Archive for Waiver Wire

Keeper Strategy — 2012 Impact Rookies: Shortstops

We continue our look-ahead to the 2012 fantasy baseball season by highlighting the potential impact rookies at each position. Why? Because it’s never too early to begin thinking about next year, even if you’re still trying to win your league right now. And for those of you in keeper leagues, particularly deeper ones, these primers will be especially helpful, because you’ll find out which young players may be worth snatching up now — before other owners get a clue — so you can hang onto them next season, when their value kicks in. Think of it like an investment requiring only a little up-front cost that could pay off big in the near future.

Much like my Mining the Minors columns on this site, which focus on current-season impact more than long-term upside, these 2012 rookie primers are meant for players who will fulfill or are expected to fulfill their rookiedom next year. Also much like my MTM work, the point here is to find the right mix of opportunity and talent, so that you’re picking up a player who can contribute, either in a starting role or as a reserve, from Day 1 or soon thereafter. Chances are, I’ll hit on many of these same players in depth at some point in future Mining the Minors columns, but for now, it’s good to get ahead of the curve with a snapshot of the talent at each position.

To give you a brief idea of just how this sort of thing can be worthwhile, I’m in two deep keeper leagues, one AL-only and one NL-only, and around this time last year, I picked up Mark Trumbo, Jordan Walden and Brandon Beachy. Worked out pretty well, if I do say so myself.

Click on the position to see previous primers: Catcher, First Base, Second Base, Third Base

Let’s hit on the shortstops.

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Salvador Perez & Kenley Jansen: Deep League Waiver Wire

Only two weeks left in the regular season, this is nearly your last chance to go diving into the free agent pool and attempt to uncover some treasures.

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Moore and Doumit: Waiver Wire

Matt Moore (Yahoo: 6 percent owned, ESPN: 2 percent owned)

The Rays called up Matt Moore earlier this week, means the team’s top four prospects according to Baseball America have all been called up this season. While Rookie of the Year candidate Jeremy Hellickson was ranked more highly than Moore going into the season, BA chose Moore’s fastball and curveball as the best in the system. It’s obvious that Moore is a hugely talented prospect, and he’ll almost surely be fantasy relevant next season, but is he fantasy relevant now?

The majors will be Moore’s third level of the season, and he has already thrown a career high 155 innings. The good news is that while it is more innings than he’s ever thrown before, it’s neither an objectively huge amount of innings nor a large increase from his previous high of 144.2 IP. His minuscule WHIP (0.95) and tremendous K-rate (12.2 K/9) between Double- and Triple-A make him an appealing option, but his viability will depend largely on how much the Rays actually let him see the field.

Joe Maddon tweeted a window into how they were going to use Moore, saying they hoped to use him in the same way they used David Price in 2008. Unfortunately for owners looking to capitalize on Moore’s call up, Price’s 2008 usage can best be described as “at-will”: He made one start, then pitched in long relief once and three times in short relief for a total of 17 innings. If Moore follows a similar plan, he’s likely to give you strikeouts when he pitches, but how often that happens is going to be a factor of his effectiveness as well as whether the Rays keep in contact with the Red Sox in the wild card race.

If you’re streaming starters in AL-Only, he’s likely to get a start next week during the Rays’ doubleheader against the Yankees, but that’s obviously an unfavorable matchup. Ultimately, I’m really excited to see him pitch, but because of uncertain usage, I just don’t see him being a worthwhile risk in the fantasy playoffs.

Ryan Doumit (Yahoo: 11 percent owned, ESPN: 2 percent owned)

124. If it’s a career best RBI total, that’s a great year. Unfortunately for Doumit, that’s his career high in games played, which is…ungood. When he’s healthy, Doumit provides solid production as far as catchers are concerned with a career line of .271/.334/.442 for a .776 OPS. Unfortunately, health has been hard to come by for Doumit, which makes it hard for owners to draft or apparently even roster him. While he’s had at least one DL stint every season since 2006, Doumit has only been placed on the DL more than once in the same season twice and never since 2007.

