Johnny Cueto, Reds

Cueto, 24, posted xFIP’s of 4.37 in 2008 and 4.57 in 2009. While by no means bad, those performances were mildly disappointing, given the way the right-hander shredded minor league hitters on his way to Cincy.

Perhaps Cueto is ready to take a step forward in his development as a major league starter. After owning the Pirates and Brewers in his last two starts, Johnny has 7.35 K/9, 2.39 BB/9 and a 4.12 xFIP in 49 innings. He’s getting plenty of whiffs with his four-seam fastball (12 percent, double his MLB-average whiff rate on the pitch from 2009), and his slider is getting swings and misses 12.8 percent after eliciting whiffs 9.7 percent in ’09 (13.6 MLB average).

He’s getting behind in the count often, with a 52.2 first pitch strike percentage that’s well south of the 58-59% big league average, but Cueto’s contact and swinging strike rates have improved after he posted mediocre numbers in ’09. ZiPS projects a 4.12 FIP for the rest of the season, with 7.6 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9.

Brett Gardner, Yankees

Taken in the third round of the 2005 draft out of the College of Charleston, Gardner used his wheels to swipe bases at a high percentage clip (83.4 percent) and cover the gaps in the minors, while working the count for a 13.6 percent walk rate. Questions were raised about his bat, though, given Gardner’s lack of pop (.094 ISO) and 20 percent K rate.

While the 5-10, 185 pound lefty batter is unlikely to keep the .390 wOBA that he currently holds, Gardner has eased concerns about his offense. He’s drawing walks at a 10.3 percent rate this year, swinging at 20.2 percent of pitches outside of the zone (27.4% MLB average), and he’s making scores of contact (93.5 percent, compared to the 80-81% MLB average).

Gardner isn’t going to drive the ball with any frequency, but he controls the zone well and has proven to be one of the best stolen base thieves in the game: he’s 17-for-18 in 2010, and now has an 88.9 percent success rate in the big leagues. According to Baseball Prospectus’ base running numbers, Gardner has added nearly half a win with his legs (best in the majors), including about three runs on steal attempts. Add in his stellar outfield D, and Gardner might be the rarest of species: the unheralded Yankee.

Derek Holland, Rangers

After laying waste to Triple-A batters (38.2 IP, 37/7 K/BB, 8 runs allowed), Holland was recalled when Matt Harrison (biceps) was placed on the DL. While the 23-year-old lefty’s 2009 work with Texas looks grim at first glance (6.12 ERA in 138.1 IP), his underlying performance was much more promising: a 4.38 xFIP, with about seven whiffs per nine innings and 3.1 BB/9.

Holland has made two big league starts so far, and he has posted a 10/3 K/BB while allowing three runs. He has the stuff (low-90’s fastball, low-80’s slider, mid-70’s curve, low-80’s change), track record (9.7 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 in the minors) and prospect pedigree (Baseball America rated him #31 on its list of farm talents prior to 2009) to contribute in all fantasy formats.

John Lackey, Red Sox

Signed to a five-year, $82.5 million contract over the winter, Lackey has been lackluster this season. The long-time Angel dealt with right triceps and forearm injuries over the past couple of years and his contact rates had been rising, but his combination of solid K rates and quality control led to sub-four xFIPs from 2007-2009.

In Boston, Lackey has a middling 4.85 xFIP in 50 innings pitched. He’s striking out a career-worst 5.58 batters per nine frames, while walking a career-high 3.78 per nine. The 31-year-old’s contact rate has continued to increase: opponents have connected 85.8 percent in 2010, compared to an 80.4% career average, and Lackey is getting swinging strikes a paltry 5.6 percent (8.9% career average, right around the MLB average). He’s not locating well, either, with 45.7 percent of his pitches catching the plate (50.4% career average, 48-51% MLB average). Lackey’s curve has been worth +0.92 runs per 100 pitches during his career, but it has been thumped for a -1.96 runs/100 mark in 2010.

Owners are best off taking a wait-and-see approach with Lackey. His trade value is diminished right now, so it makes sense to hold on to him and hope that his stuff rebounds.

Lastings Milledge, Pirates

When Milledge managed just a .308 wOBA and a .094 ISO in 2009, some were willing to forgive the shoddy offensive showing due to a fractured right ring finger that might have affected his bat control. However, the former Met and National is hitting like someone broke both his thumbs.

In 136 PA, Milledge has an anemic .286 wOBA, and he’s hitting for even less power than last season (.066 ISO). The 25-year-old continues to swing at plenty of junk pitches (30.3 outside swing percentage), and he’s chopping the ball into the dirt and popping up at an alarming rate. Milledge has a 57.4 GB% this year, and his infield/fly ball rate is 16 percent (twice the major league average). Couple the punch less hitting with…adventurous routes in left field, and it might not be long before the Pirates give Jose Tabata a shot.

Mitch Talbot, Indians

Freed from the Tampa pitching factory that had buried him on the organizational depth chart, Talbot was shipped to Cleveland for Kelly Shoppach last December. Talbot’s got a 3.23 ERA in 47.1 IP for the Indians, but his peripherals suggest that bumpier days are ahead.

The 26-year-old right-hander showed strong ground ball tendencies on the farm (53.9 GB%), and he has continued to burn worms in the majors (49 GB%). Unfortunately, Talbot’s control has been ordinary (3.99 BB/9, with a 52.9 first pitch strike percentage) and he’s not fooling anyone. He has 3.61 K/9, his contact rate is near 90 percent and his swinging strike rate (4.1 percent) is less than half of the major league average. Talbot’s xFIP is 5.09. Unless he misses more bats or displays sharper control, expect that ERA to spike.

Ian Kennedy, Diamondbacks

The USC product mowed down hitters in the minors (9.9 K/9, 2.8 BB/9) and posted solid Major League Equivalent lines in 2007 and 2008, but modest stuff and a lost 2009 season dented Kennedy’s value. Last year, surgery to repair an aneurysm under his right armpit limited him to one big league inning and 22.2 frames at Triple-A.

Picked up from the Yankees as part of a three-team deal over the winter, Kennedy has settled in quite nicely in the desert. He has been fortunate on balls put in play (.252 BABIP) and his 82.9 percent strand rate will likely fall, so the 3.48 ERA will rise. But in 44 innings, the 25-year-old righty has 7.16 K/9, 2.25 BB/9 and a 4.11 xFIP.

Throwing high-70’s curves, low-80’s changeups and occasional mid-80’s sliders to supplement an 89-90 MPH fastball, Kennedy is holding his own with an 8.9 percent swinging strike rate (8.3% MLB average). He’s pounding the zone, with 52.7 percent of his pitches crossing the plate (48% MLB average) and has an impressive 65.9 first pitch strike percentage (57.7% MLB average).

Kennedy is a fly ball pitcher in a park that inflates homer production, and he’s not keeping the near-.250 BABIP. Even so, he’s owned in just 17% of Yahoo leagues and seems capable of posting a low-four’s ERA with a solid K/BB ratio from here on out.

Vladimir Guerrero, Rangers

Hampered by knee, pectoral and calf injuries, Vlad had a tame .343 wOBA in 2009. His Isolated Power, typically in the low-to-mid-.200’s, was .164. At 35, with his body seemingly failing him, Guerrero looked to be firmly on the decline.

