Archive for Streamers

Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: September 1–7

Credit: Mark Hoffman-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

September 1–7
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI TEX (93) BOS (114) Ryne Nelson (x2), Zac Gallen, Brandon Pfaadt Eduardo Rodriguez Nabil Crismatt
ATH @STL (146) @LAA (125) Luis Morales (x2) Luis Severino, Jeffrey Springs, J.T. Ginn Osvaldo Bido
ATL @CHC (151) SEA (75) Spencer Strider, Chris Sale Joey Wentz, Hurston Waldrep Cal Quantrill, Bryce Elder
BAL @SDP (123) LAD (109) Kyle Bradish, Trevor Rogers Tyler Wells (?), Cade Povich, Dean Kremer, Tomoyuki Sugano
BOS CLE (154) @ARI (91) Garrett Crochet Brayan Bello (x2), Payton Tolle, Lucas Giolito Dustin May
CHC ATL (102) WSN (137) Shota Imanaga, Cade Horton, Matthew Boyd Colin Rea (vWSN) Rea (vATL), Javier Assad
CHW @MIN (109) @DET (84) Aaron Civale (x2), Shane Smith, Martín Pérez Davis Martin (x2), Yoendrys Gómez
CIN TOR (26) NYM (21) Hunter Greene (x2), Nick Lodolo, Andrew Abbott Brady Singer Zack Littell
CLE @BOS (86) @TBR (77) Parker Messick (x2), Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee Logan Allen로건 Slade Cecconi (x2)
COL SFG (68) SDP (84) Chase Dollander, Kyle Freeland, Germán Márquez, McCade Brown, Tanner Gordon
DET NYM (72) CHW (131) Jack Flaherty, Tarik Skubal Charlie Morton (x2) Casey Mize, Chris Paddack
HOU NYY (41) @TEX (96) Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown Luis Garcia (?), Jason Alexander, Cristian Javier, Spencer Arrighetti
KCR LAA (123) MIN (123) Michael Wacha Michael Lorenzen (x2), Noah Cameron Ryan Bergert, Seth Lugo
LAA @KCR (97) ATH (48) Yusei Kikuchi (x2), José Soriano Tyler Anderson, Kyle Hendricks, Caden Dana (?)
LAD @PIT (116) @BAL (123) Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto Emmet Sheehan, Clayton Kershaw
MIA @WSN (148) PHI (91) Eury Pérez, Edward Cabrera, Sandy Alcantara Ryan Gusto (x2), Adam Mazur
MIL PHI (88) @PIT (116) Jacob Misiorowski (x2), Freddy Peralta, Brandon Woodruff Jose Quintana, Quinn Priester
MIN CHW (113) @KCR (97) Joe Ryan Zebby Matthews, Pablo López (?) Bailey Ober (x2), Simeon Woods Richardson, Mick Abel
NYM @DET (84) @CIN (103) Nolan McLean, David Peterson Sean Manaea (x2), Clay Holmes Tylor Megill (?), Kodai Senga
NYY @HOU (151) TOR (47) Max Fried (x2) Will Warren, Carlos Rodón Cam Schlittler, Luis Gil
PHI @MIL (90) @MIA (147) Ranger Suárez, Cristopher Sánchez, Jesús Luzardo Taijuan Walker (x2), Aaron Nola
PIT LAD (92) MIL (67) Paul Skenes Mitch Keller Mike Burrows (x2), Braxton Ashcraft Johan Oviedo
SDP BAL (151) @COL (79) Dylan Cease (vBAL) Yu Darvish, Nestor Cortes, Nick Pivetta, Cease (@COL) Michael King (?)
SEA @TBR (77) @ATL (82) Bryan Woo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert Luis Castillo (x2), Bryce Miller
SFG @COL (79) @STL (146) Logan Webb, Justin Verlander Robbie Ray, Keaton Winn (?) Carson Whisenhunt (x2)
STL ATH (90) SFG (118) Sonny Gray (x2) Michael McGreevy Miles Mikolas, Matthew Liberatore, Andre Pallante
TBR SEA (47) CLE (140) Drew Rasmussen, Ryan Pepiot Shane Baz (vCLE) Baz (vSEA), Adrian Houser, Ian Seymour
TEX @ARI (91) HOU (112) Jacob deGrom Merrill Kelly 켈리 Jacob Latz, Jack Leiter Patrick Corbin (x2)
TOR @CIN (103) @NYY (37) Shane Bieber, Kevin Gausman Chris Bassitt, José Berríos, Eric Lauer 라우어, Max Scherzer
WSN MIA (123) @CHC (151) MacKenzie Gore (x2), Brad Lord Cade Cavalli, Mitchell Parker, Jake Irvin

Ottoneu Drip: Finding Under-rostered Pitchers: August 29, 2025

Credit: Cary Edmondson-Imagn Images

The search for pitching help is never ending. Between injuries and ineffectiveness, fantasy players are always on the lookout for pitchers who are performing well who can provide some reinforcements. If you’re in an Ottoneu head-to-head league, the playoffs begin on Monday. Here are five starters who are rostered in less than 60% of all Ottoneu leagues who might be a benefit to your first-round playoff matchup.

Under-rostered Starters, Last 30 Days
Player Team IP FIP K-BB% Stuff+ Pts/IP Roster%
Justin Verlander SFG 32.1 2.38 20.0% 112 5.28 50.46%
Luis Morales ATH 22.2 3.08 13.6% 106 6.07 43.12%
Ian Seymour TBR 18.2 3.39 27.4% 94 5.53 30.28%
Joey Wentz ATL 33.1 3.18 8.8% 93 5.16 19.57%
Martín Pérez CHW 15.2 1.91 21.1% 86 7.45 11.32%

This isn’t the same Justin Verlander who could carry a fantasy pitching staff for much of his career, but don’t be so quick to write off the seemingly ageless veteran. Since the All-Star break, he has a 3.05 FIP thanks to a miniscule home run rate and a pretty good strikeout-to-walk ratio. His ERA during this same period is more than a run higher than his peripherals would indicate, but because Ottoneu uses FIP-based scoring, it’s actually okay that he’s allowing a few more runs than expected, as long as he’s also preventing home runs too. Next week, he avoids the Giants’ series in Colorado and has a nice matchup against the punchless Cardinals in the pitcher-friendly ballpark in St. Louis.

