110 saves in his career, mostly with the Pirates. The Twins traded for him last season and, along with Jon Rauch, helped the team fill the gap left by Nathan’s injury. 2010 was by far Capps best season, saving 42 games with a 2.47 ERA and 3.31 xFIP. In his first game as the new closer on Saturday he picked up the save against Tampa Bay. However, there’s no telling how long Capps will have the job. Once the Twins and Nathan feel he’s healthy enough to perform at optimal levels again he’ll regain his position. Until then I’d scoop up Matt Capps if any of your fellow owners have fallen asleep at the wheel over the past two days.
A team that doesn’t have the luxury of a Matt Capps in the bullpen is the St. Louis Cardinals. Ryan Franklin is struggling mightily, blowing four saves already. There’s also his ugly peripheral numbers that are infuriating fantasy owners: 11.57 ERA, 2 BB, and 2 K in 4.2 IP. A major culprit for Franklin’s struggles is his lack of swinging strikes. Last year his swinging strike percentage was 7.0. This year it’s a paltry 3.5 percent. He’s never been a high strikeout guy (career 4.99 K/9) so he needs all he help he can get. The Cardinals haven’t announced that Franklin has been replaced as the closer, but it’s only a matter of time. The successor would likely be Mitchell Boggs. The numbers for Boggs last season – a 3.61 ERA and 4.02 xFIP – were pretty good. Unlike Franklin, Boggs has a swinging strike percentage over 9.0. He isn’t a perfect solution, but seems to be the best option unless Tony Larussa wants to throw Eduardo Sanchez into the fire. It’s a developing situation you should keep your eye on, pouncing on whichever reliever is chosen in Franklin’s place
Erik writes for DraysBay and has also written for Bloomberg Sports. Follow him on Twitter @ehahmann.
why would boggs get the chance before motte?
I’m just going by what the STL beat writers are saying
Because motte only has one pitch. A fastball and it doesn’t move at all. Stl knows it.
Am I the only one who like’s Jason Motte’s stuff? I haven’t gotten a look at him this year and his small sample peripherals are ugly, so you can ignore this if he’s battling an injury or something.
If you saw Motte pitch, you would see the problem. He has a high-velocity but completely flat fastball, and terrible secondary pitches. His big fastball is often enough, but when hitters do catch up to it, it gets ugly fast.
Just like Bobby Parnell from the Mets. 98 mph straight heat with no movement.
Loved Mulholland Drive.
Forecaster had a warning flag next to Motte’s name and that’s good enough for me. Haven’t checked to see what is said about Boggs, but if I have to choose between the unknown or the not closer-worthy, I’ll take the former every time.
FYI – Boggs has abhorrent platoon splits
5.80 xFIP vs lefties last year
5.84 xFIP vs lefties career
If I’ve said it once, I’ve said it a million times……
DON’T PAY FOR SAVES IN A FANTASY DRAFT!!!!!
…and owners continue to do so!
Fantasy owners have very short term memories with closer merry go rounds!
Why does it not make sense to pay for, say, Mariano Rivera? I’m not saying take him in the 3rd round, but just one closer who is more or less assured to be good and put up decent numbers is a very important part of your team. It is kinda tough to put together a bullpen trolling just the waiver wire.
If I’m in an auction draft, I’m usually much more inclined to pay for saves since the whole run on closers thing isn’t typically a huge issue. In fact I would strongly encourage paying for saves in an auction, especially in roto, and especially if you know you missed out on the top two tiers of starting pitchers. Investing $40 in 3 elite relievers typically outperforms Roy Halladay or Tim Lincecum.
The key to buying closers is very simple. If you’re paying for Mo or Bell or Soria (despite the rough start), you’re probably doing a good thing. If you’re paying serious money for Axford or Broxton or Franklin, you’ve made a terrible mistake.
In other words, never pay for saves, always pay for high quality relievers.
I like to get one hoss, handcuff him, and another heir apparent or two.
This year I drafted Wilson, also got Romo. I also have Adams and Wood. I also drafted Contreras and swapped him for a SP (Jurrjens) when I ended up a little bit weak in starting pitching.
Why doesn’t everyone listen to you?
“Paying for saves” and drafting Ryan Franklin are 2 completely different things. In competitive 12-15 team leagues, you BETTER draft solid closers or you will have a HELL of a time. Closers go for over $200 on the market (and you better hope they KEEP the job then!)… If you know how to evaluate pitchers, then you just look for the best value and draft them. It’s MUCH easier to grab starters off the wire than closers.