Instead, The Impaler is hitting .339/.375/.539 (.390 wOBA), and his ISO is back up to an even .200. Guerrero is pulling the ball more often this year, and he’s hitting the ball with a little more authority to the middle field as well (data from Baseball-Reference):

And, would you believe that Vlad is actually hacking more than usual this year? Famous for a Lone star state-sized strike zone, Guerrero has chased 49 percent of pitches thrown off the plate, his highest rate dating back to 2002. He’s not human.

Jaime Garcia, Cardinals

The 23-year-old southpaw has received plenty of attention around these parts, yet Garcia is available in one-third of Yahoo leagues.

Featuring a cornucopia of pitches (fastball, two-seamer, curve, slider, cutter, changeup), Garcia has whiffed 7.11 batters per nine innings, walked 3.55 and has induced ground balls at a 62 percent clip.

St. Louis’ 22nd round pick in the ’05 draft will eventually surrender a dinger, his .252 BABIP will rise and he’ll strand less than 83 percent of base runners (those numbers help explain the 1.18 ERA). But Garcia’s xFIP is a stellar 3.59. He’s getting swinging strikes 9.6 percent, and has gotten batters to chase pitches out of the zone 28.5 percent (27.2% MLB average in 2010). Durability is a concern, but with solid K rates and ground ball tendencies, Garcia is well worth a roster spot.

Adam Jones, Orioles

Baltimore’s center fielder appeared headed for bigger and better things this season, coming off of a 2009 campaign in which he improved his walk rate, ISO and wOBA.

Instead of building off of 2009’s .343 wOBA, Jones holds a brutal .265 wOBA in 2010. After compiling a .180 ISO last year, he’s at .126 this season. He’s chasing more pitches out of the zone than ever (40.7%, compared to an already-high 35.9% career rate) and he’s taking a cut at fewer pitches within the zone (64.5% – his career mark is 70.6%). Swinging at more junk pitches and letting more strikes go by – that’s a recipe for a lot of pitcher’s counts. Indeed, Jones’ first pitch strike percentage is 66.4. Not surprisingly, he’s drawing walks at a career-worst 2.9 percent rate.

Scott Kazmir, Angels

Kazmir has lost velocity and K’s, while keeping the walks and extreme fly ball proclivities. Past reputation aside, Kazmir’s current blend of skills makes him the AL’s answer to Oliver Perez.

The 26-year-old lefty, slowed by elbow, quad and shoulder problems in recent years, has 7.82 K/9, 5.68 BB/9, a 32.9% ground ball rate and an ugly 5.51 xFIP in 25.1 innings this season. Though his swinging strike and contact rates have bounced back somewhat from last year’s career-worst levels, they fall short of his Rays glory days. And, he has placed just 42.9 percent of his pitches within the strike zone. Kazmir’s xFIPs from 2007-2009? 3.79, 4.13, and 4.88. He has been in gradual decline for a while – this isn’t the same electric starter who broke in with Tampa.

Aramis Ramirez, Cubs

Is it time to get concerned here? The 31-year-old Ramirez, who missed time last season with a dislocated left shoulder, is hitting just .163/.226/.260. Among batters with at least 80 trips to the plate, only Brandon Wood and Jerry Hairston have posted worse wOBA’s than A-Ram’s .218.

While Ramirez has an insanely low .183 BABIP, he hasn’t hit for any power (.098 ISO) and he’s whiffing much more than usual (24.4 K%, 15.4% career average). His percentage of in-zone contact is just 81.3, well below his 87.5% average since 2002 and the 87-88% big league average.

Ramirez usually rakes against fastballs. Per 100 pitches seen, he posted +1.3, +1.38 and +1.36 run values versus heaters from 2007-2009. This season, he’s at a MLB-worst -4.24. Maybe it’s just a timing issue, but Ramirez’s bat looks slow.

Francisco Liriano, Twins

Liriano wasn’t near as bad as his 2009 ERA (5.80) indicated, as he posted rates of 8.03 K/9, 4.28 BB/9 and a 4.55 xFIP. He entered 2010 with plenty of hype, and those who invested in the 26 year-old southpaw are being rewarded handsomely. In 36 IP, Liriano has punched out a batter per inning, with 3.25 BB/9 and a 3.09 xFIP. His slider has been like a predator drone: per Trip Somers’ Pitch F/X Tool, that slide piece has been thrown for a strike 77 percent (62.8% MLB average), with an obscene 24.2 percent whiff rate (13% MLB average).

His fastball velocity has climbed from 91.7 MPH in ’09 to 93.6 MPH this year, and he’s generating ground balls at a 53.9 percent clip. That resurgent ground ball rate appears to be the result of a boatload of two seamers: according to Liriano’s Pitch F/X page, he’s throwing a two-seamer 47% of the time this season, compared to 12.1% in 2009 when his ground ball rate was 40.2%.

In terms of fooling batters, Liriano is in elite territory thus far. His 31.4 outside swing percentage is a career best and eclipses the 27% MLB average. His 74% contact rate is also well below the 80.7% MLB average. While Liriano struggled to get ahead in the count last year (55.3 first pitch strike%), he is getting first pitch strikes 64 percent of the time in 2010 (57.5% MLB average).

Josh Hamilton, Rangers

Battling back, shoulder, groin and abdomen injuries in 2009, Hamilton turned in a middling .321 wOBA that fell well short of his .386 wOBA in 2007-2008. His ISO dipped to .158, and Hamilton hacked at 36.1 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. Falling behind the pitcher often 65.3 first pitch strike percentage), Hamilton drew a walk in just 6.6 percent of his plate appearances.

While the soon-to-be-29 year-old was sidelined with a shoulder contusion during spring training, he has managed a healthy .368 wOBA in 2010. Hamilton’s pop has returned (.227 ISO), and he seems to have a better game plan at the plate. His O-Swing% is down to a league average 27 percent, and his first pitch strike percentage sits at 59.3. The lefty batter’s walk rate is a career-best 10.2 percent.

Alfonso Soriano, Cubs

Soriano was a train wreck in 2009. Bothered by a left knee injury that eventually shut him down in September and required surgery, the left fielder authored a .314 wOBA (the worst full-season mark of his career). Soriano’s elite power was merely good (.182 ISO), and his aching legs robbed him of his once-solid speed.

While the 34 year-old will collect inordinately large checks for years to come ($18M annually from 2010-2014), his bat has bounced back. Soriano has slugged to the tune of a .447 wOBA to this point, with a .350 ISO. Perhaps it’s a coincidence, but pitchers seem reluctant to toss him a strike: Soriano is seeing fewer pitches within the zone than usual (39% this year, compared to 46-48% in recent years). He’s obviously not going to continue at this pace, and his days as a SB threat are through. But Soriano’s ZiPS projection for the rest of the season (.275/.334/.513, .368 wOBA) is plenty useful.

Ben Sheets, Athletics

Sheets has been a shell of his former self in Oakland. Returning to the majors after missing the 2009 season with a torn flexor tendon in his elbow, the 31 year-old righty has 4.75 K/9 and BB/9 apiece, with a 5.65 xFIP in 30.1 innings.

