Archive for Waiver Wire

RotoGraphs’ Waiver Wire League Update, Starring Jason Kipnis, Javy Guerra and Brandon McCarthy

Prior to the All-Star break, four RotoGraphs writers — Eno Sarris, Jeff Zimmerman, Howard Bender and me — engaged in the just-for-fun activity of drafting Pick Six-style teams, with the pool of players limited to those available in 10% or less in ESPN leagues (at the time of the draft). Given those parameters, the exercise proved to be challenging, but if you paid attention to our picks, you may have managed to snag a useful fantasy player or three off the waiver wire — no matter what kind of league you play in. Let’s update the scoring and hit on each owner’s best and worst selections. In other words, it’s time to see who’s in line for some bragging rights.

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No, Really, Add Yuniesky Betancourt

Let me preface this by saying that Yuniesky Betancourt is not a good player. He’s been worth 2.8 WAR in 3475 plate appearances. That’s horrendous. In purely fantasy terms he’s never been particularly good either. He doesn’t hit for power, or run, or hit for a high average, or get on base. But, because he can play shortstop, not very well mind you, teams have given him over 500 plate appearances a season five years running.

He began this season just like any other, i.e. badly. In May he hit .176/.200/.289. Things started to come around in June as his OPS for the month ended at .690. Then it was summer time and Yuni was livin’ easy. He had a great July, for him, hitting .299 with a .752 OPS and 13 runs and 13 RBI. He’s carried that over into July as well as his .953 OPS would attest. To make it simple, over the last 30 days he’s hit .380 with 3 HR, 20 RBI and even 2 SB. Only four other shortstops have been better than Yuni over that time: Troy Tulowitzki, Jimmy Rollins, Asdrubal Cabrera and J.J. Hardy. Those four are owned in over 70 percent of leagues while our man Yuni sits at just 28 percent. He’s hit so well that even noted fantasy writer Jason Collette traded Jason Motte for him a few weeks ago.

We all know that the shortstop position is as shallow as a kiddie pool. Any unexpected production is welcomed with open arms. He’s not likely to keep this up until the rest of the season, but if you have a void at shortstop, or own a slumping player like Elvis Andrus or Alexei Ramirez, it’s worth overlooking the name and trying to cash in on the hot streak while you can. Another player in a similar situation to Yuni’s is Cliff Pennington. He’s owned in just seven percent of leagues but has hit .342/2HR/13RBI/2SB over the past month. Unlike Betancourt he’s been a good hitter relative to his position in his short career, so it may be more than a fluke.

Betancourt may not get many more hot streaks like this. Do him a favor and pick him up. He’s been a punching bag for so long that I’m sure he’d appreciate seeing his ownership percentage tick up over the 30% barrier.


Ankiel, Encarnacion, and Kubel: Waiver Wire

Rick Ankiel (Yahoo: 6 percent owned, ESPN: 15 percent owned)

After an extremely pedestrian first half, Ankiel seems to have found his groove at the top of the Nationals’ batting order. He has hit .290/.342/.536 since the All-Star break, but has really turned it on after the trade deadline, hitting .308/.357/.692 with 4 HR since August 1. Of the 18 games left this month, the Nationals play 10 at home — where Ankiel has hit six of his seven home runs — plus another six in hitter-friendly Cincinnati and Philadelphia, giving him a good chance to continue his torrid month.

If you can spare the extra bench spot, Ankiel has large enough platoon split to be worth acting on. His OPS drops nearly .200 points against lefties, which makes him look far less interesting than he is against righties. If you can’t platoon him, he’s still worth a grab, especially in NL-Only, but temper your expectations when he faces Cole Hamels.

Edwin Encarnacion (Yahoo: 29 percent owned, ESPN: 78 percent owned)

Right from the outset, if you play in a league that counts defense, Encarnacion might not be your best pick-up. E-5 isn’t his nickname for no reason. Encarnacion owns one of the AL’s five highest OPS marks in the second half thanks to a line of .361/.475/.627 line, but he managed to find even a higher gear over the last 10 days, hitting .423/.559/.654 in August. The one knock on his month so far is that he has just one RBI and that came on his only home run so far. However, it’s almost unthinkable that he wouldn’t start driving in his teammates if he stays this hot for a while longer.

Encarnacion’s BABIP this month is .435, so he’s definitely finding the holes in the defense, but his yearly mark is an entirely unremarkable .307. So, while I think some regression is likely, it isn’t the sword of Damocles hanging over his head. Toronto plays a fairly favorable schedule the rest of the month, but they get the Red Sox and Yankees for 11 games in September, so, unless the divisional and wild card races are already sewn up early, Encarnacion could face a tough slate of pitching. Having an alternative in mind if he starts to struggle is wise.

Jason Kubel (Yahoo: 51 percent owned, ESPN: 93 percent owned)

On production alone, I like Kubel a lot. In the 18 games since he returned from the DL, Kubel has hit .319/.382/.565 with 4 HR and 13 RBI, which is more than respectable from a player with his paltry ownership. He’s been one of the Twins’ most consistent hitters over the last nine games, hitting .387/.406/.774 since August began — in fact, his 774 SLG would be the team’s fifth highest OPS this month.

