Archive for Waiver Wire

Smith and Damon: Waiver Wire

With the fantasy playoffs nigh, here is a pair of outfielders who can help patch injury-induced holes in your lineup.

Seth Smith (Yahoo: 32 percent owned, ESPN: 53 percent owned)

While Smith has a devoted, vocal following, he doesn’t yet have the widespread name recognition that leads to really high ownership rates. This is good news for owners who need power, as Smith is widely available and is wrapping up a month in which he clubbed 7 HR, which ties him for the 10th most in baseball for the month of August. There’s good news in the fact that Smith isn’t purely a Coors Field mirage — he hits nearly as well on the road as he does at home — but that doesn’t mean Smith is a set-and-forget player. He’s set in a platoon with Eric Young Jr., which keeps him facing righties, and while it means owners need to keep an eye on the Rockies’ lineup, it’s better than having him face lefties on a consistent basis. Like the Rockies, you’ll get the most out of Smith if you pair him with a partner — ideally one with consistent playing time.

The Rockies play more than half of their games at home in September, including 13 of 15 games from September 5th to the 21st, which keeps Smith where he’s been most successful this year for the end of most leagues’ playoffs. If you’re in a league that plays until the dying day of the regular season, Smith does close the season with 10 games on the road, though the first four are against the Astros. Smith is certainly playable on the road, especially in Houston, but utilizing your platoon partner exclusively for the last three days of the season is a wise move, as Smith finishes the year in AT&T Park, a place that has been unkind to him over his career.

Johnny Damon (Yahoo: 42 percent owned, ESPN: 70 percent owned)

The difference between the way Damon began August and the way he has ended it is, somewhat literally, the difference between night and day. Damon’s resurgence began during the second game of the Rays’ August 16th doubleheader against the Red Sox. He entered the nightcap hitting .163/.236/.265 for the month, went 2-for-5 in that game to start an eight-game hitting streak, and has hit .309/.333/.636 with 3 HR since.

Like Smith, Damon is playable at home or on the road, but he, too, is clearly better at one place. Damon has substantially better road rate stats, though his home counting stats are very similar to his away numbers. Still, like Smith, Damon will spend those crucial days in mid-September in his preferred venue as a 10 game road trip takes the Rays to Baltimore, Boston, and New York. While a slog up the eastern seaboard seems like might pose match up problems, Damon has actually played better against the Sox and Yankees than he has against the Orioles.

I’m not terribly concerned that this is a dead cat bounce as Damon was hitting .279/.327/.426 prior to suffering a hand contusion against the Twins on July 6, an injury that lingered longer than expected, though Damon did not land on the disabled list. I see his improvement since then less as resurgence and more of an extension of his early season play with an interlude of ineffectiveness between acts. While he’s unlikely to make you forget that Nelson Cruz is languishing on your DL during a playoff chase, Damon is at least a functional stopgap.


Davis, Smoak, Drew, Garcia, Carrasco: DL Returnees

As usual on Mondays, I will look at a few players coming off the DL that are owned in less than 50% of ESPN’s leagues.

Rajai Davis (hamstring, 37% owned): In Toronto, center fielders Colby Rasmus (wrist, 69% owned) and Davis are both on the DL right now. They should come off the DL in a couple weeks.

Toronto will play Rasmus regularly if he is available, limiting Davis’ value. Besides not getting regular playing time, Davis is coming off a hamstring injury. Toronto may have him take it easy for the rest of the year, thereby limiting his steals. In the mean time, Mike McCoy is getting the starts in CF.

Justin Smoak (nose, 19%): Justin looks to take back the Mariner’s 1B position from Mike Carp’s when he returns in around 2 weeks. Smoak’s fantasy value is being driven down by his his 20.7% K%. The K%, to go along with his low BABIP (0.253), is putting his AVG (0.231) under attack. With a below average AVG and league average home run ability (10.2 HR/FB), he will not cut it as a MLB 1B. He doesn’t look like a league keeper and hopefully your team has found a better solution for 2011 at 1B.

J.D. Drew (shoulder, 2%): Drew has played the most games in RF for the Red Sox this season. He is currently in the minors rehabbing and looks to join the Red Sox on Thursday when the rosters expand. I have not been able to find Boston’s plans for him, but it looks like there is not an everyday position for him when he returns. Josh Reddick has 2 more home runs in 20 less PA than Drew. Also he has a 0.283 AVG vice Drew’s 0.219. If I have a DL position available, I may pick him up and see how the situation unravels once he returns. If he starts, keep him. If he is just a bench player, ditch him.