The former Milwaukee Brewer previously sat 92-93 MPH with his fastball, but he’s down to 91.3 MPH this season. Sheets isn’t missing much lumber, and his trademark precision is conspicuously absent:

Here’s a comparison of Sheets’ fastball and curveball during his last healthy season (2008) and 2010, courtesy of Somers’ Pitch F/X data:

The tally for Oakland’s $10 million investment so far? -0.3 Wins Above Replacement.

Carlos Lee, Astros

How bad has Houston’s “offense” been? The Astros rank dead last in wOBA at .271, nearly 20 points worse than the 29th-ranked Mariners (.290 wOBA). The ‘Stros are the worst club in drawing walks (5.3 BB%) and hitting for power (.088 ISO).

The most egregious offender, save for Kazuo Matsui, is Carlos Lee. El Caballo has limped to a ghastly .212 wOBA during his first 98 plate appearances. Lee has yet to go yard, has a .054 ISO and has expanded his zone with a 32.1 outside swing percentage. Odds are, Lee isn’t toast. But he is 33 years old and saw his ISO drip from the .220-.255 range from 2004-2008 to .189 in 2009. ZiPS projects a good, not great .357 wOBA for the rest of the season, with a .194 ISO.

Julio Borbon, Rangers

Texas’ supplemental first-rounder in the 2007 draft generated fantasy buzz due his wheels, but his lackluster plate discipline served as a drawback. So far, it looks like Borbon spent the winter watching Corey Patterson instructional videos.

Borbon has drawn ball four just once in 80 plate appearances (1.3%), while jumping at 41.4% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. That’s leading to plenty of pitchers counts, as Borbon’s first pitch strike percentage is 63.8. The 24 year-old has been unlucky on balls put in play (.238 BABIP), but his approach has been abysmal. Recently, the Rangers have been working in Craig Gentry (another speed player with limited secondary skills) in center field. Borbon has blazing speed and is a quality defender, but he’s a mess at the dish right now.

Every season we have unexpected hot starts from a multitude of players around the Majors. Some are for real, some are just a tease. The home run is one of the more valuable fantasy categories in many leagues. Let’s take a look at the Top 10 home run hitters in the Majors and try to sort out who’s legit and who’s going to make novice fantasy players look silly in the long run.

At the beginning of the season, I would have called you insane for telling me Vernon Wells would be leading the Majors in homers. After all, he’s coming off of three pretty lousy seasons (1.5 WAR or worse). But I’ve seen him with my own eyes quite a few times this season and that swing is for real. The outfielder had wrist surgery this past off-season, for an issue that had been dogging for, well, apparently for about three years. His approach still makes me cringe, as he pulls absolutely everything (even wild pitches headed for the first base dugout), so his average is probably going to suffer. As long pitchers keep making mistakes out and over the plate, though, Wells is going to cream pitches for doubles and homers.

I’ve been touting Matt Kemp as a 2010 breakout candidate for a while now and it looks like he might be ready to make me look smart. He’s hitting for power and average, while also driving in most of L.A.’s runs (20 in 14 games). He has a legit shot at a 30-30 season if he improves his stolen base rate.

Mr. Late Bloomer Nelson Cruz is out to prove that his ’09 season was not a fluke. He’s going to strikeout a fair bit and he probably isn’t going to hit .300, but a 30+ homer season is definitely within reason. Oh, and check out the three steals… another 20+ SB season, would certainly make him an even more attractive fantasy player.

If you think Wells is a shocking addition to the home run leader board, you’re probably on the floor with a tingly left side now that you’ve seen Jose Guillen’s name on the board. I mean, it’s almost like his contract is up or somethi- What? Oh. Guillen is currently hitting like a man possessed, but who knows if or when the streak will end. Enjoy it while it lasts and don’t feel bad for picking him up and riding the hot bat. (And yes, I know he apparently almost died last year from a clot).

I don’t think we really need to get too in-depth here with Chase Utley. He’s the best offensive second baseman on the planet (and a pretty nifty defender to boot). End of story.

Uh, well, the same thing goes for Mr. Pujols. The home runs are no surprise and they should not let up any time soon. The scary thing is that he’s actually kind of slumping right now. And it says a lot about his talent when we consider a .423 wOBA a slump…

Apparently nobody told Dustin Pedroia that 5’9” second basemen are not supposed to hit homers. He’s hit some dingers in the past, but he’s on pace for more than 20 homers this season. Alex Gonzalez opened the season with a real bang. His power output has slowed down somewhat over the past week but he still has five homers and eight doubles. He has hit more than 20 homers in a season, so the home-run burst is not that out of character.

Colby Rasmus is showing everyone why you should never count out a top prospect after a rough rookie season. The power is for real. Konerko is no longer a .280-.300 hitter like he was in his prime, but the 34 year old is proving that he still has some pop left in the tank. You should not be surprised to see Mark Reynolds‘ name on this list.

Neftali Feliz, Texas Rangers

Though the change may be temporary, Feliz has taken over closing duties from Frank Francisco.

One of two core players picked up in the July 2007 Mark Teixeira swap (Elvis Andrus being the other), Feliz beings mid-to-upper-nineties smoke, a hard high-70’s curve and an occasional mid-80’s changeup out of the ‘pen. The 22 year-old (in May) struck out 10.6 batters per nine innings in the minors. He has 11.8 K/9 in 34.1 big league frames, with 2.62 BB/9 and a 3.11 expected FIP. Feliz is adept at getting hitters to chase out of the zone, with a 30.1 outside swing percentage (25 percent MLB average).

Feliz’s long term role has yet to be determined, but there’s little doubt that he can be an effective, high-leverage reliever for the Rangers in 2010.

Chris Snyder, Arizona Diamondbacks

With Miguel Montero (torn meniscus in right knee) hitting the DL and likely headed for surgery that could sideline him for a significant amount of time, Snyder becomes the everyday backstop for the D-Backs.

Snyder is no stranger to health issues, as the 29 year-old was limited to 202 plate appearances in 2009 with a back injury that required surgery. His line (.200/.333/.352) and wOBA (.304) look ghastly, but he drew a walk nearly 16 percent of the time and still managed a .152 ISO. A .237 BABIP dragged down his numbers considerably.

Yeah, Snyder can’t beat a Molina in a foot race (career 1.0 Speed Score) and he pops the ball up a lot (career 14.7 infield fly rate), two traits that deflate BABIP (his career mark is .274). But if he’s healthy and gets a few more bounces to go his way, Snyder could be a nifty NL-only option: ZiPS projects a .239/.341/.438 line the rest of the way.

Jeremy Bonderman, Detroit Tigers

Bonderman has broken many hearts over the years. He has one of the largest splits between ERA (4.77 career) and xFIP (4.00) among starters, the result of a career .316 BABIP and a lower-than-usual strand rate (67.7 percent). Bonderman scarcely pitched at all over the 2008 and 2009 seasons following a procedure to correct Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. It’s enough to make you wanna throw a chair.

While one start doesn’t tell us much, Bonderman did look good while taking on the Indians on April 10th. In five frames, he struck out five and walked two, surrendering one hit and one run. Bonderman pounded the zone with his fastball and slider, throwing 59 of his 91 pitches for strikes (64.8 percent). Stamina and durability are big issues, but Bonderman is owned in just four percent of Yahoo leagues. He’s worth a look.

