Chad Young’s 2025 Bold Predictions

With the season nearly upon us (I refuse to count the Japan Series), it’s time for Bold Predictions. My goal here is for my predictions to be legimately bold – which means my end of season recap will be a bit depressing – but directionally useful – which means you can hopefully use these bold predictions to buy (or sell) on players and strengthen your teams.

As always, my bold predictions will be Ottoneu-focused.

1. Cam Smith is a top 10 3B by P/G (among those with 200+ PA). Among 3B-eligible players, ten players were over 5.25 P/G last year, so that gives you a bit of a sense of what would be required of Smith to hit that mark. Smith has barely tasted the minors, but his Spring Training performance is turning heads and with good reason. He is drawing walks, hitting for power, limiting strikeouts. All the things his track record suggested he might do eventually, he is doing now. I am not sure if the Astros are going to be so aggressive that he is up Opening Day, or even in April, but he’ll be up this year and he’ll do real damage.

2. Kyle Manzardo tops 5 P/G with 400+ PA. He projects to about 4.75 P/G and only 10 current 1B-eligible players crossed 5 P/G last year in 200 or more PA. So while 5 P/G may not feel like a super high total, it would be enough to make him a viable starting 1B and be a big jump vs. his projected value.

3. Mookie Betts falls doesn’t appear in the top 30 players with 400+ PA by P/G. I admit that I phrased this to give me two outs. At the end of the year, if you use the Ottoneu FanGraphs leader boards, set to a minimum of 400 PA and sorted by P/G, you won’t see Betts on that page. That could happen if Betts is under roughly 5.75 P/G or if he fails to reach 400 PA. I am worried about both. Even with the injury issues last year, and the decrease in power, Betts comfortably hit both of those thresholds. But now he is a year older (32) and is starting the season already behind the rest of the league, thanks to an illness that apparently cost him 15 pounds. That’s not a small amount, especially on a guy his size, and it is hard to put muscle on during the season, when guys are playing games almost every day. If he misses more time, if his power goes down further, if he simply isn’t as strong and energetic as we’d expect, he could easily take a step back on the field or spend more time off it.

4. Two of the top 5 catchers by P/G (200+ PA) will come from outside last year’s top 15. I have been high on the current crop of young catchers and they haven’t quite lived up to my expectations, but I think we see at least two big producers emerge this year. The top 15 from last year were Willson Contreras, William Contreras, Salvador Perez, Will Smith, Yainer Diaz, Cal Raleigh, J.T. Realmuto, Iván Herrera, Tyler Stephenson, Joey Bart, Adley Rutschman, Jacob Stallings, Connor Wong, Shea Langeliers, and Ryan Jeffers. Here are some of my top candidates to break into that top five: Gabriel Moreno, Logan O’Hoppe, Tyler Soderstrom, Austin Wells, Francisco Alvarez, and Alejandro Kirk.

5. Grant Holmes is a top 35 SP (100+ IP) by P/IP. I wrote about Holmes in my most rostered players article and everything I said there is why I am putting him here. Or maybe the fact that I am high enough on him to put him here explains why I rostered him enough to show up over there. He is making me a littler nervous this spring (don’t trust that shiny ERA) but I am still in.

6. Colby Thomas is top 3 on the A’s offense in total points. At least one of you just read that sentence and said “top three on THAT team and you call these predictions bold??” But that team actually has some fun bats. Brent Rooker, Lawrence Butler, and Shea Langeliers were all excellent last year. J.J. Bleday was solid, as well. Tyler Soderstrom looks like he might break out. Jacob Wilson윌슨 is an intriguing prospect. And those guys all have jobs. For this to work out, Thomas has to be up early enough to build up volume and produce in a big way. He also needs to keep the strikeouts in check and show some improvement in his hit tool – something he may be doing in a small sample this spring! – to let his power play up.

7. Bo Bichette is a top 5 SS by P/G (400+ PA). Bichette is going as the 10th highest paid SS in first year leagues, which is totally understandable after his last couple of seasons. But there is a lot going in Bichette’s favor. He was dealing with injuries and now appears to be fully healthy for the first time in a while. He is still relatively young (he just turned 27 this month). This is a contract year, and we know that players tend to play up in those. He’s already demonstrated he can be a top-tier fantasy producer. And, by the way, he is laying waste to the Grapefruit League and sits just one HR shy of having as many HR this March as he had all of last year. The (re)breakout is going to be fun.

8. Alex Bregman is over 6 P/G for the first time since 2019. It’s early going, but Bregman looks awfully good in a Red Sox uniform. He is not only putting up great stats, he is elevating the ball more (55.6% FB rate) than at any time in his career and that is the kind of thing that can result from a change in approach even in small samples. His approach is a great fit for Fenway and if he starts lifting the ball more, that will only lead to more HR over the monster or 2B banging off of it.

9. Max Kepler hits 30 HR for the second time in his career. Citizen’s Bank Ballpark has the second best HR park factor for LH hitters at 127. Target Field isn’t a bad power park for lefties (10th at 104) but going from “not bad” to “super great” is still a big jump. I also think a change of scenery might just be a benefit for him. Going from a team where all the best bats around him are in and out of the lineup on a seemingly day-to-day basis to a top-notch offense where he can just blend in and do his thing feels like it could be a win. Plus, while there is nothing he can do to get some kind of mega, 10-year, $250MM type contract, he is a free agent after the season and a good contract year could put him in position to significantly increase his career earnings.

10. Tylor Megill is the top scoring Mets pitcher by total points. I almost said “starting pitcher” because I could legitimately see Edwin Diaz being the top scoring pitcher on the Mets, but I’ll stick with the bolder take. He has a lot of competition here, but none of it is very reliable. Kodai Senga has dealt with injuries. Clay Holmes is going to be asked to throw a TON more innings. Frankie Montas and Sean Manaea are already hurt. Megill, meanwhile, took a big step forward last year, especially with his K-rate. He has maintained those gains this spring and is giving up far fewer walks. Even if the walks go back to 2024 levels, he should have an excellent season. If he reduces them, he could be great.