Over the weekend we saw two impact bats from the same last place Houston outfield get traded to different playoff contenders in the National League East. Lets take a gander at how the productivity of Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn looks from here on out.
At the MLB trade deadline, the Los Angeles Dodgers sent veteran shortstop Rafael Furcal and cash considerations to the St. Louis Cardinals in exchange for minor league outfielder Alex Castellanos. Tommy Rancel, over in the FanGraphs section, covered the deal when it happened, so now here at RotoGraphs, we’re going to discuss the fantasy ramifications. Read the rest of this entry »
The following is a quick look at how the fantasy value changed for a few players involved in trades that were made this weekend.
Ubaldo Jimenez (to Indians) – Ubaldo’s fantasy value doesn’t look to change much by going from the Rockies to the Indians. The most obvious change is that he should allow less runs by moving from a hitter friendly park in Denver to a league neutral park in Cleveland. On the other hand, the Indian’s defense (-16.6 UZR) is worse than the Rockies (-0.8 UZR) which will lead to higher ERA and WHIP as more batted balls become hits. Also, he will be facing a little tougher competition in the AL, so his ERA and WHIP could go higher.
Yesterday, the Cardinals, Blue Jays and White Sox exchanged players with each team ending up with the following players:
Blue Jays: Colby Rasmus, Mark Teahen, Brian Tallet, Trever Miller, P.J. Walters
Cardinals: Octavio Dotel, Marc Rzepczynski, Edwin Jackson, Corey Patterson
White Sox: Jason Frasor, Zach Stewart
Here is a quick look at how the trade effects the fantasy value of players involved and not involved in the trade.
Colby Rasmus (to Toronto) – Rasmus’s fantasy value probably doesn’t change too much going from St. Louis to Toronto. Here are the main factors I see changing his value.
1. In St Louis, he batted towards the top of the order, 2nd, 5th or 6th. With Toronto, I would not be surprised to see him fall into the the #2 spot. This will give him more opportunities for Runs, but less for RBIs.
2. He will probably be seeing better pitching from the teams in the AL East compared to NL Central. This advantage is less this season than in previous seasons as the NL Central pitching has improved, notably with Milwaukee.
3. Rogers Centre in Toronto (100 wOBA park factor) is friendlier to hitters than Busch Stadium (95 wOBA park factor).
Rasmus’s fantasy value will not be exactly known until the Blue Jays define his exact role. I would not adjust his fantasy value up or down at this point.
Edwin Jackson – (to St. Louis) – Jackson’s move to St. Louis initially looks to improve his fantasy value for the following reasons:
1. He moves out of the 6 man rotation that Chicago was using. He will now be pitching every 5 days for St. Louis, giving his owners more chances to accumulate stats.
2. Busch Stadium (95 wOBA park factor) is more of a pitcher’s park than U.S. Cellular Field (103 wOBA park factor).
3. His ERA (3.92) is a little inflated compared to his FIP (3.21) xFIP (3.42) and SIERA (3.65) and could decrease as the season goes on.
4. Dave Duncan Effect. If Duncan could make Todd Wellemeter an OK pitcher for a season, he should be able to at least keep Jackson at the same production level.
The move to St. Louis looks to only improve Jackson’s value.
Brent Morel – With Mark Teahen gone from Chicago, Morel looks to take over as the everyday 3B for the White Sox. When both players were on the team this season, Morel started 62 games at 3B while Teahen started 23. While Morel’s rate stats look to remain constant, he will see a jump in his counting stats because he will see more time at 3B.
St. Louis Outfield – The trade of Rasmus helps the value of Berkman, Jay and Holliday as each will not have to share time with Rasmus in the field. Skip Schumaker will be the back up OF if one of the big 3 go down, but at this time he is worthless in fantasy baseball.