Freddy Garcia (finger, 18% owned) – Garcia is a nice play for a team desperate for a few extra Wins. Freddy comes off the DL tonight (Monday) against Baltimore. While his peripheral stats aren’t the greatest, he is a good enough pitcher to keep the Yankees in a game to pick up a few Wins.

Carlos Carrasco (elbow, 5% owned) – Carrasco looks to be coming back in a week or two. If the Indians are still in the playoff picture will determine if he pitches this season. If they are still breathing, he could be used for a couple of starts. If not, he will likely be shut down for the season.


Fowler & Weeks: Waiver Wire

The fantasy season is coming down to the wire, so let’s focus on two waiver guys that will help boost your stolen base total down the stretch…

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Allen and Bourjos: Waiver Wire

Brandon Allen (Yahoo: 3 percent owned, ESPN: 4 percent owned)

Allen’s last two games in New York seem to paint a pretty accurate picture of him as a player. Tuesday night, he crushed two home runs over 400 feet; Wednesday, he struck out three times as part of an 0-for-4 night, seeing a total of 15 pitches.

Though some may call him a puffed-up product of the PCL, Allen’s minor league power numbers are far more than a league-induced mirage. Unless they’ve recently allowed metal bats in the PCL, a .956 OPS over parts of three seasons is still notable, especially since Allen pairs his power with an above-average walk rate, something he has continued to post during his minimal time in the majors. A little like Carlos Pena, Allen is a much better option in OBP leagues than he is in traditional AVG leagues, and a little like Mark Reynolds, if your league penalizes for strikeouts, it’s going to be hard for him to show enough power to overcome that handicap.

I’d like to see a little more of Allen in the AL before I recommend him across the board, but if you can live with him in a platoon situation, that’s a different matter. For his career, Allen has beaten righties like a rented mule, hitting .272/.365/.543 off of them, with 22 of his 44 career hits going for extra bases. Lefties still have the upper hand against Allen, he’s yet to hit a home run off of one, and his overall line is…execrable. .132/.246/.170 to be precise.

If you’re looking for Allen to revitalize a sagging outfield on his own, you’re in for a roller coaster ride. If you can pair him with someone like former teammate Chris Young, who approaches lefties with malice in his heart, that’s a solid solution.

Peter Boujos (Yahoo: 40 percent owned, ESPN: 60 percent owned)

While Allen, Mike Carp, and Casper Wells have all hit well of late out west, it’s hard to imagine anyone being hotter than Bourjos, who has been on quite a tear of late. Prior to Wednesday’s game, Boujos had hit .500/.500/.917 for the previous 7 days, and while he took an 0-for-4, his monthly line is still .359/.405/.667 with a season-best 5 HR.

Like Allen, Bourjos does have a pronounced platoon split, .336/.377/.570 against lefties versus .256/.313/.385 against righties, but unlike Allen, he’s worth playing against both port- and starboard-siders. While the unexpected power outburst is a pleasant surprise, owners can expect a more consistent contribution from Bourjos in the SB column. Unsurprisingly, Bourjos has better luck stealing off of right-handed pitchers — 12 SB in 15 attempts against righties compared to 5 SB in eight attempts against lefties — plus, while he slugs better against lefties, he has actually hit five of his eight home runs off of righties.

Typically, a .250-point OPS split is wide enough to merit a platoon partner if your bench can suffer the strain. However, with Bourjos, better to be thankful that he provides value against any type of pitcher than to risk losing out on his SB potential just because of a lower average. Between the two, I’d rather have Bourjos unless you’ve got a platoon partner to join with Allen. If you’re desperate for power, Allen’s more likely to provide it on anything resembling a consistent basis, but Boujos is a much stronger all-around option.


Kicking Rocks: One Last Hill to Climb

One of the primary reasons that people give as to why they opt not to play fantasy baseball but are the first to form a fantasy football league is the sheer length of the season.  Six months is apparently two months too long for them.  However, those of us that are able to cope with the time frame know the real answer; the amount of work it takes to, not only prep for the season, but to stay active and alert all season long can be a testament to one’s patience, work ethic and mental endurance.

