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Archive for Strategy

Astros Prospects in 2012 and Beyond: Prospect Chatter

You might remember that I’d previously promised a more in-depth look at the Houston Astros’ minor league system, one that is overflowing with uber-talented, can’t-miss studs.* And I’m one to make good on my promises.
*Gotcha: It’s opposite day.

Having already listed the team’s Top 10 prospects (per Baseball America) and pointed out how the move to the AL in 2013 will impact NL-only keeper owners immediately, let’s check into the org’s prospects who could make their debuts in 2012 — and maybe even make an impact — and those who are the best bets for future value once the franchise is in the American League.

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What Justin Verlander Can Teach Us

Justin Verlander had himself a fine season, you may have heard. The first pitcher to win both the MVP and the Cy in about a quarter-century, he combined superlative peripherals with just a little bit of luck and the backing of a strong team to produce a season for the ages. He probably won his owners many a fantasy league. From personal experience, each team of mine that featured the Tigers’ ace won its’ league this year.

That’s all fine and good, but you shouldn’t draft Verlander next year. Focus instead on finding the next Verlander.

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Punting Saves Hurts More Than It Helps

As we sit and wait for all the big-named free agents to find themselves new homes, it’s time to start thinking about strategy for next year.  There are numerous of ways to go about drafting your team and you’re going to hear plenty of do’s and don’ts from a variety of people.  So allow me to chime in here first and tell you why punting saves should not be in your plans when developing a proper draft strategy.  Some people see no harm in it and tell you to just bulk up elsewhere.  I disagree.  It’s an automatic concession of points to your competition and immediately puts you at a disadvantage.

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Example of the Drain that Power Only Players Have on a Team

A while ago, I ranked 2B according to their possible 2012 return using the Bill James Projections. There was some discussion in the comments on how detrimental it is to have a low AVG and SB number with a power hitter. I have decided to rank some 2B ‘roto style’ to help show how players that only have value in RBIs, Runs and HRs can be a drag on a team.

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Bargain Shopping in Houston

Over the last week or so we’ve done plenty of articles discussing the impending move of the Houston Astros to the American League and how it will impact those in the fantasy baseball community.  But no matter how many times we attempt to look on the bright side and find the silver lining in it all, there’s one common thing that seems to come through in every piece.  It’s like that early montage in the movie Major League where the Indians’ fan base is looking at their 40 man roster in disbelief — from some guy asking who Mitchell Friedman is to the groundskeepers’ claims that “these guys are sh*tty”.  There’s almost no love for the 2012 Astros and very little hope for the club moving forward.  However, just like the old fantasy adage (is there such a thing?) that states that even closers on bad teams can be good and helpful, the same can be said about everyday players from Houston.  Just because the team is in relative shambles, doesn’t mean that you can’t find some helpful players at a bargain cost.

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Looking For the Next Jose Bautista

On Monday, I looked at which players showed an increase in their batted ball distances from 2010 to 2011. Not all increases can be seen in the year to year data. Some changes begin to occur during the season like with Jose Bautista and Curtis Granderson in the past couple of years. Here is a look at some players that may be turning their game around for the better

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Crawford or Werth in 2012?

Last winter, Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth both hit the free agent market, signed with East division rivals and received lavish seven-year deals securing them enough cash to make like Scrooge McDuck and dive into their own personal swimming pools filled with gold coins. Crawford got $142 million to trek from Tampa Bay to Boston, and Werth left Philly for Washington for a cool $126 million. Crawford’s average draft position in ESPN leagues entering 2011 was fourth overall, and Werth’s ADP was 47. Both were prime picks expected to anchor fantasy lineups.

Unfortunately, both landed in their new digs with a Peter Griffin-like thud. Crawford posted the lowest batting average (.255) and OBP (.289) marks of his career while stealing just 18 bases, nearly 30 bags fewer than he nabbed with the Rays in 2010. Werth hit .232 and slugged .389, popping a disappointing 20 home runs.

Suffice it to say, neither will be drafted as high in 2012. But which is the better bet to bounce back? Let’s take a closer look at pros and cons of each high-price fly catcher.

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Jonathan Singleton, Jarred Cosart to AL: Prospect Chatter

Coincidentally, last Thursday, the exact same day that Major League Baseball approved the sale of the Houston Astros franchise, Baseball America released its Houston Astros Top 10 Prospects list. Of course, we know now that one of the conditions of the purchase by a group headed by Houston businessman Jim Crane is that the organization will be moving from the NL Central to the AL West for the 2013 season.

From a fantasy perspective, there are plenty of topics to consider. But since this is Prospect Chatter, we’re going to cover, well, the prospect aspect. Over two separate posts — one today, one later in the week — we’ll hit on all you need to know.

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Astros to Move to AL: Yawn?

The Astros are moving to the American League in 2013. We’ll be breaking this down in many different ways in order to help NL- and AL-only owners prepare for the moment in the best possible manner, but… for many leagues this won’t matter much. The Astros are just that bad.

For example, mixed-league re-drafters pretty much won’t care at all. Even in 2013, are there any current Astros that will see their draft status change much with the move? Okay, Wandy Rodriguez will be in his final year of his contract and he would be a 34-year-old starter moving to the more difficult league. There’s a player that would see his draft stock drop that year. But will he even be on the Astros roster by then? He seems like a trade candidate.

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Keeper League Strategy: Unique Scenario and Strategy

All keeper leagues have their own unique rules. Over the next few weeks, I will look over a few different formats to show some ways to take advantage of different systems. Here are the rules for one type of league. They are close to the rules for a couple of leagues I am in:

Each team is allowed up to a certain number of keepers (I will use 9 as an example). For each keeper, the highest round draft pick will be lost. For example, if you keep 6 players, you will not draft until the 7th round, losing picks in rounds 1 to 6. A player can be kept forever.

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