Churn, Burn, or Hold

This is one of my favorite times of the fantasy season, as we don’t have enough data for the collective hive to quite make up its mind on which players are good enough to keep rostered and who should stay in their streaming lane. And in these margins, there is a lot of value to be had (and drafting errors corrected) in swooping the fantasy assets that two months from now won’t be on any wires.

Let’s take a look at some players who have been valuable fantasy assets over the first ~20% of the season (using the Razzball player rater as our markers) but are still lesser-owned, as fantasy managers have yet to fully decide who should keep getting churned around the wire, and who should be acquired and kept.

Entering Friday’s games, here are the 32 players who have a minimum $1 value on the Razzball player rater and are rostered less than 40% on Yahoo and ESPN:

Jack Suwinski, PIT, OF (Yahoo: 38%, ESPN: 13%)
114 PA: 7 HR – 11 R – 19 RBI – 5 SB – .297 AVG (Razzball PR: $9.4, #85 UT)

The shine is starting to come off both Jack Suwinski and just the Pirates, in general, as Pittsburgh has now lost nine of their last 10 games, while Suwinski has gone just 2-for-34 over that stretch, slashing .069/.206/.172, with a 47% K%. That’s a far cry from the prior stretch that saw him hit 5 HR in 12 games and slash .382/.511/.941, with a 24% K%.

Suwinski was the new waiver wire hotness but has seen his Roster% drop dramatically over his cold spell, with most players likely assuming that he and his eyepatch brethren were simply turning back into the scallywags they always were. So, is this a good time to keep him relegated to the streaming zone, or will everyone who doesn’t pounce on his dip be ultimately disappointed?

I’ve taken some heat in chats and elsewhere for my lack of Suwinski enthusiasm but there are some things to like in his approach, along with top-end EV increases that definately can’t be ignored. But first, the bad news – Jack can’t hit LHP for jack.

The Pirates are at least giving him more chances against them lately but that’s not for performance reasons. Not much has changed since last season and I wouldn’t just assume he stays out of a platoon all season long. But while annoying, strong-side platoon players can still be valuable if they’re crushing righties enough, and putting his most recent slump aside, Suwinski has certainly been doing that, at least going by the most power-friendly EV metrics.

This is what power looks like:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

But putting the power bumps aside, Suwinski’s more disciplined approach might also belie a future filled with more contact and fewer whiffs. While Suwinksi still doesn’t swing very often, whether overall (43% Swing% in 2022 and 38% in 2023), or in the zone (60% in both 2022 and 2023), what he has done is stop chasing. And no, not just a little bit; like, at all. Out of qualified batters (min 100 PA), Suwinski’s 14% oSw% is 1st, down from a 25% oSw%, leading to a 46% Z-O (zSw% – oSw%) that is up 11 points from 2022 and is in the top 20 of qualified batters in 2023. And he’s also tightened things up his choices significantly when in a two-strike count, dropping from a 35% oSw% in 2022, to a 24% oSw% so far in 2023.

When you’re hitting the ball as hard in the air as Suwinski has been doing, even a little more contact can go a long way. So if his more discerning approach can keep him closer to a 25% K% than a 35% K%, that extra production would go a long way into negating what you lose when an LHP is on the mound. While I still question what his R+RBI production will be on the tail-spinning Buc-o’s, it’s probably wise to scoop that level of power potential from off of the wire and see if it spikes further.

Lane Thomas, WSN, OF (Yahoo: 16%, ESPN: 5%)
147 PA: 4 HR – 21 R – 18 RBI – 3 SB – .258 AVG (Razzball PR: $13.4, #64 UT)

What has two thumbs and can only smash LHP? That’s right (you get it) – It’s Lane Thomas!

Thomas’s numbers vs RHP aren’t exactly basement level (say, like Suwinski vs LHP) but if I’m dealing with a one-sided hitter, I’d much rather have the one that struggles vs LHP, just for the numbers game, if nothing else. IE. I’m comfortable banking on getting more weeks facing just one or two (or zero) lefties than I am hoping for weeks of three or more lefties.

