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Ottoneu Drip: Finding Under-rostered Pitchers: June 4, 2025

Credit: Arizona Republic

The search for pitching help is never ending. Between injuries and ineffectiveness, fantasy players are always on the lookout for pitchers who are performing well who can provide some reinforcements. There have been a bunch of unheralded starters compiling strong starts since the calendar rolled over to May. Here are eight who are rostered in less than 60% of all Ottoneu leagues.

Under-rostered Starters, Last 14 Days
Player Team IP FIP K-BB% Stuff+ Pts/IP Roster%
Ryne Nelson ARI 15.2 2.57 10.5% 105 6.39 46.5%
Chad Patrick MIL 15.1 2.23 25.8% 110 6.24 46.2%
Sean Burke CHW 12 2.08 17.4% 94 6.67 38.5%
Chris Paddack MIN 18.2 2.43 18.9% 94 5.81 29.1%
Bailey Falter PIT 19 2.97 4.4% 97 6.14 22.6%
Ryan Yarbrough NYY 17 3.19 31.7% 102 6.03 8.3%
Germán Márquez COL 18 2.02 15.4% 91 5.57 2.1%
Adrian Houser CHW 18.1 2.37 12.9% 92 6.25 1.8%

I covered a couple of guys listed above the last time I ran this column: Chad Patrick and Chris Paddack. They’ve both continued to pitch excellently and what might have been a hot streak has now turned into a solid two months of production. Patrick’s fastball velocity has ticked up as the season has progressed and he’s seen his strikeout rate rise as a knock-on effect. Paddack hasn’t been as good as Patrick but he’s extended his stretch of starts with two or fewer runs allowed to five games now.

Ryne Nelson has gotten an opportunity to start recently as the Diamondbacks have dealt with a number of injuries to their roster. He was probably ticketed for a return to the bullpen with the impending return of Eduardo Rodriguez but Corbin Burnes’s elbow injury should give Nelson an extended look in the rotation. He had a nice stretch of starts during the second half of the season last year — a 3.05 ERA and a 3.14 FIP from the beginning of July through the end of the season — and the hope is that he can replicate that mini-breakout this year. He won’t strikeout that many leaving him at the whim of batted ball luck, but he’s proven he can find success with that profile in the past.

Sean Burke entered the season with a bit of helium thanks to an intriguing cup of coffee last year. He was the White Sox Opening Day starter and he tossed a six-inning scoreless gem in the first game of the year. Things went downhill from there; he allowed 22 runs over his next five starts and both his ERA and FIP were up over six. His next six appearances have been much better to the tune of a 2.73 ERA and a 4.26 FIP. He’s still struggling with his command but he’s managed to navigate the extra traffic. The other thing to note is that the White Sox used an opener in front of Burke in his last appearance. If they continue that trend, you should be aware of the Ottoneu rules surrounding openers/followers: bulk pitchers who come in after an opener only get points if they’re slotted into a RP slot since they’re making a relief appearance.

Bailey Falter has been on an impressive run of starts since the beginning of May; over his last six starts he’s allowed a total of four runs! The underlying peripherals look pretty ugly however as he’s struck out just 19 in 35.2 innings while walking 13. He’s surviving by suppressing every batted ball put in play against him. I wouldn’t trust that he’s going to continue this hot streak.

Ryan Yarbrough has been fantastic since the Yankees moved him to their starting rotation at the start of May. He’s allowed no more than two runs in any of his five starts and has produced a fantastic 4.8 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His changeup and sweeper are both returning whiff rates north of 40% and he’s emphasized his cutter in his pitch mix to keep right-handed batters at bay. One thing to note for Ottoneu players: he’s allowed a home run in four of his five starts which has held him back from truly racking up the points in this format.

If you’re really desperate for some innings, Germán Márquez has looked decent-ish over his last few starts after a particularly ugly start to the season. Even at his peak, his points per innings pitched never crossed over five since his home ballpark is so tough to pitch in. I will note that he’s allowed just four home runs this year and none since May 4.

After bouncing around four teams over the past year, Adrian Houser has caught on with the White Sox this May. His first three starts for Chicago have gone as well as could be expected; he’s allowed a total of three runs while running a decent 2.8 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He’s had spurts of effectiveness in the past while he was with Milwaukee and it’s possible he’s found something that works this year. He’s added a ton of horizontal movement to his changeup and is currently running a 52.9% whiff rate with that pitch. Monitor his performance over the next few weeks and see if that pitch is still as effective once batters have a better scouting report on it.


Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: June 2–8

Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

June 2–8
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI @ATL (74) @CIN (45) Merrill Kelly 켈리, Corbin Burnes Zac Gallen Ryne Nelson (x2), Brandon Pfaadt
ATH MIN (112) BAL (89) Luis Severino (x2), Jeffrey Springs Gunnar Hoglund, JP Sears Jacob Lopez (x2)
ATL ARI (63) @SFG (155) Chris Sale (x2), Spencer Schwellenbach, Spencer Strider Grant Holmes, Bryce Elder
BAL @SEA (145) @ATH (67) Tomoyuki Sugano (@SEA), Zach Eflin Cade Povich, Charlie Morton, Sugano (@ATH) Dean Kremer
BOS LAA (53) @NYY (57) Garrett Crochet Richard Fitts (x2), Brayan Bello, Lucas Giolito, Walker Buehler
CHC @WSN (100) @DET (144) Matthew Boyd Colin Rea, Ben Brown Cade Horton (x2), Jameson Taillon
CHW DET (84) KCR (112) Shane Smith (x2), Adrian Houser Jonathan Cannon (x2), Davis Martin Sean Burke
CIN MIL (85) ARI (28) Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott Nick Lodolo, Nick Martinez Brady Singer (x2)
CLE @NYY (57) HOU (123) Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams Slade Cecconi, Logan Allen로건 (vHOU) Allen (@NYY), Luis L. Ortiz
COL @MIA (90) NYM (85) Kyle Freeland Germán Márquez (x2), Tanner Gordon, Antonio Senzatela, Ryan Feltner (?)
DET @CHW (115) CHC (57) Jack Flaherty (x2), Tarik Skubal Jackson Jobe (@CHW), Casey Mize Jobe (vCHC) Keider Montero
HOU @PIT (133) @CLE (161) Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown Lance McCullers Jr. (x2) Ryan Gusto, Colton Gordon
KCR @STL (105) @CHW (115) Kris Bubic, Michael Wacha Seth Lugo, Cole Ragans (?) Michael Lorenzen (x2)
LAA @BOS (55) SEA (53) Yusei Kikuchi, José Soriano Tyler Anderson (x2) Kyle Hendricks, Jack Kochanowicz
LAD NYM (108) @STL (105) Yoshinobu Yamamoto Dustin May (x2) Clayton Kershaw, Tony Gonsolin, Landon Knack
MIA COL (165) @TBR (82) Max Meyer, Sandy Alcantara, Ryan Weathers Cal Quantrill, Edward Cabrera, Meyer (@TBR)
MIL @CIN (45) SDP (131) Peralta (@CIN) Quinn Priester Aaron Civale
MIN @ATH (67) TOR (145) Joe Ryan (x2), Pablo López (x2) Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack Zebby Matthews
NYM @LAD (39) @COL (118) David Peterson, Kodai Senga, Clay Holmes Tylor Megill (x2), Griffin Canning Paul Blackburn (?)
NYY CLE (106) BOS (73) Carlos Rodón (x2), Max Fried Clarke Schmidt, Will Warren Ryan Yarbrough
PHI @TOR (115) @PIT (133) Zack Wheeler (x2), Cristopher Sánchez, Jesús Luzardo, Ranger Suárez Taijuan Walker
PIT HOU (112) PHI (60) Paul Skenes Mitch Keller Bailey Falter, Andrew Heaney Mike Burrows (x2)
SDP @SFG (155) @MIL (138) Nick Pivetta, Dylan Cease Stephen Kolek (x2) Kyle Hart 하트 (x2), Randy Vásquez
SEA BAL (141) @LAA (89) Bryan Woo, Luis Castillo George Kirby (x2), Emerson Hancock, Bryce Miller
SFG SDP (167) ATL (124) Logan Webb (x2), Landen Roupp, Robbie Ray Hayden Birdsong Justin Verlander (?)
STL KCR (150) LAD (79) Matthew Liberatore Miles Mikolas, Sonny Gray Andrew Pallante (vKCR), Erick Fedde 페디 Pallante (vLAD)
TBR TEX (136) MIA (60) Drew Rasmussen (x2), Ryan Pepiot Shane Baz Zack Littell, Taj Bradley
TEX @TBR (82) @WSN (100) Nathan Eovaldi (x2), Tyler Mahle, Jacob deGrom Jack Leiter Patrick Corbin
TOR PHI (63) @MIN (145) Kevin Gausman Chris Bassitt Bowden Francis (x2), Eric Lauer 라우어, José Berríos
WSN CHC (41) TEX (162) MacKenzie Gore Mitchell Parker Jake Irvin, Michael Soroka, Trevor Williams (vTEX) Williams (vCHC)

Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: May 26–June 1

Credit: Erik Williams-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

May 26–June 1
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI PIT (160) WSN (121) Corbin Burnes, Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly 켈리 Brandon Pfaadt Ryne Nelson (x2)
ATH @HOU (66) @TOR (72) Luis Severino JP Sears (x2), Jeffrey Springs, Gunnar Hoglund Jacob Lopez
ATL @PHI (41) BOS (79) Chris Sale, Spencer Schwellenbach, Spencer Strider (vBOS) Strider (@PHI) AJ Smith-Shawver, Grant Holmes
BAL STL (95) CHW (163) Zach Eflin Tomoyuki Sugano (vCHW) Sugano (vSTL), Cade Povich, Charlie Morton, Dean Kremer
BOS @MIL (142) @ATL (81) Garrett Crochet (x2) Lucas Giolito, Hunter Dobbins, Walker Buehler Brayan Bello
CHC COL (158) CIN (100) Matthew Boyd Cade Horton, Colin Rea Jameson Taillon (x2), Ben Brown
CHW @NYM (102) @BAL (114) Shane Smith Adrian Houser (x2), Jonathan Cannon, Davis Martin Sean Burke
CIN @KCR (132) @CHC (83) Hunter Greene Nick Martinez (x2), Brady Singer, Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo
CLE LAD (52) LAA (82) Gavin Williams (x2) Tanner Bibee, Luis L. Ortiz, Logan Allen로건 Slade Cecconi
COL @CHC (83) @NYM (102) Kyle Freeland Carson Palmquist (x2), Germán Márquez, Tanner Gordon, Antonio Senzatela
DET SFG (132) @KCR (132) Jack Flaherty, Tarik Skubal Jackson Jobe, Casey Mize Keider Montero (x2)
HOU ATH (93) TBR (135) Hunter Brown (x2), Frambe Valdez Lance McCullers Jr., Ryan Gusto Colton Gordon
KCR CIN (80) DET (59) Kris Bubic Michael Wacha Michael Lorenzen (x2), Noah Cameron Daniel Lynch IV
LAA NYY (12) @CLE (153) José Soriano Yusei Kikuchi Jack Kochanowicz (x2), Tyler Anderson, Kyle Hendricks
LAD @CLE (153) NYY (26) Yoshinobu Yamamoto (x2), Dustin May Clayton Kershaw Tony Gonsolin, Landon Knack
MIA @SDP (100) SFG (111) Ryan Weathers (x2) Max Meyer, Sandy Alcantara, Edward Cabrera Cal Quantrill
MIL BOS (70) @PHI (41) Freddy Peralta Chad Patrick, Aaron Civale, Jose Quintana (?), Logan Henderson Quinn Priester
MIN @TBR (108) @SEA (154) Joe Ryan (x2), Pablo López, Bailey Ober Chris Paddack Zebby Matthews
NYM CHW (160) COL (156) Clay Holmes (x2), David Peterson, Kodai Senga Tylor Megill, Griffin Canning
NYY @LAA (72) @LAD (28) Carlos Rodón, Max Fried Clarke Schmidt, Will Warren Ryan Yarbrough (x2)
PHI ATL (79) MIL (116) Ranger Suárez (x2), Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sánchez, Jesús Luzardo Aaron Nola
PIT @ARI (49) @SDP (100) Paul Skenes Mitch Keller, Andrew Heaney (@SDP) Heaney (@ARI), Bailey Falter Mike Burrows
SDP MIA (108) PIT (160) Nick Pivetta, Michael King, Dylan Cease Randy Vásquez, Yu Darvish (?), Stephen Kolek
SEA WSN (133) MIN (112) George Kirby, Bryan Woo, Luis Castillo Bryce Miller (?) Logan Evans, Emerson Hancock
SFG @DET (80) @MIA (96) Logan Webb, Robbie Ray Landen Roupp Hayden Birdsong (x2), Kyle Harrison
STL @BAL (114) @TEX (127) Matthew Liberatore, Sonny Gray Erick Fedde 페디 (x2) Andre Pallante, Miles Mikolas
TBR MIN (79) @HOU (66) Drew Rasmussen, Shane Baz, Ryan Pepiot Zack Littell (x2), Taj Bradley (x2)
TEX TOR (81) STL (72) Jacob deGrom (x2), Nathan Eovaldi, Tyler Mahle Jack Leiter Patrick Corbin
TOR @TEX (127) ATH (93) Kevin Gausman (x2) Chris Bassitt Bowden Francis (x2), Eric Lauer 라우어 (?), José Berríos
WSN @SEA (154) @ARI (49) MacKenzie Gore Mitchell Parker (@SEA) Trevor Williams, Jake Irvin, Michael Soroka, Parker (@ARI)

Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: May 19–25

Credit: D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

May 19–25
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI @LAD (33) @STL (89) Zac Gallen Corbin Burnes, Merrill Kelly 켈리, Brandon Pfaadt (@STL) Pfaadt (@LAD) Eduardo Rodriguez
ATH LAA (127) PHI (66) JP Sears, Luis Severino Gunnar Hoglund, Jeffrey Springs Osvaldo Bido (x2), J.T. Ginn (?)
ATL @WSN (116) SDP (86) Chris Sale, Spencer Schwellenbach Spencer Strider (?), AJ Smith-Shawver Grant Holmes
BAL @MIL (164) @BOS (72) Zach Eflin Dean Kremer (x2), Tomoyuki Sugano (x2), Cade Povich Kyle Gibson
BOS NYM (40) BAL (130) Garrett Crochet Lucas Giolito, Walker Buehler (vBAL) Hunter Dobbins (x2), Buehler (vNYM), Brayan Bello
CHC @MIA (134) @CIN (117) Ben Brown (x2), Matthew Boyd, Colin Rea Jameson Taillon, Cade Horton
CHW SEA (72) TEX (99) Shane Smith Davis Martin (x2) Bryse Wilson, Sean Burke, Jonathan Cannon
CIN @PIT (169) CHC (46) Nick Lodolo (@PIT), Nick Martinez, Brady Singer Andrew Abbott, Lodolo (vCHC) Hunter Greene (?)
CLE @MIN (113) @DET (71) Gavin Williams (x2) Tanner Bibee Logan Allen로건 (x2), Luis L. Ortiz Kolby Allard
COL PHI (56) NYY (10) Kyle Freeland (x2), Antonio Senzatela (x2), Carson Palmquist (?), Germán Márquez, Chase Dollander
DET @STL (89) CLE (114) Tarik Skubal (x2), Jack Flaherty, Reese Olson Jackson Jobe, Casey Mize (?) Keider Montero
HOU @TBR (140) SEA (96) Framber Valdez (x2), Hunter Brown Lance McCullers Jr., Ronel Blanco, Ryan Gusto Colton Gordon (x2)
KCR @SFG (130) @MIN (113) Kris Bubic (x2), Cole Ragans, Michael Wacha Seth Lugo Michael Lorenzen
LAA @ATH (71) MIA (104) José Soriano (vMIA) Soriano (@ATH), Yusei Kikuchi Tyler Anderson Kyle Hendricks (x2), Jack Kochanowicz
LAD ARI (52) @NYM (79) Yoshinobu Yamamoto Dustin May, Clayton Kershaw, Tony Gonsolin Landon Knack (x2)
MIA CHC (78) @LAA (118) Ryan Weathers, Max Meyer, Sandy Alcantara Edward Cabrera Cal Quantrill (x2)
MIL BAL (135) @PIT (169) Freddy Peralta Logan Henderson, Chad Patrick Quinn Priester (x2), Aaron Civale (?), Tobias Myers
MIN CLE (96) KCR (116) Bailey Ober (x2), Joe Ryan, Pablo López Chris Paddack Zebby Matthews
NYM @BOS (72) LAD (74) Kodai Senga (x2), Clay Holmes Tylor Megill, David Peterson Griffin Canning
NYY TEX (105) @COL (100) Will Warren (vTEX), Carlos Rodón, Max Fried Clarke Schmidt, Warren (@COL) Ryan Yarbrough
PHI @COL (100) @ATH (71) Jesús Luzardo (x2), Ranger Suárez, Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sánchez Aaron Nola (x2)
PIT CIN (118) MIL (145) Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller (vMIL) Keller (vCIN), Andrew Heaney Bailey Falter Carmen Mlodzinski
SDP @TOR (84) @ATL (123) Dylan Cease (x2), Nick Pivetta, Michael King Stephen Kolek Randy Vásquez
SEA @CHW (150) @HOU (77) Bryan Woo (x2), Luis Castillo (@CHW) George Kirby (?), Castillo (@HOU) Emerson Hancock Logan Evans
SFG KCR (143) @WSN (116) Logan Webb Robbie Ray (x2), Jordan Hicks Landen Roupp, Justin Verlander
STL DET (74) ARI (82) Sonny Gray Matthew Liberatore Erick Fedde 페디 (x2), Andre Pallante, Miles Mikolas
TBR HOU (94) TOR (82) Drew Rasmussen Ryan Pepiot (x2), Taj Bradley, Shane Baz Zack Littell
TEX @NYY (32) @CHW (150) Nathan Eovaldi, Tyler Mahle, Jack Leiter Jacob deGrom Patrick Corbin (@CHW) Corbin (@NYY)
TOR SDP (91) @TBR (140) Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt (@TBR) Bassitt (vSDP), José Berríos Bowden Francis José Ureña
WSN ATL (157) SFG (111) MacKenzie Gore Mitchell Parker (x2), Jake Irvin, Michael Soroka Trevor Williams

Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: May 12–18

Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

May 12–18
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI @SFG (134) COL (163) Brandon Pfaadt, Corbin Burnes, Zac Gallen Merrill Kelly 켈리 (x2), Eduardo Rodriguez
ATH @LAD (27) @SFG (134) Luis Severino JP Sears, Jeffrey Springs (@SFG) Gunnar Hoglund Springs (@LAD), Osvaldo Bido
ATL WSN (107) @BOS (46) Spencer Schwellenbach (x2), Chris Sale AJ Smith-Shawver Grant Holmes (x2), Bryce Elder
BAL MIN (115) WSN (123) Zach Eflin Cade Povich (x2), Dean Kremer, Tomoyuki Sugano Kyle Gibson
BOS @DET (64) ATL (93) Garrett Crochet Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, Walker Buehler (?), Lucas Giolito
CHC MIA (132) CHW (140) Colin Rea (x2), Matthew Boyd Ben Brown, Jameson Taillon, Cade Horton
CHW @CIN (92) @CHC (106) Shane Smith Jonathan Cannon (x2), Davis Martin, Bryse Wilson, Sean Burke
CIN CHW (92) CLE (49) Nick Lodolo, Nick Martinez Brady Singer, Andrew Abbott Chase Petty (?)
CLE MIL (122) @CIN (92) Ben Lively 라이블리 (vMIL), Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee Logan Allen로건, Luis L. Ortiz, Lively (@CIN)
COL @TEX (129) @ARI (81) Kyle Freeland, Ryan Feltner Chase Dollander (x2), Antonio Senzatela, Germán Márquez
DET BOS (79) @TOR (117) Tarik Skubal, Jack Flaherty, Reese Olson Casey Mize Jackson Jobe (x2)
HOU KCR (91) @TEX (129) Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown Hayden Wesneski (x2), Ryan Gusto, Lance McCullers Jr., Ronel Blanco
KCR @HOU (102) STL (86) Michael Wacha (x2), Kris Bubic, Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo Michael Lorenzen
LAA @SDP (110) @LAD (27) Yusei Kikuchi (@SDP), José Soriano Kikuchi (@LAD) Kyle Hendricks, Jack Kochanowicz, Tyler Anderson
LAD ATH (59) LAA (123) Yoshinobu Yamamoto Tony Gonsolin (x2), Dustin May, Ben Casparius (F) Roki Sasaki
MIA @CHC (106) TBR (144) Max Meyer, Sandy Alcantara Edward Cabrera Cal Quantrill, Valente Bellozo, Ryan Weathers (?)
MIL @CLE (137) MIN (90) Freddy Peralta Jose Quintana Chad Patrick (x2), Quinn Priester, Tobias Myers
MIN @BAL (128) @MIL (137) Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan, Pablo López Simeon Woods Richardson (x2), Chris Paddack
NYM PIT (168) @NYY (32) David Peterson (vPIT), Kodai Senga, Clay Holmes Tylor Megill, Peterson (@NYY) Griffin Canning
NYY @SEA (95) NYM (32) Max Fried (x2) Will Warren, Carlos Rodón, Clarke Schmidt Ryan Yarbrough
PHI STL (81) PIT (146) Cristopher Sánchez (x2), Jesús Luzardo, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suárez, Zack Wheeler
PIT @NYM (78) @PHI (43) Paul Skenes (x2) Mitch Keller, Andrew Heaney Bailey Falter Carmen Mlodzinski
SDP LAA (138) SEA (50) Michael King (x2), Dylan Cease Nick Pivetta Randy Vásquez Stephen Kolek
SEA NYY (68) @SDP (110) Bryan Woo, Bryce Miller Luis Castillo Emerson Hancock (x2) Logan Evans
SFG ARI (110) ATH (91) Logan Webb Robbie Ray, Jordan Hicks, Landen Roupp Justin Verlander (x2)
STL @PHI (43) @KCR (96) Matthew Liberatore (x2), Sonny Gray Erick Fedde 페디, Andre Pallante, Miles Mikolas
TBR @TOR (117) @MIA (124) Shane Baz (x2), Drew Rasmussen Ryan Pepiot, Taj Bradley Zack Littell
TEX COL (148) HOU (97) Tyler Mahle (x2), Jack Leiter (vCOL), Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi Leiter (vHOU) Patrick Corbin
TOR TBR (151) DET (53) Chris Bassitt, Kevin Gausman José Berríos (vTBR) Bowden Francis, Berríos (vDET) José Ureña
WSN @ATL (90) @BAL (128) MacKenzie Gore Jake Irvin (x2), Michael Soroka (x2), Mitchell Parker, Trevor Williams

Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: May 5–11

Credit: Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

May 5–11
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI NYM (71) LAD (71) Corbin Burnes (x2), Zac Gallen (x2), Brandon Pfaadt Merrill Kelly 켈리, Eduardo Rodriguez
ATH SEA (14) NYY (28) Luis Severino (x2) Jeffrey Springs, Osvaldo Bido, JP Sears Gunnar Hoglund (?)
ATL CIN (46) @PIT (123) Chris Sale (x2), Spencer Schwellenbach AJ Smith-Shawver (@PIT) Smith-Shawver (vCIN), Grant Holmes Bryce Elder
BAL @MIN (88) @LAA (137) Cade Povich (x2), Dean Kremer, Tomoyuki Sugano, Kyle Gibson, Brandon Young (?)
BOS TEX (116) @KCR (143) Garrett Crochet Walker Buehler, Brayan Bello, Lucas Giolito (@KCR) Giolito (vTEX), Tanner Houck
CHC SFG (144) @NYM (88) Matthew Boyd (x2), Colin Rea, Shota Imanaga Ben Brown, Jameson Taillon
CHW @KCR (143) MIA (90) Shane Smith (x2) Davis Martin Sean Burke (x2), Jonathan Cannon, Bryse Wilson
CIN @ATL (57) @HOU (116) Hunter Greene Brady Singer (x2), Nick Lodolo, Nick Martinez Andrew Abbott (x2)
CLE @WSN (99) PHI (112) Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee Luis L. Ortiz (x2), Ben Lively 라이블리, Logan Allen로건
COL DET (61) SDP (96) Chase Dollander (x2), Kyle Freeland, Antonio Senzatela, Ryan Feltner, Germán Márquez
DET @COL (108) TEX (150) Jack Flaherty, Reese Olson Tarik Skubal, Jackson Jobe (vTEX) Jobe (@COL), Casey Mize
HOU @MIL (115) CIN (50) Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown Ronel Blanco (x2), Hayden Wesneski Lance McCullers Jr.
KCR CHW (131) BOS (51) Cole Ragans (x2), Seth Lugo (vCHW), Michael Wacha, Kris Bubic Lugo (vBOS) Michael Lorenzen
LAA TOR (141) BAL (120) Yusei Kikuchi, Jose Soriano Tyler Anderson (x2) Kyle Hendricks, Jack Kochanowicz
LAD @MIA (103) @ARI (90) Yoshinobu Yamamoto Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May Ben Casparius (?), Roki Sasaki Landon Knack (?)
MIA LAD (58) @CHW (137) Max Meyer Sandy Alcantara (@CHW) Alcantara (vLAD), Edward Cabrera Cal Quantrill, Valente Bellozo (?)
MIL @HOU (116) @TBR (117) Freddy Peralta Jose Quintana Brandon Woodruff (?), Quinn Priester Tobias Myers (x2)
MIN BAL (146) SFG (127) Pablo López (x2), Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober Simeon Woods Richardson Chris Paddack
NYM @ARI (90) CHC (67) Kodai Senga, Clay Holmes David Peterson (@ARI), Tylor Megill Griffin Canning, Peterson (vCHC)
NYY SDP (115) @ATH (75) Max Fried Carlos Rodón (vSDP) Clarke Schmidt, Will Warren, Rodón (@ATH) Carlos Carrasco
PHI @TBR (117) @CLE (159) Zack Wheeler (x2), Cristopher Sánchez, Jesús Luzardo, Aaron Nola Ranger Suárez
PIT @STL (109) ATL (92) Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller Andrew Heaney Bailey Falter Carmen Mlodzinski (x2)
SDP @NYY (33) @COL (108) Michael King (@NYY), Dylan Cease Nick Pivetta, King (@COL) Stephen Kolek (?), Randy Vásquez
SEA @ATH (75) TOR (188) Bryan Woo, Luis Castillo, Bryce Miller (vTOR) Miller (@ATH) Emerson Hancock, Logan Evans
SFG @CHC (95) @MIN (88) Logan Webb Landen Roupp (x2), Jordan Hicks Justin Verlander, Robbie Ray
STL PIT (127) @WSN (99) Matthew Liberatore, Sonny Gray Miles Mikolas (x2), Steven Matz, Erick Fedde 페디, Andre Pallante
TBR PHI (86) MIL (72) Drew Rasmussen (x2), Shane Baz Ryan Pepiot, Taj Bradley Zack Littell
TEX @BOS (46) @DET (98) Nathan Eovaldi (x2), Tyler Mahle, Jacob deGrom Jack Leiter Patrick Corbin
TOR @LAA (137) @SEA (99) Chris Bassitt, Kevin Gausman José Berríos (x2), Bowden Francis Eric Lauer 라우어 (?)
WSN CLE (109) STL (118) MacKenzie Gore Mitchell Parker Jake Irvin, Brad Lord, Trevor Williams Michael Soroka (?)

A few general schedule notes:

  • Now that we’ve reached May, I’m starting to use in-season data to calculate opponent strength.
  • The Athletics have a beast of a schedule next week; not only are they playing two of the hottest offenses in baseball, they’re playing in their tiny bandbox in Sacramento. Those games should be extremely high scoring affairs. The Padres also have to face the Yankees next week, in New York to boot, but San Diego then gets to travel to Colorado. The Diamondbacks just barely avoid the double red tags, but I’d still avoid their starters against the Mets and Dodgers.
  • No team has a double green week, but the Twins get close with series against the struggling Orioles and the Giants at home.

Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: April 28–May 4

Credit: Eakin Howard-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. To start the season, I’ll be relying on projected team wOBA until there’s sufficient in-season data to start calculating these matchup ratings. I should also note that the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year currently have neutral park factors in my calculations, though both should play like hitters parks (those series are marked in yellow below).

April 28–May 4
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI @NYM (72) @PHI (81) Corbin Burnes, Zac Gallen, Eduardo Rodriguez (x2), Brandon Pfaadt Merrill Kelly 켈리
ATH @TEX (98) @MIA (106) J.T. Ginn (x2), Luis Severino, Osvaldo Bido JP Sears (x2), Jeffrey Springs
ATL @COL (121) LAD (78) Spencer Schwellenbach Chris Sale, Grant Holmes AJ Smith-Shawver (x2), Bryce Elder
BAL NYY (81) KCR (147) Tomoyuki Sugano (x2), Cade Povich, Kyle Gibson (?), Charlie Morton, Dean Kremer
BOS @TOR (122) MIN (95) Garrett Crochet (x2) Walker Buehler Tanner Houck, Lucas Giolito (?), Brayan Bello
CHC @PIT (130) @MIL (115) Shota Imanaga (x2), Matthew Boyd Colin Rea Ben Brown, Jameson Taillon
CHW MIL (105) HOU (62) Shane Smith Bryse Wilson (x2), Sean Burke, Jonathan Cannon, Davis Martin
CIN STL (94) WSN (112) Brady Singer (x2), Hunter Greene Nick Martinez (x2), Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo
CLE MIN (121) @TOR (122) Tanner Bibee (x2), Gavin Williams Ben Lively 라이블리 Luis L. Ortiz (x2), Logan Allen로건
COL ATL (16) @SFG (145) Kyle Freeland, Ryan Feltner Tanner Gordon (?), Germán Márquez, Chase Dollander, Antonio Senzatela
DET @HOU (86) @LAA (107) Jack Flaherty (x2), Reese Olson (x2), Tarik Skubal Casey Mize, Jackson Jobe
HOU DET (156) @CHW (146) Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown Ronel Blanco, Ryan Gusto, Hayden Wesneski Lance McCullers Jr. (?)
KCR @TBR (96) @BAL (97) Cole Ragans (?), Kris Bubic Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha Michael Lorenzen
LAA @SEA (120) DET (128) Yusei Kikuchi, José Soriano Jack Kochanowicz (x2), Tyler Anderson, Kyle Hendricks
LAD MIA (104) @ATL (46) Dustin May, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow Tony Gonsolin (?), Roki Sasaki
MIA @LAD (72) ATH (83) Max Meyer Sandy Alcantara Edward Cabrera (x2), Cal Quantrill, Connor Gillispie
MIL @CHW (146) CHC (56) Freddy Peralta (@CHW) Tobias Myers, Peralta (vCHC) Chad Patrick, Quinn Priester, Jose Quintana
MIN @CLE (128) @BOS (63) Bailey Ober (@CLE), Pablo López, Joe Ryan Ober (@BOS) Chris Paddack (x2), Simeon Woods Richardson
NYM ARI (86) @STL (147) Kodai Senga, Clay Holmes, Tylor Megill Griffin Canning (x2), David Peterson (x2)
NYY @BAL (97) TBR (84) Max Fried Carlos Rodón, Clarke Schmidt Will Warren (x2), Carlos Carrasco
PHI WSN (136) ARI (60) Cristopher Sánchez (?), Zack Wheeler, Jesús Luzardo Taijuan Walker, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suárez (?)
PIT CHC (66) SDP (107) Paul Skenes Andrew Heaney (x2), Mitch Keller Bailey Falter Carmen Mlodzinski
SDP SFG (124) @PIT (130) Nick Pivetta, Michael King, Dylan Cease Kyle Hart 하트, Randy Vásquez
SEA LAA (154) @TEX (98) Bryan Woo, Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo, Bryce Miller Emerson Hancock
SFG @SDP (113) COL (179) Logan Webb (x2), Landen Roupp, Justin Verlander, Robbie Ray, Jordan Hicks
STL @CIN (30) NYM (76) Sonny Gray Matthew Liberatore Steven Matz (x2), Andre Pallante, Miles Mikolas, Erick Fedde 페디
TBR KCR (128) @NYY (50) Drew Rasmussen, Shane Baz Taj Bradley (vKCR), Ryan Pepiot Bradley (@NYY) Zack Littell
TEX ATH (80) SEA (89) Jacob deGrom (x2), Nathan Eovaldi, Tyler Mahle Jack Leiter (?) Kumar Rocker (x2)
TOR BOS (81) CLE (120) Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt Bowden Francis (x2), José Berríos Paxton Schultz (?)
WSN @PHI (81) @CIN (30) MacKenzie Gore (x2) Jake Irvin, Brad Lord, Mitchell Parker Trevor Williams (x2)