Chris Young, San Diego Padres

It’s been a rough couple of years for Young. He took an Albert Pujols liner off the face in 2008, while also struggling with a right forearm injury. In 2009, Young underwent right shoulder surgery that limited him to just 76 innings. As an extreme fly ball pitcher in a park where long drives die at the warning track, he’s in the best possible environment. But Young’s velocity has dipped from the high-80’s to the mid-80’s, and his walk rate has increased considerably. His percentage of pitches within the strike zone has plummeted, as has his swinging strike rate.

Now, Young heads back to the DL with shoulder tightness. Precautionary or no, Young’s stuff has declined over the past few years to the extent that he would be a liability in less hospitable ball parks. He shouldn’t be on your radar unless/until he can show more than mid-80’s “heat” high in the zone.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Texas Rangers

It’s difficult to remember now, but Salty was once the key piece in the aforementioned Teixeira bounty. But in 874 career major league plate appearances, the switch-hitter has authored a .251/.313/.388 line, with a .306 wOBA. Saltalamacchia has handled fastballs at an average rate, but off-speed stuff has flummoxed him: -2.4 runs per 100 pitches against sliders, -0.97 runs/100 versus curves and -1.37 against changeups. Not surprisingly, Salty has seen a rather low proportion of fastballs (55.4 percent).

Saltalamacchia underwent surgery for Thoracic Outlet Syndrome late last season, and he was recently placed on the DL with upper back stiffness. He won’t turn 25 until May, but the former top prospect is a flawed player at the moment. In Salty’s stead, Taylor Teagarden will try to prove that he can avoid being eaten alive by big league pitching. ZiPS (.215/.291/.369) thinks he’ll remain a tasty dish for opposing hurlers.

Ben Sheets, Oakland Athletics

Again, we’re dealing with small sample sizes here. But Sheets hasn’t shown crisp stuff with the A’s. The long-time Brewer, who missed the entire 2009 season with a torn flexor tendon in his right elbow, has a 4/7 K/BB ratio in 11 frames. Sheets has averaged 91.2 MPH with his fastball, compared to 92-93 MPH in past years. His swinging strike rate is 4.7 percent (8-9 percent MLB average), and his contact rate is well above average (88.1 percent, 80-81 percent MLB average).

It’s entirely possible that Sheets’ early struggles are forgotten in the coming months, with his fastball hitting its normal velocity and his performance improving greatly. The problem is, we just don’t know if that will occur at this point. If you own Sheets, don’t dump him for pennies on the dollar. But keep an eye on his fastball and curve in the coming weeks to see if they start to round into form.

Jon Rauch, Minnesota Twins

Manager Ron Gardenhire originally announced that the Twins would go with a closer-by-committee in the absence of Joe Nathan, likely causing some fantasy owners to shred their own UCL’s throwing something at the computer screen. However, Gardenhire has since changed course and will call upon Rauch in the ninth inning.

The towering, tatted up Twin has an unusually deep arsenal for a reliever, with a low-90’s fastball, low-80’s slider, mid-70’s curve and a mid-80’s changeup. Rauch has gone to those secondary pitches with greater frequency: his fastball percentage has fallen from 67.9 percent in 2006, 60.4% in 2007, 59.9% in 2008 to 52.8 percent in 2009.

He’s not your prototypical late-game reliever. Over the past three seasons, Rauch has struck of 7.3 batters per nine innings, with contact rates hovering around the MLB average of 80-81 percent. However, he does a nice job of getting ahead in the count, with a 63.7 first-pitch strike percentage since ’07 (10th among relievers over that time frame, and well above the 58% MLB average).

Add it all up, and you have a good, not great reliever who will provide value in all formats but won’t be a force by any means. CHONE predicts a 3.96 FIP in 2010, while ZiPS forecasts a 4.27 mark.

Felix Pie, Baltimore Orioles

With Nolan Reimold still working his way back from offseason surgery to repair a damaged left Achilles tendon (and taking grounders at first base), Pie figures to be in the lineup often as the 2010 season gets under way. The 25 year-old had his own health scare a few days ago (taking a Mo Rivera pitch off his right ankle), but he’s OK.

While his Cubs career came to a frustrating conclusion, Pie made some headway in 2009. In 281 PA, the lefty batter posted a .326 wOBA, showing progress in working the count. Never known for his patience in the minors (7.4 BB%), Pie drew a walk in 8.5 percent of his plate appearances. He has a career .300/.353/.478 line at the Triple-A level, and he should be at least a league-average hitter this upcoming season.

Pie’s inclusion in the opening day lineup, coupled with Reimold trying to get acquainted with first base, suggests that the O’s are intent on giving Pie’s decent bat and great range a chance to shine. If he shows some restraint at the plate, Pie could be a sleeper.

Shaun Marcum, Toronto Blue Jays

Taking a big league mound for the first time since September of 2008, Marcum tossed seven strong innings against the Texas Rangers. The 28 year-old righty, sidelined following Tommy John surgery, gave up three runs while punching out six batters and walking just one.

As BrooksBaseball.net’s Pitch F/X goodies show, Marcum did a great job of locating his fastball and changeup for strikes (69 percent for the fastball, 76 percent for the change). His curveball and slider weren’t as sharp.

Never a hard thrower, Marcum averaged 86 MPH with his fastball, a tick or two below his usual range (it’s possible that some cutters are classified as fastballs, throwing off the average, but that doesn’t seem to be the case). Of course, he relies on the fastball less than just about any starter in the game.

Marcum’s upside isn’t huge, but he did post rates of 7.31 K/9, 2.97 BB/9 and a 4.24 FIP in 151.1 innings in 2008. It remains to be seen whether he’ll remain healthy, but Marcum’s cornucopia of pitches, solid K rate and quality control make him a good option in AL-only formats.

John Bowker, San Francisco Giants

Bowker got the start in right field for the Giants on opening day, with Nate Schierholtz relegated to bench duty. San Francisco seemingly prefers Bowker’s bat to Schierholtz’s glove.

The 26 year-old lefty hitter hasn’t done much in limited major league looks (.300 wOBA in 427 PA), straying from the strike zone often with a 31.1 outside swing percentage (25% MLB average) and a 5.4 percent walk rate. However, Bowker was the epitome of patience at Triple-A Fresno in 2009: he batted .342/.451/.596 in 450 PA, drawing a free pass 16.4 percent while also hammering the ball with a .254 Isolated Power. Clearly, the former Long Beach State Dirtbag benefitted from a BABIP over .360, but his Major League Equivalent line (MLE) was still a handy .288/.376/.466.

What do the projection systems say about the free-swinger-turned-walk-machine? CHONE forecasts a .350 wOBA, with a 9.3 percent walk rate and a .180 ISO. ZiPS is less enthusiastic, with a .340 wOBA, 8.9 BB% and a .165 ISO. Keep an eye on the Giants’ lineup-Bowker could help in NL-only leagues.

Gio Gonzalez, Oakland Athletics

The 24 year-old southpaw fascinates and frustrates with his ability to blow hitters away one inning, and then looking like he’s pitching blindfolded after being spun in circles the next. The thrice-traded Gonzalez has earned a spot in Oakland’s rotation, and he could be a nice addition for AL-only owners.

