With the season swiftly coming to a close, I thought I would take a look back at some of my deep league waiver wire recommendations from early in the season. This exercise is not to gloat, but to examine the players and if their performance this year changes their future outlook and role for next season. Upon reviewing my recs, most did not do much, but two guys really stood out: Ryan Roberts and Chris Heisey.

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Welcome to the pressure test.

If you still care about waiver wire pickups, chances are good that you’re in a title game. There’s a temptation to move away from your regulars for the hot hand, especially those of you in head-to-head leagues, and that’s a call you have to make for yourself. My personal bias is to dance with the team that brought you, but I can’t blame Andrew McCutchen owners for getting a little jittery.

Here’s the caveat: Over the course of a week, anything can happen. Guys post crazy high BABIPs over a week; pitchers you’ve depended on all year don’t have their good stuff, it’s all in play. That’s why, while I recommend staying with players you know rather than rolling the dice, there’s no such thing as a sure thing when the sample size is this small.

Nolan Reimold (Yahoo: 5 percent owned, ESPN: percent owned)

In the month of September, only two players have at least 3 HR and 5 SB. They are: Matt Kemp and Nolan Reimold — if you happen to be in the 1 percent of leagues where Kemp is available, go ahead and grab him right now. Don’t worry, I’ll wait. For the other 95 percent of you, Reimold is a somewhat risky play, but the upside is real. His average is surprisingly low, just .256 for the month, but the back end of his slash line — .404/.558 — is worth the risk if your league counts those categories.

Of the hot hands out there, Reimold is among those I like best. You can hope that his .241 BABIP this month will rise, and he’s already notched three more hits and a home run this week, so the floor hasn’t dropped from beneath him yet — though he isn’t going to see too many more pitchers of the quality of Kyle Weiland and John Lackey in the coming games.

If you’re in a traditional 5X5, his average is somewhat worrisome. If you’re in an OBP or OPS league, Reimold seems like a good gamble, especially if you’re unwilling to wait on the health of someone like Carlos Gonzalez.

Rafael Furcal (Yahoo: 38 percent owned, ESPN: percent owned)

A few weeks ago, I wrote that I felt like Javier Vazquez had so thoroughly burned bridges with some owners with his terrible first half that people who needed his skills were still avoiding him; the very same thing could be said of Furcal. His year with the Dodgers was the stuff of nightmares, totally unplayable in a fantasy sense, as he alternated between injury and ineffectiveness, compiling a pitiful .197/.272/.248 with a home run and 5 SB in just 37 games over the season’s first four months.

Since moving to St. Louis at the trade deadline, Furcal has reversed fortune, hitting .262/.326/.424 with 6 HR and 4 SB in the 43 games he’s played in nearly seven weeks. His September numbers are even better, as all four of his steals and half of his home runs have come in the last 17 games and his overall line for the month is a much more impressive .299/.382/.507.

He’s still not putting up the kind of numbers he did in 2008, but he has been a boon for the Cardinals and could be a stopgap for Troy Tulowitzki owners. Tulo is likely to come back later this week, but stashing Furcal just in case something goes awry in the next day or two is a prudent stratagem.

Josh Tomlin (Elbow – 33.5% owned) – Josh is schedule to start on September 24th. It will be the 26 year old’s first start since August 24th.

Josh’s season started out hot with an ERA of 2.74 and a record of 6-2 after 10 starts. His K/BB ratio of 3.4:1 was decent, but a 0.197 BABIP was driving his stats. In the next 16 starts, he went 6-5 with a 5.24 ERA, even though his K/BB ratio jumped to 5:1. The main reason his ERA jumped was that his BABIP was 0.288.

The game on the 24th looks to be a nice chance to sneak in a win since Tomlin is facing the Twins anemic offense. It will probably be his only start of the season unless he pitches the last game of the season on the 28th. The game is a time to spot start him for an owner in a tight Wins race or an owner plague by starters being shut down for the season.

Joel Peralta (17.8% owned) and Kyle Farnsworth (elbow – 72.5% owned) – Kyle has not closed, or even thrown in a game, since September 10th. He has been shut down with elbow discomfort. He plans on returning soon, but the exact date is not known. In the meantime, Joel Peralta has been getting the Save opportunities for the Rays (a save on Saturday and Sunday).

Joel has pitched decently this season with a 3.06 ERA and a 3.28:1 K/BB ratio. Unless an owner was in a Holds league (18 holds in 2011), there is little reason to own him until now. He could be the boost an owner needs to move up a spot or two in the Saves category. The Rays are still fighting for a playoff spot and with over half of their games against the Yankees, the games should be close with plenty of save opportunities.

Watch the headlines for news of Farnsworth returning to his closer role. Until then, enjoy the few saves that can be squeezed out of Peralta.

Scott Baker (Elbow – 19.0% owned) and Jonathan Sanchez (Ankle – 35.6% owned) – Both look to return this season, but will be limited to bullpen use only. Owners planning on starts from them will need to look else where.

Johan Santana (Shoulder – 8.6% owned) – He will not be coming back this season.

It’s the last full week of the regular season, so here’s some middle infield and pitching help for those of you needing to make up some ground in your leagues (or pad your lead, either works)…

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I’ll be here by 12:30! We can talk streamers, keepers, sandwiches, you know, whatever.

Let’s continue looking ahead to the 2012 fantasy baseball season by highlighting the potential impact rookies at each position. Why? Because it’s never too early to begin thinking about next year, even if you’re still trying to win your league right now. And for those of you in keeper leagues, particularly deeper ones, these primers will be especially helpful, because you’ll find out which young players may be worth snatching up now — before other owners get a clue — so you can hang onto them next season, when their value kicks in. Think of it like an investment requiring only a little up-front cost that could pay off big in the near future.