Since returning from his most recent extended stay on the disabled list — 65 days lost due to a broken ankle — on August 3, Doumit has hit .330/.369/.515 with 4 HR. His .884 OPS since the All-Star Break is fifth best among catchers with at least 50 PAs, but he’s still rostered in fewer leagues than Jorge Posada or John Buck.

Doumit is getting the vast majority of the starts for the Pirates as the year draws to a close, and is likely to continue to do so as the team tries to evaluate whether or not to pick up his options for 2012 and 2013. With his yearly major injury behind him, Doumit is a safe pickup going forward and, unless you’re riding Alex Avila, Mike Napoli, or another of the top catchers, there’s a good chance Doumit will be an upgrade for you.


Buchholz and Liriano: DL WW

With pitchers being shut down to prevent injuries, there are a few pitchers (< 50% ownership rate) looking to coming back this season. Last week, I looked at 2 of the pitchers, Scott Baker (20% owned) and Johan Santana (8% owned). They would have the same opportunity of contributing as the two pitchers listed today, but with a better chance of being available in a league

All owned numbers are from ESPN.

Clay Buchholz (back- 43% owned) – Clay is making progress for a return back to Boston. With the current disrepair of the Red Sox pitching staff, I could see them making a larger than normal push to get Clay back into the rotation.

He is just beginning to throw from the mound, so a return is still up in the air. I see him getting one or two starts to see if he is ready for the post season. He may be a source of a win or two with the help of Boston’s offense.

His talent level will be tough to predict for just a couple of games. He put up around 6.4 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 during the time he has thrown this season. I would not be surprised to see his K’s down a bit because of being rushed back into pitching and his back, which don’t heal easily, was the spot of injury. Depending on the risk an owner is willing to take, he may be an option over the last week or so.

Francisco Liriano (shoulder – 41% owned) – Francisco is trying to come back to pitch a bit this season. No exact return time has been reported, so when or if he returns is still unknown. Like Buchholz, his ability to help much over the last few games is limited. His best usage may be for a team in the finals of a H2H league that has lost some starting pitching recently.

Before going on the DL, he average 7.4 K/9 and 5.0 BB/9. These numbers are off from 2010 when he had 9.4 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9. It seems his ERA/FIP/xFIP follow his fastball speed:

2005 (94.8 MPH): 5.70/3.32/1.99
2006 (94.7 MPH): 2.16/2.55/2.38
2008 (90.9 MPH): 3.91/3.87/4.25
2009 (91.7 MPH): 5.80/4.87/4.48
2010 (93.7 MPH): 3.62/2.66/2.95
2011 (91.8 MPH): 4.84/4.55/4.47

If he makes one start, an owner may look to see where his fastball stands. If it is averaging less than 92 MPH, you make look at other options. If there is any report from the minors of his speed, I would subtract 2 MPH from it. Usually only the top speed is reported, so the average will be less.

Liriano may or may not be heading back to the Twins. I would not consider him a top SP candidate, but he could be one of the few options left this late in the season.


Davis & Montero: Waiver Wire

Let’s take a look at a pair of two young AL East players that can provide a quick boost for your team down the stretch…

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Morgan and Gordon: Waiver Wire

Nyjer Morgan (Yahoo: 18 percent, ESPN: 19 percent owned)

There are plenty of players out there who are known more for their antics than for their production, and Morgan may well be one of them, but when his alter egos have alter egos, it’s hard to blame people for failing to dig deeper than that. However, if you’re one of the people who follow T-Plush on twitter, but not in the box score, you’re missing out.

Morgan is wrapping up a career year and has become a much better rounded player than he was in previous seasons. He’s stolen far fewer bases than in the past — just 12 this season compared to 42 in 2009 and 34 in 2010 — but he’s supplementing the steals he is getting with a .313 BA and a career best 4 HR. While his 12 steals are something of a low water mark, he has grabbed six since in the last three weeks, so there is some concrete hope that he’ll be a bigger asset in that category going forward.