Gonzalez’s 2009 ERA (5.75) looks ugly, but he suffered from a .369 BABIP and a home run per fly ball rate nearing 14 percent (10-12% average for starters). His expected FIP (xFIP) was much better, at 4.02. His control is poor (career 5.49 BB/9, with a 54.2 first-pitch strike percentage). But with that bat-missing curve, Gio will provide plenty of K’s. CHONE thinks Gonzalez could be a league-average hurler, with a 4.57 FIP.

Corey Hart, Milwaukee Brewers

Following a 2007 season in which he hit .295/.353/.539 with a .380 wOBA, Hart looked like an important part of the Brew Crew’s long-term plans.

While he shouldn’t have been expected to keep producing at that level, it’s awfully disappointing that he has turned in back-to-back mundane years at the dish (.327 wOBA in 2008, .331 wOBA in 2009). In ’08, Hart still hit for power (.191 ISO) but took a hack-happy approach (4.1 BB%, 31.7 outside-swing percentage). In ’09, he showed more restraint (9.1 BB%, 23.5 O-Swing%) but his ISO fell to .158.

One of the main reasons that Hart hasn’t come close to his ’07 work is his performance against sliders. He can’t hit them, and pitchers know it. Hart’s percentage of sliders seen has gone from 18.7% in 2007, 23.5% in 2008 to 24.1% in ’09 (sixth-highest in the majors). His run value against the slider was +0.68 in ’07, -0.2 in ’08 and -1.12 in ’09.

Now, Hart may at times take a backseat to Jim Edmonds, who has gone from talking about a comeback at St. Louis’ fan fest to starting on opening day in a few short months.

Brandon Webb, Arizona Diamondbacks

Plenty of fantasy folks placed their hopes on the surgically repaired right shoulder of Webb, hoping for a return of his whiff-inducing, groundballing goodness. According to MockDraftCentral, Webb had an ADP of 35 amongst pitchers, ahead of Roy Oswalt, Ryan Dempster and John Danks, to name a few. Unfortunately, Webb may not return to the majors until June, leaving many with a busted draft pick.

Diamondbacks fans must be wondering what they have done to incur the wrath of the baseball gods: you mean, Rodrigo Lopez and Kris Benson might start games?

Jack Cust, Oakland Athletics

Cust was DAF’d by the A’s following a year in which he showed a little more aggression at the plate and a dip in power output. He could land with a club such as the White Sox, but Cust seems resigned to accepting an assignment to Triple-A. CHONE and ZiPS both project a .360ish wOBA, which would be plenty useful in most formats (you don’t have to worry about those pesky defensive problems). But, Cust’s defensive limitations do hamper his appeal to NL clubs. As a result, he might only have value in mythical Pacific Coast fantasy leagues.

John Lannan, Washington Nationals

No, this isn’t an overreaction to one especially poor start from Lannan against the Phillies. Rather, it’s just a reminder that Lannan’s peripherals haven’t come close to matching his sub-four ERA over the past few years.

Perhaps I’m totally wrong, and Lannan has some yet-to-be-discovered ability to outpitch his component stats. But I wouldn’t bet on it. The difference between the 25 year-old southpaw’s career ERA (3.99) and FIP (4.84) is substantial. Lannan gets grounders (52.4 GB%) and has decent control (3.38 BB/9), but he doesn’t fool anyone (4.56 K/9). Others have wracked their brains trying to explain Lannan’s career .276 BABIP, to little avail.

There’s nothing in his batted ball profile that would suggest that he should post a lower-than-average BABIP. Lannan’s career infield fly ball percentage (IF/FB%) is 7.1 percent, below the near eight percent MLB average. So, he’s not getting a lot of weak contact on pop ups, which are near-automatic outs. His groundball-centric style is certainly a positive in terms of limiting extra-base hits, but groundballs have a higher BABIP than fly balls. Lannan’s career BABIP on grounders is .200, while the NL average has been in the .225-.245 range in recent years. That seems likely to rise. Lannan’s career line drive rate (18.3 percent) is pretty close to the 19% MLB average.

If there’s some BABIP-suppressing skill here, I’m not seeing it. Maybe I’m wrong, but I’d bet on an ERA in the mid-to-high four’s this season for Lannan.

Trevor Cahill, Oakland Athletics

Cahill had a rough rookie season after a brilliant minor league career, missing few bats and getting pasted by lefties as he left his breaking stuff in his back pocket. Now, Cahill is on the shelf with a sore left (non-throwing) shoulder that could keep him out during April. After that, he could head back to Triple-A. His future remains bright, but keep in mind that Cahill had minimal experience above A-Ball entering last season and is far from a finished product.

Ian Desmond, Washington Nationals

The 24 year-old Desmond was recently named Washington’s starting shortstop, overtaking $8 million man Cristian Guzman. Though the club said it wasn’t a factor, Guzman (who missed time with a shoulder injury last September and this spring) has struggled to unleash throws from deep in the hole.

A third round pick in the 2004 draft, Desmond had a big year at the plate in 2009. He missed two months following surgery to remove the hamate bone in his left hand, but he hit a combined .330/.401/.477 between Double-A and Triple-A. A near-.400 BABIP helped him tremendously, though he did do a better job of working the count (9.1 percent walk rate). In a late-season stint with the Nationals, Desmond posted a .372 wOBA in 89 plate appearances. What do the projection systems say about him?

CHONE: .265/.326/.412, .324 wOBA
ZiPS: .270/.334/.388, .325 wOBA
FANS: .278/.335/.412, .330 wOBA

Desmond should be about a league-average hitter in 2010. At shortstop, that’s useful in NL-only leagues. For more on Desmond, see Dan Budreika’s breakdown and Marc Hulet’s Top 10 Nationals prospects list.

Franklin Morales, Colorado Rockies

Huston Street (shoulder) will start the season on the DL, giving Morales the chance to rack up some saves in the early going.

As a starter in the minors, the 24 year-old lefty whiffed a batter per inning but walked a whopping 5.2 batters per nine frames. At the Triple-A level, Morales had 7.3 K/9 and 6.1 BB/9 in 168.2 innings. Shifted to the bullpen in 2009, he posted a 4.72 xFIP with 9.23 K/9 and 5.18 BB/9 in 40 innings.

At this point, Morales tries to overpower hitters with 92-93 MPH heat while hoping for enough weak swings to compensate for a lack of secondary stuff and control. Morales’ fastball has been a plus pitch in the majors (+0.57 runs/100 pitches), and he gets plenty of swings and misses: his fastball had an 8.4 percent whiff rate last year, compared to the six percent MLB average. However, his low-70’s curveball (-1.13) and high-70’s changeup (-0.66) lag behind, and his first pitch strike percentage in the bigs is just 50.9 percent (58 percent MLB average).

Though he’s far from a finished product, Morales is well worth picking up in all formats.

Jeff Clement, Pittsburgh Pirates

Clement was once considered a franchise building block in Seattle as a catcher with ample lefty pop. Now, he’s a 26 year-old first baseman aspiring to be the next Adam LaRoche in Pittsburgh. Though he has struggled in limited major league playing time (.237/.309/.393 in 243 PA), Clement has a career .279/.368/.492 line at the Triple-A level.

