Archive for Strategy

Beat the Shift Podcast – Last Weeks Episode

The Last Weeks episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Strategy Section

  • Last Weeks Strategy
    • Gaining in categories vs. Defending in categories
    • Marginal categories
    • Ratio categories strategy
      • Number of starters vs. number of relievers
      • Balancing with quantity stats
    • Chasing wins
    • FAAB Bidding
    • Game 163

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Beat the Shift Podcast – Last Month Episode w/ Patrick Davitt

The Last Month episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Patrick Davitt

Strategy Section – Last Month

  • Categories
    • Which categories can fluctuate more in the final month of the season?
  • FAAB
    • How to manage FAAB in the final month of the season?
      • How does the first 5 months affect the final month FAAB?
      • Purchasing power
    • Leftover FAAB vs leftover auction dollars
  • Lineups
    • Should you be churning your roster more in the final month of the season?
  • Injuries

Strategy Section – Drafts

  • Draft strategies that went right in 2023
  • Draft strategies that went wrong in 2023
  • Taking injury risk players in drafts
    • Is Aaron Judge worth the risk in 2024 drafts?
    • Hitters vs. Pitchers

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Beat the Shift Podcast – Time Management Episode w/ Scott Chu

The Time Management episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Scott Chu

Expert League Update

  • Expert League Updates
  • Players that worked out this season
  • Players that busted this season

Strategy Section

  • Time management
    • Bare minimum tasks
    • Important tasks
    • Nice to haves
  • Important uses of time
    • Deep dives
      • Pre-season vs. in-season
    • Consuming fantasy content
    • Looking at standings, categories
    • Trading
  • Ethics of competing towards the end

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Beat the Shift Podcast – Scout Girl Episode w/ Andrea Arcadipane

The Scout Girl episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Andrea Arcadipane

Strategy Section

  • How to do an in-depth player analysis
    • What stats / components to look for
    • Hitters vs. Pitchers
    • Pre-season vs. in-season
    • Veterans vs. Rookies
  • How to detect undervalued players for stolen bases
    • Players who read pitchers well
    • Organizational philosophies
    • Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week
    • Pitchers who are easy to run on
    • Catchers who are easy / difficult to run on

Trade Deadline Wrap-up

  • Quick thoughts
  • Major prospects traded
  • Players who gained or lost value as a result of the MLB deadline deals
    • NL East
    • NL Central
    • NL West
    • AL East
    • AL Central
    • AL West

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Beat the Shift Podcast – Lineups Strategy Episode w/ Clay Link

The Lineups Strategy episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Clay Link

Strategy Section

  • Setting Lineups
    • General points of what to look for when setting your fantasy lineups
    • Streakiness
    • Sitting struggling starters
    • Looking at matchups
      • 2-Start Pitchers
    • When to consider category standings while setting your lineups?
    • Protecting pitcher ratios in roto
    • How to use Shohei Ohtani?
    • When to look at the “overall contest” categories vs. league specific ones in the NFBC.

Trade Deadline Deals

  • Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week
  • News and fantasy analysis of recent MLB deadline deals
    • Reaction to the Los Angeles Angels becoming “buyers.”
    • Other potential players who may be traded
    • Who to pick up in fantasy in anticipation of trades?

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The Anatomy of a Ottoneu Dynasty Rebuild: Part 7, Picking Up the Recycling

Ottoneu teams get a whole extra month to complete trades after the official MLB trade deadline which means players get a little longer to evaluate their rosters before really committing to going for a championship or not. If you haven’t been following along with this series, I’ve covered my process of rebuilding this team, from the initial decision to rebuild, to the draft, to preparing to sell. I even detailed the thought process behind a huge blockbuster trade. For rebuilding teams, this is still one of the most exciting periods of the season, not just because of the trade activity, but because of the waiver wire activity too.

On July 13, an owner in Ottoneu League 32 – Fantasy Field of Dreams cut Mike Trout from his roster. That was about a week after Trout was placed on the IL with a fractured hamate bone in his hand, sidelining him for 4-8 weeks. That set off a chain reaction of moves that I’d like to discuss today.

Trout’s injury couldn’t have come at a worse time for this Ottoneu player; his team was in seventh place, well out of contention and stuck looking towards the future. I’m sure Trout would have been the centerpiece of a big trade at some point this summer as he looked to recoup any value from the superstar to bolster his roster for the years to come. Instead, he looked at the calculus of Trout’s injury timeline and the upcoming trade deadline and decided to simply cut his losses. Trout’s salary was $70 and no one claimed him on waivers at that price. An auction for him was started a day after he became a free agent and he wound up getting added for $55 by the fifth place team with an outside shot at making a run down the stretch. If Trout returns on the early end of his timeline, he’ll likely give that roster a boost right when it would be needed most.

Adding a $55 player during the draft is tough enough to fit into the $400 budget Ottoneu teams are afforded; it’s even tougher during the season. The owner who picked up Trout wound up cutting Carlos Correa ($40), Seiya Suzuki ($27), and Freddy Peralta ($16). This was when my eyes lit up. I wasn’t about to try and fit Trout onto my roster but all three of those cuts were interesting at the right price. Unfortunately, I did something silly; I mistakenly thought Peralta would go unclaimed on waivers and I’d be able to start an auction for him in a few days. I figured his struggles early this season would have driven down his value below his $16 price tag and I’d be able to win an auction at less than that salary. Instead, three other teams claimed him with the team that originally rostered Trout winning the claim.