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Logan Morrison, Mike Trout and Kevin Kouzmanoff: Mining the Minors

This week’s installment covers a banished first baseman, one of baseball’s top prospects and yet another third base option in Denver.

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2B Movers and Shakers

The following list is of the 2B that have had the largest changes in % owned at ESPN and the reasons behind the changes.

Risers

Darwin Barney (+25.1%) – I can not put a finger on one particular reason for the sudden jump in his ownership, but here are several ideas.

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Eric Young Jr. and Nick Hundley: Late Season Waiver Wire Help

Whether it’s beefing up for your head to head playoffs or just looking to boost yourself in a particular category as your roto season winds down, there are still guys out there on your waiver wire that can be of service to you if you dig deep enough.  We usually differentiate here between regular waiver wire pieces and deep league waiver wire pieces based on ownership percentages, but at this stage of the game, the depth of your league shouldn’t matter much.  If a guy can help, he can help.  Here’s two to consider…

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Trevor Plouffe and Luis Perez: Deep League Waiver Wire

Individual league trading deadline have either already passed or are quickly approaching. That means that the only way to try improving your team for the last month is dipping into the dangerous and murky free agent pool. Maybe these two players can help you.

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Tabata and Barney: Waiver Wire

Jose Tabata (Yahoo: 45 percent owned, ESPN: 39 percent owned)

This time of the season, most teams have their core set, and you’re looking to grab the hot hand off the wire. The great equalizer here is when a mid-tier player like Tabata spends an extended amount of time on the disabled list. If he had played all season, he would surely be rostered in more leagues than he is, but 50 days off can tax even the most patient owners, especially in leagues with few DL spots.

It’s been a whole week since Tabata came off the disabled list, so citing his line is almost futile because of the sample, but the fact that he has hits in all seven games in which he’s appeared — and multiple hits in four of the seven — isn’t just a bit of small sample size shenanigans.

Wrist injuries are known to linger, and while Tabata’s contusion was on his hand, there’s always some concern that injuries in that area will affect a hitter’s swing. With his seven game hitting streak, Tabata has effectively assuaged those fears. Will he hit .414/.469/.655 for the remaining six weeks of the season? Sorry, probably not, but if he hits close to his ZiPS ROS projection of .283/.363/.385, that’s certainly positive production from a wire grab this late in the season.

Tabata’s ability to help you in several categories makes him worth immediately rostering in NL-Only and probably in mixed as well, dependent, as always, on league depth. Eno Sarris noted some playing time concerns when Alex Presley rejoins the team later this month, and they’re still very much in play, but with the team having committed to Tabata long-term earlier this week and having long since been lapped in the NL Central race by the Brewers, it’s looking less likely that Tabata will lose too much time going forward.

Darwin Barney (Yahoo: 44 percent owned, ESPN: 57 percent owned)

Replacing Jimmy Rollins during his time on the DL isn’t going to be an easy task. Not only is shortstop one of those chronically shallow positions, but Stephen Drew, Hanley Ramirez, and Jose Reyes owners have probably already snapped up the best wire options. Perhaps the best way to replace Rollins is to figure out what categories he was most influential in for your team, and then target that.

Yuniesky Betancourt has 10 home runs and won’t be as big of a drain on your average as Alex Gonzalez might be. Emilio Bonifacio has six steals this month, but is mired in a 0-for-16 streak. Eduardo Nunez has four steals and isn’t quite as offensively inept as Bonifacio at the moment, but his playing time has been reduced to virtually nil with Alex Rodriguez’s return, which makes Bonifacio the better play if you need desperately speed from your SS.

The best all-around play that’s available in about 50 percent of leagues is Darwin Barney, who is technically a 2B, but has SS eligibility in most leagues. He’s having a solid month, hitting .310/.380/.408 with a home run and 2 SB. If you’re uninspired, I can’t blame you, but he’s not going to single-handedly weigh down your average, will swipe you a base or two, and may get driven in at a decent rate if the Cubs offense can stay as active as it has been so far in August. With who else is available, believe me when I say that you could do much worse.

Barney isn’t going to win you your league, but he isn’t likely to cost you a shot at the playoffs either. If he helps you tread water while waiting for an injured SS to come back, you’ve won the day. Keep an eye on the wire as well, as Reyes should be coming off the DL before too long. His owner may drop a better option back into the pool, in which case you can drop Barney and move forward with someone like Yunel Escobar.