Wouldn’t it be better if every rookie debuted like Mike Trout or Bryce Harper? Major League Baseball would always have this exciting new crop of game-breaking superstars and we fantasy baseball owners would never have to worry about whether a strong debut was just a fluke performance. Unfortunately, that’s not the way it works and when we look at some youngster’s successful rookie campaign, we still have to sift through a variety of things to determine whether he’s worth the attention next year or not. So goes life for those whose interest has been piqued by Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado. On the surface, there’s not much that excites a fantasy owner about a .267-10-52 batting line for a corner infielder, especially coming from someone playing half his games in Coors Field. But considering the 22-year old produced that line after basically making the jump straight from Double-A ball (he played just 18 games at Triple-A to open 2013), he deserves another look as he enters 2014 with the job in-hand. Read the rest of this entry »

David Freese, a fantasy darling from a year ago, failed to replicate his breakout season in both real-life and fantasy terms. On the diamond, he declined offensively and defensively and dropped from a four-win player in 2012 to roughly replacement-level in 2013. And more importantly for fantasy baseball purposes, he essentially took a face-first plunge into the ocean this year with an anchor firmly tied to his waist, as he was barely a top-30 option at third base.

When guys like D.J. LeMahieu, Mike Aviles and merely 350 plate appearances of Aramis Ramirez proved more valuable, it’s abundantly clear that the fantasy production was sub-par. What makes his disappointing performance sting even more for fantasy owners is that he was drafted (on average) ahead of guys like Kyle Seager, Pedro Alvarez, Manny Machado and Matt Carpenter.

Value is paramount in fantasy baseball, and while David Freese wasn’t the worst value of the season — hello, Starlin Castro, Matt Kemp and B.J. Upton — he certainly performed well below expectations this season. His power dropped, his average barely eclipsed .260 and his overall counting statistics were underwhelming. Fantasy owners thought they were getting a high-average third baseman with 20+ homer power, and they received a crappy average and nine home runs. Brutal.

So, let’s not only figure out what happened, but also attempt to determine what this disappointing 2013 season means for David Freese going forward. Because, realistically, if this was merely a blip on the radar, he could be an intriguing sleeper on draft day this upcoming spring.

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When we were divvying up guys for third base week, I selected Brett Lawrie assuming I could take the angle that he was poised to be a post-hype sleeper. When he came up in 2011 as a 21 year old and hit .293 with nine homers and seven steals in just 171 PA, I assumed we were looking at a kid that was going to be a top fantasy option at third base for a decade or so. And that opinion was bolstered by the fact that he also displayed the power/speed combo in the minors. But in the almost 1000 PA he’s had since, Lawrie hasn’t looked anything like he did in 2011. But because I had long ago decided that he was going to be a stud, I assumed I would find evidence of his likely return to stud-dom. Alas, that wasn’t the case.

To find evidence of the rebound I expected to portend, I had to first figure out what it was that Lawrie did so well during his inital call up. Essentially, Lawrie did two things well: he hit the ball in the air a lot and he stole bases efficiently. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s probably hard to overstate just how hyped Chase Headley was after his massive 2012, isn’t it? Were it not for the presence of Miguel Cabrera at the hot corner, Headley would have been the best hitting third baseman that season, thanks to his 31 homers, 115 RBI, and 17 steals. While there was something to be said for the fact that a ridiculous second-half hot streak was unsustainable and that he’d hit just 4 homers the year before, it was hard to see him not continuing to be very good in 2013, especially since the fences were coming in at Petco.

And then… *thwomp.* Headley’s home runs fell from 31 to 13.  His RBI dropped by more than half, to just 50, his batting average fell to a career-low .250, and for the first time in a full season, he stole fewer than 10 bases. Read the rest of this entry »

Will Middlebrooks had a fairly promising future with the Red Sox after being called up in 2012. His 2013 season did not go as planned. A couple of injuries and a demotion caused havoc on his season. Going forward into 2014, his career will be at a cross roads for several reasons.

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Matt Dominguez was the 12th overall pick of the 2007 draft by the then Florida Marlins. He hit well at Single-A in 2008, posting a .382 wOBA and .203 ISO, and that was enough to get him listed among Baseball America’s top 100 prospects at 64 for the 2009 season. Unfortunately, it all went downhill offensively from there. Since then, he failed to exceed a .347 wOBA, which he posted the following season at High-A. He then missed being ranked among the top 100 prospects in 2010 before making a return at 81 in 2011. Now a member of the Houston Astros, we fast forward to 2013, his first full season. Dominguez hit 21 home runs, which was enough to make him the 18th most valuable third baseman, the last one at the position to earn positive value.

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In fantasy, there are certain truths that we as owners have grown to expect and rely upon. Power comes from the corners, speed comes from the middle and the outfield is a nice blend of the two. So when it came to drafting a third baseman, you had a choice — invest heavily for one of the marquee names and get your 30-40 bombs or take a more economical approach and pay less for a 20-25 home run guy and shuffle your remaining bid dollars or picks around to create a more well-balanced but still powerful roster. When Mike Moustakas smacked 20 home runs in his first full season in 2012 and posted a .171 ISO, we were given another economical option, but one who also had the potential to to produce even more. With solid power numbers in the minors, he had some hype to him but considering he was only a 20-home run guy, the price tag wasn’t too high. Until, of course, that power you paid for never arrived. Read the rest of this entry »

Behind only Mike Trout and Bryce Harper in the banner crop of “under-22” phenoms rocketing into the baseball the last few years, Manny Machado still hadn’t fully convinced redraft owners heading into 2013. The SS-turned-3B was not drafted by a starter at the hot corner in standard leagues, coming off the board 189th (at least, in ESPN leagues), making him a mid-teens third baseman in the mid-teens rounds (for those in auction leagues, a $2-4 player). Owners willing to take a chance were rewarded with surplus value, as Machado finished 10th in Zach Sanders’ end-of-season FVAR rankings, posting $11 of sweet, sweet value. But is it rosy skies ahead in 2014 and beyond for the future face of the Orioles franchise?

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Diamondbacks third baseman Martin Prado continues to be a useful fantasy asset. After emerging as a full-time player at age-25, Prado has a solid, but not spectacular option in the infield. There’s no one skill where Prado is outstanding. He consistently hits for a high enough average, provides moderate power and scores a fair amount of runs. He’s mainly been effective up the middle, where his overall numbers play much better. While Prado should retain second base eligibility in most leagues after playing 32 games at the position, his offensive performance was slightly down after a fine walk year. For a player who doesn’t provide elite statistics in any specific area, Prado could be hit harder than others once he experiences age-related decline.

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I have made it very well known that I wasn’t particularly optimistic about Pedro Alvarez’s fantasy value this season. We all figured him for a poor batting average, so he would have to make it up with immense power to truly benefit his owners. And boy did he ever. He upped his home run total and boosted his ISO, fueled up by a slight nudge in his HR/FB ratio. Despite hitting just .233, the power output was enough to make him the ninth most valuable third baseman in fantasy leagues this year.

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