A big fuss has been made over the Royals considering dealing their top prospect, Wil Myers, for starting pitching help. And the fuss is for good reason. On the field, Jeff Francoeur’s totally unexpected demise left the Royals with a gaping hole to fill in right field. That reality coupled with owner David Glass’s frugalness – read the second half of this excellent bifurcated piece by Rany Jazayerli – has left many wondering why the Royals would trade almost seven seasons of a potential all-star right fielder for two years of an aging pitcher with a mortgage. But, the game played on natural grass is far different from the one that requires a username and password. Today, I’m here to tell you trading your prospects isn’t only okay, it’s encouraged in many formats. Read the rest of this entry »

Thanks to two excellent researchers, we have two different pitcher xBABIPs nestled within the posts on this site.

Matt Swartz has an xBABIP that’s part of SIERA. He was nice enough to re-run it with all pitchers with 40 innings pitched or more for 2003-12. He did not adjust for usage by weighting pitchers with high IP more heavily, but he did regress BABIP using factors that his research has shown to influence the number. His pitcher xBABIP formula is:

BABIP = .290 + .045*GB% – .103*K%.

Steve Staude used batted ball data to find a pitcher xBABIP in the Community Blog a while back. Of course, the weakness of a model using line drive percentage is the fickleness of that stat from stadium to stadium and year to year, but it does make a lot of sense intuitively: give up fewer frozen ropes and you’ll give up fewer hits. His regression led him to the following pitcher xBABIP formula:

xBABIP = 0.4*LD% – 0.6*FB%*IFFB% + 0.235

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The Marlins decision to overturn the majority of their roster on this week created ample opportunity for their minor leaguers to help your fantasy team earlier than expected.

In the outfield Giancarlo Stanton is the sole survivor of the team’s firesale leaving gapping holes center and left field. Top hitting prospect Christian Yelich will start the year at Double-A Jacksonville and his progression to be the Marlin’s everyday leftfielder will face little resistance. One can expect Yelich to post a high batting average, more than a dozen steals and moderate power. He’s an excellent player that fantasy owners in nontraditional leagues will love. I’m very high on Yelich and if it weren’t for the homerun suppression in Miami I would predict him to be a 25 homerun guy down the road. His swing is that pretty.

The best prospect the team received from Toronto was Jake Marisnick. Marisnick profiles best in a corner but their players’ lack of defensive ability has rarely stopped the Marlins from getting their bats in the lineup (See, Morrison and Coghlan). Marisnick struggled mightily in 247 Double-AA plate appearances so I expect him to return to Double-AA as Jacksonville’s centerfielder. However, he did play well in the Arizona Fall League so while its unlikely it wouldn’t be out of the question for Marisnick to breaks camp with the Fins. Ultimately, I question how good he will be. He’ll be playing outside his optimal position in a park the suppresses power. In addition to his general athleticism, power is his best attribute but his hit tool is lacking, leaving me questioning his ability to tap into his power.

The final outfielder stationed in Jacksonville will be Marcell Ozuna. I haven’t seen Ozuna play so it’s hard to comment on him other than saying his power could be very enticing to the punchless Marlins.

The Marlins could go in many different directions for their new infield but I expect Yunel Esobar to play shortstop and the recently signed Kevin Kouzmanoff to play third. Kouzmanoff, 30, is hardly special so he’ll face pressure from former first rounder Zack Cox. Cox was a standout at the University of Arkansas but I’ve long been on record as one who doubts his ability. Still, he has far more upside than Kouzmanoff if he can put things together.

This trade left the quality of the Marlins’ rotation in shambles. Josh Johnson and Mark Buehrle were swapped out for Henderson Alvarez, leaving the rotation will little depth and experience. Top prospect Jose Fernandez wasn’t challenged during his short Jupiter stint so he too should be in Jacksonville. The Fish will cap his innings somewhere below the 165 mark but he could provide a very boost to your August and September statistics should be as impressive as many predict him to be.