Problem is, that’s yawn-inducing now that he has fallen down the defensive spectrum. CHONE and ZiPS both project a .265/.340/.460-type season for Clement in 2010. That’s not bad, but consider that the average MLB first baseman socked to the tune of a .277/.362/.483 triple-slash in 2009. Clement will open the year as Pittsburgh’s starting first baseman, and he could have a little value in NL-only leagues. But he’ll have to mash to keep his spot.

Tom Gorzelanny, Chicago Cubs

The former Pirates prospect looked cooked in 2008, but his stuff bounced back in ’09 as he pitched well in seven starts and 15 relief appearances (3.73 xFIP). Gorzo has punched out 8.6 batters per nine innings with 2.5 BB/9 in Triple-A, and both CHONE and ZiPS figure that he’ll be a handy starter for the Cubs in 2010:

CHONE: 7.39 K/9, 3.61 BB/9, 1.15 HR/9, 4.43 FIP
ZiPS: 7.25 K/9, 3.74 BB/9, 0.98 HR/9, 4.25 FIP

His rotation spot isn’t guaranteed once Ted Lilly returns, but Gorzelanny has the talent to remain in the starting five and provide value in NL-only leagues.

(Jason Heyward is an obvious candidate here, but we examined his fantasy value a few days ago.)

Russell Branyan, Cleveland Indians

The Three True Outcomes nomad will start the season on the DL with a herniated disk in his back. Branyan isn’t likely to match last year’s .368 wOBA with the M’s (most projection systems have him regressing to the .350 range), and a balky back won’t help his chances.

On a positive note, CC Sabathia trade goodies Michael Brantley (left field) and Matt LaPorta (first base) will open the year in the starting lineup. Brantley offers a keen eye and high-percentage base thievery (46 SB in 51 tries at Triple-A last year), and LaPorta can put a charge into the ball (career .266 ISO in the minors).

Dustin McGowan, Toronto Blue Jays

When healthy, McGowan has been a quality starter (career 4.28 xFIP). But the 28 year-old hasn’t tossed a major league pitch since July of 2008 following shoulder surgery. He was recently shut down, so it doesn’t look like McGowan is particularly close to pumping mid-90’s heat and upper-80’s breaking stuff like he used to.

Melky Cabrera, Atlanta Braves

Fantasy players aren’t going to cry over spilled Melky, not with Heyward getting a chance to shine in right field. But with the best hitting prospect in the game making the squad, Cabrera goes from a possible sleeper in NL-only leagues (CHONE projects a .358 wOBA) to a part-time player who will share left field with Matt Diaz.

Minnesota’s closer-by-committee

With Joe Nathan (Tommy John surgery) sidelined in 2010, Twins skipper Ron Gardenhire plans to enter 2010 with a closer-by-committee approach. That means Jon Rauch, Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares and Jesse Crain could all get a shot at the ninth. Any owner who drafted Nathan, watched his elbow go boom and then picked up Rauch looking to recoup some value is probably getting all twitchy while reading this.

Stock Up

Jaime Garcia, St. Louis Cardinals

Dan Budreika took a close look at Garcia back in December, and the 23 year-old lefty has done nothing to dispel the notion that he could be a handy starter at the back of St. Louis’ rotation. Garcia made his big league debut in 2008, but Tommy John surgery sidelined him for the majority of the ’09 season.

In the minors, the 2005 22nd-round pick has punched out 8.3 batters per nine innings, with 3 BB/9. Armed with a low-90’s sinking fastball, a big-breaking mid-70’s curve and an occasional cutter and changeup, Garcia is an extreme groundball pitcher. On the farm, he has a career 58.7 GB%. If Garcia can stay healthy and show modest control, he could be a sleeper in NL-only and deep mixed leagues.

Sean Rodriguez, Tampa Bay Rays

The former Angels prospect is making a strong claim to be in Tampa’s lineup on a near-daily basis. Rodriguez’s minor league lines at the Triple-A level are eye-popping, though they should be tempered by the hitter-friendly nature of the Pacific Coast League.

Still, the soon-to-be 25 year-old has quality secondary skills for a middle infielder. CHONE projects Rodriguez to hit .241/.327/.447 in 2010, a performance that would be six percent above the MLB average once park and league factors are accounted for (106 wRC+). He’s going to whiff a lot, and his batting average won’t be pretty. But if you focus on Rodriguez’s walks and power, you could nab a serviceable starter in AL-only and deep mixed leagues.

C.J. Wilson, Texas Rangers

Wilson hasn’t started a big league game since 2005, but his lobbying to crack Texas’ rotation appears to have been successful. How will it go? Matt Klaassen tackled that topic last week, mentioning Wilson’s addition of a cut fastball to his repertoire and his improved showing against righty hitters in 2009.

There are some things to like here, but we probably shouldn’t get too giddy over one-year platoon splits for a reliever. Generally, a reliever moving into the starting rotation performs about one run worse per nine innings pitched. CHONE projects a 3.70 FIP for Wilson out of the ‘pen, so a rough estimate would have him in the 4.70 range as a starter. It’s hard to predict how he’ll react to the move in terms of retaining stuff, showing stamina and adapting (or not adapting) his pitch selection. But Wilson’s bat-missing ability and groundball tendencies (career 52.9 GB%) make him someone to watch.

Gaby Sanchez, Florida Marlins

The former Miami Hurricane seems likely to open 2010 as Florida’s starting first baseman, holding off top prospect Logan Morrison for the moment.

Sanchez is no spring chicken at 26, but he’s a career .302/.392/.485 hitter at the minor league level. He split his time between the infield corners in the minors, and he’d be a more interesting fantasy option if he attained multi-position eligibility. Sanchez isn’t a hot-shot prospect- his .270/.356/.430 CHONE projection would be run-of-the-mill for a first baseman- but his excellent eye and average power make him worth considering in NL-only leagues.

Stock Down

Kerry Wood, Cleveland Indians

Wood could miss up to two months with a strained latissimus muscle. In the meantime, Chris Perez will take over the closer’s spot, and it’s possible that he might not relinquish the job if he manages not to walk the yard.

The 32 year-old Wood was phenomenal in relief for the Cubs in 2008 (3.07 xFIP). In 2009, however, his walk rate spiked, and his outside swing percentage dipped from 31.3% to 20.2% (25% MLB average). His curve and new cutter were quality, but the run value on his fastball declined from +0.75 per 100 pitches in 2008 to -0.62 this past year.

Elijah Dukes, Nobody

The Nationals surprisingly cut ties with Dukes earlier this month, waving goodbye to a player who has tantalized and aggravated over the years. Granted, Dukes wasn’t particularly good in 2009 (88 wRC+), as his Isolated Power fell to .143 and he battled various injury problems. We know the off-the-field history, and he has struggled to stay healthy: hamstring, knee and calf ailments in 2008, and more hamstring and knee issues in ’09.

But even so, Dukes is 25 years old, owns a career .280/.369/.451 minor league line and has a career 104 wRC+ in the majors. He has a good eye at the dish (13.3 BB%, 22.2 Outside Swing%) and has pop in his linebacker-esque frame (.180 ISO). It’s hard to believe that he was cut loose for purely baseball reasons, given his talent and affordability.

Joe Nathan, Minnesota Twins

Displaying 94 MPH heat and a pair of devastating breaking pitches, Nathan mows down hitters in the late frames like few others: over the past three seasons, Nathan ranks fourth in the majors in reliever WAR, with 6.2.

