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It’s that time of year again! One quick caveat out of the way — these are bold predictions, meant to highlight interesting players in a pie-in-the-sky kind of way — and then we can start dreaming. I did okay with last year’s bold predictions, so let’s try it again:

1) Andrelton Simmons will be this year’s Jose Altuve.
Jose Altuve began last season as our 16th-ranked preseason consensus second baseman. He hit .290 with seven home runs and 33 stolen bases and ended the season as our 11th-ranked second baseman. This year Andrelton Simmons is our 16th-ranked preseason shortstop. It’s not actually that bold to predict him to join the top twelve shortstops, but hey, that’s how I get a couple right. Simmons has more power than Altuve, I like him for a similar batting average, and atop the Braves order, he might actually steal 25 bags.

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We’re making bold predictions this week. My ten will be guys currently not being drafted as “starters” in ten-team mixed leagues that I think should and will be. In other words, I’ll be picking a guy going outside the top ten at each infield position, two guys going outside the top 50 in the outfield, and three guys going outside the top 60 starters. All ADP numbers are from ESPN.

1) Jonathan Lucroy, currently the 14th catcher being selected, will be a top ten catcher. Lucroy was well on his way to being a top ten catcher last season had he not missed two months in the middle of the year with a broken hand. Check out how he compared to other catchers with 300+ PA last year in the five roto categories on a per plate appearance basis:

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Obviously, we’d all like to do our fantasy drafts the day before the MLB season opens, but more often than not, someone in your league has some ill-timed commitment to fulfill and the league is then forced into some madcap, Keystone Kop-like struggle to try and settle on a draft date that works for everyone. Calendars are opened, spreadsheets are created and Google docs are distributed. Finally, after an annoying round of emails where you are forced to learn of children’s birthday parties, visits from in-laws and how some idiot in your league thinks that his life is more important than that of anyone else, you settle in on a date three weeks before Opening Day. The date, while convenient for everyone, is certainly not ideal. Read the rest of this entry »

Because the standard roto format uses batting average, most analysis, rankings, and projections are based on that and the other standard roto categories. If your league uses additional categories or replaces traditional categories with new ones like average being replaced by OBP, you’re can’t just rely on the normal analysis and cheat sheets provided by fantasy sites. You’re going to have to do a little bit of extra work. The purpose of this post is to aid those playing in leagues in which OBP has replaced average as a category.

When  OBP replaces average, you can’t simply look at the guys who have the best OBPs to determine who gains an advantage in this format. What really matters is the difference between OBP and average. To determine when the difference becomes significant, I created a spreadsheet with all qualified hitters from the last three years with their OBP and average. Then I calculated the difference between those numbers,  the mean and the standard deviation for the differences. The mean was .068 and the standard deviation was .02. I then sorted the differences large to small and cut out all players that were within one standard deviation of the mean. Below are the lists of players who were more than one standard deviation from the mean. Read the rest of this entry »

We don’t want to give you ranking fatigue here, but it is useful to tier your positional ranks. I like to get the last guy in a tier — especially among closers, where the production is so volatile and tied specifically to role. But even among outfielders, the idea is that you’ll get a guy that’s equal-ish to another group, but you’ll get him cheaper.

We split the National League and the American League so that you’ll get the best coverage of the position. There are a lot of outfielders, after all. And yes, some of these guys will have moved since the consensus ranks. Focus more on the tiers than the placement of the players within. That was more intuitive, and probably a little bit reactionary.

To the tiers.

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Usually one of the shallower positions in fantasy, shortstop has added some much needed depth with players like Ben Zobrist and Martin Prado joining the fun. Let’s take a look at the tiers based on our Rotographs consensus rankings.

Tier 1:

Starlin Castro
Jose Reyes
Troy Tulowitzki

Castro is extremely durable and hasn’t even reached his peak seasons yet, what’s not to love? The 23-year-old’s average dipped below .300 last year (.283) but he increased his home runs, steals, and RBIs. He’s a safe bet to at least match last season’s totals which is why he’s number one in our rankings. Reyes can easily grab the top spot in this tier if he hits like he did in the second half of last season when his line was .312/.361/.495 with 20 stolen bases. He’s leading off for what should be an impressive Toronto lineup so he’ll have ample run scoring opportunities as well.

If healthy the top spot would belong to Troy Tulowitzki without question. No one provides the type of overall production at the position like the seventh year man out of Long Beach State. He looks to be recovered from the groin injury that cut his 2012 season short. If other owners are wary you may be able to pick up him at a discount on draft day.

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“Out of crisis comes opportunity.”

That’s the mantra anyone contemplating the Marlins infield should probably try to hold on to. Cause it’s definitely a crisis, that squad. Practically every position is up for grabs, and some new players will own starting roles in Miami this year. The problem, though, is that most of the players that might take the opportunity born of this crisis are flawed, and some are extremely flawed. There might not be a mixed league starter in the whole crew.

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Since we are getting dangerously close to draft day in most leagues, many of you readers will have some questions you’d like answered. In an effort to help, I am giving you a chance to get your questions answered today.

All reasonable questions posted in the comments by 9:00 PM EDT will be answered. What makes a question reasonable? Glad you asked.

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Colorado isn’t synonymous with good pitching and while their rotation could certainly use some help, the bullpen ain’t too shabby.

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In 2012, Aroldis Chapman threw 71.2 thrilling innings out of the bullpen for Cincinnati with 38 saves, an absurd 122 strike outs and a 1.51 ERA with an equally (and likely more) impressive 1.55 FIP. In 2013, or at least at this point in the middle of spring training, Aroldis is still slated to be in the Rotation for the Reds which certainly changes the bullpen landscape. Whether Aroldis stays in the rotation or ends up back in pen will largely depend on his early results, health, the effectiveness of the rest of the bullpen and Dusty Baker. I don’t think I’m the only baseball fan who drools at the thought of 200 innings from the Cuban Missile, so let’s hope he stays in the rotation while we talk about the Reds bullpen. 

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