Depends on the league. If you don’t pay for at least some saves in a shallow league like ours (12 team, NL only) you are going to be seriously hurting because not only are all the closers taken–all of the SETUP guys are taken as well.
I think LaRussa is going to go with Miguel Batista. I’m serious.
All reports from STL beat writer seem to point to Boggs
“The numbers for Boggs last season – a 3.61 ERA and 4.02 xFIP – were pretty good. ”
Since when a 4.02 is pretty good for a Closer ?
Lindstrom, Rauch, Franklin, Aardsma, Gregg, Perez, all had xFIPs of 3.90 – 4.13 last year.
OK, and how many of them are reliable closer ?
Let’s see
Linstrom: dumped twice (Florida, Houston), currently not closing anymore
Rauch: journeyman, temporary closer in Toronto
Franklin: well…….
Aardsma: good, currently in DL
Gregg: dumped many times, ticking bomb
Perez: best of the bunch
I think Boggs takes the job at first before relinquishing it to Sanchez later in the year. Boggs ain’t gonna make people forget Franklin to be honest.
Boggs currently sports a K/9 of 12 compared to Motte’s 3.86! Both have good ERA’s this year with some lucky BABIP’s factoring in. Both walk too many, but Motte is worse.
Your not making the choice for next year or later this year. Right now, Boggs is the most effective reliever in that pen by a good amount.
Am I the only one who was waiting for the wheels to fall off the Franklin closer wagon?
It seems to me that the beat writers might be calling for Boggs rather than actually looking at what’s going on. When we look at inLI to measure how they have been used in high leverage situations we see the following:
Miguel Batista: 1.43
Trever Miller: 1.10
Jason Motte: 0.91
Mitchell Boggs: 0.45
Fernando Salas: 0.13
Eduardo Sanchez: 0.01
This doesn’t account for the success that they’ve seen in a given situation (which could be a problem). But if the assumption is that LaRussa trusts veterans, it looks like he might already trust Batista more in high leverage situations – which could bode well for his future likelihood to close…
What I should have said is “don’t overpay for saves.”
around 1/3rd of the closers at the beginning of the season will not be closing by the end of the season.
In a redraft/H2H league (14 teams we’ll say for argument), I’ll NEVER take a closer before round 15.
H2H and roto is very different in this regard. You can’t get too far behind in roto but in head to head you should wait to see how things play out.
Yeah, h2h, you can punt saves pretty much and still get away with it because as long as you win 6-4 or win a 5-5 tie break you always win. Roto like you said, you gotta get yours and that round 15 idea would burn you in a competitive league.
The thing about that 1/3rd comment, is that that same argument is the one used by people that want to get the solid closers earlier because they want pitchers fully entrenched in their job and their peripherals are better than average. It goes both ways.
What you should have said was “don’t overpay for saves in a H2H league” as H2H and roto leagues are completely different animals when comparing impact of closers. In my 12 team roto waiting til the 15 would have netted you Franklin, Lyon, Gregg, Rodney, or a couple of other guys who weren’t even sure to have closing gigs. In roto in a competitive league if you try to go cheap on closers and try to pick up the “1/3” that get these new gigs you will screw yourself over because you will probably be beat to the punch on many, or all of them. Some of them will be owned already as was the case for Walden or Capps in my league. Anyone known to be a logical second choice after a shakey closer was drafted. I attempted to draft some cheap closers late that hung around in the draft and got two saves and horrendous ERA’s and Averages out of Franklin and Rodney. I scooped Boggs after Franklins last blown save and other scooped up Motte and Batista hoping to cash in on my misfortune. These days people are following twitter feeds or getting up to the minute news from a variety of sources requiring people to be really fortunate or really on top of things to scoop up the newest closers in-season.
I know TLR loves his veterans, but Eduardo Sanchez has an incredibly impressive track record and is deserving of the role.
Boggs put up decent numbers last year, but with the exception of GB% he is inferior to Sanchez in every regard. I don’t think Boggs has the pedigree to maintain the role for more than half a season…
If your looking at the writing on the wall, everything hints to Boggs. Around the time earlier this year when everyone thought Motte was ahead of Boggs, than La Russa sent Motte out in a relatively low pressure situation in around the 5th or 6th inning. I believe the same game Boggs came in and pitched a clean 8th and Franklin pitched the 9th. In addition, TLR made a comment about how came in and pitched a shut down inning in a way that kinda hinted at how much he valued his work. Also, don’t forget, Motte was given a chance last year and blew that completely, so I don’t see why he would look to go to him first this year. As far as Miguel Bautista, come on, its Miguel Bautista, do you really think that would be a serviceable 9th inning option regardless of his history.