St. Louis Bullpen (gains Octavio Dotel and Marc Rzepczynski) – With 5 different pitchers recording a save this year, the Cardinals did not have a steady closer at the beginning of the season. Since Salas has taken over as the closer, there has been less fluctuation in the bullpen. I don’t see Dotel or Rzepczynski becoming the closer anytime soon.
All park factors are from StatCorner.com
Yesterday, the Royals Wilson Betemit was traded to the Tigers for 2 low level/talent minor league prospects. Here is a quick look at the fantasy implications of the trade.
Wilson Betemit (8% owned ESPN) – Betemit looks to be the Tigers new everyday 3B taking over for Brandon Inge and Don Kelly. Wilson is an improvement for the Tigers at 3B and has the chance to be a decent fantasy 3B.
Looking at the past 2 seasons for 3B with over 500 PA, Wilson’s OPS (0.830) ranks 7th in the majors. The following players were right above and below him in the rankings, Evan Longoria, David Wright, Michael Young and Aramis Ramirez. OPS is not a perfect stat to state a fantasy player’s value, but it does show how well he has hit recently. Betemit’s fantasy value comes from his ability to hit for average and generate some HR power. He is not a stolen base threat at all.
Betemit has been hitting like an elite 3B, but not getting many plate appearances in KC. I could see him be a 2nd half surprise for the owner that takes a chance on him. He should be owned in all leagues right now. With the lack of 3B talent available, he will be valuable to some team.
Brandon Inge (4% owned ESPN) – Inge is effectively worthless right now. He was optioned to AAA by the Tigers. Short of an injury or another team taking a chance on him, I don’t see a reason to hold him in any league.
Royals IF situation – What a mess for fantasy owners. Betemit was the backup 2B and 3B before the trade. Right now the Royals should/could make some changes at 3B and 2B.
The 3B for the Royals, rookie Mike Moustakas, is 0 for his last 22. He has a triple slash line of 0.190/0.252/0.241 for the season (the type of line that Inge lost his 3B job for having). With Betemit gone, Mike Aviles, who was recently recalled from AAA, will be his replacement. Aviles is a streaky hitter. He walks little and relies heavily on the BABIP fairy for his results. He does have some power and may see some playing time if Moustakas continues to struggle.
Aviles will also be the backup for the 2B, Chris Getz. Getz is actually an OK SB fantasy contributor with 17. The rest of his game is declining (not 1 XBH in his last 35 hits) and the Royals may be looking at bringing up the PCL’s June Player of the Month, Johnny Giavotella. Giavotella currently has a triple slash line of 0.337/0.392/0.483 with 9 SB and 9 HRs in 432 PA in AAA. The word from some sources in KC was that Betemit was moved so Giavotella could be added to the 40 man roster.
Right now it is going to a little tough to figure out what the Royals are going to do with the lack of offensive production from their 2B and 3B. I would bet that they stay with the status quo and keep Moustakas and Getz in the lineup no matter how bad they struggle.
Jeff Keppinger was traded to San Francisco for 2 pitchers yesterday. The trade opened up a position for Jose Alture at 2B in Houston. The following is a look at how the move will effect each player’s fantasy value.
Jeff Keppinger (5% owned in ESPN) – Keppinger was having an OK season with the Astros so far this season. The 31 year old’s main fantasy value was coming from a 0.307 AVG. He has hit for little power 4 HRs and had 0 SB so far this season.
With the Astros, Keppinger generally hit in the 2nd, 3rd or 5th position in the lineup which have better chances of creating RBIs and Runs. He has not started for SF yet (he is not in Wednesday’s lineup, so he may not actually be a regular starter for the team), but he is not likely to get placed in such nice counting stat generating position in their lineup.
Another item to take into account is that the SF offense as a whole has performed worse (3.7 R/G) than Houston’s offense (3.9 R/G) this season.
Even though Keppinger’s ownership rate has almost doubled since the trade, it is likely that his production will be less than it was with Houston. I would not pick him up in any league that he wasn’t already owned in. With possible questions surrounding his playing time, I may look at replacing him with his replacement in Houston.
