Monday afternoon saw a flurry of deals as trading season kicked into high gear, but perhaps none was more surprising than seeing the Seattle Mariners send longtime star Ichiro Suzuki to the New York Yankees. In terms of sheer star power – Ichiro, a Yankee! – it’s delicious, but the actual on-field effects may be a bit muted.
The Yankees aren’t acquiring the legendary 2004 Ichiro, who hit .372/.414/.455 with 262 hits, and they’re not even getting quality late-career 2010 Ichiro, who hit .315/.359/.394 with 42 steals. The version of Ichiro that will be coming to the Bronx is the one who has hit only .268/.302/.342 over the last two seasons, with 2012’s .281 wOBA tying him with Jeff Francoeur & Cameron Maybin for the lowest mark by an outfielder in all of baseball.
It’s not too difficult to see why Ichiro has been struggling, because while he’s not really striking out more than he had previously, his walk rate – never great in the first place – is down to a career-low 4.0%. Then as his 38-year-old legs slow, he’s no longer beating out the infield hits he was once famous for. (He has just 13 so far, with more than half the season gone; only twice in his career has he had a season with fewer than 35, and never less than 31.) It’s no surprise that as the infield hits have fallen off since 2010 that his BABIP numbers over the last two seasons are not only under .300, they’re the first time he’s ever been under .316. Not even Ichiro, it seems, can outrun Father Time. Read the rest of this entry »