Not much sticks out with changes in his approach, batted balls, or EVs; Thomas remains about what he was. Still hot lava vs LHP, still mundane vs RHP, but mundaneness is braced by an everyday job (having played every game but two) and has been back at leadoff for the past five games after being banished to the bottom third of the lineup for the last two weeks.

But even with the full-time role (not exactly something to sneeze at in these our days of platoon fever), guys like Thomas don’t generally tickle me – there’s just not enough consistency:

That’s certainly usable in deeper leagues, especially in ones with five outfielders on the roster, and in ones with daily moves and/or deep benches. In those leagues, you can swap Thomas in and out to try and catch the lightning when it strikes on lefty-heavy weeks but you’ll also have to be willing to eat some brutal stretches of little production. But in more shallow leagues and ones with weekly moves and shorter benches, it’s hard for me to see Thomas carrying more value than as a backend bench bat/occasional streamer. Same as it ever was.

With that being said, this is a good week to try and ride that Lane lighting, as the Nationals are scheduled to face lefthanders in four of their seven games.

LaMonte Wade Jr., SFG, OF (Yahoo: 23%, ESPN: 11%)
132 PA: 7 HR – 15 R – 14 RBI – 1 SB – .242 AVG (Razzball PR: $6.9, # 99 UT)

The first good news about Wade Jr. is that he’s far more locked into an everyday role than he was for most of April, platooning at first base with Wilmer Flores, while also getting some time in the outfield. But he’s now started 14 of the last 15 games, including starts against 3-of-4 LHP.

And even in the tiniest of samples, that last bit is notable, as it is just about anytime a classic platooned lefty looks to be hitting his way out of it. Wade only had 89 PA vs LHP entering 2023, slashing a horrific .103/.184/.128, with a .154 wOBA, .312 OPS, and -7 wRC+, managing just two doubles, with zero home runs. Playing sporadically against them prior to this last stretch (and not for the first time until April 19), Wade has held his own over his first 23 PA, slashing .278/.381/.556 with two doubles and his first-ever home run.

Okay, that’s all well and good; after all, Wade doesn’t need to turn into a lefty-masher in order to great up his fantasy value, he only needs to be reasonable enough to stay in the lineup. The rest is gravy.

But besides the roto line that’s more than fine, not to mention a .416 wOBA and .425 xwOBA, there are some things under the hood that might point to a career-best .053 HR per PA sticking around. And we all know what happens when elevated home run rates meet an increased role, right? Actually, I don’t know because I didn’t really think this metaphor out before I started typing. Let’s just go with “shouldn’t be on the waiver wire”. Regardless, let’s quickly crack him open.

Firstly, Wade is headed in the right direction in our favorite power-friendly metrics, dramatically so in some places:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

But while there are a lot of career highs in ‘dem-dere exit velocities, both his average launch angle and LA% +38 (which is a measure of players’ upper-cut tendencies and correlates well with future HR rates, though being a BABIP/AVG killer) seem to point toward someone not trying to get the ball up the air more. However, I don’t think he’s 86’ing all of his upper launch angles, just the bad ones – as in the ones at-bat killing pop-ups are borne of. Wade’s 2.6% PU% in 2023 is the lowest of his career and down nearly seven points from the previous two seasons and while upper-cut swings with +38 degree LAs can lead to more home runs, they too are where pops make their bed.

Wade is also swinging even less than his prior below-average rates, running a 35% Swing% that is down 10 points from the previous two seasons, and a 58% zSw% that’s down 8-10 points. But like Suwinski earlier, Wade has simply stopped chasing, posting a 14.6% oSw% that is second only to Jack among qualified hitters and is down from 23% the last two seasons. And he’s also tightened up with two strikes, with a 25% oSw% that’s down 11 points from 2022.

