We read the tea leaves as best we can throughout Spring Training. Playing time, roles, platoons, etc., have a significant effect on the value of players on our fantasy teams. Despite the most reliable of crystal balls, once the season starts, you finally get to the truth about how players will be used. While the numbers are obviously far too small for us to do much dissecting at this point, the actual roles of players can be telling.

As much as I doubted that Mark Trumbo would see much action at third base, the two games he’s started have both been at the hot corner and it very much seem(ed) like the team was committed to playing him there routinely. In many leagues, he will qualify at third in just three more starts there and with that eligibility, Trumbo will be far more valuable. The burning question is whether his brutal defense will allow him to ever qualify. He’s already made three errors, he was left out of Monday’s starting lineup in favor of Alberto Callaspo, and it’s not likely that he’s going to displace Vernon Wells in the outfield anytime soon. While his defense was an ongoing topic of concern throughout the Spring, it’s certainly going to be under the proverbial microscope going forward. If Mike Scioscia loses any confidence he once had in Trumbo, it might not be long before Trumbo is a part-time player and irrelevant in fantasy circles. If he can somehow stick at third, however – he’s certainly worth owning, assuming you don’t play in an OBP league.

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Reliable middle infielders have always been my white whale. I overvalue them on draft/action day and somehow always end up getting burned. Whether it’s Rickie Weeks‘ wrist or Dustin Pedroia‘s foot or Chase Utley’s knees, I always seem to wind up scrounging for infield help. This year I decided to cast a wide net in our staff league, loading up on various $1 options in addition to keepers Utley and Yunel Escobar.

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In past years, I have posted 20 bold predictions for the upcoming season. Just because our little RotoGraphs contest among authors only required 10 doesn’t mean I was going to stop there! So here are another 10 bold predictions to ridicule me for, or cause your eyes to open in wonder as to how I could be such a brilliant prognosticator. And before you read on, take another gander at my first set of boldies to refresh your memory.

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Juan Francisco is in Atlanta. Paul Janish is headed to Louisville. That means Todd Frazier has made the Cincinnati Reds. He probably deserves more attention than your typical final roster guy.

For example, take a look at how his last two years at Triple-A stack up against popular middle infield sleeper (and 27-year-old) Zack Cozart:
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I didn’t expect to do another post on recent developments at third base until after the season began, but there were several relevant (some more than others) circumstances that could impact any of you doing emergency, 12th-hour drafts the day before the season begins.

I’ve written far too much about Ryan Roberts over the past six months, and part of that is probably because I have a hard time figuring out if I like him in fantasy baseball, and in what kinds of formats he might be useful, if at all. Well, it turns out that Kirk Gibson might be having the same thoughts kicking around in his skull relative to real baseball as he’s given Geoff Blum quite a bit of praise recently and failed to commit to Roberts as his every day third basemen when questioned. I have to believe that Roberts will see the majority of the time at third and maybe this is the way a former “gritty” player rewards a player with “veteran savvy” who is having a decent spring. But if you own Roberts, take notice.

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For those that love to follow industry leagues, the Tout Wars drafts took place this past weekend in New York City.  In addition to their usual rundown, this year introduced a brand new Mixed League and as I was looking over some of the rosters, Josh Donaldson’s name stuck out to me.  He went for $4 to Rotowire’s Derek Van Riper who went with a “stars and scrubs” approach, but considering some of the other names that went for a buck, along with RotoGraphs’ reader Jeff’s question in the Catcher Tiers piece, it seems that Donaldson is on quite a few people’s fantasy radar these days.  Now the question remains, is he worth a look?

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A week from tomorrow, the season officially begins. It will begin and end while I’m likely still asleep as first pitch is 3:10 a.m. Pacific Standard Time, but it will be fun to awaken to statistics that actually matter.

But with still a week to go, things can go right and wrong in a hurry, and while the news below may not be anything new to you, dedicated sports reader, it affects the third base landscape and thus I present it to you with my brief commentary.

Miguel Cabrera has indeed been playing third base despite the consensus opinion that it may very well make Doug Fister have a hissy fit. On Monday, Cabrera decided to try and field a hot grounder off the bat of Hunter Pence not with his glove, but with his face. The video is worth watching if only to see Max Scherzer get a bona fide case of the heebee-jeebees upon seeing the wound.

The news this morning is he has a small fracture under the eye and he received several stitches and will be re-evaluated in a week. At first blush, I can’t see this derailing the third base experiment heading into the season. But, I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again here – he does not qualify at third base yet – and strange things can happen in Spring Training. Another liner off the noodle, and perhaps the Tigers decide to protect their slugger and let him DH the majority of the time? If you draft him as your every day third baseman and he doesn’t gain eligibility until June, you’re probably going to grow weary of having to watch Josh Donaldson man third for two months.

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Tiers seem to unearth the mighty wrath of fantasy baseball enthusiasts, but since we’ve already seen the third base consensus rankings and my general reactions to them thereafter, it’s time to categorize the gentlemen at the five into tidy little compartments of descending desirability.

As you well know, the tiers are not hard and fast — they change (sometimes dramatically) over the course of the first few months of the season. In fact, there’s been movement in these tiers even before I had a chance to publish them! It’s important to remember that these are not keeper tiers — they simply attempt to arrange rough approximations of value in standard 5×5 leagues as you prepare for what might be your final draft(s).

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Monday featured the third base version of the ongoing consensus rankings project and the results actually did reveal a pretty good amount of consensus from our four great minds, but there were some details and departures in opinions worth pointing out.

First of all, and this was teased out in the comments, it’s fairly likely we’re going to see names like Miguel Cabrera, Hanley Ramirez, and Mark Trumbo on the list of the third base eligible come May (for most league formats, probably much earlier). In the case of the former two, it would shake up the rankings in the top five considerably, and there’s a good chance many of you are targeting Cabrera as the overall #1 pick given his new digs in the infield.

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Consensus Ranks: OF, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, and RP and SP.

Tiered Ranks: C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, NL OF, AL SP, NL SP, Holds.

And just because I’ve just finished up watching the Angels in Spring Training, I’ll jump to an absence on this list: Mark Trumbo. He’s not there because he’s not a third baseman yet. In the game I attended, he was the DH. Despite projecting him to be the starting third baseman for the FanGraphs Positional Rankings, I now believe the Angels will mix and match at third base — as they have done before — and that Trumbo won’t be the fulltime third baseman. The team can keep saying that they want to try him there, but if they keep running Alberto Callaspo out there in the spring, their actions speak louder. That means my projection of 461 at-bats, 24 home runs and a .243 batting average could really be dead-on. That’s a crowded team. If that more conservative projection holds true, Trumbo would be worth a little less than Lonnie Chisenhall on my list.

I don’t hate Pablo Sandoval, I just think that a couple of third-basemen will offer more well-rounded lines or more power. Ryan Roberts was held in different esteem by most of us — I felt that even with regression he’d be useful. It’s a little strange to see Daniel Murphy so close to David Freese despite the only Mets fan in the room being sour on his projections. Here’s the thing I may have factored more heavily than the others: Murphy is playing second base again, where he’s blown out his knee two straight years making the turn on double plays. My projections are not heavy on playing time.

The rest of our rankings are pretty similar. Well, we’ll see about Pedro Alvarez.
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