A few general schedule notes:

  • They’re not marked in red above, but I’d be weary of starting anyone from the Braves or Diamondbacks next week. Atlanta travels to Colorado which makes Chris Sale’s scheduled start a big risk and then the team returns home to host the Dodgers. Meanwhile, Arizona heads out on an East Coast road trip through New York and Philadelphia and neither Corbin Burnes or Zac Gallen have been all that impressive to start this season.
  • The Astros look to be the only team with a pair of easier matchups next week, at home against the Tigers and on the road against the White Sox. Ronel Blanco could be lined up for a double-start week but that could be in flux if Houston decides to activate Lance McCullers Jr. next weekend.

Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: April 21–27

Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. To start the season, I’ll be relying on projected team wOBA until there’s sufficient in-season data to start calculating these matchup ratings. I should also note that the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year currently have neutral park factors in my calculations, though both should play like hitters parks (those series are marked in yellow below).

April 21–27
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI TBR (85) ATL (44) Corbin Burnes, Zac Gallen Brandon Pfaadt (vTBR), Eduardo Rodriguez Merrill Kelly 켈리, Pfaadt (vATL)
ATH TEX (93) CHW (154) Luis Severino, Jeffrey Springs Osvaldo Bido (x2) JP Sears, J.T. Ginn
ATL STL (95) @ARI (59) Spencer Schwellenbach (x2), Spencer Strider, Chris Sale Grant Holmes Bryce Elder
BAL @WSN (128) @DET (142) Cade Povich, Charlie Morton Dean Kremer (x2), Tomoyuki Sugano, Brandon Young (?)
BOS SEA (96) @CLE (127) Walker Buehler (vCHW), Garrett Crochet Buehler (@CLE) Brayan Bello (?), Tanner Houck Sean Newcomb
CHC LAD (71) PHI (107) Shota Imanaga, Matthew Boyd Ben Brown, Jameson Taillon Colin Rea
CHW @MIN (115) @ATH (87) Shane Smith Martín Pérez Jonathan Cannon (x2), Davis Martin (x2), Sean Burke
CIN @MIA (115) @COL (104) Brady Singer Nick Martinez (@MIA) Andrew Abbott, Hunter Greene Nick Lodolo, Martinez (@COL)
CLE NYY (63) BOS (82) Gavin Williams (x2), Tanner Bibee Luis L. Ortiz, Ben Lively 라이블리, Logan Allen로건
COL @KCR (114) CIN (82) Ryan Feltner (x2), Germán Márquez, Chase Dollander Kyle Freeland, Antonio Senzatela
DET SDP (102) BAL (116) Jack Flaherty, Tarik Skubal Reese Olson, Casey Mize Jackson Jobe Keider Montero
HOU TOR (103) @KCR (114) Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez Ronel Blanco, Ryan Gusto, Lance McCullers Jr. (?), Hayden Wesneski
KCR COL (129) HOU (93) Kris Bubic (x2), Cole Ragans Michael Lorenzen, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha
LAA PIT (121) @MIN (115) José Soriano (x2) Yusei Kikuchi Jack Kochanowicz, Tyler Anderson, Kyle Hendricks
LAD @CHC (92) PIT (136) Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow Dustin May, Roki Sasaki
MIA CIN (107) @SEA (130) Max Meyer (x2), Sandy Alcantara Edward Cabrera Cal Quantrill, Connor Gillispie
MIL @SFG (122) @STL (115) Freddy Peralta Quinn Priester (x2), Jose Quintana (x2) Tobias Myers (?) Chad Patrick
MIN CHW (158) LAA (67) Bailey Ober, David Festa Joe Ryan, Pablo López (?) Chris Paddack, Simeon Woods Richardson
NYM PHI (105) @WSN (128) Kodai Senga, Clay Holmes Tylor Megill (x2), David Peterson Griffin Canning
NYY @CLE (127) TOR (87) Max Fried Clarke Schmidt (x2), Will Warren, Carlos Rodón Carlos Carrasco
PHI @NYM (84) @CHC (92) Cristopher Sánchez, Zack Wheeler, Jesús Luzardo Aaron Nola (x2) Ranger Suárez (?)
PIT @LAA (42) @LAD (48) Paul Skenes Andrew Heaney, Mitch Keller Bailey Falter (x2) Carmen Mlodzinski
SDP @DET (142) TBR (84) Nick Pivetta, Michael King, Dylan Cease Randy Vásquez (x2), Kyle Hart 하트
SEA @BOS (58) MIA (141) Bryce Miller (x2), Bryan Woo, Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo Emerson Hancock
SFG MIL (130) TEX (119) Logan Webb Robbie Ray (x2), Landen Roupp Jordan Hicks (x2), Justin Verlander
STL @ATL (36) MIL (124) Sonny Gray Matthew Liberatore Erick Fedde 페디, Steven Matz, Andre Pallante, Miles Mikolas
TBR @ARI (59) @SDP (90) Drew Rasmussen, Shane Baz Taj Bradley, Ryan Pepiot Zack Littell (x2)
TEX @ATH (87) @SFG (122) Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, Tyler Mahle Jack Leiter (?) Kumar Rocker Patrick Corbin
TOR @HOU (100) @NYY (40) Chris Bassitt Kevin Gausman (x2) Bowden Francis, José Berríos Easton Lucas
WSN BAL (103) NYM (73) MacKenzie Gore Mitchell Parker (x2), Trevor Williams, Jake Irvin Michael Soroka (?)

