Checking in on Blake Snell

There was a time, many, many years ago, when I would never roster a rookie starting pitcher. This was when I first began playing fantasy baseball in the late 1990s. Whether it’s because rookie starters now seem to enjoy more immediate success than in the past or we just do a better job evaluating pitchers in general that enables us to separate the wheat from the chaff, I no longer avoid rookie starters, and have not for a while. I already discussed selling Michael Fulmer two weeks ago, so that leaves us with just only a couple of rookie American League starters we truly care about, one of which is Blake Snell.

Snell was highly touted heading into the season and was ranked as the Rays’ best prospect by Dan Farnsworth. The key takeaway from Farnsworth’s blurb was:

Snell already has the ability to pitch in a big-league rotation because of his stuff, but it’s his command gains that will determine how high his abilities will go.

That’s precisely the type of pitcher I like to gamble on for a breakout, though typically the command issues creep up during the rookie season, rendering the pitcher undervalued the following year en route to his breakout. Sure enough, Snell has dealt with those exact command issues we were warned about. Of course, a quick scan of his minor league history suggested he would have such problems. He has posted walk rates above 10% at nearly every stop he has pitched at and he currently sits at a 12.1% walk rate with the Rays.

Throwing strikes has been a real issue. His 59.6% strike percentage would rank as the fifth lowest mark if he qualified for the leaderboard. That’s not good. It might be acceptable if he was inducing tons of swings and misses, and ultimately striking out a high rate of hitters like he has in the minors, but that hasn’t happened. His SwStk% is actually well below the league average and he has only managed to maintain a strikeout rate a bit above the league average by generating a looking strike rate that would rank fifth best. That’s not exactly the Snell we thought was arriving to the Majors!

Farnsworth graded Snell’s slider as his best secondary pitch, but curiously, he has thrown it least. Even more strange is that he has utilized it least, yet it’s been his only pitch that has generated a SwStk% above 9%! It’s all the way up at 24.7%, which begs the question of why he isn’t throwing it more frequently. His changeup has been awful, neither inducing swings and misses nor ground balls, though has somehow gotten good results from it (.097 wOBA). And his curve ball has been interesting, as it has not been a pitch for whiffs at all, but it’s getting gobs of grounders, no line drives, and a heaping of pop-ups. It has an elite batted ball distribution, so the pitch has been rather effective despite the lack of whiffs.

Surprisingly, the fastball has been terrible, as it sports just a 5% SwStk% and batters have teed off on the pitch to the tune of a .382 wOBA. At this point, I’m tempted to suggest he scrap the curve ball, but darn that batted ball distribution is crazy! And it’s hard to stop throwing a pitch that has led to a microscopic .071 wOBA. The changeup has been worse, but the pitch was graded rather highly and seemingly has the potential to be better.

So far, Snell has been a disappointment, as long as you’re looking beyond the surface (and you are, right?!). His tiny 2.9% HR/FB rate will soon jump toward the league average, driving his shiny ERA closer to his uninspiring 4.67 SIERA. But the seeds are there. The slider has been deadly, the curve is an option if he needs a grounder, the changeup was expected to be a strong pitch, and he possesses good velocity for a lefty. Throwing more strikes will be key, but it’s something young pitchers often struggle with and frequently improve upon.