Archive for Streamers

Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: August 11–17

Credit: Eakin Howard-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

August 11–17
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI @TEX (132) @COL (49) Zac Gallen Ryne Nelson (@TEX) Anthony DeSclafani (x2), Eduardo Rodriguez, Brandon Pfaadt, Nelson (@COL)
ATH TBR (122) LAA (82) Jeffrey Springs (x2), Jacob Lopez, J.T. Ginn, Luis Severino Jack Perkins
ATL @NYM (140) @CLE (130) Spencer Strider (x2) Joey Wentz Carlos Carrasco, Bryce Elder, Erick Fedde 페디
BAL SEA (104) @HOU (111) Trevor Rogers Dean Kremer (x2), Tomoyuki Sugano, Cade Povich Brandon Young
BOS @HOU (111) MIA (58) Garrett Crochet (x2) Lucas Giolito Dustin May, Walker Buehler, Brayan Bello
CHC @TOR (41) PIT (146) Matthew Boyd, Shota Imanaga Cade Horton (vPIT) Horton (@TOR), Jameson Taillon (?) Colin Rea
CHW DET (69) @KCR (122) Shane Smith, Aaron Civale, Sean Burke, Davis Martin Mike Vasil (F)
CIN PHI (50) MIL (12) Andrew Abbott (x2), Chase Burns Brady Singer, Hunter Greene (?) Zack Littell
CLE MIA (83) ATL (112) Gavin Williams Tanner Bibee, Joey Cantillo Logan Allen로건 (x2), Slade Cecconi
COL @STL (146) ARI (76) Kyle Freeland (@STL) Anthony Molina (x2), Austin Gomber, Bradley Blalock, Tanner Gordon
DET @CHW (94) @MIN (99) Jack Flaherty (x2), Tarik Skubal Charlie Morton, Casey Mize Chris Paddack (x2)
HOU BOS (75) BAL (106) Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez Cristian Javier (?), Spencer Arrighetti Colton Gordon
KCR WSN (135) CHW (102) Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, Noah Cameron Bailey Falter (x2), Michael Lorenzen
LAA LAD (66) @ATH (23) José Soriano (x2), Yusei Kikuchi Tyler Anderson, Kyle Henderson, Jack Kochanowicz
LAD @LAA (113) SDP (90) Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto Emmet Sheehan, Shohei Ohtani, Clayton Kershaw
MIA @CLE (130) @BOS (47) Eury Pérez, Edward Cabrera Janson Junk (@CLE), Sandy Alcantara Cal Quantrill, Junk (@BOS)
MIL PIT (122) @CIN (95) Freddy Peralta (x2), Brandon Woodruff, Jacob Misiorowski Quinn Priester Jose Quintana
MIN @NYY (85) DET (86) Joe Ryan Zebby Matthews (x2) Bailey Ober, José Ureña, Simeon Woods Richardson (?) Pierson Ohl
NYM ATL (115) SEA (102) Clay Holmes (vATL), David Peterson, Sean Manaea Kodai Senga, Holmes (vSEA) Frankie Montas
NYY MIN (101) @STL (146) Max Fried Will Warren (x2), Carlos Rodón, Luis Gil Cam Schlittler
PHI @CIN (95) @WSN (153) Ranger Suárez (x2), Cristopher Sánchez (x2), Jesús Luzardo, Zack Wheeler Aaron Nola (?)
PIT @MIL (84) @CHC (122) Paul Skenes Mitch Keller Braxton Ashcraft, Mike Burrows Andrew Heaney (x2)
SDP @SFG (162) @LAD (59) Nick Pivetta Yu Darvish (@SFG), Michael King, Dylan Cease Nestor Cortes, Darvish (@LAD)
SEA @BAL (66) @NYM (140) George Kirby (x2), Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo, Bryan Woo Logan Evans
SFG SDP (122) TBR (180) Logan Webb (x2) Robbie Ray, Justin Verlander Carson Whisenhunt Kai-Wei Teng
STL COL (142) NYY (108) Sonny Gray Matthew Liberatore, Michael McGreevy Miles Mikolas (x2), Andre Pallante
TBR @ATH (23) @SFG (162) Ryan Pepiot (@SFG) Pepiot (@ATH), Shane Baz, Drew Rasmussen, Joe Boyle, Adrian Houser
TEX ARI (98) @TOR (41) Nathan Eovaldi (x2), Merrill Kelly 켈리, Jacob deGrom Jack Leiter Patrick Corbin
TOR CHC (84) TEX (126) Kevin Gausman Chris Bassitt, Eric Lauer 라우어 José Berríos (x2), Max Scherzer
WSN @KCR (122) PHI (86) Cade Cavalli (@KCR), Brad Lord, MacKenzie Gore Mitchell Parker (x2), Jake Irvin

Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: August 4–10

Credit: Bob DeChiara-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

August 4–10
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI SDP (106) COL (125) Zac Gallen Brandon Pfaadt (x2), Ryne Nelson, Eduardo Rodriguez Anthony DeSclafani (?)
ATH @WSN (133) @BAL (64) J.T. Ginn Jeffrey Springs, Jacob Lopez, Luis Severino Osvaldo Bido
ATL MIL (69) MIA (93) Spencer Strider Joey Wentz (x2) Erick Fedde 페디 (x2), Carlos Carrasco, Bryce Elder, Hurston Waldrep (?)
BAL @PHI (44) ATH (72) Dean Kremer, Trevor Rogers Brandon Young (x2), Tomoyuki Sugano, Cade Povich (?)
BOS KCR (86) @SDP (92) Garrett Crochet (x2) Brayan Bello, Lucas Giolito Dustin May, Walker Buehler
CHC CIN (113) @STL (133) Matthew Boyd Michael Soroka (x2), Shota Imanaga, Cade Horton Colin Rea
CHW @SEA (174) CLE (82) Davis Martin (x2), Shane Smith, Aaron Civale, Sean Burke Jonathan Cannon
CIN @CHC (89) @PIT (137) Andrew Abbott, Chase Burns, Nick Lodolo (@PIT) Lodolo (@CHC), Brady Singer Zack Littell (@PIT) Littell (@CHC)
CLE @NYM (133) @CHW (80) Slade Cecconi (x2), Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee Logan Allen로건, Joey Cantillo
COL TOR (37) @ARI (114) Tanner Gordon (x2), Kyle Freeland, Antonio Senzatela, Austin Gomber, Bradley Blalock
DET MIN (112) LAA (101) Casey Mize (vMIN), Tarik Skubal Chris Paddack, Jack Flaherty, Mize (vLAA) Charlie Morton
HOU @MIA (127) @NYY (75) Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez Spencer Arrighetti (?) Jason Alexander (x2), Colton Gordon
KCR @BOS (60) @MIN (79) Seth Lugo Michael Wacha, Noah Cameron Bailey Falter (x2) Ryan Bergert (?)
LAA TBR (109) @DET (121) Yusei Kikuchi (x2), José Soriano Tyler Anderson, Kyle Hendricks, Jack Kochanowicz
LAD STL (126) TOR (59) Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto Emmet Sheehan, Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell Clayton Kershaw
MIA HOU (88) @ATL (88) Eury Pérez Sandy Alcantara (x2), Edward Cabrera Cal Quantrill (x2), Ryan Gusto, Janson Junk
MIL @ATL (88) NYM (113) Freddy Peralta, Brandon Woodruff, Jacob Misiorowski Quinn Priester (x2) Jose Quintana
MIN @DET (121) KCR (100) Joe Ryan Zebby Matthews, Mick Abel, Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods Richardson
NYM CLE (111) @MIL (105) Sean Manaea (x2), David Peterson Clay Holmes, Kodai Senga Frankie Montas
NYY @TEX (131) HOU (82) Max Fried (x2) Will Warren, Carlos Rodón Marcus Stroman, Luis Gil
PHI BAL (89) @TEX (131) Ranger Suárez, Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sánchez, Jesús Luzardo (@TEX) Luzardo (vBAL) Taijuan Walker
PIT SFG (111) CIN (98) Paul Skenes Mike Burrows (x2), Mitch Keller Carmen Mlodzinski (x2), Andrew Heaney
SDP @ARI (114) BOS (96) Nick Pivetta Yu Darvish, Dylan Cease JP Sears (x2) Randy Vásquez
SEA CHW (113) TBR (150) Bryan Woo (x2), George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo Logan Evans
SFG @PIT (137) WSN (150) Logan Webb Justin Verlander (x2), Robbie Ray Carson Whisenhunt Spencer Bivens (?)
STL @LAD (59) CHC (70) Sonny Gray (x2) Miles Mikolas, Matthew Liberatore, Michael McGreevy, Andre Pallante
TBR @LAA (81) @SEA (174) Adrian Houser (x2), Ryan Pepiot, Shane Baz, Drew Rasmussen, Joe Boyle
TEX NYY (69) PHI (71) Jacob deGrom Nathan Eovaldi, Merrill Kelly 켈리 Jack Leiter Patrick Corbin
TOR @COL (52) @LAD (59) Kevin Gausman Max Scherzer, Chris Bassitt Eric Lauer 라우어 (x2), José Berríos
WSN ATH (59) @SFG (145) MacKenzie Gore (@SFG) Gore (vATH), Brad Lord Mitchell Parker, Jake Irvin Cade Cavalli (?)

Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: July 28–August 3

Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

Reminder: the trade deadline falls in the middle of next week. Be prepared for some pitching chaos as teams swap starters and realign their rotations following the flurry of activity at the deadline.

Also, the August 2 game between the Braves and Reds is the MLB Speedway Classic. I honestly have no idea how the temporary field constructed at Bristol Motor Speedway will play. These are the proposed field dimensions: 330 feet down each of the foul lines, 400 feet to center field, 375 feet to the right-field alley and 384 feet to the left-field alley. I’d probably avoid starting either pitcher in that game which creates a difficult choice for what to do about Chase Burns.

July 28–August 3
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI @DET (136) @ATH (54) Brandon Pfaadt, Ryne Nelson, Merrill Kelly 켈리, Zac Gallen Eduardo Rodriguez (x2)
ATH SEA (8) ARI (17) JP Sears (x2) Luis Severino, Jeffrey Springs, Jacob Lopez, J.T. Ginn
ATL @KCR (135) @CIN (59) Spencer Strider Grant Holmes Dane Dunning (F), Joey Wentz, Bryce Elder
BAL TOR (109) @CHC (102) Dean Kremer, Trevor Rogers Zach Eflin (x2), Charlie Morton, Tomoyuki Sugano Brandon Young (?)
BOS @MIN (79) HOU (78) Garrett Crochet Lucas Giolito Brayan Bello, Walker Buehler Richard Fitts (x2)
CHC @MIN (79) BAL (178) Matthew Boyd (x2), Shota Imanaga Cade Horton Colin Rea, Ben Brown
CHW PHI (114) @LAA (56) Adrian Houser Jonathan Cannon Davis Martin (x2), Aaron Civale, Sean Burke
CIN LAD (70) ATL (70) Andrew Abbott Nick Lodolo Chase Burns (x2), Nick Martinez, Brady Singer
CLE COL (124) MIN (101) Slade Cecconi (x2), Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee Logan Allen로건, Joey Cantillo
COL @CLE (133) PIT (129) Kyle Freeland Bradley Blalock, Tanner Gordon, Antonio Senzatela, Austin Gomber
DET ARI (69) @PHI (79) Tarik Skubal Casey Mize (x2), Reese Olson, Jack Flaherty Troy Melton
HOU WSN (125) @BOS (92) Framber Valdez (x2), Hunter Brown Brandon Walter Colton Gordon Jason Alexander
KCR ATL (100) @TOR (45) Seth Lugo, Kris Bubic Michael Wacha Noah Cameron Rich Hill (x2)
LAA TEX (102) CHW (93) Yusei Kikuchi José Soriano Tyler Anderson Jake Eder (F), Kyle Hendricks
LAD @CIN (59) @TBR (85) Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow Shohei Ohtani Blake Snell (?), Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May
MIA @STL (114) NYY (87) Eury Pérez Edward Cabrera (x2), Sandy Alcantara Cal Quantrill, Janson Junk
MIL CHC (59) @WSN (146) Freddy Peralta, Brandon Woodruff Jacob Misiorowski Quinn Priester, Jose Quintana Nestor Cortes (?)
MIN BOS (135) @CLE (133) Joe Ryan Zebby Matthews Simeon Woods Richardson (x2), Chris Paddack, Bailey Ober (?)
NYM @SDP (118) SFG (112) Kodai Senga Sean Manaea, Clay Holmes, David Peterson Frankie Montas (x2)
NYY TBR (126) @MIA (124) Max Fried (x2), Carlos Rodón Will Warren Luis Gil (?), Marcus Stroman, Cam Schlittler
PHI @CHW (100) DET (116) Cristopher Sánchez (x2), Jesús Luzardo, Ranger Suárez, Zack Wheeler Taijuan Walker
PIT @SFG (137) @COL (41) Mitch Keller (@SFG), Paul Skenes Bailey Falter, Mike Burrows, Keller (@COL) Andrew Heaney
SDP NYM (121) STL (116) Nick Pivetta Dylan Cease (x2), Yu Darvish Stephen Kolek Randy Vásquez
SEA @ATH (54) TEX (146) Bryan Woo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo (vTEX) Castillo (@ATH) Logan Evans (x2)
SFG PIT (185) @NYM (139) Landen Roupp (x2), Logan Webb Justin Verlander, Robbie Ray Carson Seymour (?)
STL MIA (107) @SDP (118) Sonny Gray Matthew Liberatore, Michael McGreevy Andre Pallante (x2), Miles Mikolas
TBR @NYY (87) LAD (80) Ryan Pepiot, Shane Baz Drew Rasmussen (x2), Joe Boyle (x2) Zack Littell
TEX @LAA (56) @SEA (121) Jacob deGrom (x2), Nathan Eovaldi Jack Leiter Patrick Corbin (x2), Kumar Rocker
TOR @BAL (146) KCR (112) Kevin Gausman Chris Bassitt (x2), Eric Lauer 라우어 José Berríos, Max Scherzer Easton Lucas
WSN @HOU (116) MIL (63) MacKenzie Gore Michael Soroka Brad Lord (x2), Mitchell Parker, Jake Irvin

Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: July 18–27

Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

Note: due to the All-Star break, the Week 17 Ottoneu matchup runs for 10 days from July 18–27. If your head-to-head league has a games started cap, the number of starts doesn’t change even with the additional days. That means you’ll have a lot more starts to pick from to hit your cap — you’ll want to be extra judicious when picking your starters this week. I’ve separated this weekend’s games from next week’s into two tables below for a little more clarity.

July 18–20
Team Series 1 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI STL (129) Merrill Kelly 켈리 Brandon Pfaadt, Ryne Nelson
ATH @CLE (167) JP Sears, Luis Severino Jeffrey Springs
ATL NYY (42) Spencer Strider Grant Holmes Joey Wentz
BAL @TBR (81) Charlie Morton, Trevor Rogers Dean Kremer
BOS @CHC (90) Garrett Crochet Lucas Giolito Brayan Bello
CHC BOS (75) Shota Imanaga, Matthew Boyd Colin Rea
CHW @PIT (146) Adrian Houser Jonathan Cannon, Aaron Civale
CIN @NYM (104) Andrew Abbott Nick Lodolo Nick Martinez
CLE ATH (87) Slade Cecconi, Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams
COL MIN (94) Kyle Freeland, Germán Márquez Antonio Senzatela
DET @TEX (100) Tarik Skubal Reese Olson Keider Montero
HOU @SEA (108) Framber Valdez Brandon Walter, Lance McCullers Jr.
KCR @MIA (123) Seth Lugo, Kris Bubic Michael Wacha
LAA @PHI (52) José Soriano, Yusei Kikuchi Tyler Anderson
LAD MIL (59) Tyler Glasnow Emmet Sheehan, Clayton Kershaw
MIA KCR (105) Sandy Alcantara Janson Junk Cal Quantrill
MIL @LAD (93) Freddy Peralta Quinn Priester, Jose Quintana
MIN @COL (80) Joe Ryan Chris Paddack, Zebby Matthews (?)
NYM CIN (122) Sean Manaea, Clay Holmes, David Peterson
NYY @ATL (103) Max Fried Will Warren, Carlos Rodón
PHI LAA (84) Jesús Luzardo, Ranger Suárez Taijuan Walker
PIT CHW (155) Bailey Falter, Mike Burrows, Andrew Heaney
SDP @WSN (128) Dylan Cease, Nick Pivetta Yu Darvish
SEA HOU (79) Logan Gilbert Luis Castillo Logan Evans
SFG @TOR (52) Logan Webb Robbie Ray Justin Verlander
STL @ARI (78) Sonny Gray Andre Pallante, Miles Mikolas
TBR BAL (113) Ryan Pepiot Taj Bradley, Zack Littell
TEX DET (67) Nathan Eovaldi Patrick Corbin, Kumar Rocker
TOR SFG (142) Chris Bassitt, José Berríos Eric Lauer 라우어
WSN SDP (144) MacKenzie Gore Michael Soroka Mitchell Parker
July 21–27
Team Series 2 Matchup Series 3 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI HOU (67) @PIT (146) Ryne Nelson, Merrill Kelly, Zac Gallen (@PIT) Gallen (vHOU) Eduardo Rodriguez, Brandon Pfaadt
ATH @TEX (100) @HOU (77) JP Sears Jacob Lopez (x2), J.T. Ginn (?), Luis Severino, Jeffrey Springs
ATL SFG (138) @TEX (100) Spencer Strider Bryce Elder, Grant Holmes Davis Daniel, Joey Wentz
BAL @CLE (167) COL (155) Charlie Morton, Dean Kremer, Trevor Rogers Tomoyuki Sugano (x2), Zach Eflin (?)
BOS @PHI (52) LAD (105) Garrett Crochet Lucas Giolito, Brayan Bello Richard Fitts (x2), Walker Buehler
CHC KCR (126) @CHW (141) Shota Imanaga, Matthew Boyd Cade Horton (x2) Colin Rea Chris Flexen 플렉센
CHW @TBR (81) CHC (40) Shane Smith, Sean Burke, Adrian Houser Jonathan Cannon, Davis Martin (?), Aaron Civale
CIN @WSN (128) TBR (97) Nick Lodolo, Andrew Abbott Brady Singer (x2), Chase Burns Nick Martinez
CLE BAL (149) @KCR (128) Joey Cantillo (x2), Slade Cecconi, Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams Logan Allen로건 (x2)
COL STL (91) @BAL (124) Kyle Freeland, Germán Márquez Austin Gomber, Bradley Blalock, Antonio Senzatela
DET @PIT (146) TOR (112) Casey Mize (@PIT), Reese Olson, Tarik Skubal Jack Flaherty (x2), Mize (vTOR) Keider Montero
HOU @ARI (78) ATH (79) Hunter Brown (x2), Framber Valdez Colton Gordon (x2), Brandon Walter, Lance McCullers Jr.
KCR @CHC (90) CLE (148) Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Kris Bubic Noah Cameron (vCLE) Cameron (@CHC) Rich Hill (?!)
LAA @NYM (104) SEA (17) José Soriano, Yusei Kikuchi Kyle Hendricks (x2), Carson Fulmer (x2), Tyler Anderson
LAD MIN (117) @BOS (24) Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow Shohei Ohtani Dustin May, Emmet Sheehan, Clayton Kershaw
MIA SDP (136) @MIL (104) Eury Pérez (x2) Sandy Alcantara Edward Cabrera, Janson Junk Cal Quantrill
MIL @SEA (108) MIA (79) Brandon Woodruff, Jacob Misiorowski, Freddy Peralta Quinn Priester, Nestor Cortes (?), Jose Quintana
MIN @LAD (93) WSN (106) Joe Ryan Simeon Woods Richardson (x2), David Festa, Chris Paddack Bailey Ober (?)
NYM LAA (106) @SFG (168) Kodai Senga (x2), David Peterson Sean Manaea, Clay Holmes Frankie Montas
NYY @TOR (52) PHI (87) Max Fried Will Warren, Carlos Rodón Marcus Stroman (x2), Cam Schlittler
PHI BOS (50) @NYY (38) Zack Wheeler (x2), Cristopher Sánchez Jesús Luzardo, Ranger Suárez Taijuan Walker
PIT DET (75) ARI (66) Paul Skenes Mitch Keller (x2) Bailey Falter, Mike Burrows, Andrew Heaney
SDP @MIA (123) @STL (128) Dylan Cease, Nick Pivetta Yu Darvish Stephen Kolek (x2) Randy Vásquez (x2)
SEA MIL (86) @LAA (79) Bryan Woo (x2), George Kirby (x2), Logan Gilbert Luis Castillo Logan Evans
SFG @ATL (103) NYM (113) Robbie Ray, Logan Webb Landen Roupp (x2), Hayden Birdsong Justin Verlander
STL @COL (80) SDP (159) Sonny Gray, Matthew Liberatore (vSDP) Liberatore (@COL), Miles Mikolas, Erick Fedde 페디 (vSDP) Fedde (@COL), Andre Pallante
TBR CHW (128) @CIN (86) Shane Baz (vCHW), Drew Rasmussen Ryan Pepiot, Baz (@CIN) Taj Bradley, Zack Littell
TEX ATH (69) ATL (96) Jacob deGrom (x2), Nathan Eovaldi Jack Leiter, Patrick Corbin, Kumar Rocker
TOR NYY (46) @DET (94) Kevin Gausman (@DET) Gausman (vNYY) Max Scherzer (x2), Chris Bassitt, Eric Lauer, José Berríos
WSN CIN (110) @MIN (101) MacKenzie Gore Michael Soroka Jake Irvin (x2), Mitchell Parker Andry Lara (?)

Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: July 7–13

Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

July 7–13
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI @SDP (134) @LAA (73) Merrill Kelly 켈리 (x2) Eduardo Rodriguez, Ryne Nelson, Zac Gallen Brandon Pfaadt (x2)
ATH ATL (95) TOR (86) Jeffrey Springs (x2), Mitch Spence, JP Sears, Luis Severino, Jacob Lopez
ATL @ATH (81) @STL (123) Spencer Strider Grant Holmes Bryce Elder, Hurston Waldrep (?) Didier Fuentes (x2)
BAL NYM (120) MIA (100) Charlie Morton Tomoyuki Sugano, Dean Kremer, Trevor Rogers Brandon Young (x2)
BOS COL (149) TBR (57) Garrett Crochet Brayan Bello, Lucas Giolito Richard Fitts (vCOL), Walker Buehler Hunter Dobbins (?), Fitts (vTBR)
CHC @MIN (107) @NYY (49) Shota Imanaga (@MIN) Matthew Boyd, Imanaga (@NYY) Cade Horton, Colin Rea, Jameson Taillon
CHW TOR (97) CLE (143) Adrian Houser, Shane Smith, Sean Burke (vCLE) Burke (vTOR), Jonathan Cannon Aaron Civale (x2)
CIN MIA (49) COL (130) Andrew Abbott Nick Martinez (x2), Nick Lodolo, Brady Singer (vCOL) Singer (vMIA), Chase Burns
CLE @HOU (102) @CHW (141) Gavin Williams Tanner Bibee (@CHW) Bibee (@HOU), Joey Cantillo (x2), Slade Cecconi, Logan Allen로건
COL @BOS (50) @CIN (86) Kyle Freeland, Germán Márquez Austin Gomber, Ryan Feltner (?), Antonio Senzatela, Chase Dollander
DET TBR (89) SEA (76) Tarik Skubal Jack Flaherty (x2), Reese Olson, Casey Mize Dietrich Enns 엔스
HOU CLE (164) TEX (148) Hunter Brown (x2), Framber Valdez Brandon Walter, Lance McCullers Jr. Colton Gordon
KCR PIT (129) NYM (100) Seth Lugo, Kris Bubic Noah Cameron (vPIT), Michael Wacha Michael Lorenzen, Cameron (vNYM)
LAA TEX (121) ARI (27) Yusei Kikuchi (vTEX), José Soriano (vTEX) Kikuchi (vARI), Soriano (vARI) Kyle Hendricks, Jack Kochanowicz, Tyler Anderson
LAD @MIL (86) @SFG (164) Yoshinobu Yamamoto Clayton Kershaw, Tyler Glasnow (?), Shohei Ohtani (?) Dustin May, Ben Casparius (F)
MIA @CIN (86) @BAL (104) Eury Pérez (x2) Janson Junk (x2), Edward Cabrera Sandy Alcantara Cal Quantrill
MIL LAD (68) WSN (72) Freddy Peralta (x2), Jacob Misiorowski, Chad Patrick Jose Quintana, Quinn Priester, Brandon Woodruff
MIN CHC (42) PIT (134) Joe Ryan Simeon Woods Richardson (x2), David Festa, Chris Paddack Connor Gillispie
NYM @BAL (104) @KCR (164) Clay Holmes (@KCR) Holmes (@BAL), David Peterson Frankie Montas, Sean Manaea (?) Blade Tidwell
NYY SEA (45) CHC (29) Max Fried Carlos Rodón Will Warren (x2), Clarke Schmidt Marcus Stroman
PHI @SFG (164) @SDP (134) Cristopher Sánchez (x2), Jesús Luzardo, Ranger Suárez, Zack Wheeler Mick Abel
PIT @KCR (164) @MIN (107) Paul Skenes (x2), Mitch Keller Mike Burrows Bailey Falter, Andrew Heaney
SDP ARI (58) PHI (118) Dylan Cease (x2), Nick Pivetta (vPHI) Pivetta (vARI) Stephen Kolek, Yu Darvish (?) Randy Vásquez
SEA @NYY (49) @DET (71) Logan Gilbert (x2), Bryan Woo, George Kirby Luis Castillo Logan Evans
SFG PHI (136) LAD (102) Robbie Ray, Logan Webb Landen Roupp (vPHI) Justin Verlander, Hayden Birdsong, Roupp (vLAD)
STL WSN (100) ATL (143) Sonny Gray, Matthew Liberatore Andre Pallante (x2), Miles Mikolas, Erick Fedde 페디
TBR @DET (71) @BOS (50) Shane Baz (x2), Ryan Pepiot (x2), Drew Rasmussen Taj Bradley Zack Littell
TEX @LAA (73) @HOU (102) Jacob deGrom (x2), Nathan Eovaldi (x2) Kumar Rocker, Jack Leiter Patrick Corbin
TOR @CHW (141) @ATH (81) José Berríos (@CHW), Chris Bassitt Kevin Gausman Bowden Francis, Max Scherzer, Berríos (@ATH)
WSN @STL (123) @MIL (86) MacKenzie Gore Jake Irvin, Michael Soroka, Mitchell Parker Trevor Williams (x2)

Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: June 30–July 6

Credit: Brad Rempel-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

June 30–July 6
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI SFG (121) KCR (141) Merrill Kelly 켈리 Ryne Nelson (x2), Zac Gallen (x2), Eduardo Rodriguez Brandon Pfaadt
ATH @TBR (29) SFG (87) Jeffrey Springs, Mitch Spence, JP Sears, Luis Severino Jacob Lopez (x2)
ATL LAA (91) BAL (146) Spencer Schwellenbach, Spencer Strider Grant Holmes (vBAL) Holmes (vLAA), Bryce Elder, Didier Fuentes
BAL @TEX (131) @ATL (112) Charlie Morton Trevor Rogers (x2), Cade Povich (?), Tomoyuki Sugano, Zach Eflin
BOS CIN (64) @WSN (119) Garrett Crochet (x2) Lucas Giolito Walker Buehler Richard Fitts, Brayan Bello
CHC CLE (166) STL (123) Matthew Boyd (x2), Shota Imanaga Cade Horton Colin Rea, Jameson Taillon
CHW @LAD (34) @COL (51) Mike Vasil (F), Sean Burke, Aaron Civale, Adrian Houser, Jonathan Cannon (?), Shane Smith
CIN @BOS (94) @PHI (51) Chase Burns (@BOS), Andrew Abbott Burns (@PHI) Brady Singer, Nick Martinez, Nick Lodolo
CLE @CHC (100) DET (70) Gavin Williams (x2), Tanner Bibee Luis L. Ortiz, Slade Cecconi Logan Allen로건
COL HOU (60) CHW (123) Germán Márquez Chase Dollander (x2), Austin Gomber, Kyle Freeland, Antonio Senzatela
DET @WSN (119) @CLE (156) Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal, Jack Flaherty (@CLE) Flaherty (@WSN), Reese Olson (?) Sawyer Gipson-Long
HOU @COL (51) @LAD (34) Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez Lance McCullers Jr. Colton Gordon (x2), Brandon Walter
KCR @SEA (123) @ARI (64) Seth Lugo, Kris Bubic Michael Wacha (x2), Noah Cameron Michael Lorenzen (x2)
LAA @ATL (112) @TOR (85) José Soriano Yusei Kikuchi Tyler Anderson (x2), Kyle Hendricks, Jack Kochanowicz
LAD CHW (147) HOU (83) Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May Ben Casparius, Shohei Ohtani, Justin Wrobleski
MIA MIN (104) MIL (43) Eury Pérez Edward Cabrera (vMIN) Sandy Alcantara Janson Junk (F), Cal Quantrill
MIL @NYM (123) @MIA (102) Freddy Peralta (x2), Jacob Misiorowski Chad Patrick Jose Quintana, Quinn Priester
MIN @MIA (102) TBR (73) Joe Ryan (x2) Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack
NYM MIL (62) NYY (110) Clay Holmes (x2), David Peterson Sean Manaea (?) Paul Blackburn, Frankie Montas
NYY @TOR (85) @NYM (123) Max Fried (x2), Clarke Schmidt, Carlos Rodón Will Warren Marcus Stroman (?)
PHI SDP (114) CIN (71) Zack Wheeler (x2), Cristopher Sánchez, Ranger Suárez Jesús Luzardo Mick Abel
PIT STL (107) @SEA (123) Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller Andrew Heaney (x2), Bailey Falter, Mike Burrows
SDP @PHI (51) TEX (134) Dylan Cease, Nick Pivetta (vTEX) Pivetta (@PHI) Stephen Kolek Matt Waldron (?), Randy Vásquez
SEA KCR (155) PIT (186) George Kirby (x2), Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo, Luis Castillo Emerson Hancock (x2)
SFG @ARI (64) @ATH (76) Logan Webb (x2) Landen Roupp, Robbie Ray Hayden Birdsong (x2), Justin Verlander
STL @PIT (152) @CHC (100) Sonny Gray Erick Fedde 페디 (@PIT), Matthew Liberatore Andre Pallante, Miles Mikolas, Fedde (@CHC)
TBR ATH (83) @MIN (121) Drew Rasmussen (x2), Ryan Pepiot Shane Baz, Zack Littell, Taj Bradley
TEX BAL (140) @SDP (121) Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi Jack Leiter, Kumar Rocker Jacob Latz, Patrick Corbin
TOR NYY (98) LAA (96) Kevin Gausman (x2) Max Scherzer (x2), José Berríos, Chris Bassitt, Eric Lauer 라우어
WSN DET (62) BOS (134) MacKenzie Gore Michael Soroka, Mitchell Parker, Trevor Williams (vBOS) Williams (vDET), Jake Irvin

Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: June 23–29

Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

June 23–29
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI @CHW (133) MIA (97) Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly 켈리 Eduardo Rodriguez (x2), Ryne Nelson Brandon Pfaadt
ATH @DET (96) @NYY (83) Luis Severino (@DET) Jeffrey Springs, Mitch Spence, JP Sears, Severino (@NYY) Jacob Lopez
ATL @NYM (79) PHI (95) Chris Sale (x2), Spencer Strider (x2), Spencer Schwellenbach Bryce Elder, Grant Holmes
BAL TEX (113) TBR (93) Charlie Morton Trevor Rogers (x2), Tomoyuki Sugano, Zach Eflin, Dean Kremer
BOS @LAA (131) TOR (99) Garrett Crochet Lucas Giolito Walker Buehler (x2), Hunter Dobbins, Brayan Bello
CHC @STL (113) @HOU (55) Ben Brown (@STL), Jameson Taillon, Cade Horton, Shota Imanaga (?), Matthew Boyd Colin Rea, Brown (@HOU)
CHW ARI (50) SFG (100) Adrian Houser, Shane Smith (vSFG) Smith (vARI), Aaron Civale Sean Burke, Davis Martin
CIN NYY (55) SDP (104) Andrew Abbott Nick Lodolo (vSDP) Lodolo (vNYY), Nick Martinez Brady Singer, Wade Miley
CLE TOR (123) STL (130) Gavin Williams Tanner Bibee Logan Allen로건 (x2), Luis L. Ortiz, Slade Cecconi
COL LAD (31) @MIL (145) Kyle Freeland Germán Márquez (@MIL) Márquez (vLAD), Chase Dollander, Austin Gomber, Antonio Senzatela
DET ATH (101) MIN (141) Tarik Skubal (x2), Jack Flaherty Casey Mize Reese Olson (?), Sawyer Gipson-Long
HOU PHI (100) CHC (91) Framber Valdez (x2), Hunter Brown Colton Gordon, Brandon Walter, Ryan Gusto
KCR TBR (73) LAD (57) Kris Bubic (vTBR) Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, Bubic (vLAD) Michael Lorenzen, Noah Cameron
LAA BOS (75) WSN (113) Yusei Kikuchi, José Soriano Jack Kochanowicz (x2), Tyler Anderson, Kyle Hendricks
LAD @COL (36) @KCR (142) Dustin May Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Ben Casparius Clayton Kershaw, Shohei Ohtani Emmet Sheehan
MIA @SFG (142) @ARI (71) Edward Cabrera, Eury Pérez Cal Quantrill (@SFG), Sandy Alcantara Adam Mazur, Quantrill (@ARI)
MIL PIT (158) COL (91) Chad Patrick (x2), Freddy Peralta, Jacob Misiorowski Quinn Priester Jose Quintana
MIN SEA (64) @DET (96) Joe Ryan Bailey Ober (x2), Chris Paddack (x2), Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa
NYM ATL (120) @PIT (151) Clay Holmes, David Peterson Griffin Canning Paul Blackburn (x2), Frankie Montas (?)
NYY @CIN (37) ATH (72) Max Fried Carlos Rodón, Clarke Schmidt, Will Warren Ryan Yarbrough (x2)
PHI @HOU (55) @ATL (104) Ranger Suárez (x2), Zack Wheeler Cristopher Sánchez, Jesús Luzardo Mick Abel
PIT @MIL (145) NYM (55) Paul Skenes Mitch Keller Andrew Heaney, Mike Burrows, Bailey Falter Carmen Mlodzinski
SDP WSN (142) @CIN (37) Nick Pivetta Dylan Cease Stephen Kolek (vWSN) Ryan Bergert, Randy Vásquez, Kolek (@CIN)
SEA @MIN (111) @TEX (99) Bryan Woo (x2), George Kirby, Logan Gilbert Luis Castillo (x2) Emerson Hancock
SFG MIA (115) @CHW (133) Logan Webb, Landen Roupp, Robbie Ray Hayden Birdsong Justin Verlander (x2)
STL CHC (106) @CLE (164) Sonny Gray, Matthew Liberatore (@CLE) Liberatore (vCHC), Erick Fedde 페디, Miles Mikolas Michael McGreevy, Andre Pallante
TBR @KCR (142) @BAL (93) Drew Rasmussen, Ryan Pepiot Shane Baz Taj Bradley (x2), Zack Littell
TEX @BAL (93) SEA (56) Nathan Eovaldi, Jacob deGrom Patrick Corbin (x2), Kumar Rocker, Jack Leiter
TOR @CLE (164) @BOS (72) Kevin Gausman Chris Bassitt Max Scherzer (?), Eric Lauer 라우어, José Berríos
WSN @SDP (129) @LAA (131) MacKenzie Gore Mitchell Parker (x2), Trevor Williams, Jake Irvin, Michael Soroka

Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: June 16–22

Credit: Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

June 16–22
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI @TOR (50) @COL (61) Merrill Kelly 켈리 Eduardo Rodriguez, Ryne Nelson, Zac Gallen Brandon Pfaadt (x2)
ATH HOU (124) CLE (91) Jeffrey Springs Luis Severino, Mitch Spence J.T. Ginn (?), JP Sears, Jacob Lopez
ATL NYM (45) @MIA (143) Spencer Schwellenbach, Spencer Strider, Chris Sale Grant Holmes (@MIA) Holmes (vNYM), Bryce Elder
BAL @TBR (73) @NYY (33) Zach Eflin (@TBR) Dean Kremer (@TBR), Charlie Morton, Tomoyuki Sugano, Eflin (@NYY) Cade Povich, Kremer (@NYY)
BOS @SEA (161) @SFG (158) Garrett Crochet Lucas Giolito (x2), Walker Buehler Hunter Dobbins, Brayan Bello
CHC MIL (98) SEA (105) Matthew Boyd Ben Brown (x2), Shota Imanaga (?) Jameson Taillon, Cade Horton, Colin Rea
CHW STL (119) @TOR (50) Adrian Houser, Shane Smith Sean Burke (vSTL), Davis Martin Jonathan Cannon, Burke (@TOR)
CIN MIN (51) @STL (131) Andrew Abbott (x2) Nick Lodolo Nick Martinez, Brady Singer, Wade Miley
CLE @SFG (158) @ATH (47) Gavin Williams Logan Allen로건 Slade Cecconi (@SFG), Tanner Bibee, Luis L. Ortiz Cecconi (@ATH)
COL @WSN (151) ARI (24) Kyle Freeland (@WSN) Germán Márquez Antonio Senzatela (x2), Chase Dollander, Austin Gomber (?), Freeland (vARI)
DET PIT (162) @TBR (73) Casey Mize (vPIT), Tarik Skubal, Jack Flaherty Mize (@TBR) Sawyer Gipson-Long Keider Montero
HOU @ATH (47) @LAA (104) Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown Lance McCullers Jr. (@LAA) McCullers Jr. (@ATH), Brandon Walter Ryan Gusto, Colton Gordon
KCR @TEX (136) @SDP (154) Kris Bubic (x2), Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Noah Cameron Michael Lorenzen
LAA @NYY (33) HOU (127) Yusei Kikuchi, José Soriano (vHOU) Soriano (@NYY) Kyle Hendricks (x2), Jack Kochanowicz, Tyler Anderson
LAD SDP (143) WSN (122) Yoshinobu Yamamoto Ben Casparius, Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May Justin Wrobleski (x2), Matt Sauer
MIA PHI (122) ATL (102) Eury Pérez Sandy Alcantara (x2), Edward Cabrera Cal Quantrill, Valente Bellozo (?)
MIL @CHC (119) @MIN (70) Chad Patrick (x2), Freddy Peralta Jose Quintana, Aaron Civale (?) Quinn Priester
MIN @CIN (69) MIL (82) Joe Ryan Chris Paddack David Festa (x2), Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods Richardson
NYM @ATL (105) @PHI (100) David Peterson (x2), Clay Holmes Tylor Megill, Griffin Canning Paul Blackburn
NYY LAA (75) BAL (103) Carlos Rodón, Max Fried Clarke Schmidt (x2), Will Warren (x2) Ryan Yarbrough
PHI @MIA (143) NYM (38) Jesús Luzardo (@MIA), Ranger Suárez, Cristopher Sánchez, Zack Wheeler Mick Abel (@MIA), Luzardo (vNYM) Mick Abel (vNYM)
PIT @DET (143) TEX (135) Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller Andrew Heaney Bailey Falter (x2), Mike Burrows
SDP @LAD (44) KCR (91) Nick Pivetta, Dylan Cease (vKCR) Cease (@LAD) Randy Vásquez (x2), Stephen Kolek, Ryan Bergert
SEA BOS (84) @CHC (119) Luis Castillo, George Kirby Logan Gilbert (?), Bryan Woo Emerson Hancock
SFG CLE (144) BOS (89) Robbie Ray (x2), Logan Webb Hayden Birdsong, Landen Roupp Justin Verlander (?)
STL @CHW (137) CIN (117) Matthew Liberatore (x2), Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde 페디 Andre Pallante, Miles Mikolas
TBR BAL (98) DET (84) Ryan Pepiot (x2), Drew Rasmussen Zack Littell (x2), Taj Bradley, Shane Baz
TEX KCR (76) @PIT (131) Jacob deGrom, Tyler Mahle Nathan Eovaldi (?) Jack Leiter (x2) Patrick Corbin
TOR ARI (59) CHW (163) Chris Bassitt (vCHW) Bassitt (vARI), Kevin Gausman, José Berríos Bowden Francis Eric Lauer 라우어
WSN COL (135) @LAD (44) Mitchell Parker, MacKenzie Gore Jake Irvin (vCOL), Michael Soroka (vCOL), Trevor Williams Irvin (@LAD), Soroka (@LAD)

Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: June 9–15

Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

June 9–15
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI SEA (99) SDP (139) Merrill Kelly 켈리 (x2), Zac Gallen Ryne Nelson Brandon Pfaadt, Eduardo Rodriguez
ATH @LAA (113) @KCR (142) Luis Severino Jeffrey Springs (@KCR) Springs (@LAA), Mitch Spence, JP Sears Jacob Lopez
ATL @MIL (91) COL (158) Chris Sale (x2), Spencer Schwellenbach, Spencer Strider Grant Holmes, Bryce Elder
BAL DET (110) LAA (108) Cade Povich (x2), Zach Eflin Dean Kremer, Charlie Morton, Tomoyuki Sugano
BOS TBR (64) NYY (45) Garrett Crochet Brayan Bello (x2), Lucas Giolito, Walker Buehler, Hunter Dobbins
CHC @PHI (93) PIT (130) Matthew Boyd (x2) Jameson Taillon, Colin Rea (vPIT) Rea (@PHI), Ben Brown, Cade Horton
CHW @HOU (64) @TEX (155) Shane Smith, Sean Burke (@TEX) Burke (@HOU), Davis Martin, Adrian Houser Bryse Wilson
CIN @CLE (135) @DET (125) Andrew Abbott (x2), Nick Lodolo Nick Martinez Brady Singer Wade Miley
CLE CIN (100) @SEA (158) Gavin Williams Luis L. Ortiz (x2), Tanner Bibee Slade Cecconi, Logan Allen로건
COL SFG (114) @ATL (115) Kyle Freeland, Germán Márquez Chase Dollander (x2), Antonio Senzatela, Carson Palmquist
DET @BAL (113) CIN (107) Tarik Skubal, Jack Flaherty Casey Mize Sawyer Gipson-Long (x2) Keider Montero
HOU CHW (126) MIN (108) Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown Lance McCullers Jr. Ryan Gusto (x2), Colton Gordon
KCR NYY (55) ATH (65) Kris Bubic (x2) Cole Ragans, Michael Wacha Seth Lugo Michael Lorenzen
LAA ATH (47) @BAL (113) Yusei Kikuchi (x2), José Soriano Tyler Anderson Kyle Hendricks, Jack Kochanowicz
LAD @SDP (141) SFG (137) Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dustin May Clayton Kershaw (x2), Tony Gonsolin Landon Knack
MIA @PIT (102) @WSN (99) Sandy Alcantara, Edward Cabrera, Ryan Weathers Eury Pérez (?), Cal Quantrill Connor Gillispie
MIL ATL (106) STL (115) Freddy Peralta (x2), Chad Patrick Quinn Priester, Jose Quintana, Aaron Civale, Brandon Woodruff (?)
MIN TEX (154) @HOU (64) Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan Zebby Matthews (vTEX), David Festa Chris Paddack, Matthews (@HOU)
NYM WSN (106) TBR (93) David Peterson, Kodai Senga, Clay Holmes Griffin Canning (x2), Tylor Megill
NYY @KCR (142) @BOS (43) Clarke Schmidt (@KCR), Max Fried, Carlos Rodón Will Warren, Schmidt (@BOS) Ryan Yarbrough
PHI CHC (38) TOR (86) Zack Wheeler (x2), Ranger Suárez, Cristopher Sánchez Jesús Luzardo Mick Abel
PIT MIA (110) @CHC (86) Mitch Keller (vMIA), Paul Skenes Keller (@CHC) Bailey Falter, Andrew Heaney Mike Burrows (x2)
SDP LAD (56) @ARI (56) Nick Pivetta (x2), Dylan Cease Stephen Kolek Randy Vásquez, Ryan Bergert
SEA @ARI (56) CLE (119) Bryan Woo, Luis Castillo Bryce Miller, George Kirby Logan Gilbert (?)
SFG @COL (105) @LAD (29) Robbie Ray, Logan Webb Landen Roupp (x2), Hayden Birdsong Justin Verlander
STL TOR (113) @MIL (91) Matthew Liberatore, Sonny Gray Erick Fedde 페디 Andre Pallante (x2), Miles Mikolas (x2)
TBR @BOS (43) @NYM (88) Drew Rasmussen Ryan Pepiot Shane Baz (x2), Taj Bradley Zack Littell
TEX @MIN (113) CHW (116) Jacob deGrom, Tyler Mahle Nathan Eovaldi (?) Jack Leiter (x2) Patrick Corbin
TOR @STL (108) @PHI (93) Kevin Gausman Chris Bassitt José Berríos (x2), Eric Lauer 라우어, Bowden Francis
WSN @NYM (88) MIA (113) MacKenzie Gore (x2) Jake Irvin, Michael Soroka, Mitchell Parker, Trevor Williams