Much like my Mining the Minors columns on this site, which focus on current-season impact more than long-term upside, these 2012 rookie primers are meant for players who will fulfill or are expected to fulfill their rookiedom next year. Also much like my MTM work, the point here is to find the right mix of opportunity and talent, so that you’re picking up a player who can contribute, either in a starting role or as a reserve, from Day 1 or soon thereafter. Chances are, I’ll hit on many of these same players in depth at some point in future Mining the Minors columns, but for now, it’s good to get ahead of the curve with a snapshot of the talent at each position.

To give you a brief idea of just how this sort of thing can be worthwhile, I’m in two deep keeper leagues, one AL-only and one NL-only, and around this time last year, I picked up Mark Trumbo, Jordan Walden and Brandon Beachy. Worked out pretty well, if I do say so myself.

Click on the position to see previous primers: Catchers, First Base, Second Base, Third Base, Shortstop

Up next? Outfielders.

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Marco Scutaro (Yahoo: 29 percent owned, ESPN: 19 percent owned)

While the Red Sox seem to be wilting a bit in the season’s final days, Marco Scutaro is trending in the opposite direction. After missing a week of action in mid-August due to a stiff back, Scutaro has been consistently in the lineup and has been hitting well ever since. His .325/.383/.482 line since his return actually undersells how good he’s been lately, as he has hit .436/.489/.641 in the 10 games he has started since September 1.

His recent run of great form is, as many runs of great form are, built on an inflated BABIP — .425 over the last 12 games — but there’s more to Scutaro’s success than simply getting luckier of late. His strikeouts have decreased steadily in the second half of the season, which means he’s putting the ball into play more often, which, in turn, made his spike in BABIP even better for owners.

While Scutaro won’t bat .425 on balls in play forever, his first half BABIP of .267 was due to rise, and he is racking up line drives at a better than average rate. It would not surprise me to see his September BABIP above .300 at month’s end, provided his line-drive rate doesn’t suddenly plummet. As long as that doesn’t happen, his BA will be an asset to anyone in need of a MI, but he should also contribute in both R and a few RBI.

Allen Craig (Yahoo: 3 percent owned, ESPN: 2 percent owned)

We have now reached the point of the season where any injury, no matter how trifling it may seem, could be a season-ending injury. So it is with the hand injury Matt Holliday suffered late in Tuesday night’s game. If this were June or July, Holliday would take a few days off to let the swelling subside, then the team would reevaluate to see if he needed a stay on the disabled list, but considering that the time it’s going to take for the swelling to go down equals about half the remaining games, the Cards may well choose to shut Holliday down for the year.

The beneficiary of St. Louis’ left field vacancy is likely to be Allen Craig, another of the Cardinals young players whose season has been something of a jumble due to injuries. Craig missed 15 days early in the season with a strained groin, then a subsequent 63 days in the summer with a knee contusion. In his one full, healthy month, Craig started 17 games and hit .350/.420/.550. Obviously we can’t simply extrapolate that month out and say what a full season would look like, but the fact remains that when Craig has been healthy and in the lineup, he has been productive for the Cards.

Craig hit fifth on Wednesday, behind Pujols and Berkman in the heart of the Cardinals’ order. If Tony LaRussa continues to put him in that spot, it bodes well for his RBI chances as pitchers could certainly pitch around one or both of the other two — depending on the situation — to face Craig. If he can take advantage of those opportunities, his numbers will be strong heading into the end of the season. He also offers lineup versatility as he appeared in eight games at second base earlier in the year.

There is one caveat with Craig. The Cardinals are 4.5 games behind the Braves in the wild card race and just 5.5 behind the Brewers in the divisional race. Holliday is almost certain to miss the entire series against the Phillies, but if the team can gain ground on either opponent, setting up a real race over the last 12 games of the season, there will be a real incentive to get Holliday back. The extent of Holliday’s injury is definitely a factor here as well, but if the Cardinals are within 2-3 games of the Braves with a week to play and Holliday is anything resembling healthy, it may be hard to keep him off the field. In that case, Craig’s playing time becomes spotty once again. I don’t find this scenario particularly likely, but it’s worth watching if you choose to pick up Craig.

As Eno said in his Stat Grabs piece the other day, there’s no time and probably no chance to grab a well-rounded player off your waiver wire.  We are officially at the midway point here in the final month of the season and those fighting for the title in their roto leagues or are battling in a late championship week in their head to head league are probably looking for specific category help.   Catchers aren’t usually the biggest contributors in the game, but for fantasy purposes, there are probably enough out there that are finishing strongly and can kick in a little assistance here and there.

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Mike Trout (8% ESPN, 12% Yahoo) – Coming into the season, Mike was considered one of the top prospects in baseball. Since starting his first game on July 8th, he has struggled a bit in the majors by producing a slash line of 0.220/0.282/0.420. Fantasy owners have noticed his struggles and his ownership rate has dropped to 8% in ESPN leagues and 12% in Yahoo leagues. Several factors point to him being a valuable assest over the last few weeks of the season. Read the rest of this entry »

Injuries at this time of year, especially to your star players, can be absolutely brutal.  Head to head league owners are playing in championship games and every little bit of production helps as your roto season winds down.  With the likelihood that your waiver wire has been picked cleaner than a Thanksgiving turkey at Fatty McButterpants’ house, grabbing a last minute injury replacement just might be enough to carry you to the end.  For you NL-only leaguers and deep mixed league owners, here are two you might consider.

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