While the return of Carlos Gomez could spell reduced time for Morgan, I’m less than concerned. Morgan isn’t a huge defensive liability, so the switch from Gomez to him isn’t a simple defense for offense trade; it’s a big step down at the plate for a small gain in the field. I could see Gomez stealing a few PAs a week as a late-inning defensive replacement, but the Brewers would be foolish to put the two in a straight platoon.

Dee Gordon (Yahoo: 9 percent owned, ESPN: 14 percent owned)

September call-ups are a mixed bag as far as fantasy goes, some of the players called up are worth a speculative grab, others are like ackee: toxically unripe. Though he is a rookie, Gordon isn’t a September callup in the traditional sense; his return to the Dodgers was from the disabled list, not from Albuquerque. He certainly looks healthy once again as in the six games since he returned from the DL, Gordon has 12 hits and boasts a line of .462/.462/.615.

At this point in the month, anything said about a player like Gordon should set off huge bells in your mind because of the sample size. His overall 2011 line of .277/.288/.336 is probably closer to his real talent level, but that doesn’t mean that Gordon isn’t worth your time. While his performance at the plate makes him a prime candidate for regression, his performance on the basepaths is intriguing. He’s already swiped four bags since Sept. 1, a trait, unlike his batting average, which is confirmed by his previous time in the majors.

The Dodgers are clearly keen on utilizing Gordon’s speed, as well they should be, and he should get plenty of chances to steal from the leadoff position. While he’ll have fewer opportunities as his on-base percentage rejoins reality, it seems likely that Gordon will still rack up a decent total for the rest of the month, provided he continues to get the green light.

If you need stolen bases badly, Gordon is likely to outperform Morgan. However, if you’re looking to replace an ineffective or injured player, I’d rather grab Morgan, whose production across categories seems more likely to stick around past the next week than Gordon’s does.


Keeper Strategy — 2012 Impact Rookies: Third Basemen

When it comes to looking ahead to the 2012 fantasy baseball season by highlighting the potential impact rookies at each position, there’s just no slowing us down. Why? Because it’s never too early to begin thinking about next year, even if you’re still trying to win your league right now. And for those of you in keeper leagues, particularly deeper ones, these primers will be especially helpful, because you’ll find out which young players may be worth snatching up now — before other owners get a clue — so you can hang onto them next season, when their value kicks in. Think of it like an investment requiring only a little up-front cost that could pay off big in the near future.

Much like my Mining the Minors columns on this site, which focus on current-season impact more than long-term upside, these 2012 rookie primers are meant for players who will fulfill or are expected to fulfill their rookiedom next year. Also much like my MTM work, the point here is to find the right mix of opportunity and talent, so that you’re picking up a player who can contribute, either in a starting role or as a reserve, from Day 1 or soon thereafter. Chances are, I’ll hit on many of these same players in depth at some point in future Mining the Minors columns, but for now, it’s good to get ahead of the curve with a snapshot of the talent at each position.

To give you a brief idea of just how this sort of thing can be worthwhile, I’m in two deep keeper leagues, one AL-only and one NL-only, and around this time last year, I picked up Mark Trumbo, Jordan Walden and Brandon Beachy. Worked out pretty well, if I do say so myself.

Click on the position to see previous primers: Catcher, First Basemen, Second Basemen

Time to get to the third basemen.

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Sizemore and Paredes: Available 2B Qualified Help

Today I am looking at available 2nd basemen (<10% owned) that could help a team in the last few weeks of the season.

Note: All owned numbers are from ESPN.

Scott Sizemore (6.7% owned) – Scott began the season with the Tigers before getting traded to the A’s. Since the trade, he has seen regular time at 3B. He looks to be a decent option for a team needing help at 2B (or 3B).

Scott has hit for decent power this season with 9 home runs in only 360 PA, with 2 to 3 coming in every month he has played. In September so far, he already had 2 home runs to go with a 0.294 AVG.

If you believe in going with the current hot hitter, Sizemore is your man. In the last 7 games, he has a 0.294/0.400/0.647 slash line. The improvement is not from an inflated BABIP (0.231), but instead from cutting his K% down from around 25% to 10%.

