Checking In On Perpetua’s Wacky Predictions.

Before I get into just how completely wrong my first prediction is/was, I want to briefly explain my outlook for the Bold Predictions in the first place.  I think these should be fun and spark conversation. As a result, they should probably be controversial, at least in part. There should be a reason for each pick, and the reason shouldn’t necessarily be built on a strong hypothesis. If you have a solid reason to believe something then you aren’t talking about a bold prediction, it is just a normal prediction. Bold predictions should be built on a questionable foundation, that’s the fun part.

I view this as a testing ground for ideas. Most of these are arguments I would have otherwise quietly kept to myself. Any by quietly I mean tweeted out once and then retweeted at the end of the season if they came true. Just kidding.

Having said all that, let’s get to my first and worst prediction. Oh jeez, here we go.

1: Steven Matz will be a top 10 starting pitcher

Need I say more?  He missed almost half the season with an undiagnosed, unexplained injury. Don’t take this the wrong way, I have no doubt he felt injured. When an athlete tells me they are hurt, I believe them. I’m not saying he was faking his injury, which is an accusation that has been thrown at him far too many times this season. Even by his own coaches and front office, which I think is shameful.

Even still, this was an undiagnosed injury. When doctors looked at his arm they shrugged, made a few incomprehensible grunting sounds and walked out of the room. This was all a very weird story from the get-go, but it needs to be said for context. And by context I mean, wow was I wrong.

This prediction comes with an implied ‘when healthy.’ Obviously, I was banking on him finally being healthy for once, which is a rough assumption to make.  Sure, I’d love to see him throw 200 innings, I’m sure everyone would love to see that. But, man, it is depressingly unlikely at this point.

In June, he ranked 18th in MLB in ERA (85th in IP). So, he has that. His strikeout rate is low, and I feel it would climb ever higher if he could ever get into a rhythm and pitch several starts in a row.  For one reason or another, that never seems to happen. That alone says it all about Matz, doesn’t it?

2: Jay Bruce will bat .270

He is currently batting .2656, 85 hits in 320 at bats. That means he is 1.4 hits behind pace. In other words, if he goes 3 for 5 on Friday he will be batting .271. He’s right there.

But, really, I predicted more than just batting average, this is about a developing opposite field approach. I posited that if Bruce rips off a few more line drives and flyballs towards left center, those hits will buoy his batting average back to his 2010 and 2013 levels without sacrificing any of his power output. In other words, it would be a strict upgrade on batting average.  Which, on the surface appears to be happening, at least in part.  His batting average is up, and his power numbers to date are at a career high. Granted, some of this power is the result of the, ahem, changing run environment. 

Anecdotally, having watched just about every one of his at bats this season, I know he is using left field more often.  This doesn’t necessarily mean he is hitting the ball to left field more often, but you can tell from his approach that he has intentionally hit the ball the other way at times.  Especially at the start of the season, where it felt like he was going to left field for a single every other day. Lately, though, these hits to left field appear to have dried up. In addition, I know he has lost several hits due to factors beyond his control. For example, he hit a ball to left field which would have been a home run on just about any other day, except he hit it on a very cold evening with the wind blowing in. Oh well, weather happens sometimes.

In totality, though, his opposite field numbers are a bit less than I had expected.

I felt he could be closer to 35% hits and 20% extra base hits, and he’s a bit shy of that mark. He would need three more extra base hits to reach that sort of production, and while I know he lost one near guaranteed home run due to bad weather, I’m not sure how much else you could attribute to poor luck.  He just hasn’t quite met my expectations in opposite field power this season. But, hey, his rest of season pace isn’t too far off, and maybe the wind will blow out one day to give back the homer it took earlier in the year.

3: Lucas Duda will outperform his ADP by 250.

Well, the auction calculator hasn’t been updated for 2017 yet, so I’ll just stick to his basic stats and how he compares to the rest of the league’s first basemen. Lucas Duda missed a bit of time this season when he hyperextended his elbow during a close, and dangerous, play on first base. In short, he tried to catch the ball, and the runner ran into his arm. Ouch.

Moving past that injury, Duda has put up some of the best power numbers of his career this season, with a ridiculous .286 ISO (obviously a career high, by a gigantic margin) and .366 wOBA (in 2011 he had a .368 wOBA).  His batting average is low, .238, and his BABIP is sitting around .269 as well, which isn’t a career low (last year it was .250), but it is still quite bad. His expected batting average is .240, and expected BABIP .285.  Both of these expected results, which derived from exit velocity and launch angle, are effectively dead on to his career averages (.246 and .286).

Even after losing 100+ plate appearances with his arm injury, Duda ranks 22nd among first basemen (68th overall) in terms of home runs, with 14. Generally speaking, you can expect 53% of his home runs to come in the second half (assuming health), and judging by his June home run totals, you could reasonably assume between 13 and 17 home runs from here on out, about 30 total for the season.

He ranks 197th overall in terms of Runs scored (24), and 151st for RBI (30). These are ranked 30th and 29th overall for first basemen. He is also ranked 168th for batting average (.238), which is 25th among first basemen.

I don’t have the auction calculator handy, but his rankings among the key stats likely place him somewhere in the 170 or 180 range, if I were to guess. A far cry from the 350 ranking he was given preseason. A solid second half could push these figures ever northward, especially if he can accumulate a few more RBIs.