Auctions were started for Correa and Suzuki pretty quickly and I entered my maximum bids for each of them. I had a bit of cap space and a handful of higher priced players I could cut to create some more. But I wasn’t looking to add either of those players to help my team this year, I wanted them at a reasonable price to keep for next year. That certainly affected the amount I was willing to bid on them. I bid $28 for Carlos Correa, second behind the winning team bid of $33. Correa’s struggles and questionable health this year don’t necessarily make him a slam dunk keeper for next year and $30 was where I drew the line. It was the same story for Suzuki; I bid $16 because of health and performance concerns and the winning bid was $22. The team who won Suzuki is currently in fourth place and could afford to allocate a few more resources in the hopes that Suzuki could contribute to his club this year.

That second round of auctions set off another domino effect and Shane Bieber ($36) and Teoscar Hernández ($21) were suddenly on the waiver wire as cuts. I liked both of these guys too, even though Bieber was on the IL with an elbow issue. If he was able to avoid surgery, he could be a nice piece for next year at the right salary. Auctions were started for both players and I wound up winning both for $20 and $14, respectively.

The owner who originally cut Trout came out of all this with Peralta and Correa on his roster. That’s not a bad swap and it looks even better considering he’s saving about $9 on Correa’s salary if he chooses to keep him for next season. I’m sure this player knew that simply cutting Trout instead of hoping for a desperate trade in late August might create this kind of domino effect. He didn’t know which players would fall into his lap, but clearing Trout’s salary and getting a couple of potential keepers is a nice consolation.

For my part, I would have preferred to roster any of the guys from that first round of cuts. I do like my consolation prize in Bieber and Hernández, however. I originally rostered the latter at the start of the season and I like his value much better with a $16 salary rather than the $21 I had him at before. And $20 for Bieber could be a nice bargain if he can get past this elbow issue and come back next year healthy and fresh. This little exercise demonstrates why keeping some open salary cap to add players like this during the season is so important. Plenty of bargains can be found on the waiver wire as teams navigate the long season, and every once in a while, a team will cut a high priced player like Trout and set off a long chain reaction that shakes up multiple rosters.


Beat the Shift Podcast – Trade Deadline Episode w/ Kevin Hasting

The Trade Deadline episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Kevin Hasting

Strategy Section

  • MLB Trade Deadline Strategy
    • Planning your roster for the MLB trade deadline
    • Trading players on your fantasy team
      • Which is more accretive – pre or post MLB trade deadline?
    • Waiver Wire
      • Is it worthwhile to speculate on MLB players who could gain value from being traded?
      • Who ends up gaining more post trade deadline – the player being traded, or the player gaining playing time by filling a void?
    • Big name player trades
      • Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week
      • Is the change in value due to the change in venue sizeable / worthwhile to consider?
      • Should we impose a value penalty on players due to changing their environments / organizations mid-season?
      • Pitcher arsenal changes post-trades
  • Players likely to be traded from MLB teams that will be “sellers”
    • Cardinals
    • Royals
    • Pirates
    • Mets
  • How long should you hold players on your roster after they lose playing time / role?
  • NFBC semi-weekly roster setting
    • Maintaining roster flexibiltiy due to injury
    • Alternative format discussion
    • Using the utility spot properly

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Beat the Shift Podcast – All-Star Episode w/ Dr. Roto

The All-Star episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Dr. Roto

2023 Fantasy All-Stars

  • Fantasy MVP for Hitters
    • Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week
  • Fantasy MVP for Pitchers
  • Fantasy Waiver Wire MVP

Buy Low Players

Sell High Players

Waiver Wire

Pitcher Preview

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Beat the Shift Podcast – Prospects Episode w/ Eric Cross

The Prospects episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Eric Cross

Strategy Section

  • Taking stock of Rookies
    • 2023 Pans and Busts
  • How much do organizations play into the success of prospects?
  • Is there a difference in time to success for prospects between hitters and pitchers?
  • Do speed prospects pan out more than power prospects?
  • Is the sophomore slump a myth or reality?
  • Which prospects skills are most translatable right away to the majors?
  • Rookie playing time
    • Where is there more opportunity – on good teams or bad teams?
  • Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week
  • Cost / Benefit of drafting prospects who are set to come up later in the season
    • Balance of time to callup vs. upside
  • How to value trades in keeper / dynasty leagues
  • Dynasty rankings
    • Where to get dollar values?
    • Multiple time horizon rankings

Top Prospects for the rest of 2023

Top Prospects for 2024

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Beat the Shift Podcast – Surprises Episode w/ Cody Decker

The Surprises episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Cody Decker

Strategy Section

  • Christian Walker / Arizona Diamondbacks
  • Trade Deadline
    • Surprise Buyers and Sellers
  • Surprise teams in 2023
  • Surprise players in 2023
  • Undervalued players for the rest of 2023

Israel Baseball Team Experience

Favorite Baseball Movies of All Time

Different Orginazational Philosophies

Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week

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