Also, Scott is qualified at both 2B and 3B. The extra versatility helps with maintaining a full active roster in the last couple of weeks. He will probably not be able to maintain his current increase in AVG, but for players owned in less than 10% of all league, Scott is probably the best 2B available.

Jimmy Paredes (2.1% owned) – Jimmy has been the starting 3B (2B qualified for this season) for the Astros since the 1st of August. He has produced a triple slash line of 0.300/0.336/0.433. On the surface he looks like a good option, but his stats are a bit inflated.

He currently has a 0.400 BABIP for the season. This BABIP will not be maintained (a season’s best value is usually around 0.380). Besides a BABIP adjustment lowering his average, he strikes out more than 26% of the time.

The key for Jimmy is that he is starting everyday and accumulating counting stats, no matter how small. If an owner’s AVG is set in the rankings for the season, it may be best to add a hitter like Jimmy. He is not a good player, but he is available and playing everyday (no platoon) and that is all some teams need in a player.

Trevor Plouffe (4.2% owned) is another option and Dan Wade recently wrote about him here at Rotographs.


Surkamp and Stewart: Deep League Waiver Wire

This week’s hidden gems for you deep leaguers still in the hunt for the cash include a pair of young pitchers. Just what you want to hang your season on, huh?

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Plouffe and Freese: Waiver Wire

Trevor Plouffe (Yahoo: 3 percent owned, ESPN: 5 percent owned)

Though there are leagues out there that do factor in defense in one way or another, fantasy is by and large an offensive game, yet for the majority of the season, Plouffe was untouched in fantasy specifically because of his defense. To clarify, Plouffe had solid numbers in Triple-A this year — .313/.384/.635 with 15 HR in 51 games — yet languished behind Tsuyoshi Nishioka because of extremely inconsistent defensive play. Even when he was recalled, his playing time was sporadic at best, but injuries have forced the Twins into some odd defensive arrangements and opened the door for Plouffe to finally get consistent PAs.

Over the last three weeks, Plouffe has made the most of this new chance, hitting .292/.344/.461 with a pair of home runs even after taking an 0-for-6 in Monday’s doubleheader. His power is showing up more as gap power, rather than over-the-fence power, at the moment but his ISO is still above average thanks to a rising line drive rate, and his SS/2B eligibility make that power all the more appealing. He’s pulling the ball well, so while Target Field has a reputation for keeping home runs in the park, Plouffe shouldn’t suffer too badly; it’s easier to hit a ball out to left field there than it is to right.

Plouffe’s future is still a little hazy, though he has shown improvements on defense, which may give him a leg up in camp next year. AL-Only keeper league players might find it worth their time to keep an eye on him for this month, but unless he sets the world on fire, he’s not going to be handed the 2012 starting job until he wins it next spring. In the short term, he’ll be in the lineup close to every day for the rest of this season, which makes him a viable play if you’re in need of a middle infielder.

David Freese (Yahoo: 43 percent owned, ESPN: 65 percent owned)

A hot month of April had Freese flying off the wire early in the season, but a two-month layoff due to a broken hand has him available once again in many leagues. Since returning from the DL on June 28, Freese has hit a solid .276/.327/.422 with 7 HR from third base, and he’s driving in nearly 20 percent of the runners on base ahead of him, which has given him a good RBI rate.

While he’s producing well enough to be worth adding now, potential owners should take special note of the Cardinals’ weeklong road trip to Pennsylvania that starts next Monday. Freese hits a passable, if reduced, .269/.324/.415 at Busch, but excels on the road by hitting .329/.369/.456 with a fairly even split of his home runs.

If you’ve grabbed him for your bench and really want to pick and choose the games for which you start him, Freese has hit .369/.411/.554 in 73 PAs against lefties so far, while hitting .280/.328/.402 against righties. Generally speaking, playing Freese only against left handed pitching seems like overmanaging; his line against right-handers may be lower, but it isn’t objectively bad. Better to take both sides of the coin than to lose out on some of Freese’s production.