4: DJ LeMahieu will hit 20 homers

This prediction is probably a dud. He has four homers to date, and he has missed a bunch of time with an injured groin. I still firmly believe he has power potential in his bat, and while I hoped it would come out this season, it doesn’t appear to be in the cards. Maybe next year.

5: Edwin Encarnacion will underperform his ADP by 30 spots

This prediction hinges on two pieces of information.  First, prior to the season he seemed to be hitting ever more weak flyballs. If this continued, it would be very bad. Second, Encarnacion had steadily increased exit velocity on flyballs, and if that reversed while launch angle continued to climb it would be very, very bad.

His weak flyball rate has stabilized, and while high it isn’t game breaking.  That’s just the sort of batter he is, you take the good with the bad. His exit velocity regression was to be expected, and he’s lost 2 miles per hour on average, but more importantly 5 mph off his average flyball. The flyball velocity is really what I was worrying about, and while he has fallen back towards league average, it isn’t a huge deal as long as he keeps the launch angle under control.

Encarnacion had a slow start to the season, which seems to be pretty normal for him, but in recent weeks he’s gotten red hot and just about made up for early troubles. Maybe he will make up all of the lost ground, maybe he will fall back a few slots. We’ll see. 

6: Carlos Rodon will have a significant drop in HR/FB (to 11%)

Well, his current home run rate is 7.1%. Yay.  He’s doing even better than I expected, and given the current home run climate I feel home run suppression should be celebrated. Granted, it could go haywire at any moment, one bad game could flip this on it’s head. But let’s be happy for what it is.

This prediction hinged on the number and average exit velocity of batted balls hit on launch angles ideal for home runs (21-36 degrees). In the table below you can see his ideally hit balls by season.

In general, pitchers who decreased their average exit velocity on these batted balls reduced their home run rate on these balls. Since these angles represent the vast majority of home runs, I figured you could likely use this to predict future home run rate. Maybe I am wrong, I’m not sold on this argument in either direction.

Rodon’s velocity went down last year, but his home run rate went up. I figured with a velocity that low, his home run rate would go down again.  And it has.  Except his velocity is higher than ever. Granted, that is only on 10 batted balls, so one hard hit ball could tip the scales.  So let’s look at those individual batted balls.

Looks like the velocity is just up. So, my prediction seems to be right, but my hypothesis is wrong.

7: Gary Sanchez will hit fewer than 30 home runs, and he will not have the most homers as a catcher.

Well, I think this is probably going to be at least half wrong. While Salvador Perez is giving him a run for his money in the home run total department, it seems unlikely that Sanchez will hit fewer than 30 homers this year. He is on pace for 27.7 homers right now, and that is after missing quite a bit of time with an elbow injury. He will probably hit more than 30, and could easily overtake Perez for first overall among catchers. This prediction is probably a dud.

8: Wil Myers and Trea Turner will finish the season with roughly the same slash line +/- 2%:

This prediction is made more to highlight my bewilderment of the Trea Turner trade than it was a serious guess for the 2017 season. I wanted this one to be wrong, and I wanted Trea Turner to come out on top. So, let’s look at their slash lines to date:

Turner is up by about 10% in average, they are roughly within 2% for OBP, and Myers is up by about 11% in slugging.

Of course, Turner has a broken wrist, so he will miss a significant period of time. I am not sure exactly when he will come back, or if he will be capable of hitting for power with a compromised wrist. That is a very unfortunate injury.

This prediction has gone pear shaped, I wanted Turner to match Myers, but instead they split across the lead interesting lines. The first basemen has more power and the shortstop has more average and stolen bases. Boo! 

9: SunTrust Park will increase the Braves home run total by 17%.

Well, through the first half last year the Braves hit 55 homers, and this year they have 88. Last year they hit 52 homers in Turner Field. This year they have 38 in SunTrust. I predicted they would hit at least 61 in SunTrust this year, and that seems imminently doable. They could finish this by mid August at this rate. This prediction is absolutely correct, although not especially bold.  I’m a bit disappointed with the lack of boldness. 

10: Kenta Maeda will underperform his ADP by 50.

Again, the auction calculator isn’t ready yet for the 2017 season, so measuring ADP isn’t possible at the moment. However, I wasn’t high on Maeda coming into the season, and he has underperformed even my low expectations. I felt he would have an ERA in the 3.9 range, and he’s actually in the 4.3 range. His FIP is roughly 3.9, though, so I have that.

His strikeouts are down, home runs are up, and he just isn’t getting it done to this point. I felt batters would adjust to his curveball, which has happened to some degree, it appears to be a weaker pitch this season. Overall, his swinging strike rate is up, but swing rate is down, while slugging and batting average are both up.

This generally fits the pattern I thought we would see out of him: Batters would stop being fooled by pitches, lay off balls out of the zone, and square up ones in the zone. While I am not sure how far he may have fallen in terms of ADP, the reasoning for this downturn appears to lineup with game results up until this point in the season.

BONUS: There will be a record number of home runs in Citi Field This April

I have a side project where I track home runs in Citi Field, and last season there were record homers in every month except April.  I felt they could break that April record this season. Well, they didn’t. So no bonus points for me.