While I think his consistent contributions keep him in the lineup, with Justin Morneau rejoining the team on Friday, the Twins are simply overfilled at three of the four corner positions and Kubel’s not exactly an option at third base. Jim Thome is rightly going to get plenty of playing time in his quest for his 600th home run, keeping Kubel from being the full-time DH, and Delmon Young, Michael Cuddyer, Ben Revere, and Kubel are all competing for time in the outfield corners — especially since Alexi Casilla’s return means that they won’t simply stash Cuddyer at 2B to alleviate some of the pressure.

For the team, it’s a nice problem to have, but it’s really just a mess for owners. I think his production is going to be good enough going forward to be worth the possibility that he may not play every day, but do keep a close eye on the lineup, especially until Thome hits his 600th.


James Darnell and Nate Eovaldi: Mining the Minors

At this point in the season, with just about seven weeks remaining, the chance that a newcomer to your roster will make a significant fantasy impact isn’t great, whether we’re talking about a recently-recalled minor leaguer getting another another shot in the bigs or one of the few elite prospects who has yet to get the call. But that doesn’t mean these players are entirely incapable of making useful fantasy contributions either.

Now that we’re down to the final push — when the fantasy playoffs are in sight, money is on the line and bragging rights are up for grabs — it’s the savvy owner who follows every turn of the the never-ceasing transaction wheel. Because continuing to play that slumping stud regularly (any day now, Carlos Beltran) or rostering that one-time starter who just lost his job (step aside, Travis Snider) or waiting for that injured star to return (hurry back, Rickie Weeks) or sitting on that pitcher who was traded to a tougher environment (hey, Jason Marquis is actually owned in some leagues) isn’t exactly doing much to help your cause now, is it? But maybe — just maybe — one of these guys can.

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Kotchman, Carp, and Blanks: Waiver Wire

We’re down to about the last seven weeks of regular season baseball and entering into a period where managers start to tweak their teams in reaction to categorical standings (thinking rotisserie style, that is). Due to any combination of injury, ineffectiveness, or incompetence, you may be looking for a little lightning in a bottle off the waiver wire to boost a category here or there. What follows are more deeper-league options, but a couple of these guys even might provide value in standard league formats depending on where you need a shot in the arm.

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Johnny Giavotella: Called Up

The Royals took another step forward in “The Process” Friday, promoting 24-year-old second basemen Johnny Giavotella to the big league club. Any move that severally limits the number of at bats of Chris Getz receives is a step in the right direction.

The 2008 draft is beginning to pay early dividends for the Royals. They selected Eric Hosmer third overall and took promising lefty Mike Montgomery 36th. Hosmer is a rookie of the year candidate already while Montgomery had stellar minor league numbers until running into a hiccup in the Pacific Coast League this season. In the second round, with the 49th overall pick, they selected Giavotella. The diminutive second basemen has hit well in every level of the minors, compiling a career line of .305/.375/.437 in 1971 plate appearances. His wOBA over the last two seasons at Double-A and Triple have been .390 and .383 respectively.

While those figures are impressive it’s important to notice that Giavotella played in some very hitter friendly ballparks. His home park at Northwest Arkansas in Double-A was extremely kind to hitters, and while the Triple-A Omaha Royals’ park is extremely neutral it is member of the Pacific Coast League. The average hitter in the PCL this season has a slash line of .287/.360/.453. So…yeah. This is why wRC+ was invented. It tells you how much better or worse a player was than league average, with 100 being the baseline. Giavotella’s wRC+ at AA and AAA were 139 and 116, so he was 39% and 16% better than league average at those levels. Those numbers are still good of course; just not as good as a ~.386 wOBA would have you believe. That’s not taking into account his position, though. An above average second basemen is extremely valuable, both in real life and here in our fantasy world.

Second base has become one of the deeper positions with players like Michael Cuddyer, Michael Young and Ryan Roberts qualifying there. Giavotella is going to get a chance to play every day and show the Royals what he can do leading into 2012. He’s hit well in the five games since his call up and ZiPS gives him a final line of .278/.336/.398 with 2 HR, 4 SB, and 13 RBI in 145 plate appearances. That’s more than you’re likely to get out of Maicer Izturis, Justin Turner, Jemile Weeks and Alexi Casilla to name a few. For now he’s a solid pickup in A.L. only leagues and could prove to be a viable starter in mixed leagues in 2012.


Disabled List Waiver Wire

The waiver wire for available players on the DL is getting thin right now. Most teams are shutting down players that could possibly come off the DL for the last couple weeks of the season. Here is a look at a few players owned in less than 50% of all leagues.

Justin Morneau (45.1% ESPN) – Justin is in AAA rehabbing for the next week. After that assignment, he should be getting a call back to the majors. There is no reason not to own him in any league.