Unfortunately, Nathan is headed for Tommy John surgery, causing owners who already drafted him to bang their heads against their keyboards repeatedly. Check out Eno Sarris’ look at who might take the ninth for Minnesota in Nathan’s absence.

Gil Meche, Kansas City Royals

A much-derided free agent acquisition, Meche was surprisingly effective and healthy in ’07 and ’08: he compiled 4.4 WAR in 2007 and 5 WAR in 2008, while easily topping the 200-inning mark both years (by far career highs in innings pitched). However, his body paid the price last year. Meche’s 2009 campaign was curtailed by back spasms in July and shoulder inflammation that ended his season a month early. Now, Meche is experiencing shoulder stiffness. Proceed with extreme caution.

Stock Up

Chris Coghlan, Marlins

Talk about a seamless transition to the majors. Often lost in the imposing shadows of top-tier prospects like Cameron Maybin, Mike Stanton and Logan Morrison, Coghlan has posted a robust .365 wOBA with the Fish in 2009.

The 2006 supplemental first-rounder out of Mississippi displayed exceptional control of the strike zone in the minors (11.8 BB%, 11.3 K%), and that firm grasp of the zone has been on display during Coghlan’s rookie year. The 24 year-old has walked 10.5% of the time while whiffing 16.6%, offering at just 20% of pitches thrown off the plate (25% MLB average).

Primarily a second baseman in the minor leagues, Coghlan has not made an especially smooth shift to left field (-13.8 UZR/150). It remains to be seen where he lines up in the long term (will Florida hold on to Dan Uggla?), but his bat is about as polished possible for a rookie.

Brad Penny, Giants

While in Boston, Penny was drubbed for a 5.61 ERA. However, his Fielding Independent ERA (FIP) of 4.48 suggested that he was basically a league-average starter. Penny punched out 6.08 batters per nine frames with the Red Sox, while issuing 2.87 BB/9. His BABIP was a lofty .336.

Since signing with San Francisco, the 31 year-old righty has allowed 4 runs in 22 IP, punching out 10 and walking four. Penny is neither the punching bag that his Boston stint would suggest, nor is he suddenly an ace with the Giants. He’s a quality mid-rotation option.

Boston possesses decision-makers far smarter than I. But, it’s hard not to feel as through the normally thorough, pragmatic organization made a couple of knee-jerk reactions in discarding Penny and John Smoltz.

That’s not hindsight bias; there were indicators suggesting that both still possessed the skills to retire hitters at the highest level. While it likely won’t have any consequence on the club’s playoff chances (in excess of 96% at the moment), Boston would probably rather not be left hoping that Paul Byrd can party like it’s 2002 or that Daisuke Matsuzaka can, you know, throw a strike.

Michael Brantley, Indians

Grady Sizemore is done for the season. That’s a downer for any baseball fan, but at least we get to take an extended look at the PTBNL in the 2008 Sabathia Swap.

Brantley, 22 is a patient lefty hitter with serious wheels. His .267/.350/.361 line at AAA Columbus does not jump off the page, but Brantley worked the count well (11.4 BB%, 10.5 K%) while swiping many bags at a high-percentage clip (46 SB in 51 attempts, good for a 90.2% success rate).

Brantley doesn’t any lightning in his lumber (.094 ISO in 2009, .069 ISO in his minor league career), and he’ll have to establish himself in a corner spot with Cleveland. But fantasy owners searching for steals, without wanting to settle on some Willy Taveras-like out-machine, could do worse than Brantley.

Clay Buchholz, Red Sox

For a 25 year-old with a career 4.24 FIP in the major leagues, Buchholz sure has been subject of many “what’s wrong with him?” debates. The lanky 6-3 right-hander boasts a wicked mid-70’s curve (+0.62 runs/100 pitches career) and a low-80’s changeup (+1.03), as well as a nifty mid-80’s slider (+1.50). Buchholz’s 92-94 MPH fastball, however, has often missed the mark (-1.11).

In 2008, Buchholz called upon his heater just 47.4% of the time. He seems to be gaining trust in the offering this season, as he’s throwing it more (over 56%) and with better results (+0.15 runs/100). He’s not blowing hitters away (6.18 K/9), but Buchholz’s walk rate has fallen from 4.86 BB/9 in 2008 to 3.79 in 2009. His transition to the big leagues might not have been immediate, but there’s still plenty of reason to expect Buchholz to be a major asset for the Sox in the years to come.

Miguel Montero, Diamondbacks

Very quietly, Montero has authored a sweet .366 wOBA for the D-Backs in 2009. The Caracas, Venezuela native performed well in admittedly hitter-friendly venues in the minors, and he has gotten progressively better in the big leagues (.296 wOBA in 2007, .330 in ’08). Chase Field certainly helps, but even in a neutral venue, Montero has been impressive. Miguel has posted +10.6 Batting Runs (a park-adjusted measure of offensive value) this season, 5th among all backstops.

Montero is an awfully liberal swinger, taking a cut at 29.7% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone and hacking at 75.3% of offerings within the zone (the averages are about 25% and 66%, respectively). However, that aggressive approach has not manifested in a high first-pitch strike percentage (his 55.2 F-Strike% is below the 58% MLB average), and Montero has drawn a walk in 8.6% of his PA.

Stock Down

Alex Rios, White Sox

White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen, um, isn’t exactly fond of his newly-acquired outfielder. Picked up from the Blue Jays in a straight waiver claim in August, Rios has compiled a line with the Good Guys that would make DeWayne Wise puff his chest out in comparison (.140/.156/.215 in 97 PA).

The 28 year-old’s wOBA has plummeted from the .350-.360 range from 2006-2008 to a paltry .302 in 2009. Has Rios been the victim of very poor luck, or is there something deeper going on here?

The answer appears to be a bit of both. Punching Alex’s homers, K’s, stolen bases, line drives flyballs, pop ups and grounders into this expected BABIP calculator, we find that Rios’ BABIP “should” be around .306, instead of his actual mark of .274.

Even assuming all of those additional hits would be singles, that takes Rios’ line to .274/.322/.421 instead of .242/.290/.389. That equates to a wOBA of about .334. Clearly a step down from his ’06-’08 lines, though his league-average bat and typically plus defense might make that contract less onerous than it appears to be at first glance.

Of course, that’s not to say there’s no reason to be concerned. Consider the following trends:

-Rios’ walk rate has dipped 7.9% of his PA in 2007, 6.5% in ’08 and just 5.9% in 2009
-His K rate has risen from 16% in ’07, 17.6% in ’08 and 19.1% in ’09
-Rios’ ISO has fallen from .201 in ’07, .170 in ’08 and .147 in ’09
-Alex is getting jammed more often, with his infield/ fly ball rate climbing from 6.6% in ’07, 7.9% in ’08 and 12% in ’09
-Rios’ performance vs. fastballs has fallen off a cliff: +2.30 runs per 100 fastballs seen in ’06, +1.75 in ’07, +0.79 in ’08 and -0.13 in ’09.

Kyle Davies, Royals

Davies’ appearance here might seem like a head-scratcher. After all, the former Braves prospect has surrendered just two runs in 17 September innings. The results are great. The process, however, is not.

