Archive for Strategy

Lessons in Patience, Courtesy of Lance Berkman

Now is the time that a lot of managers, myself included, are starting to feel the first twinges of panic about our rosters.  Just a sampling from my world: Kila Ka’aihue hasn’t hit since his big walkoff homer, and is starting to lose playing time to Wilson Betemit.  Sean Rodriguez is still benched every other day despite the Longoria injury.  MadBum is pitching like crap.  The list goes on…

Here’s another, turning the clock back to last Sunday night: in my 20-team H2H points league (lwts-based), Lance Berkman is my starting 1B (actually, I’m playing him at UT to save his knees.  Zing!  That’s bad fantasy humor, but I’m incredibly amused by it).  And Sunday, I was seriously thinking about benching him.  Through his first eight games, Lance Berkman hit just .214/.290/.286.  Meanwhile, Travis Hafner was sitting on my bench, and he was absolutely on fire, hitting .370/.433/.630 over the first week!   Why not just swap out for the coming week?

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Mining the Minors: Rogers, Phelps, Sands

Fantasy owners in search of The Next Big Thing™ should take note of a certain starting pitcher in the Brewers system who is on the verge of the big leagues and has legitimate Cy Young stuff. Unfortunately, Zack Greinke is already owned in your league. Although he’s set to make a rehab start or two while recovering from his fractured rib, Greinke isn’t exactly eligible for a spot in this edition of Mining the Minors. But here are three lesser-known minor leaguers who could make an impact at some point in the near future. In fact, one of them is Greinke’s Nashville Sounds rotation mate.

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Chronicles of ottoneu: Platoon Catcher Strategy

Save for a few rogue ottoneu one league members, we’re all new to this game. One quirk in the game is the fact that though we have two catcher slots, we only get 162 games from those two slots combined. This is to reflect the reality shown in real baseball – all catcher situations are tandems, more or less. It’s a difficult position, and so even the hardiest, youngest catchers need days off. This does leave ottoneu managers in a difficult position – how do we best handle that position?

Let’s focus on the top 12 catchers by games played last year. They averaged 130 games played. That means you should really buy a number one catcher and then look for a $1 value to plug in for those other 32 games. That means if you are playing two catchers every game, you better watch out for your games played limit, like, now.

But how should you use those 32 games best? One thing you could do is find a backup catcher with a great platoon split. Then you could play him whenever that split is activated, and get more value out those games. Going back to 2008 in order to get a decent sample, here are some guys that have played well against lefties but might be backups in your ottoneu league:

Kelly Shoppach (.396 wOBA)
John Buck (.374 wOBA)
Carlos Ruiz (.368 wOBA)
Ryan Hanigan (.360 wOBA)
Ronny Paulino (.353 wOBA)

A natural extension of this approach might actually have you sitting your primary catcher if they aren’t great against southpaws. That would leave more at-bats for your backup in case you ended up with two strong catchers. Here are some front-line dudes that don’t play so front-line against lefties:

Matt Wieters (.275 wOBA)
Kurt Suzuki (.292 wOBA)
Miguel Montero (.328 wOBA)
Russell Martin (.333 wOBA)
Brian McCann (.333 wOBA)

There are some obvious caveats that should come to mind. First, this second list includes some young players that have not ‘proven’ that they cannot hit lefties yet. Also, a .333 wOBA is above average, and strong for a catcher, so maybe you shouldn’t sit Brian McCann, like, ever.

But there is a chance that if you have a first catcher that is a little weaker against lefties, and a backup catcher that is strong against lefties, you might find a great mix between the two. With a little daily effort, you can use platoon splits to get the best 162 games out of your roster.


American League Outfielders: Manny Fallout

As you’ve all seen/read/heard by now, the big news late last week revolved around one Manuel Aristides Ramírez Onelcida and his abrupt retirement from baseball. Expected to be a big part of the Rays’ offense when he signed in the offseason, Ramirez said goodbye after just 17 (mostly hitless) at-bats rather than face whatever “issue” he was alerted of by MLB’s Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment Program. Our Jonah Keri chimed in with his immediate reaction in the wake of the news, but let’s break down the fantasy fallout of Manny’s decision.

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What should you do with RP slots in points leagues?

I play in two points leagues, both of which use lwts-style scoring (although what follows applies to most other points systems).  They differ in format, however: one is a head to head points league with weekly lineups (my yahoo league), while the other is a more traditional points league with game and innings caps but daily transactions (my ottoneu league).