Jose Tabata (20.2%) and Alex Presley (4.2%) – Both of these two Pirates look to be coming off the DL in the next week or so. They will replace Xavier Paul in the Pirates outfield, but how they will split up their playing time is still unknown. They will probably be platooned with Presley (LHH) to face RHP and Tabata (RHH) to face LHP. They both look to be a decent source of SB (Tabata 14 SB in 257 AB and Presley with 4 SB in 81 AB). Also, Presley has hit for 0.333 in his few plate appearances this season.

Jed Lowrie (11.9%) – Lowrie joins the Red Sox tonight (Monday). The key to his return is how Marco Scutaro and him will split playing time at SS. Terry Francona has stated that the two will split time depending on match ups. Lowrie has multiple position eligibilities, but it may not matter if he doesn’t get much playing time.

Jordan Schafer (1.0%) – Once he gets off the DL in about a week, he will be the everyday center fielder for the Astros. For an owner in need of steals (15 SB in 196 AB), he is a viable option, especially in deep or NL only leagues.

Stephen Strasburg (12.3 %) – Pick him up now if available. He looks like he is going to pitch a few MLB games. With other pitchers possibly being shut down at the end of season, he could be valuable for an owner in the playoffs or one making a final push up in the standings.

Adam Wainwright (1.7%) – He is not going to pitch this season, but for keeper leagues he should be added for next year. He has several uses during the off season even if an owner doesn’t plan on actually using him for a keeper. He could be added to a trade to sweeten the pot. Also, depending on the league rules, he could be held right until the keepers are selected as insurance in case one of the other keepers gets injured.

Ross Ohlendorf (0.0%) – The waiver wire for starting pitchers returning this season is slim. Ohlendorf is set to pitch later this week for the Pirates. If you are in need of SP, I would pick him up, hold him on the DL for a game or two to see how he performs and then possibly move him to your roster or drop him.


Matsui & Peavy: Waiver Wire

Let’s look at a pair of one-time fantasy stalwarts that have fallen by the wayside in recent years…

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Brett Lawrie: Now in the Majors, Eh?

The Toronto Blue Jays promoted third basemen Brett Lawrie from Triple-A Las Vegas yesterday, putting a Larry Walker sized weight on the Canadian born 21 year old’s shoulders. That isn’t to say he’ll be expected to be as good as Walker. He just happens to be the best Candian born player to debut for a Canadian team since Walker with the Expos in 1989.

Not only does Lawrie have the pressure of being the home country kid, he also was the main piece the Blue Jays got in return for trading Shaun Marcum to the Brewers. Marcum was a fan favorite and has continued to put up excellent numbers (3.66 xFIP) for his new team. Lawrie won’t be tarred and feathered if he has a sub-par two months, but he does have lofty expectations bestowed upon him. That being said, what can we expect from him going forward?

Looking at Lawrie’s .353/.415/.661 line at Triple-A without any context makes it seem far more impressive than it is, despite being young for the level. The Jays Triple-A affiliate plays in Las Vegas, one of the best hitters’ parks in the minors. It has a 115 HR park factor for right handed hitters. That’s basically the equivalent of Yankee Stadium to left handed batters. He had a .308 ISO at Vegas, and no matter how good of a hitter’s park Rogers Centre is he won’t come close to that figure. Being that he is just 21 years old I’m not comfortable telling you to take his A (.362 wOBA) and AA (.361) numbers as an indication of his true talent level. That said, he likely falls between those two numbers and his current .459 wOBA. Kids, especially top prospects, can improve greatly in a short period of time.

Lawrie had a preseason ZiPS projection of .254/.309/.400. If his current numbers were factored into that I imagine that triple slash line would improve. Currently the American League average is .256/.322/.401. That should be easily attainable for Lawrie. Third base hasn’t been a very deep position this season so any added production is welcomed. He’s almost certainly an instant upgrade over players like Casey McGehee (all three homer games aside), Danny Valencia or Placido Polanco. Jose Bautista will be shifting back to right field, with Eric Thames moving to left.

The call up of Lawrie means the demotion of Travis Snider. For all his minor league success – he has SMASHED Triple-A pitching – he hasn’t been able to figure it out in the major leagues. He has a career slash line of .248/.307/.423 in 877 plate appearances. His power is vanished, dropping from a .208 ISO in 2010 to just .123 this season. Hopefully, for his sake and Toronto’s, he’s able to figure things out back in Las Vegas.


Leonys Martin, Brad Peacock and Garrett Richards: Mining the Minors

So you’ve probably heard Brett Lawrie has been called up. Of course, if this is the first you’re getting wind of this, I urge you to click on over to your league site, type in “Lawrie” in the Available Players search and add him, even in mixed leagues. Erik Hahmann will have more Lawrie analysis coming shortly, so don’t forget to check back here.

Also debuting later today? Trayvon Robinson, who was arguably the Dodgers top hitting prospect until he was basically given away to Seattle at the deadline for reasons I’m still trying to figure out. Here’s my take from last month on Robinson, who I think is only actionable in AL-only play. As I mentioned previously, his new power-over-speed approach this year won’t necessarily suit him well at his new team’s digs, which play a lot like his old team’s digs.

Until Lawrie and Robinson get their careers underway, though, you can read about three other guys who could be joining them in the bigs pretty soon.

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