Ottoneu Drip: Finding Under-rostered Pitchers: June 4, 2025

Credit: Arizona Republic

The search for pitching help is never ending. Between injuries and ineffectiveness, fantasy players are always on the lookout for pitchers who are performing well who can provide some reinforcements. There have been a bunch of unheralded starters compiling strong starts since the calendar rolled over to May. Here are eight who are rostered in less than 60% of all Ottoneu leagues.

Under-rostered Starters, Last 14 Days
Player Team IP FIP K-BB% Stuff+ Pts/IP Roster%
Ryne Nelson ARI 15.2 2.57 10.5% 105 6.39 46.5%
Chad Patrick MIL 15.1 2.23 25.8% 110 6.24 46.2%
Sean Burke CHW 12 2.08 17.4% 94 6.67 38.5%
Chris Paddack MIN 18.2 2.43 18.9% 94 5.81 29.1%
Bailey Falter PIT 19 2.97 4.4% 97 6.14 22.6%
Ryan Yarbrough NYY 17 3.19 31.7% 102 6.03 8.3%
Germán Márquez COL 18 2.02 15.4% 91 5.57 2.1%
Adrian Houser CHW 18.1 2.37 12.9% 92 6.25 1.8%

I covered a couple of guys listed above the last time I ran this column: Chad Patrick and Chris Paddack. They’ve both continued to pitch excellently and what might have been a hot streak has now turned into a solid two months of production. Patrick’s fastball velocity has ticked up as the season has progressed and he’s seen his strikeout rate rise as a knock-on effect. Paddack hasn’t been as good as Patrick but he’s extended his stretch of starts with two or fewer runs allowed to five games now.

Ryne Nelson has gotten an opportunity to start recently as the Diamondbacks have dealt with a number of injuries to their roster. He was probably ticketed for a return to the bullpen with the impending return of Eduardo Rodriguez but Corbin Burnes’s elbow injury should give Nelson an extended look in the rotation. He had a nice stretch of starts during the second half of the season last year — a 3.05 ERA and a 3.14 FIP from the beginning of July through the end of the season — and the hope is that he can replicate that mini-breakout this year. He won’t strikeout that many leaving him at the whim of batted ball luck, but he’s proven he can find success with that profile in the past.

Sean Burke entered the season with a bit of helium thanks to an intriguing cup of coffee last year. He was the White Sox Opening Day starter and he tossed a six-inning scoreless gem in the first game of the year. Things went downhill from there; he allowed 22 runs over his next five starts and both his ERA and FIP were up over six. His next six appearances have been much better to the tune of a 2.73 ERA and a 4.26 FIP. He’s still struggling with his command but he’s managed to navigate the extra traffic. The other thing to note is that the White Sox used an opener in front of Burke in his last appearance. If they continue that trend, you should be aware of the Ottoneu rules surrounding openers/followers: bulk pitchers who come in after an opener only get points if they’re slotted into a RP slot since they’re making a relief appearance.

Bailey Falter has been on an impressive run of starts since the beginning of May; over his last six starts he’s allowed a total of four runs! The underlying peripherals look pretty ugly however as he’s struck out just 19 in 35.2 innings while walking 13. He’s surviving by suppressing every batted ball put in play against him. I wouldn’t trust that he’s going to continue this hot streak.

Ryan Yarbrough has been fantastic since the Yankees moved him to their starting rotation at the start of May. He’s allowed no more than two runs in any of his five starts and has produced a fantastic 4.8 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His changeup and sweeper are both returning whiff rates north of 40% and he’s emphasized his cutter in his pitch mix to keep right-handed batters at bay. One thing to note for Ottoneu players: he’s allowed a home run in four of his five starts which has held him back from truly racking up the points in this format.

If you’re really desperate for some innings, Germán Márquez has looked decent-ish over his last few starts after a particularly ugly start to the season. Even at his peak, his points per innings pitched never crossed over five since his home ballpark is so tough to pitch in. I will note that he’s allowed just four home runs this year and none since May 4.

After bouncing around four teams over the past year, Adrian Houser has caught on with the White Sox this May. His first three starts for Chicago have gone as well as could be expected; he’s allowed a total of three runs while running a decent 2.8 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He’s had spurts of effectiveness in the past while he was with Milwaukee and it’s possible he’s found something that works this year. He’s added a ton of horizontal movement to his changeup and is currently running a 52.9% whiff rate with that pitch. Monitor his performance over the next few weeks and see if that pitch is still as effective once batters have a better scouting report on it.