One of the biggest differences between the two systems is what the rule differences mean for reliever value.  In a head to head points league, it’s all about point accumulation.  And in my league’s scoring system, like in many points systems, a major key to generating the most points in a season is playing time, i.e. innings.  Because you can only set lineups once per week, this means that starters who have RP eligibility are tremendously valuable.  As an example, here are the top 11 pitchers who had RP eligibility in Yahoo last season, based on total FanGraphs Points:

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Mining the Minors: Cozart, Davis, Mathieson

“Eighty percent of success is showing up.”
–Woody Allen

That sentiment——if not the exact percentage attached to it——holds true for fantasy baseball. Think about it: The most talented prospect in the world can’t do anything to help your fantasy team if there’s no chance he’ll sniff a big-league job any time soon. Conversely, a less-talented, lesser-known minor leaguer on the verge of a call-up has the opportunity to get his foot in the door and contribute sooner rather than later, which can lead to the best type of success: the unexpected kind. Just because the production isn’t projected to be as rewarding doesn’t mean it can’t be, which is why these players need to be monitored. Because in the deepest of deep leagues, opportunity only knocks so often.

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Deep-League Waivers: Murphy, Pie, Dyson

A lot can change just a few days into the season. Like the 4-0 Orioles suddenly becoming World Series favorites! But surprising starts, unforeseen injuries and unexpected roster-makers will mess with even the best laid plans. Let’s hit on all three below, in the form of AL outfielders.

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The FanGraphs Fantasy ottoneu Experts League

Is there an elite experts dynasty league out there? One doesn’t immediately come to mind. And with ottoneu in the FanGraphs fold, it’s a perfect time to break new ground. So, in that vein, we are proud to announce the first annual FanGraphs Fantasy ottoneu Experts League. This 5×5 auction keeper will draft opening day and will surely test the wills and knowledge or our esteemed competitors.

Andy Behrens
(Yahoo – Roto Arcade)
Michael Rathburn (RotoExperts)
Jeff Erickson / Peter Schoenke (RotoWire)
Andrew Fiorentino, (RotoWire)
Tim Heaney / Nicholas Minnix (KFFL)
Andy Andres (Tufts University)
Neil FitzGerald (BaseballHQ)
Tom Keppy (BaseballHQ)
James Quintong (ESPN)
Jack Moore (RotoHardball)
Eno Sarris (FanGraphs)
Chad Young (ottoneu)

We’ll be reporting in on this league periodically, and you’ll hear from our competitors, too. Wish your hometown heroes best, and give us your best advice in the comments!


FAAB Strategies

If you’re reading this, chances are you know all about Free Agent Acquisition Budgets (or FAAB). In short, it’s waiver wire alternative in which owners draw from their allotted budget to place weekly blind bids on players available in free agency. (A typical budget is set at $100 for the season.) This format has become increasingly popular in recent years and for good reason—it requires much more strategy than simple waiver claims based on a priority list.

For whatever reason, I’ve always felt that an owner’s approach to FAAB can be determined by, well, ice-cream eating habits.
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Working the Waiver Wire

With most drafts done, owners will now be looking to the waiver wire to replace players demoted to the minors or on the disabled list. Here are a few guidelines I like to follow when looking to pick up available players.

Be ready for waiver wire bargains.

If there ever was a time of year to actively track the players being released by owners, it is the first couple weeks of the season. Owners will be trying to get daily production from every spot on their team and will be dropping talented players that start the season with limited playing time. Also, they might quickly lose patience with a player that is struggling in his first couple dozen at bats of the season. For example, over at Rotohardball.com, an owner is looking to pick up Mike Napoli who was dropped when another owner decided Anibal Sanchez was more valuable.

Always have a player on your team you are will to part with if an opportunity arises.

At all times, a player on each team needs to be expendable. I usually have this player be an extra outfielder on my bench or a middle reliever I am using to pad my pitching rate stats.

An owner may not specifically need the available player, but the new player could definitely be used in a trade to make a positional upgrade.

Using the above example with Napoli, the owner already has Posada, so a catcher is not really needed. They could use some help in the outfield though. Packaging Napoli and one of your current outfielders to a owner needing Napoli to get a better outfielder. Once the trade is done look over the waiver wire for the player you dropped for the trade. There is a decent chance the player is still available or if not, look for another player to flip.

Have an idea of your waiver wire position, but don’t let it dictate picking up players.

Every owner should be given a waiver wire position after they have finished their draft. What this position means is that if two owners are after the same player, the person highest on the waiver wire will get the player. This time of year, positioning can be important in case someone really valuable hits the waiver wire.

I really feel that unless you are in the first waiver wire position, feel free to pick up whoever you need. Don’t be afraid to go back to the bottom of the priority list. In most instances, I have found that I make it back to the top half of the priority list in just a few days as owners scramble to upgrade their team. If you do have a high position and don’t want to give it up, wait to see if the player passes trough waivers and then try to pick him up. By using this method, you will not lose your waiver wire position and hopefully get the player. Personally, I give up the position and get the player I need.

Well, there were a few strategies I use when dealing with the waiver wire and hopefully you can improve your team with them.