A few general schedule notes:

  • The Dodgers and Cubs gain an extra day off next week to offset their early start in Japan in March. That means they’ll only play five games, though the Dodgers will need to call up a spot starter anyway after Bobby Miller was optioned after his own spot start on Thursday. Roster Resource has Matt Sauer listed as the starter on Wednesday but it’s possible Los Angeles will activate Tony Gonsolin for that start instead.
  • After spending most of the month rehabbing, we’ll probably see the season debuts of Ranger Suárez, Brayan Bello, Tobias Myers, and Lance McCullers Jr. (!) next week and Jack Leiter and Pablo López are on track to be activated from their short stints on the IL too.

Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: April 14–20

Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. To start the season, I’ll be relying on projected team wOBA until there’s sufficient in-season data to start calculating these matchup ratings. I should also note that the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year currently have neutral park factors in my calculations, though both should play like hitters parks (those series are marked in yellow below).

April 14–20
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI @MIA (135) @CHC (87) Brandon Pfaadt, Corbin Burnes, Zac Gallen Merrill Kelly 켈리 (@MIA), Eduardo Rodriguez Kelly (@CHC)
ATH @CHW (138) @MIL (96) Jeffrey Springs (x2) Osvaldo Bido, JP Sears, Luis Severino Mitch Spence
ATL @TOR (96) MIN (127) Spencer Schwellenbach, Chris Sale Grant Holmes (x2), Spencer Strider (?) AJ Smith-Shawver
BAL CLE (139) CIN (139) Cade Povich, Charlie Morton Dean Kremer (x2), Tomoyuki Sugano
BOS @TBR (100) CHW (144) Garrett Crochet, Tanner Houck (vCHW) Houck (@TBR), Walker Buehler, Richard Fitts Sean Newcomb
CHC @SDP (92) ARI (71) Shota Imanaga Matthew Boyd Jameson Taillon (x2), Ben Brown Colin Rea
CHW ATH (82) @BOS (53) Shane Smith Sean Burke (x2), Jonathan Cannon, Davis Martin, Martín Pérez
CIN SEA (104) @BAL (101) Brady Singer, Hunter Greene Nick Lodolo (x2), Nick Martinez Andrew Abbott (?)
CLE @BAL (101) @PIT (156) Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee Ben Lively 라이블리 Logan Allen로건 (x2), Luis L. Ortiz
COL @LAD (46) WSN (86) Ryan Feltner, Germán Márquez, Chase Dollander Antonio Senzatela (x2), Kyle Freeland
DET @MIL (96) KCR (136) Tarik Skubal (x2), Jack Flaherty (x2), Reese Olson, Casey Mize Jackson Jobe
HOU @STL (112) SDP (90) Framber Valdez (x2), Hunter Brown Ronel Blanco Hayden Wesneski Ryan Gusto
KCR @NYY (36) @DET (125) Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo (@DET) Lugo (@NYY), Kris Bubic, Michael Wacha (@DET) Wacha (@NYY), Michael Lorenzen
LAA @TEX (97) SFG (104) José Soriano Yusei Kikuchi (x2) Jack Kochanowicz, Kyle Hendricks Tyler Anderson
LAD COL (128) @TEX (97) Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow Dustin May (x2) Landon Knack, Roki Sasaki
MIA ARI (49) @PHI (40) Max Meyer (x2), Sandy Alcantara Cal Quantrill, Edward Cabrera (?), Connor Gillispie
MIL DET (96) ATH (92) Freddy Peralta Quinn Priester, Jose Quintana (?) Tyler Alexander (x2), Chad Patrick
MIN NYM (92) @ATL (84) Joe Ryan (x2) Bailey Ober David Festa, Chris Paddack, Simeon Woods Richardson
NYM @MIN (130) STL (108) Clay Holmes (x2), Tylor Megill (x2), Kodai Senga David Peterson Griffin Canning
NYY KCR (104) @TBR (100) Max Fried (x2) Carlos Rodón Clarke Schmidt (?), Marcus Stroman, Will Warren
PHI SFG (119) MIA (130) Jesús Luzardo (x2), Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sánchez, Zack Wheeler Taijuan Walker (x2)
PIT WSN (118) CLE (122) Paul Skenes (x2) Mitch Keller (x2), Andrew Heaney Bailey Falter, Carmen Mlodzinski
SDP CHC (76) @HOU (130) Dylan Cease (x2), Nick Pivetta, Michael King Randy Vásquez, Kyle Hart 하트
SEA @CIN (88) @TOR (96) Luis Castillo (x2), Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo, Logan Gilbert Casey Lawrence (?)
SFG @PHI (40) @LAA (75) Logan Webb Robbie Ray, Jordan Hicks, Landen Roupp (@LAA) Roupp (@PHI), Justin Verlander (x2)
STL HOU (146) @NYM (105) Sonny Gray (x2) Erick Fedde 페디 (x2), Steven Matz (?), Andre Pallante, Miles Mikolas, Matthew Liberatore
TBR BOS (66) NYY (48) Ryan Pepiot (x2), Drew Rasmussen, Shane Baz Zack Littell (x2), Taj Bradley
TEX LAA (91) LAD (45) Tyler Mahle, Jack Leiter (?), Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi Kumar Rocker Patrick Corbin (x2)
TOR ATL (89) SEA (142) Kevin Gausman (x2) Chris Bassitt, Bowden Francis, José Berríos Easton Lucas
WSN @PIT (156) @COL (104) Jake Irvin (@PIT), Mitchell Parker Trevor Williams, MacKenzie Gore Brad Lord (x2), Irvin (@COL)