Watching Justin Nicolino this year I saw a deceptive lefty with good control but not an impact fantasy asset. His upside is a number three starter but I project a back of the rotation innings eater. Helpful for the Marlins, not so much for you.

There are many other prospects who were affected by this deal too but there isn’t enough space to discuss them all. With so much youth and uncertainty on this roster fantasy owners should keep a close eye on the Marlins and similar teams.

Short and simple. Using slash 12’s batted-ball-based xBABIP, updated by Jeff Zimmerman, I pulled together the 2012 xBABIPs for all players with more than 300 PAs. I’ve posted them below, sorted from ‘luckiest’ to ‘least lucky,’ and the full document is also here on a google spreadsheet for your use.

Enjoy!

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It has been nice waking up over the past few days and having one less item to complete, specifically setting my fantasy baseball lineups. I am going to enjoy the extra time, but not for long. The off season for fantasy baseball has begun and it means that preparation for next season needs to begin. The following are a few concepts I follow during the off season.

Winterize Keeper Teams – I talked about this concept last year and still believe in it.

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The fantasy baseball season is officially over. Whether you won your league or stopped playing weeks ago, there’s a lot to take away from the past season. While wounds are still fresh for some of you, it’s always important to reflect on your fantasy team. Knowing where you went wrong, or what went right can help you formulate a winning strategy in future seasons. As you look back on your team, here are a few things to keep in mind for next season.

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Personally, I hold the old-school belief that the well-rounded player with speed and defense is the best selection for the MVP hardware, but that’s of no concern until I have a vote. In the meantime, I’m left wondering what this debate means for fantasy.

We fantasy-obsessed know that this debate foreshadows a more important one: who should be the number one pick next year. Maybe the things we know about the players now can help us make that decision a little easier, but the conversation can still tell us something about the things we value in the fantasy game.

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If you’re coming down to the final three days of your last head-to-head baseball matchup of the year, or your roto league is a nail-biter, and your league has innings limits, then you might be thinking about taking advantage of a loophole that allows you to pile on innings in the day your limit is reached. This is definitely an option in Yahoo, as Jeff Zimmerman pointed out.

If you’re looking at a mass stream day, then Tuesday is your man. Wednesday is such a flake.

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Following the lead of my colleagues this week I’ll continue with players available to stream as  your head-to-head leagues come to a close.

David Murphy

As opposed to our own David Wiers, I’m not afraid of streaming Murphy, especially when his ownership is down to just 30% in Yahoo! leagues. Murphy has somehow been able to shed the platoon tag that’s been placed on him his whole career. Coming into the season his OPS against southpaws was .676…it’s .856 right now with a .351 batting average. That success has enabled him to turn into a fulltime player. His performance has dipped a bit in September as compared to August (.944 OPS) but he may be helped by the Rangers playing their next five games at home where he, like every other player in baseball, does very well. The A’s have a very good pitching staff and Murphy has been held hitless the past two games, but you’re not likely to find a better option owned in fewer than 50% of leagues.

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We’re almost in rear-view mirror mode. Impossible though it may be to comprehend, the season is almost over and if you’re not winning your league, you’re currently on the sliding scale of realizing you’re not going to win your league. If you find yourself in the latter group, I’m sorry for that.

With losing in mind, however, I wanted to highlight a draft that I thought was just simply ludicrous back in March. A manager punted pitching. Like, the whole thing. Not just saves — but anyone who might toe the rubber.

You might be totally familiar with this tactic, but I’d never seen it actually utilized in a money league before — and not by a manager who actually managed the whole length of the season.

This is a mixed, standard roto, 12-team league in the Yahoo! format — with a $100 buy in. I didn’t even realize it was happening during the madness of the draft. It was when I started to scan the competition that I noticed one team drafted just four relievers, all in the last handful of rounds: David Robertson, Alexi Ogando, Randy Choate, and Duane Below. Yes, Duane Below.

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