Archive for Streaming Two-Starters

First a look at the running totals through half of week 22:

45-32 record
3.75 ERA
7.5 K/9
2.7 K/BB
1.30 WHIP

Here’s a look at this week’s recs, with team wOBA in parentheses:

Brad Peacock – 0.1% ESPN/1% Y!/7% own, 3% start CBS – v. CLE (.316), v. SEA (.300)

As his ownership numbers will attest, Peacock hasn’t been particularly good this season. And that probably all ties into 4.7 BB/9 along with a fly ball-heavy profile at that home stadium. But Peacock is on a nice little mini-run (1.66 ERA, .187/.287/.293 opponents’ line, 8.7 K/9) over his last four starts. Worth watching will be how Peacock fares against both these teams — well, obviously, but stick with me here — since he faced both of those teams on that four-game stretch (both no decisions). The biggest issue for this righty has been blow-ups, as he’s got three starts where he’s allowed five, seven, and eight earned runs. In 19 of his 26 appearances (some in relief) he’s allowed three or fewer runs. The potential seems to be here for a McHugh-like breakthrough. Read the rest of this entry »

If you use large samples and go looking for pitchers with many different plus pitches by whiff type that aren’t yet fully appreciated by the masses, you’ll get guys that we’ve been talking about all year here: Carlos Carrasco, Garrett Richards, Homer Bailey, Jake Arrieta, and Marcus Stroman, to name a few.

But if you relax the samples a bit — in this case down to thirty pitches thrown per category — you get some names that might be interesting to dynasty leaguers looking to the future, or deep leaguers looking for a sneaky late-season play. Or even mixed leaguers looking for names to stash for next year.

So here are a few interesting pitchers that have at three non-fastball pitches that qualify as ‘good’ by the benchmarks set by Jeff Zimmerman and I.

Read the rest of this entry »

First a look at the running totals through half of week 21:

43-30 record
3.84 ERA
7.5 K/9
2.6 K/BB
1.32 WHIP

Here’s a look at this week’s recs, with team wOBA in parentheses:

Danny Salazar – 30.0% ESPN/49% Y!/55% own, 28% start CBS – v. LAA (.319), @DET (.331)

Salazar’s late-season resurgence will be put to the test, as he faces two top-six offenses this week, both of which have a strong likelihood of making the playoffs. Salazar returned in late July, and has made eight starts since: 5-2, 2.30 ERA, 45-11 K/BB rate (47 innings), and an opponents’ slash of .232/.283/.311. He also made eight starts before being sent out: 1-4, 5.53 ERA, .886 OPS allowed, 10.4 K/9, 3.8 BB/9. Eno Sarris says that Salazar is using his slider more in lieu of a splitter/changeup, and it appears as though his command is better for it. That’ll be worth monitoring down the stretch, because the splitter/change was a solid swing-and-miss offering when it was right. He may slowly bring it back down the stretch. Read the rest of this entry »

First a look at the running totals through half of week 20:

41-29 record
3.91 ERA
7.5 K/9
2.6 K/BB
1.33 WHIP

And since some of you have asked some questions, click here for a link to the spreadsheet I keep with all the numbers.

Also a brief side note: I (redacted) up and typed out a comment and failed to hit ‘post’ when made aware that Jimmy Nelson wouldn’t get two starts last week. I was going to advise owners to go with Jarred Cosart, and I have failed you. Sorry.

Here’s a look at this week’s recs, with team wOBA in parentheses:

Kevin Gausman – 6.2% ESPN/14% Y!/61% own, 34% start CBS – v. MIN (.315), @TBR (.309)

Gausman has basically reached the point where one can see the stuff is there, it’s just time for the results to start matching. At times he’s gotten strikeouts, and at times he’s gotten grounders. He’s struggled with home runs, but since rectified that. The walks are up, the walks are down, and the walks are back up again. But this is a 23-year-old kid with a big fastball, a nasty splitter, and a shot to the the Orioles ace for the foreseeable future. It’s disappointing to see how he’s been handled this year, but consider where the Orioles are and where Gausman is statistically this year. OK, maybe that isn’t fair, but at some point you need them worse than they need you. The Orioles have certainly used Gausman to have the biggest divisional lead in baseball to this point, but it’s been a total team effort that the club arguably could have done with or without him. The Twins offense has been red-hot in August, but was also just shut down by Liam Hendriks. It’s a mixed bag with that bunch. The Rays are exactly in the middle of the road, but have been dismal (.286 wOBA) in August. Read the rest of this entry »

First a look at the running totals through half of week 19:

40-25 record
3.90 ERA
7.5 K/9
2.6 K/BB
1.31 WHIP

And since some of you have asked some questions, click here for a link to the spreadsheet I keep with all the numbers.