Even though he’s not chasing, whether with two strikes, or otherwise, pitchers are still trying; Wade has a career-low 46% Zone%, down from 51% from 2021-2022, and in the 8th percentile for the league. But as long as he’s not chasing, pitchers will eventually start coming back in more, unless they want to play the dangerous game of throwing a bunch of balls to the leadoff hitter. And when pitchers come in the zone, Wade has made them pay, posting a .493 wOBAcon and .485 xwOBAcon in 2023 that’s up from a .405 wOBAcon and .421 xwOBAcon from 2021-22.

If the new changes and playing time stick, Wade is looking at a near full-time role, batting leadoff when facing an RHP for a good (but not great) offense, with 20+ HR possibilities while getting on base enough to rack a pile of runs. The streaming days are over – time to get Wade off the wire for good.

Lightning Round

Jorge Soler is back to a whole mess of red sliders on his Statcast page after coming back to the mortals a bit in 2022. But his low-contact ways are as whiffy as ever, with a 28% K%, 14% SwStr%, and 27.2% Chase% that’s the highest since his rookie year. It’s no wonder that pitchers have given him a 47% Zone% that’s in the bottom 10%.

Soler is still just a streamer but especially when he’s got a slate of lefties on the horizon, as he’s slashing .333/.455/.963 against them in this first small sample, compared to a .210/.265/.390 line vs RHP. But also don’t get too cute if running a stream on him, as four of his 9 HR have come off of righties.

Maybe I’m being too much of an xSnob but I find it hard to believe that Geraldo Perdomo will continue to outrun his expected stats by such a wide margin:

I’m not sure the Diamondbacks believe in him either, as he’s only started six of their last 14 games. Be smart like the snakes and leave him on the wire where he belongs.

Considering his elite EVs across the board (22.4% Brl%, 50% Air% 100+ mph, 10.5% Brl/PA), the big-time home run rate of Luke Raley is certainly deserved, though, asking him to continue running a .082 HR per PA is probably asking a bit much given a 65% Contact%. And while he does have some newfound aggression in the zone (78% zSw% is the 12th-highest among qualified hitters), his two-strike approach continues to be poor, running an 84% zSw% and 46% oSw% that are both in the bottom 10%.

Even though his playing time has ticked up recently, starting four out of Tampa Bay’s last five prior to Saturday, I’m not trusting the Rays to trust that sort of profile too much and he’s certainly not going to play vs LHP (career: .143/.205/.257) knowing how Tampa rolls. You could try streaming him to grab some short-term power but he’s still just wire fodder unless he carves out a more consistent role.

I hate doing this to a fellow Nick – but it’s time for some cold water, Nick Senzel comeback tour. Senzel has a .604 wOBA and 281 wRC+ vs LHP in 2023, slashing .522/.560/.870 over 25 PA. Against RHP, things are, umm…different. Over 71 PA, he’s slashing .169/.239/.246, with a .225 wOBA and 29 wRC+. Like I said; different. Stream him when the Reds are facing a glut of lefties and ignore him the rest of the time. Cincinnati is only lined up to face one LHP in Week 8 but it’s Austin Gomber in Colorado, so-ooo.

What’s German for “Max Kepler can’t hit lefties”? Because he can’t, even if he does sometimes start against them now. But he has seen some big increases in top-end EVs, with a 14.1% Brl% that’s nearly double last season and a 96 mph average Air% EV that is up over three ticks. Kepler’s 31% FB% is also up six points, with a 47% Pull% that’s the highest since 2019.

Kepler’s power rates have been declining since a high watermark in 2019 (36 HR, .060 HR/PA) but a .053 HR/PA is his best rate since then and his EVs point toward it not being an illusion. There isn’t any speed and he’ll struggle in lefty-heavy weeks but Kepler’s balanced profile gives him enough value to use at outfield in deeper leagues, and possibly at UT in more shallow ones.

Counterpoint:

Max Kepler kann keine Linkshänder schlagen!