A few general schedule notes:

  • The Orioles are the only team with two easier matchups next week, but unfortunately, their rotation is a bit up in the air with the injury to Zack Eflin. I don’t really trust any of their other starters, even against weaker opponents at home.
  • The two Florida teams pull some pretty tough opponents next week. The Marlins host the Diamondbacks and then head to Philadelphia while the Rays host the Red Sox and Yankees. It’s still too early to put much stock in the early park factors for George M. Steinbrenner Field, but Statcast lists its current park factor as 92, though I wonder if that’s more to do with the weather than the actual park dimensions.

Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: April 7–13

Credit: Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. To start the season, I’ll be relying on projected team wOBA until there’s sufficient in-season data to start calculating these matchup ratings. I should also note that the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year currently have neutral park factors in my calculations, though both should play like hitters parks (those series are marked in yellow below).

April 7–13
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI BAL (66) MIL (125) Zac Gallen (x2), Corbin Burnes Merrill Kelly 켈리, Brandon Pfaadt, Eduardo Rodriguez
ATH SDP (100) NYM (40) Luis Severino (x2), Jeffrey Springs Osvaldo Bido, JP Sears Joey Estes
ATL PHI (45) @TBR (104) Chris Sale (x2), Spencer Schwellenbach AJ Smith-Shawver, Grant Holmes Bryce Elder
BAL @ARI (70) TOR (97) Zach Eflin (x2) Charlie Morton, Dean Kremer, Tomoyuki Sugano, Cade Povich
BOS TOR (67) @CHW (138) Garrett Crochet (x2), Tanner Houck (@CHW) Houck (vTOR) Walker Buehler, Richard Fitts, Sean Newcomb
CHC TEX (84) @LAD (31) Shota Imanaga Justin Steele (x2) Jameson Taillon, Matthew Boyd Ben Brown
CHW @CLE (134) BOS (40) Sean Burke Shane Smith (x2), Jonathan Cannon, Davis Martin, Martín Pérez
CIN @SFG (165) PIT (108) Hunter Greene (x2), Nick Martinez Nick Lodolo, Brady Singer Andrew Abbott (?)
CLE CHW (168) KCR (96) Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee Ben Lively 라이블리 Logan Allen로건 (x2), Luis L. Ortiz
COL MIL (89) @SDP (107) Germán Márquez Kyle Freeland (x2), Antonio Senzatela, Ryan Feltner, Bradley Blalock
DET NYY (77) @MIN (99) Tarik Skubal Casey Mize (x2), Jack Flaherty, Reese Olson Jackson Jobe
HOU @SEA (161) LAA (101) Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown Spencer Arrighetti, Ronel Blanco Hayden Wesneski (x2)
KCR MIN (94) @CLE (134) Cole Ragans (x2), Seth Lugo Michael Wacha, Kris Bubic Michael Lorenzen (x2)
LAA @TBR (104) @HOU (84) Yusei Kikuchi, José Soriano Tyler Anderson Kyle Hendricks (x2), Jack Kochanowicz
LAD @WSN (148) CHC (82) Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow Dustin May (x2), Roki Sasaki
MIA @NYM (56) WSN (139) Sandy Alcantara Max Meyer Connor Gillispie (x2), Tyler Phillips, Cal Quantrill
MIL @COL (111) @ARI (70) Freddy Peralta (@ARI) Peralta (@COL), Jose Quintana (?) Nestor Cortes, Elvin Rodriguez, Chad Patrick
MIN @KCR (81) DET (150) Pablo López (x2), Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober Simeon Woods Richardson (x2) Chris Paddack
NYM MIA (167) @ATH (117) Kodai Senga (x2), Clay Holmes, Tylor Megill David Peterson Griffin Canning
NYY @DET (166) SFG (128) Max Fried Carlos Rodón (x2) Carlos Carrasco, Marcus Stroman, Will Warren
PHI @ATL (36) @STL (137) Zack Wheeler (x2), Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sánchez Jesús Luzardo Taijuan Walker
PIT STL (119) @CIN (49) Paul Skenes Mitch Keller Carmen Mlodzinski (x2), Bailey Falter, Andrew Heaney
SDP @ATH (117) COL (146) Michael King (x2), Dylan Cease, Nick Pivetta Kyle Hart 하트 Randy Vásquez
SEA HOU (101) TEX (88) Logan Gilbert (x2), Luis Castillo, Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo Luis F. Castillo (?)
SFG CIN (105) @NYY (47) Logan Webb (vCIN) Jordan Hicks, Webb (@NYY) Landen Roupp, Justin Verlander, Robbie Ray
STL @PIT (140) PHI (65) Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde 페디 Matthew Liberatore (@PIT), Andre Pallante, Miles Mikolas Liberatore (vPHI)
TBR LAA (96) ATL (36) Shane Baz (vLAA), Ryan Pepiot Zack Littell, Taj Bradley, Drew Rasmussen, Baz (vATL)
TEX @CHC (105) @SEA (161) Nathan Eovaldi (x2), Jacob deGrom Jack Leiter Tyler Mahle, Kumar Rocker
TOR @BOS (46) @BAL (76) Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, Bowden Francis José Berríos (x2) Easton Lucas (x2)
WSN LAD (41) @MIA (148) Mitchell Parker MacKenzie Gore, Trevor Williams (@MIA) Williams (vLAD), Jake Irvin, Michael Soroka

A few general schedule notes:

  • The toughest schedule next week might belong to the Brewers who travel to the thin air of Colorado and then to Arizona to face the potent D-Backs lineup. Their rotation is a mess anyway with Freddy Peralta and Nestor Cortes essentially the only two pitchers you’d even consider starting, and luckily enough, they’re both scheduled to pitch in Coors Field next week.
  • There isn’t a single team with two great matchups next week, though the Yankees come close with a series in Detroit and then a home series against the Giants.