Here’s a look at this week’s recs, with team wOBA in parentheses:

Jimmy Nelson – 3.3% ESPN/12% Y!/52% own, 31% start CBS – @SDP (.284), @SFG (.303)

Nelson has only made eight starts, but so far the numbers and peripherals are pretty encouraging. Nelson is fanning 7.2 per nine, which is right around the NL average for starters (7.4). That definitely plays up with his 51.7 percent groundball rate, which comes courtesy of a heavy sinker which he favors most in his repertoire (59.1 percent GB rate on it). It’s not a garden-variety sinker, either. It’s a 93-94 mph bowling ball that he throws about half the time, and is a nice complement to a very good slider (18.7 percent whiff rate). Tack on a couple really nice opposing offenses to be facing — late-season run or not I’m still pushing Padres — and Nelson is a really nice deep sleeper for this week. In his last six starts, he has a 3.82 ERA and .260/.323/.384 opponents’ line. Thank you grounders, right? Read the rest of this entry »

First a look at the running totals through half of week 18:

37-23 record
3.83 ERA
7.4 K/9
2.7 K/BB
1.29 WHIP

Here’s a look at this week’s recs, with team wOBA in parentheses:

Jason Vargas – 18.2% ESPN/27% Y!/72% own, 35% start CBS – @MIN (.312), @TEX (.307)

The entire Vargas-in-KC situation reeks of genius, despite all the grief that GMDM gets. Vargas, when right, is one of the league’s better innings eaters. That alone is probably worth $8 million per year. Add to that his balls-in-play tendencies — mostly fly balls but he’s no Chris Young or Jered Weaver either — paired with the Royals fantastic defense, and that’s a pretty beautiful marriage. Read the rest of this entry »

First a look at the running totals through half of week 17:

33-22 record
3.99 ERA
7.5 K/9
2.7 K/BB
1.31 WHIP

Here’s a look at this week’s recs, with team wOBA in parentheses:

Jon Niese – 11.8% ESPN/22% Y!/68% own, 35% start CBS – @PHI (.296), v. CHC (.304)

A pair of bottom-eight offenses punctuates the week for the better-than-you-realize Niese, who gets by with a fair number of strikeouts and an above-average groundball profile despite only having one pitch above 10 percent SwStr% — and that’s a curve at just 10.7. Read the rest of this entry »

First a look at the running totals through half of week 16:

31-21 record
4.00 ERA
7.5 K/9
2.7 K/BB
1.30 WHIP

Here’s a look at this week’s recs, with team wOBA in parentheses:

Kevin Gausman – 4.4% ESPN/14% Y!/56% own, 31% start CBS – @WAS (.310), v. STL (.305)

As a brief aside, it’s a bit odd to see the Cardinals offense that far down — 21st among MLB in wOBA — but in the end that’s part of what makes Gausman such a favorable option this week. Gausman has done a very nice job for the Orioles this year, especially given how many times he’s been up and down — he’s only made three of his ten starts this year on regular four days rest. Read the rest of this entry »

First a look at the running totals through week 15 (and an apology for being extremely late this week due to a 10-year high school reunion):

30-20 record
3.93 ERA
7.5 K/9
2.7 K/BB
1.31 WHIP

Here’s a look at this week’s recs, with team wOBA in parentheses:

Nathan Eovaldi – 13.7% ESPN/22% Y!/55% own, 28% start CBS – v. WAS (.312), v. PIT (.320)

The Eovaldi rec is a tough one, as he’s gotten absolutely rocked in his last five starts (0-3, 6.39 ERA, and just 14 strikeouts in 31 innings). Read the rest of this entry »

First a look at the running totals through week 14 / the All Star break:

28-18 record
3.98 ERA
7.5 K/9
2.6 K/BB
1.30 WHIP

Here’s a look at this week’s recs, with team wOBA in parentheses:

Jacob deGrom – 31.9% ESPN/31% Y!/59% own, 27% start CBS – @SEA (.299), @MIL (.320)

deGrom has sort of come out of nowhere, as a right-hander one strikeout off a one per inning pace despite never matching that at any minor league level of his four seasons on the Mets farm. Read the rest of this entry »