Luis Morales has very quickly established himself in the big leagues after making his debut on August 1. He entered the season as the A’s top pitching prospect, though he’s pretty raw at this stage of his development. He only signed as an international amateur out of Cuba in January 2023 and had an absolutely meteoric rise through the Athletics’ farm system. He’s looked pretty dominant in the majors already; in his last three starts, he’s allowed just two runs total while striking out 18 in 18 innings. He’s got the skills and stuff to be a frontline pitcher for the A’s as he continues to develop. Next week is a nice two-start week against two pretty weak teams (@STL and @LAA) away from the launching pad in Sacramento.

Ian Seymour only recently made the jump to the starting rotation after making 12 appearances out of the Rays bullpen. Lucas Kelly featured him in his Hot Right Now column yesterday, writing:

Much of [Seymour’s] success can be attributed to his changeup. Its 16.0% swinging strike rate has been above average when compared to pitchers who have thrown at least 150 of them this season. With a small sample, Seymour’s fastball is performing better than you might expect, holding an 11.9% swinging strike rate. The pitch has a below-average Stuff+, Location+, and averages 92 MPH.

Some pretty violent mechanics led to some scouting reservations and put a cap on his potential ceiling as a prospect. His one start was excellent — a shutout affair with eight strikeouts in five innings — granted, it came against the Guardians who are the worst hitting team in baseball. Still, he’s lined up to face Cleveland again in his start next week.

After struggling to establish himself in Detroit to start his career, Joey Wentz has finally found some success in Atlanta, his third organization this year. While the results have been nice (3.43 ERA with the Braves), his peripherals paint a different picture. His FIP in Atlanta is a sparkling 3.03 but that’s almost entirely propped up by a miniscule 4.3% HR/FB rate. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is pretty mediocre and he’s dealt with some command issues in his recent past. You might be able to get away with a good start or two if his home run luck holds, but the foundation doesn’t look very solid.

Martín Pérez also got a passing mention in Kelly’s column yesterday, but I wanted to highlight him here too because he’s actually been surprisingly good for the White Sox this year. He’s running the highest strikeout rate of his career at 22.9% and the biggest difference is an emphasis on his cutter as his primary pitch rather than his sinker. His changeup has continued to be an elite weapon, but that pitch mix change has earned him a lot more whiffs than before. The big red flag is that his contact management peripherals all scream for some regression. He’s allowed a 12.9% barrel rate but just one home run this year and his xERA, xFIP, and SIERA are all more than a full run higher than his FIP. His start against the Yankees on Sunday might help you determine if you’d want to stream him next week for his start against the Tigers in Detroit.


Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: August 25–31

Credit: Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

August 25–31
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI @MIL (72) @LAD (46) Ryne Nelson, Zac Gallen Eduardo Rodriguez (x2), Brandon Pfaadt (x2) Nabil Crismatt
ATH DET (68) TEX (79) Jacob Lopez J.T. Ginn (x2), Jack Perkins, Luis Severino, Jeffrey Springs
ATL @MIA (120) @PHI (37) Hurston Waldrep Spencer Strider (x2), Joey Wentz Chris Sale (?) Cal Quantrill, Bryce Elder
BAL BOS (106) @SFG (182) Trevor Rogers Dean Kremer, Kyle Bradish (@SFG) Tomoyuki Sugano (x2), Bradish (vBOS), Cade Povich
BOS @BAL (119) PIT (136) Garrett Crochet Lucas Giolito (x2), Dustin May Brayan Bello Walker Buehler (x2)
CHC @SFG (182) @COL (51) Matthew Boyd (@SFG), Shota Imanaga Boyd (@COL) Colin Rea, Cade Horton, Jameson Taillon
CHW KCR (64) NYY (21) Aaron Civale Shane Smith (x2), Martín Pérez (x2), Davis Martin, Yoendrys Gómez
CIN @LAD (46) STL (101) Andrew Abbott, Hunter Greene (vSTL) Greene (@LAD), Nick Lodolo, Brady Singer Nick Martinez
CLE TBR (156) SEA (94) Tanner Bibee (x2), Parker Messick, Gavin Williams Slade Cecconi, Logan Allen로건
COL @HOU (146) CHC (74) Tanner Gordon (x2), Chase Dollander, Antonio Senzatela, Kyle Freeland, Austin Gomber
DET @ATH (37) @KCR (95) Tarik Skubal (x2), Jack Flaherty Charlie Morton, Casey Mize, Chris Paddack
HOU COL (128) LAA (88) Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez Cristian Javier Lance McCullers Jr., Spencer Arrighetti Luis Garcia (?)
KCR @CHW (126) DET (97) Michael Wacha Noah Cameron (x2), Michael Lorenzen, Ryan Bergert, Seth Lugo
LAA @TEX (127) @HOU (146) Yusei Kikuchi José Soriano Kyle Hendricks (x2), Tyler Anderson, Victor Mederos
LAD CIN (93) ARI (52) Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto Emmet Sheehan, Shohei Ohtani, Clayton Kershaw
MIA ATL (78) @NYM (72) Edward Cabrera (x2), Sandy Alcantara (x2), Eury Pérez Ryan Gusto, Janson Junk
MIL ARI (50) @TOR (72) Brandon Woodruff Jacob Misiorowski (x2), Freddy Peralta Quinn Priester (x2), Jose Quintana
MIN @TOR (72) SDP (104) Joe Ryan Zebby Matthews Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods Richardson José Ureña
NYM PHI (101) MIA (113) David Peterson Kodai Senga (x2), Sean Manaea (x2), Nolan McLean, Clay Holmes
NYY WSN (91) @CHW (126) Max Fried Cam Schlittler (x2), Luis Gil (x2), Will Warren, Carlos Rodón
PHI @NYM (72) ATL (75) Cristopher Sánchez (x2), Jesús Luzardo (x2), Ranger Suárez Taijuan Walker, Aaron Nola
PIT @STL (133) @BOS (71) Mitch Keller (@STL), Paul Skenes Braxton Ashcraft, Mike Burrows, Keller (@BOS) Johan Oviedo (x2)
SDP @SEA (146) @MIN (124) Dylan Cease, Nick Pivetta JP Sears, Yu Darvish Nestor Cortes
SEA SDP (124) @CLE (161) Bryan Woo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller (@CLE) Miller (vSDP), Luis Castillo
SFG CHC (128) BAL (171) Logan Webb Robbie Ray, Justin Verlander (vBAL) Verlander (vCHC), Carson Whisenhunt
STL PIT (168) @CIN (72) Michael McGreevy (vPIT), Sonny Gray McGreevy (@CIN) Andre Pallante (x2), Miles Mikolas, Matthew Liberatore
TBR @CLE (161) @WSN (133) Drew Rasmussen, Ryan Pepiot Shane Baz (x2), Joe Boyle, Adrian Houser
TEX LAA (78) @ATH (37) Jacob deGrom (x2), Nathan Eovaldi Jack Leiter, Merrill Kelly 켈리 Patrick Corbin
TOR MIN (146) MIL (46) Max Scherzer (vMIN), Shane Bieber, Kevin Gausman Chris Bassitt, José Berríos, Scherzer (vMIL)
WSN @NYY (38) TBR (148) Brad Lord (vTBR) Lord (@NYY), MacKenzie Gore, Cade Cavalli, Mitchell Parker, Jake Irvin

Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: August 18–24

Credit: Peter Aiken-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

August 18–24
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI CLE (156) CIN (131) Zac Gallen (x2) Eduardo Rodriguez, Brandon Pfaadt, Ryne Nelson Casey Kelly 켈리 (?)
ATH @MIN (124) @SEA (149) Jacob Lopez (x2), Jeffrey Springs J.T. Ginn, Jack Perkins Luis Morales
ATL CHW (140) NYM (80) Spencer Strider (x2) Hurston Waldrep, Joey Wentz Bryce Elder, Erick Fedde 페디
BAL @BOS (58) HOU (91) Trevor Rogers (x2) Tomoyuki Sugano, Kyle Bradish (?), Cade Povich, Dean Kremer
BOS BAL (152) @NYY (81) Garrett Crochet Dustin May (vBAL) Walker Buehler, Lucas Giolito, Brayan Bello, May (@NYY)
CHC MIL (54) @LAA (91) Matthew Boyd, Shota Imanaga Cade Horton (x2), Jameson Taillon (?) Colin Rea, Javier Assad
CHW @ATL (96) MIN (128) Shane Smith, Aaron Civale, Sean Burke, Davis Martin Yoendrys Gómez (x2)
CIN @LAA (91) @ARI (52) Hunter Greene Brady Singer, Andrew Abbott Nick Martinez, Nick Lodolo (?) Zack Littell
CLE @ARI (52) @TEX (159) Gavin Williams (@TEX) Williams (@ARI), Tanner Bibee, Slade Cecconi Joey Cantillo, Logan Allen로건
COL LAD (44) @PIT (126) Kyle Freeland Austin Gomber (x2), Bradley Blalock (x2), Tanner Gordon, Antonio Senzatela
DET HOU (92) KCR (118) Jack Flaherty (x2), Tarik Skubal Casey Mize Charlie Morton, Chris Paddack
HOU @DET (102) @BAL (137) Hunter Brown (x2), Framber Valdez Cristian Javier Spencer Arrighetti (x2), Lance McCullers Jr. (?)
KCR TEX (144) @DET (102) Michael Wacha (x2), Noah Cameron Seth Lugo (x2) Michael Lorenzen, Ryan Bergert
LAA CIN (100) CHC (82) Yusei Kikuchi José Soriano Victor Mederos (x2), Kyle Hendricks, Tyler Anderson
LAD @COL (39) @SDP (94) Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto (@SDP) Yamamoto (@COL) Shohei Ohtani, Clayton Kershaw Emmet Sheehan
MIA STL (143) TOR (44) Eury Pérez (vSTL) Edward Cabrera, Sandy Alcantara, Pérez (vTOR) Cal Quantrill, Janson Junk
MIL @CHC (147) SFG (117) Freddy Peralta (x2), Brandon Woodruff (x2), Jacob Misiorowski Quinn Priester Jose Quintana DL Hall
MIN ATH (61) @CHW (128) Joe Ryan (x2) Zebby Matthews Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods Richardson José Ureña
NYM @WSN (140) @ATL (96) David Peterson (@WSN), Kodai Senga, Sean Manaea Clay Holmes, Peterson (@ATL) Nolan McLean
NYY @TBR (95) BOS (72) Max Fried Carlos Rodón (x2), Luis Gil, Will Warren Cam Schlittler
PHI SEA (75) WSN (100) Ranger Suárez (x2), Cristopher Sánchez, Zack Wheeler Jesús Luzardo Aaron Nola
PIT TOR (50) COL (119) Paul Skenes (x2) Mike Burrows Mitch Keller Braxton Ashcraft, Andrew Heaney
SDP SFG (133) LAD (82) Nick Pivetta (x2), Dylan Cease Nestor Cortes (vSFG), Yu Darvish Cortes (vLAD) Randy Vásquez
SEA @PHI (70) ATH (82) Logan Gilbert (x2), Luis Castillo, Bryan Woo, George Kirby Bryce Miller (?)
SFG @SDP (94) @MIL (73) Logan Webb Landen Roupp Robbie Ray (x2), Justin Verlander Kai-Wei Teng (x2)
STL @MIA (99) @TBR (95) Sonny Gray Michael McGreevy Matthew Liberatore (x2), Andre Pallante, Miles Mikolas
TBR NYY (62) STL (125) Shane Baz, Drew Rasmussen, Adrian Houser, Ryan Pepiot Joe Boyle
TEX @KCR (114) CLE (141) Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi Jack Leiter (x2), Merrill Kelly 켈리 (x2) Patrick Corbin
TOR @PIT (126) @MIA (99) Kevin Gausman Max Scherzer Chris Bassitt, Shane Bieber (?), Eric Lauer 라우어, José Berríos
WSN NYM (84) @PHI (70) Brad Lord, MacKenzie Gore Cade Cavalli Jake Irvin (x2), Mitchell Parker

Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: August 11–17

Credit: Eakin Howard-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

August 11–17
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI @TEX (132) @COL (49) Zac Gallen Ryne Nelson (@TEX) Anthony DeSclafani (x2), Eduardo Rodriguez, Brandon Pfaadt, Nelson (@COL)
ATH TBR (122) LAA (82) Jeffrey Springs (x2), Jacob Lopez, J.T. Ginn, Luis Severino Jack Perkins
ATL @NYM (140) @CLE (130) Spencer Strider (x2) Joey Wentz Carlos Carrasco, Bryce Elder, Erick Fedde 페디
BAL SEA (104) @HOU (111) Trevor Rogers Dean Kremer (x2), Tomoyuki Sugano, Cade Povich Brandon Young
BOS @HOU (111) MIA (58) Garrett Crochet (x2) Lucas Giolito Dustin May, Walker Buehler, Brayan Bello
CHC @TOR (41) PIT (146) Matthew Boyd, Shota Imanaga Cade Horton (vPIT) Horton (@TOR), Jameson Taillon (?) Colin Rea
CHW DET (69) @KCR (122) Shane Smith, Aaron Civale, Sean Burke, Davis Martin Mike Vasil (F)
CIN PHI (50) MIL (12) Andrew Abbott (x2), Chase Burns Brady Singer, Hunter Greene (?) Zack Littell
CLE MIA (83) ATL (112) Gavin Williams Tanner Bibee, Joey Cantillo Logan Allen로건 (x2), Slade Cecconi
COL @STL (146) ARI (76) Kyle Freeland (@STL) Anthony Molina (x2), Austin Gomber, Bradley Blalock, Tanner Gordon
DET @CHW (94) @MIN (99) Jack Flaherty (x2), Tarik Skubal Charlie Morton, Casey Mize Chris Paddack (x2)
HOU BOS (75) BAL (106) Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez Cristian Javier (?), Spencer Arrighetti Colton Gordon
KCR WSN (135) CHW (102) Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, Noah Cameron Bailey Falter (x2), Michael Lorenzen
LAA LAD (66) @ATH (23) José Soriano (x2), Yusei Kikuchi Tyler Anderson, Kyle Henderson, Jack Kochanowicz
LAD @LAA (113) SDP (90) Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto Emmet Sheehan, Shohei Ohtani, Clayton Kershaw
MIA @CLE (130) @BOS (47) Eury Pérez, Edward Cabrera Janson Junk (@CLE), Sandy Alcantara Cal Quantrill, Junk (@BOS)
MIL PIT (122) @CIN (95) Freddy Peralta (x2), Brandon Woodruff, Jacob Misiorowski Quinn Priester Jose Quintana
MIN @NYY (85) DET (86) Joe Ryan Zebby Matthews (x2) Bailey Ober, José Ureña, Simeon Woods Richardson (?) Pierson Ohl
NYM ATL (115) SEA (102) Clay Holmes (vATL), David Peterson, Sean Manaea Kodai Senga, Holmes (vSEA) Frankie Montas
NYY MIN (101) @STL (146) Max Fried Will Warren (x2), Carlos Rodón, Luis Gil Cam Schlittler
PHI @CIN (95) @WSN (153) Ranger Suárez (x2), Cristopher Sánchez (x2), Jesús Luzardo, Zack Wheeler Aaron Nola (?)
PIT @MIL (84) @CHC (122) Paul Skenes Mitch Keller Braxton Ashcraft, Mike Burrows Andrew Heaney (x2)
SDP @SFG (162) @LAD (59) Nick Pivetta Yu Darvish (@SFG), Michael King, Dylan Cease Nestor Cortes, Darvish (@LAD)
SEA @BAL (66) @NYM (140) George Kirby (x2), Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo, Bryan Woo Logan Evans
SFG SDP (122) TBR (180) Logan Webb (x2) Robbie Ray, Justin Verlander Carson Whisenhunt Kai-Wei Teng
STL COL (142) NYY (108) Sonny Gray Matthew Liberatore, Michael McGreevy Miles Mikolas (x2), Andre Pallante
TBR @ATH (23) @SFG (162) Ryan Pepiot (@SFG) Pepiot (@ATH), Shane Baz, Drew Rasmussen, Joe Boyle, Adrian Houser
TEX ARI (98) @TOR (41) Nathan Eovaldi (x2), Merrill Kelly 켈리, Jacob deGrom Jack Leiter Patrick Corbin
TOR CHC (84) TEX (126) Kevin Gausman Chris Bassitt, Eric Lauer 라우어 José Berríos (x2), Max Scherzer
WSN @KCR (122) PHI (86) Cade Cavalli (@KCR), Brad Lord, MacKenzie Gore Mitchell Parker (x2), Jake Irvin

Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: August 4–10

Credit: Bob DeChiara-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

August 4–10
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI SDP (106) COL (125) Zac Gallen Brandon Pfaadt (x2), Ryne Nelson, Eduardo Rodriguez Anthony DeSclafani (?)
ATH @WSN (133) @BAL (64) J.T. Ginn Jeffrey Springs, Jacob Lopez, Luis Severino Osvaldo Bido
ATL MIL (69) MIA (93) Spencer Strider Joey Wentz (x2) Erick Fedde 페디 (x2), Carlos Carrasco, Bryce Elder, Hurston Waldrep (?)
BAL @PHI (44) ATH (72) Dean Kremer, Trevor Rogers Brandon Young (x2), Tomoyuki Sugano, Cade Povich (?)
BOS KCR (86) @SDP (92) Garrett Crochet (x2) Brayan Bello, Lucas Giolito Dustin May, Walker Buehler
CHC CIN (113) @STL (133) Matthew Boyd Michael Soroka (x2), Shota Imanaga, Cade Horton Colin Rea
CHW @SEA (174) CLE (82) Davis Martin (x2), Shane Smith, Aaron Civale, Sean Burke Jonathan Cannon
CIN @CHC (89) @PIT (137) Andrew Abbott, Chase Burns, Nick Lodolo (@PIT) Lodolo (@CHC), Brady Singer Zack Littell (@PIT) Littell (@CHC)
CLE @NYM (133) @CHW (80) Slade Cecconi (x2), Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee Logan Allen로건, Joey Cantillo
COL TOR (37) @ARI (114) Tanner Gordon (x2), Kyle Freeland, Antonio Senzatela, Austin Gomber, Bradley Blalock
DET MIN (112) LAA (101) Casey Mize (vMIN), Tarik Skubal Chris Paddack, Jack Flaherty, Mize (vLAA) Charlie Morton
HOU @MIA (127) @NYY (75) Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez Spencer Arrighetti (?) Jason Alexander (x2), Colton Gordon
KCR @BOS (60) @MIN (79) Seth Lugo Michael Wacha, Noah Cameron Bailey Falter (x2) Ryan Bergert (?)
LAA TBR (109) @DET (121) Yusei Kikuchi (x2), José Soriano Tyler Anderson, Kyle Hendricks, Jack Kochanowicz
LAD STL (126) TOR (59) Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto Emmet Sheehan, Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell Clayton Kershaw
MIA HOU (88) @ATL (88) Eury Pérez Sandy Alcantara (x2), Edward Cabrera Cal Quantrill (x2), Ryan Gusto, Janson Junk
MIL @ATL (88) NYM (113) Freddy Peralta, Brandon Woodruff, Jacob Misiorowski Quinn Priester (x2) Jose Quintana
MIN @DET (121) KCR (100) Joe Ryan Zebby Matthews, Mick Abel, Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods Richardson
NYM CLE (111) @MIL (105) Sean Manaea (x2), David Peterson Clay Holmes, Kodai Senga Frankie Montas
NYY @TEX (131) HOU (82) Max Fried (x2) Will Warren, Carlos Rodón Marcus Stroman, Luis Gil
PHI BAL (89) @TEX (131) Ranger Suárez, Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sánchez, Jesús Luzardo (@TEX) Luzardo (vBAL) Taijuan Walker
PIT SFG (111) CIN (98) Paul Skenes Mike Burrows (x2), Mitch Keller Carmen Mlodzinski (x2), Andrew Heaney
SDP @ARI (114) BOS (96) Nick Pivetta Yu Darvish, Dylan Cease JP Sears (x2) Randy Vásquez
SEA CHW (113) TBR (150) Bryan Woo (x2), George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo Logan Evans
SFG @PIT (137) WSN (150) Logan Webb Justin Verlander (x2), Robbie Ray Carson Whisenhunt Spencer Bivens (?)
STL @LAD (59) CHC (70) Sonny Gray (x2) Miles Mikolas, Matthew Liberatore, Michael McGreevy, Andre Pallante
TBR @LAA (81) @SEA (174) Adrian Houser (x2), Ryan Pepiot, Shane Baz, Drew Rasmussen, Joe Boyle
TEX NYY (69) PHI (71) Jacob deGrom Nathan Eovaldi, Merrill Kelly 켈리 Jack Leiter Patrick Corbin
TOR @COL (52) @LAD (59) Kevin Gausman Max Scherzer, Chris Bassitt Eric Lauer 라우어 (x2), José Berríos
WSN ATH (59) @SFG (145) MacKenzie Gore (@SFG) Gore (vATH), Brad Lord Mitchell Parker, Jake Irvin Cade Cavalli (?)

Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: July 28–August 3

Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

Reminder: the trade deadline falls in the middle of next week. Be prepared for some pitching chaos as teams swap starters and realign their rotations following the flurry of activity at the deadline.

Also, the August 2 game between the Braves and Reds is the MLB Speedway Classic. I honestly have no idea how the temporary field constructed at Bristol Motor Speedway will play. These are the proposed field dimensions: 330 feet down each of the foul lines, 400 feet to center field, 375 feet to the right-field alley and 384 feet to the left-field alley. I’d probably avoid starting either pitcher in that game which creates a difficult choice for what to do about Chase Burns.

July 28–August 3
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI @DET (136) @ATH (54) Brandon Pfaadt, Ryne Nelson, Merrill Kelly 켈리, Zac Gallen Eduardo Rodriguez (x2)
ATH SEA (8) ARI (17) JP Sears (x2) Luis Severino, Jeffrey Springs, Jacob Lopez, J.T. Ginn
ATL @KCR (135) @CIN (59) Spencer Strider Grant Holmes Dane Dunning (F), Joey Wentz, Bryce Elder
BAL TOR (109) @CHC (102) Dean Kremer, Trevor Rogers Zach Eflin (x2), Charlie Morton, Tomoyuki Sugano Brandon Young (?)
BOS @MIN (79) HOU (78) Garrett Crochet Lucas Giolito Brayan Bello, Walker Buehler Richard Fitts (x2)
CHC @MIN (79) BAL (178) Matthew Boyd (x2), Shota Imanaga Cade Horton Colin Rea, Ben Brown
CHW PHI (114) @LAA (56) Adrian Houser Jonathan Cannon Davis Martin (x2), Aaron Civale, Sean Burke
CIN LAD (70) ATL (70) Andrew Abbott Nick Lodolo Chase Burns (x2), Nick Martinez, Brady Singer
CLE COL (124) MIN (101) Slade Cecconi (x2), Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee Logan Allen로건, Joey Cantillo
COL @CLE (133) PIT (129) Kyle Freeland Bradley Blalock, Tanner Gordon, Antonio Senzatela, Austin Gomber
DET ARI (69) @PHI (79) Tarik Skubal Casey Mize (x2), Reese Olson, Jack Flaherty Troy Melton
HOU WSN (125) @BOS (92) Framber Valdez (x2), Hunter Brown Brandon Walter Colton Gordon Jason Alexander
KCR ATL (100) @TOR (45) Seth Lugo, Kris Bubic Michael Wacha Noah Cameron Rich Hill (x2)
LAA TEX (102) CHW (93) Yusei Kikuchi José Soriano Tyler Anderson Jake Eder (F), Kyle Hendricks
LAD @CIN (59) @TBR (85) Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow Shohei Ohtani Blake Snell (?), Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May
MIA @STL (114) NYY (87) Eury Pérez Edward Cabrera (x2), Sandy Alcantara Cal Quantrill, Janson Junk
MIL CHC (59) @WSN (146) Freddy Peralta, Brandon Woodruff Jacob Misiorowski Quinn Priester, Jose Quintana Nestor Cortes (?)
MIN BOS (135) @CLE (133) Joe Ryan Zebby Matthews Simeon Woods Richardson (x2), Chris Paddack, Bailey Ober (?)
NYM @SDP (118) SFG (112) Kodai Senga Sean Manaea, Clay Holmes, David Peterson Frankie Montas (x2)
NYY TBR (126) @MIA (124) Max Fried (x2), Carlos Rodón Will Warren Luis Gil (?), Marcus Stroman, Cam Schlittler
PHI @CHW (100) DET (116) Cristopher Sánchez (x2), Jesús Luzardo, Ranger Suárez, Zack Wheeler Taijuan Walker
PIT @SFG (137) @COL (41) Mitch Keller (@SFG), Paul Skenes Bailey Falter, Mike Burrows, Keller (@COL) Andrew Heaney
SDP NYM (121) STL (116) Nick Pivetta Dylan Cease (x2), Yu Darvish Stephen Kolek Randy Vásquez
SEA @ATH (54) TEX (146) Bryan Woo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo (vTEX) Castillo (@ATH) Logan Evans (x2)
SFG PIT (185) @NYM (139) Landen Roupp (x2), Logan Webb Justin Verlander, Robbie Ray Carson Seymour (?)
STL MIA (107) @SDP (118) Sonny Gray Matthew Liberatore, Michael McGreevy Andre Pallante (x2), Miles Mikolas
TBR @NYY (87) LAD (80) Ryan Pepiot, Shane Baz Drew Rasmussen (x2), Joe Boyle (x2) Zack Littell
TEX @LAA (56) @SEA (121) Jacob deGrom (x2), Nathan Eovaldi Jack Leiter Patrick Corbin (x2), Kumar Rocker
TOR @BAL (146) KCR (112) Kevin Gausman Chris Bassitt (x2), Eric Lauer 라우어 José Berríos, Max Scherzer Easton Lucas
WSN @HOU (116) MIL (63) MacKenzie Gore Michael Soroka Brad Lord (x2), Mitchell Parker, Jake Irvin

Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: July 18–27

Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

Note: due to the All-Star break, the Week 17 Ottoneu matchup runs for 10 days from July 18–27. If your head-to-head league has a games started cap, the number of starts doesn’t change even with the additional days. That means you’ll have a lot more starts to pick from to hit your cap — you’ll want to be extra judicious when picking your starters this week. I’ve separated this weekend’s games from next week’s into two tables below for a little more clarity.

July 18–20
Team Series 1 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI STL (129) Merrill Kelly 켈리 Brandon Pfaadt, Ryne Nelson
ATH @CLE (167) JP Sears, Luis Severino Jeffrey Springs
ATL NYY (42) Spencer Strider Grant Holmes Joey Wentz
BAL @TBR (81) Charlie Morton, Trevor Rogers Dean Kremer
BOS @CHC (90) Garrett Crochet Lucas Giolito Brayan Bello
CHC BOS (75) Shota Imanaga, Matthew Boyd Colin Rea
CHW @PIT (146) Adrian Houser Jonathan Cannon, Aaron Civale
CIN @NYM (104) Andrew Abbott Nick Lodolo Nick Martinez
CLE ATH (87) Slade Cecconi, Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams
COL MIN (94) Kyle Freeland, Germán Márquez Antonio Senzatela
DET @TEX (100) Tarik Skubal Reese Olson Keider Montero
HOU @SEA (108) Framber Valdez Brandon Walter, Lance McCullers Jr.
KCR @MIA (123) Seth Lugo, Kris Bubic Michael Wacha
LAA @PHI (52) José Soriano, Yusei Kikuchi Tyler Anderson
LAD MIL (59) Tyler Glasnow Emmet Sheehan, Clayton Kershaw
MIA KCR (105) Sandy Alcantara Janson Junk Cal Quantrill
MIL @LAD (93) Freddy Peralta Quinn Priester, Jose Quintana
MIN @COL (80) Joe Ryan Chris Paddack, Zebby Matthews (?)
NYM CIN (122) Sean Manaea, Clay Holmes, David Peterson
NYY @ATL (103) Max Fried Will Warren, Carlos Rodón
PHI LAA (84) Jesús Luzardo, Ranger Suárez Taijuan Walker
PIT CHW (155) Bailey Falter, Mike Burrows, Andrew Heaney
SDP @WSN (128) Dylan Cease, Nick Pivetta Yu Darvish
SEA HOU (79) Logan Gilbert Luis Castillo Logan Evans
SFG @TOR (52) Logan Webb Robbie Ray Justin Verlander
STL @ARI (78) Sonny Gray Andre Pallante, Miles Mikolas
TBR BAL (113) Ryan Pepiot Taj Bradley, Zack Littell
TEX DET (67) Nathan Eovaldi Patrick Corbin, Kumar Rocker
TOR SFG (142) Chris Bassitt, José Berríos Eric Lauer 라우어
WSN SDP (144) MacKenzie Gore Michael Soroka Mitchell Parker
July 21–27
Team Series 2 Matchup Series 3 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI HOU (67) @PIT (146) Ryne Nelson, Merrill Kelly, Zac Gallen (@PIT) Gallen (vHOU) Eduardo Rodriguez, Brandon Pfaadt
ATH @TEX (100) @HOU (77) JP Sears Jacob Lopez (x2), J.T. Ginn (?), Luis Severino, Jeffrey Springs
ATL SFG (138) @TEX (100) Spencer Strider Bryce Elder, Grant Holmes Davis Daniel, Joey Wentz
BAL @CLE (167) COL (155) Charlie Morton, Dean Kremer, Trevor Rogers Tomoyuki Sugano (x2), Zach Eflin (?)
BOS @PHI (52) LAD (105) Garrett Crochet Lucas Giolito, Brayan Bello Richard Fitts (x2), Walker Buehler
CHC KCR (126) @CHW (141) Shota Imanaga, Matthew Boyd Cade Horton (x2) Colin Rea Chris Flexen 플렉센
CHW @TBR (81) CHC (40) Shane Smith, Sean Burke, Adrian Houser Jonathan Cannon, Davis Martin (?), Aaron Civale
CIN @WSN (128) TBR (97) Nick Lodolo, Andrew Abbott Brady Singer (x2), Chase Burns Nick Martinez
CLE BAL (149) @KCR (128) Joey Cantillo (x2), Slade Cecconi, Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams Logan Allen로건 (x2)
COL STL (91) @BAL (124) Kyle Freeland, Germán Márquez Austin Gomber, Bradley Blalock, Antonio Senzatela
DET @PIT (146) TOR (112) Casey Mize (@PIT), Reese Olson, Tarik Skubal Jack Flaherty (x2), Mize (vTOR) Keider Montero
HOU @ARI (78) ATH (79) Hunter Brown (x2), Framber Valdez Colton Gordon (x2), Brandon Walter, Lance McCullers Jr.
KCR @CHC (90) CLE (148) Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Kris Bubic Noah Cameron (vCLE) Cameron (@CHC) Rich Hill (?!)
LAA @NYM (104) SEA (17) José Soriano, Yusei Kikuchi Kyle Hendricks (x2), Carson Fulmer (x2), Tyler Anderson
LAD MIN (117) @BOS (24) Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow Shohei Ohtani Dustin May, Emmet Sheehan, Clayton Kershaw
MIA SDP (136) @MIL (104) Eury Pérez (x2) Sandy Alcantara Edward Cabrera, Janson Junk Cal Quantrill
MIL @SEA (108) MIA (79) Brandon Woodruff, Jacob Misiorowski, Freddy Peralta Quinn Priester, Nestor Cortes (?), Jose Quintana
MIN @LAD (93) WSN (106) Joe Ryan Simeon Woods Richardson (x2), David Festa, Chris Paddack Bailey Ober (?)
NYM LAA (106) @SFG (168) Kodai Senga (x2), David Peterson Sean Manaea, Clay Holmes Frankie Montas
NYY @TOR (52) PHI (87) Max Fried Will Warren, Carlos Rodón Marcus Stroman (x2), Cam Schlittler
PHI BOS (50) @NYY (38) Zack Wheeler (x2), Cristopher Sánchez Jesús Luzardo, Ranger Suárez Taijuan Walker
PIT DET (75) ARI (66) Paul Skenes Mitch Keller (x2) Bailey Falter, Mike Burrows, Andrew Heaney
SDP @MIA (123) @STL (128) Dylan Cease, Nick Pivetta Yu Darvish Stephen Kolek (x2) Randy Vásquez (x2)
SEA MIL (86) @LAA (79) Bryan Woo (x2), George Kirby (x2), Logan Gilbert Luis Castillo Logan Evans
SFG @ATL (103) NYM (113) Robbie Ray, Logan Webb Landen Roupp (x2), Hayden Birdsong Justin Verlander
STL @COL (80) SDP (159) Sonny Gray, Matthew Liberatore (vSDP) Liberatore (@COL), Miles Mikolas, Erick Fedde 페디 (vSDP) Fedde (@COL), Andre Pallante
TBR CHW (128) @CIN (86) Shane Baz (vCHW), Drew Rasmussen Ryan Pepiot, Baz (@CIN) Taj Bradley, Zack Littell
TEX ATH (69) ATL (96) Jacob deGrom (x2), Nathan Eovaldi Jack Leiter, Patrick Corbin, Kumar Rocker
TOR NYY (46) @DET (94) Kevin Gausman (@DET) Gausman (vNYY) Max Scherzer (x2), Chris Bassitt, Eric Lauer, José Berríos
WSN CIN (110) @MIN (101) MacKenzie Gore Michael Soroka Jake Irvin (x2), Mitchell Parker Andry Lara (?)

Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: July 7–13

Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

July 7–13
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI @SDP (134) @LAA (73) Merrill Kelly 켈리 (x2) Eduardo Rodriguez, Ryne Nelson, Zac Gallen Brandon Pfaadt (x2)
ATH ATL (95) TOR (86) Jeffrey Springs (x2), Mitch Spence, JP Sears, Luis Severino, Jacob Lopez
ATL @ATH (81) @STL (123) Spencer Strider Grant Holmes Bryce Elder, Hurston Waldrep (?) Didier Fuentes (x2)
BAL NYM (120) MIA (100) Charlie Morton Tomoyuki Sugano, Dean Kremer, Trevor Rogers Brandon Young (x2)
BOS COL (149) TBR (57) Garrett Crochet Brayan Bello, Lucas Giolito Richard Fitts (vCOL), Walker Buehler Hunter Dobbins (?), Fitts (vTBR)
CHC @MIN (107) @NYY (49) Shota Imanaga (@MIN) Matthew Boyd, Imanaga (@NYY) Cade Horton, Colin Rea, Jameson Taillon
CHW TOR (97) CLE (143) Adrian Houser, Shane Smith, Sean Burke (vCLE) Burke (vTOR), Jonathan Cannon Aaron Civale (x2)
CIN MIA (49) COL (130) Andrew Abbott Nick Martinez (x2), Nick Lodolo, Brady Singer (vCOL) Singer (vMIA), Chase Burns
CLE @HOU (102) @CHW (141) Gavin Williams Tanner Bibee (@CHW) Bibee (@HOU), Joey Cantillo (x2), Slade Cecconi, Logan Allen로건
COL @BOS (50) @CIN (86) Kyle Freeland, Germán Márquez Austin Gomber, Ryan Feltner (?), Antonio Senzatela, Chase Dollander
DET TBR (89) SEA (76) Tarik Skubal Jack Flaherty (x2), Reese Olson, Casey Mize Dietrich Enns 엔스
HOU CLE (164) TEX (148) Hunter Brown (x2), Framber Valdez Brandon Walter, Lance McCullers Jr. Colton Gordon
KCR PIT (129) NYM (100) Seth Lugo, Kris Bubic Noah Cameron (vPIT), Michael Wacha Michael Lorenzen, Cameron (vNYM)
LAA TEX (121) ARI (27) Yusei Kikuchi (vTEX), José Soriano (vTEX) Kikuchi (vARI), Soriano (vARI) Kyle Hendricks, Jack Kochanowicz, Tyler Anderson
LAD @MIL (86) @SFG (164) Yoshinobu Yamamoto Clayton Kershaw, Tyler Glasnow (?), Shohei Ohtani (?) Dustin May, Ben Casparius (F)
MIA @CIN (86) @BAL (104) Eury Pérez (x2) Janson Junk (x2), Edward Cabrera Sandy Alcantara Cal Quantrill
MIL LAD (68) WSN (72) Freddy Peralta (x2), Jacob Misiorowski, Chad Patrick Jose Quintana, Quinn Priester, Brandon Woodruff
MIN CHC (42) PIT (134) Joe Ryan Simeon Woods Richardson (x2), David Festa, Chris Paddack Connor Gillispie
NYM @BAL (104) @KCR (164) Clay Holmes (@KCR) Holmes (@BAL), David Peterson Frankie Montas, Sean Manaea (?) Blade Tidwell
NYY SEA (45) CHC (29) Max Fried Carlos Rodón Will Warren (x2), Clarke Schmidt Marcus Stroman
PHI @SFG (164) @SDP (134) Cristopher Sánchez (x2), Jesús Luzardo, Ranger Suárez, Zack Wheeler Mick Abel
PIT @KCR (164) @MIN (107) Paul Skenes (x2), Mitch Keller Mike Burrows Bailey Falter, Andrew Heaney
SDP ARI (58) PHI (118) Dylan Cease (x2), Nick Pivetta (vPHI) Pivetta (vARI) Stephen Kolek, Yu Darvish (?) Randy Vásquez
SEA @NYY (49) @DET (71) Logan Gilbert (x2), Bryan Woo, George Kirby Luis Castillo Logan Evans
SFG PHI (136) LAD (102) Robbie Ray, Logan Webb Landen Roupp (vPHI) Justin Verlander, Hayden Birdsong, Roupp (vLAD)
STL WSN (100) ATL (143) Sonny Gray, Matthew Liberatore Andre Pallante (x2), Miles Mikolas, Erick Fedde 페디
TBR @DET (71) @BOS (50) Shane Baz (x2), Ryan Pepiot (x2), Drew Rasmussen Taj Bradley Zack Littell
TEX @LAA (73) @HOU (102) Jacob deGrom (x2), Nathan Eovaldi (x2) Kumar Rocker, Jack Leiter Patrick Corbin
TOR @CHW (141) @ATH (81) José Berríos (@CHW), Chris Bassitt Kevin Gausman Bowden Francis, Max Scherzer, Berríos (@ATH)
WSN @STL (123) @MIL (86) MacKenzie Gore Jake Irvin, Michael Soroka, Mitchell Parker Trevor Williams (x2)

Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: June 30–July 6

Credit: Brad Rempel-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

June 30–July 6
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI SFG (121) KCR (141) Merrill Kelly 켈리 Ryne Nelson (x2), Zac Gallen (x2), Eduardo Rodriguez Brandon Pfaadt
ATH @TBR (29) SFG (87) Jeffrey Springs, Mitch Spence, JP Sears, Luis Severino Jacob Lopez (x2)
ATL LAA (91) BAL (146) Spencer Schwellenbach, Spencer Strider Grant Holmes (vBAL) Holmes (vLAA), Bryce Elder, Didier Fuentes
BAL @TEX (131) @ATL (112) Charlie Morton Trevor Rogers (x2), Cade Povich (?), Tomoyuki Sugano, Zach Eflin
BOS CIN (64) @WSN (119) Garrett Crochet (x2) Lucas Giolito Walker Buehler Richard Fitts, Brayan Bello
CHC CLE (166) STL (123) Matthew Boyd (x2), Shota Imanaga Cade Horton Colin Rea, Jameson Taillon
CHW @LAD (34) @COL (51) Mike Vasil (F), Sean Burke, Aaron Civale, Adrian Houser, Jonathan Cannon (?), Shane Smith
CIN @BOS (94) @PHI (51) Chase Burns (@BOS), Andrew Abbott Burns (@PHI) Brady Singer, Nick Martinez, Nick Lodolo
CLE @CHC (100) DET (70) Gavin Williams (x2), Tanner Bibee Luis L. Ortiz, Slade Cecconi Logan Allen로건
COL HOU (60) CHW (123) Germán Márquez Chase Dollander (x2), Austin Gomber, Kyle Freeland, Antonio Senzatela
DET @WSN (119) @CLE (156) Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal, Jack Flaherty (@CLE) Flaherty (@WSN), Reese Olson (?) Sawyer Gipson-Long
HOU @COL (51) @LAD (34) Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez Lance McCullers Jr. Colton Gordon (x2), Brandon Walter
KCR @SEA (123) @ARI (64) Seth Lugo, Kris Bubic Michael Wacha (x2), Noah Cameron Michael Lorenzen (x2)
LAA @ATL (112) @TOR (85) José Soriano Yusei Kikuchi Tyler Anderson (x2), Kyle Hendricks, Jack Kochanowicz
LAD CHW (147) HOU (83) Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May Ben Casparius, Shohei Ohtani, Justin Wrobleski
MIA MIN (104) MIL (43) Eury Pérez Edward Cabrera (vMIN) Sandy Alcantara Janson Junk (F), Cal Quantrill
MIL @NYM (123) @MIA (102) Freddy Peralta (x2), Jacob Misiorowski Chad Patrick Jose Quintana, Quinn Priester
MIN @MIA (102) TBR (73) Joe Ryan (x2) Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack
NYM MIL (62) NYY (110) Clay Holmes (x2), David Peterson Sean Manaea (?) Paul Blackburn, Frankie Montas
NYY @TOR (85) @NYM (123) Max Fried (x2), Clarke Schmidt, Carlos Rodón Will Warren Marcus Stroman (?)
PHI SDP (114) CIN (71) Zack Wheeler (x2), Cristopher Sánchez, Ranger Suárez Jesús Luzardo Mick Abel
PIT STL (107) @SEA (123) Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller Andrew Heaney (x2), Bailey Falter, Mike Burrows
SDP @PHI (51) TEX (134) Dylan Cease, Nick Pivetta (vTEX) Pivetta (@PHI) Stephen Kolek Matt Waldron (?), Randy Vásquez
SEA KCR (155) PIT (186) George Kirby (x2), Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo, Luis Castillo Emerson Hancock (x2)
SFG @ARI (64) @ATH (76) Logan Webb (x2) Landen Roupp, Robbie Ray Hayden Birdsong (x2), Justin Verlander
STL @PIT (152) @CHC (100) Sonny Gray Erick Fedde 페디 (@PIT), Matthew Liberatore Andre Pallante, Miles Mikolas, Fedde (@CHC)
TBR ATH (83) @MIN (121) Drew Rasmussen (x2), Ryan Pepiot Shane Baz, Zack Littell, Taj Bradley
TEX BAL (140) @SDP (121) Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi Jack Leiter, Kumar Rocker Jacob Latz, Patrick Corbin
TOR NYY (98) LAA (96) Kevin Gausman (x2) Max Scherzer (x2), José Berríos, Chris Bassitt, Eric Lauer 라우어
WSN DET (62) BOS (134) MacKenzie Gore Michael Soroka, Mitchell Parker, Trevor Williams (vBOS) Williams (vDET), Jake Irvin