Jose Altuve (0% owned – ESPN) – Altuve gets the chance to take over as the everyday 2B for the Astros. The 21 year old has some promising minor league numbers with a triple slash line of 0.327/0.386/0.481. He has shown a little power with 15 HRs last season and 10 so far this season.
His main contribution for fantasy owners is ability to attempt SBs with 60 attempts in 2010. He was successful 42 times (70% success rate). So far this season in the minors, he is 24 for 38 or a 63% success rate. Both of those rates are below the break even point of 75% at the major league level. He will probably not get the green light in the majors with only a 63% success rate. With the Astros out of the race this year, I could see them give him the green light for the rest of the season to see how he can perform against MLB talent to get a success rate determined.
Another item going for him is that the Astros have him batting in the number 2 spot in their lineup. He could be a decent source of runs if he is able to stay near the top of the lineup.
Jose should be owned in all NL only leagues because he is a player that should be getting regular playtiming for a while. He may also be an option in deeper leagues if an owner is in need of 2B help.
With the second half of the season beginning this weekend and your league’s trade deadline rapidly approaching, keeper league owners are making the same tough decision that numerous MLB teams are making. Are they buyers or sellers? If in contention for a top finish, keeper league owners are deciding which stud protect to deal off to bolster their roster for a run at the title while the bottom-feeders are licking their chops, ready to give up the world to get their man. It turns into quite the ugly battle in most leagues and is usually a primary source of fantasy angst. But like it our not, it’s reality. Welcome to the dump trade. Read the rest of this entry »
One of the most exciting aspects of fantasy baseball is trading. It can also be the most frustrating as well. We’ve already talked about those stupid early season offers where people are constantly testing your knowledge and your patience — something like his David Freese and Livan Hernandez for my Jose Bautista was a personal favorite. But now we’re two months in, things have settled in for the most part, your waiver wire has been picked clean, and now everyone is trying to improve their squad via the trade. Getting the right deal done is tough enough, but the process to get there can be a tenuous path riddled with both ignorance and annoyance. Today we’re going to go through some do’s and don’ts which may help expedite the process with little fanfare or, at the least, keep you from wanting to choke the life out of a moronic competitor. Read the rest of this entry »
The Detroit Tigers traded INF Scott Sizemore to the Oakland Athletics for LHP David Purcey.
Sizemore, 26, holds a career .315/.392/.487 line in 764 plate appearances at the Triple-A level. The Virginia Commonwealth product has shown pretty good patience (9.4% walk rate) and power (.172 Isolated Power) in the International League. He was never considered a premium prospect — Baseball America ranked him tenth in the Tigers’ system prior to last season — but BA did say he possessed a “compact swing and a knack for putting the barrel on the ball.”
Detroit didn’t give Sizemore much time to translate that swing to major league success, though, making him the starter at second base for brief periods of time over the past two seasons and then abandoning ship after he didn’t hit in small sample sizes. In 237 career major league plate appearances, the righty batter has a .223/.306/.306 triple-slash. Sizemore has managed a 10.5% walk rate, but he has struck out in 28.6% of his at-bats while rarely ripping the ball into the gaps or over the fence (.083 ISO, 3 HR).
On the morning of May 2nd, a fairly toasted Shin-Soo Choo flagged down a police cruiser and asked for directions home. As you know, the rest of his night went downhill from there, and for fantasy owners, the rest of his production has been pretty much downhill from there too.
While Choo isn’t the flashiest of players and he won’t single handedly carry you in a particular category, I wouldn’t blame owners if they figured they could pencil in a .300 batting average, 20 home runs, 20 steals, and 90 RBI on draft day and move on. But since the beginning of May, Choo has batted .236/.325/.361 with one home run and has struck out 29.2% of the time. Whether or not that incident has been the catalyst for such a slide, I don’t know, but Choo either presents a quandary for owners or a potential opportunity for trade mavens, so let’s dig in and see if we can’t unearth the cause.
