Chad Young’s 2025 Bold Predictions Review

I hate reviewing these bold predictions because, by their very nature, bold predictions are often wrong and so it is kind of depressing to go back and see just how wrong I was. I said as much when I wrote my bold predictions in March, and noted that my hope was they would be useful, even if wrong:

My goal here is for my predictions to be legimately bold – which means my end of season recap will be a bit depressing – but directionally useful – which means you can hopefully use these bold predictions to buy (or sell) on players and strengthen your teams.

With that reminder, let’s dive in!

1. Cam Smith is a top 10 3B by P/G (among those with 200+ PA).

The hype on Smith was through the roof and I was fully on board. My caveat with Smith was not that he might struggle, but that playing time might be low if the Astros weren’t hyper-aggressive by starting him in MLB. Well, he did make the roster, and managed nearly 500 PA, but his P/G was just 3.48. That was good for 41st (yes, 41st) at the position with 200+ PA. This actually looked like a plausibly positive outcome through about half the season and then Smith fell apart int he second half. His BABIP and HR/FB rate plummeted, as his hard hit rate fell, he stopped hitting line drives, and got fly-ball happy. We generally like fly balls, but they are low-BABIP balls in play, so if you aren’t getting good contact on those fly balls, they turn into outs. I am actually still pretty high on Smith, as I think the length of the season was a factor. Plus he now gets a full off-season to figure out what changed and adjust.

Was it right? No. Was it directionally helpful? Still no.

2. Kyle Manzardo tops 5 P/G with 400+ PA.

I got to yell “MANZARDONG!” 27 times this year, but it wasn’t enough to make this one come true. On top of that, there was something of a resurgence at 1B this season, with 17 1B eligibles topping 5 P/G and eight of those over 6 P/G, making Manzardo’s 4.49 look worse. That said, he was still 17th among 1B-only players and since anyone with 1B and another eligibility is likely playing at the other spot, 4.49 isn’t so bad. He also had a bit of an up and down year and – as with Smith – I am buying in on improvement pushing him forward for 2026.

Was it right? No. Was it directionally helpful? Kinda? A little? He was a useful cheap 1B option and had some stretches where he was legit excellent. But…ok, fine, no.

3. Mookie Betts falls doesn’t appear in the top 30 players with 400+ PA by P/G. 

Ok, this one I crushed. I said before the season that the top 30 at 400+ PA would be around 5.75 P/G and that was about right. I said Betts would either fail to reach 400 PA or be below 5.75 P/G. Well, he got to 663 PA but 4.87 P/G is a far cry from the top 30. Betts was stronger to end the year and has been excellent in the playoffs. While I still think age-related decline is a thing we should expect, if the market over-corrects and thinks 2025 is his new baseline, I will be buying low (and bold predicting him going the other direction this year). If the market expects a full rebound to past glories, I’ll be out again.

Was it right? Yes. Was it directionally helpful? Also yes.

4. Two of the top 5 catchers by P/G (200+ PA) will come from outside last year’s top 15.

Close! The top 5 C by P/G were: Cal Raleigh, Shea Langeliers, Will Smith, Ivan Herrera, and Carter Jensen, but Jensen is will short on PA, so Hunter Goodman moves up. He was outside the previous years top 15. The next three names were Ben Rice, Willson Contreras and Tyler Soderstrom. Had I said three of the top eight instead of two of top five, this would have come true, as Rice and Soderstrom joined Goodman. Kyle Teel was 10th, making four of the top 10. Alas.

Was it right? No. Was it directionally helpful? Yes. Looking for catchers outside the 2024 top 15 proved a viable way to get a catcher you felt really good about in 2025.

5. Grant Holmes is a top 35 SP (100+ IP) by P/IP.

Not even close. And he was under 4 P/IP so even if you bought low, you didn’t come away with much (if any) use here. Had he been top 50 or something, I would have been wrong, but at least you would have gotten a useful arm! And no, I am not doubling down for 2026.

Was it right? No. Was it directionally helpful? No.

6. Colby Thomas is top 3 on the A’s offense in total points.

I thought he would be up much earlier. And I thought he would preform much better. Instead, he struggled to get going, finally showed some life in August, and then cratered again to end the year. I still have an inexpensive Thomas or two on rosters, but right now, he’s probably a cut for me. I still like the talent, so I will take another look before making a final call, but boy did he disappoint.

Was it right? No. Was it directionally helpful? Also no.

7. Bo Bichette is a top 5 SS by P/G (400+ PA).

I called this bold based on Bichette being the 10th highest paid SS in first year leagues at the time of writing. Bichette had come off a horrific 2024 season, pulling his value down. But I saw a solid buy-low, and buy low I did. And it paid off! But not quite enough to make this fully correct. Bichette’s 6.20 P/G was 7th at the position, but to say he was within striking distance of 5th is an understatement. Francisco Lindor and Jeremy Pena tied for 4th, with Trea Turner 6th. Those three were at 6.23, 6.23 and 6.22 P/G each. If this pitch on August 6, were correctly called a ball, Bichette would have walked, would have had four more points on the year, and would have also been at 6.23 P/G. Alas.

Was it right? Ugh, fine, no. Was it directionally helpful? Yes, for sure.

8. Alex Bregman is over 6 P/G for the first time since 2019.

Another one that wasn’t far off. Not quite “if only this one pitch were called correctly” close, but not too far. Bregman was well on his way to making this bold prediction look, if anything, not bold enough, when he got hurt. Then he missed time and came back as an excellent player but not the player he was beforehand. In the end, he landed at 5.77 P/G, less than 30 points shy of 6 P/G. But he did bounce back in a big way.

Was it right? No. Was it directionally helpful? Yes.

9. Max Kepler hits 30 HR for the second time in his career.

I think it is time for me to give up on Max Kepler. Sad.

Was it right? No. Was it directionally helpful? No.

10. Tylor Megill is the top scoring Mets pitcher by total points.

The big gamble here was really that Megill would stay healthy while putting up points. He has been over 100 IP just once in his career, and that year he put up 2.89 P/IP. In 2024, he got up to 4.75 P/IP. Could he maintain that production over a longer stretch? Turns out the answer was no. Megill was 7th on the Mets in total points, as he managed only 68.1 IP and therefore fell behind a few RP in total points, in addition to three rotation-mates – David Peterson, Clay Holmes, and Kodai Senga. However, Megill was more than half a point per IP better than any of those three. The only Mets SP who outperformed him on a per-inning basis were Nolan McLean and Brandon Sproat, who combined for just 0.1 more IP than Megill had.

Was it right? No. Was it directionally helpful? Kind of? It was in that if you bought in on Megill, he gave you good production and then once he got hurt, you could move on. But you couldn’t really bank on him for the type of volume I was boldly predicting.