Davies has dished out six walks in each of his past two starts. The 26 year-old righty has long struggled to hone his low-90’s heat, high-80’s slider/cutter, mid-70’s curve and low-80’s changeup. Davies has issued 4.49 BB/9 during his major league career, and he is up to 4.83 BB/9 in 2009.

It’s just plain difficult to have any kind of sustained success when you put yourself at the mercy of the batter so frequently. Davies has placed just 43.6% of his pitches within the strike zone this season (49% MLB average). Not surprisingly, that has led to his falling behind the hitter often (52.2% first-pitch strike percentage). Davies’ punitive demotion to AAA Omaha offered promise (46.1 IP, 8.5 K/9, 2.7 BB/9), but he hasn’t been able to avoid the free passes with K.C.

Edgar Renteria, Giants

Signed to a 2-year, $18.5M pact during the off-season, Renteria has been little more than replacement-level in 2009 (0.2 WAR). While the 34 year-old plays a passable shortstop, his bat (-19 Batting Runs) has been all kinds of awful, even by Giants standards. Renteria’s pop continues to wane:

ISO, by year

2006: .144
2007: .138
2008: .111
2009: .079

Jermaine Dye, White Sox

Dye (who turns 36 this off-season) may find the free agent waters to be downright frosty this winter. His outfield D is DH-worthy (-17.4 UZR/150 in RF in 2009, and that’s an improvement on his 2006-2008 work). At the plate, Dye has been MIA since the All-Star break (.166/.266/.269; Jermaine, meet Alex. Alex, Jermaine).

It’s probably best not to jump to the conclusion that he’s suddenly “done”, though. Gruesome second half and all, Dye still has a .341 wOBA for the season, with a .204 ISO. His BABIP since the Midsummer Classic is stunningly low at .182.

Chris Volstad, Marlins

Volstad was vaporized for 24 runs in 19.2 IP during August, walking 13 batters and allowing 33 hits. His first September start (3 IP, 5 R, 5 BB) went little better.

Overall, though, Volstad has compiled a decent 4.39 Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP, based on strikeouts, walks and a normalized home run/flyball rate). He has rates of 6.1 K/9 and 3.31 BB/9, but a huge 17.3 HR/FB% has put a massive dent in his ERA (now up to 5.17). The average for pitchers tends to be around 11-12%, and Volstad’s rate is the highest among all starters. That number should could down in 2010.

Stock Up

Gavin Floyd, White Sox

This past winter, I took a rather skeptical stance regarding Floyd’s “breakout” in 2008:

Unfortunately, there are a number of reasons to think that Floyd’s 2008 campaign was more the product of good fortune than great pitching. Floyd’s ERA was a shiny 3.84, but he surrendered 19 unearned runs- pitchers bear some responsibility for those tallies as well. His strikeout rate was pretty ordinary, as he punched out 6.32 batters per nine innings, while serving out 3.05 free passes per nine. With a 2.07 K/BB ratio that was actually below the 2.12 AL average, Floyd’s Fielding Independent ERA (FIP) was a mundane 4.77. The 0.93 run difference between his ERA and FIP was the fifth-largest among all starters. Floyd’s .268 BABIP is going to rise, and with it, so will his ERA.

Floyd’s ERA in 2009 (3.84) is an exact match for his 2008 work. However, there’s every reason to believe that it is legitimate this time around. In 185 IP, Gavin has whiffed 7.78 batters per nine innings, with 2.72 BB/9. His ’09 Fielding Independent ERA (3.77) is a full run lower than in 2008.

The 26 year-old righty’s fastball has never been an especially effective pitch (-0.91 runs/100 pitches during his career), and he seems to have adapted by throwing fewer and fewer heaters as the years go by. Floyd chucked a fastball 61 percent of the time in 2007, 54.7% in ’08 and just 48% in 2009.

In its place, the former Phillies prospect is relying more upon a cut fastball and a slider (the pitch data on Floyd’s page lumps them together, but his Pitch F/X data shows them as two distinct offerings). Couple that nasty pitch with a typically strong 80 MPH curveball (+2.75 runs/100) and a nice changeup (+1.15), and you have an awfully strong 2009 campaign. Normally susceptible to lefties (.279/.360/.518 from 2006-2008), Floyd and his new pitching strategy have subdued southpaws for a .227/.289/.378 line in 2009.

Pedro Martinez, Phillies

Pedro’s incredible career reached its nadir in Queens last season. He appeared to be breaking down physically, though his Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP, based on K’s, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate) of 4.61 was a full run lower than his 5.61 ERA. He looked as though he could be moderately useful at the back of someone’s rotation, but that was under the assumption that his shoulder or some other body part wouldn’t spontaneously combust.

After sitting out the first half of the 2009 campaign, Martinez inked a deal with the Phillies in July. Following a few minor league tune-ups, Pedro is giving big league hitters fits. During his first 23 frames, the wily 37 year-old Dominican Republic native has posted a 23/3 K/BB ratio.

It remains to be seen whether or not he can maintain the increase, but Martinez’s fastball velocity (88.6 MPH) is his highest since his last year with the Red Sox in 2004. Pedro’s pounding the strike zone (56 Zone%, 49% MLB avg.), getting ahead of batters (65.6 first-pitch strike%, 59% MLB avg.), and he’s getting outside swings when he lays one off the plate or in the dirt (29.9 O-Swing%, 25% MLB avg). Is there a more enjoyable pitcher to watch than Pedro? I think not.

Seth Smith, Rockies

Coors or no, Smith’s slugging exploits in 2009 (.317/.406/.572, 15 HR and a .419 wOBA in 315 PA) are impressive. The University of Mississippi product mashed in the minors and performed decently with the Rockies in 2008 (.349 wOBA in 123 PA), but it would have been difficult for anyone to see this coming. With +20.2 Batting Runs (a park-adjusted measure of offensive value), Smith trails only Todd Helton among Colorado batters.

While no one should expect Smith to keep on eviscerating the ball like Pujols, he combines a very keen batting eye (13.1% walk rate, 20.2 O-Swing%) with plenty of pop. Smith’s rest-of-season projection pegs him for a .297/.366/.484 line. Even if that’s “all” he delivers, that’s very useful. Of course, finding consistent playing time in Colorado’s crowded outfield could be problematic. But if he keeps on lacing everything he sees into the gap or over the fence, he’ll find enough AB’s. Smith isn’t this good. But as a patient lefty batter with a quality minor league track record and little fanfare, he reminds me of a poor man’s Brian Giles.

Tim Hudson, Braves

Pedro isn’t the only prominent name returning to the hill as the 2009 season wraps up. Hudson underwent Tommy John surgery last August, but he has looked rather sharp in his first two starts this season. The mended 34 year-old has posted an 11/4 K/BB ratio, allowing 3 runs in 12.1 IP. Huddy’s still got his deep mix of pitches: the sinker, cutter, curve and splitter are all present.

Will Atlanta pick up Hudson’s $12M option for 2010? There’s a $1M buyout, so the Braves have to decide if they think he’s worth $11M. For Hudson to be “worth” the dough, he would have to post about 2.4 Wins Above Replacement ($11M, divided by the $4.5M per WAR that teams pay on the free agent market). It’s possible if he’s healthy, though Atlanta’s other financial commitments in the rotation (as Erik Manning notes in the linked post, Lowe is due $15M, Vazquez $11.5M and Kawakami roughly $7M) could play a part in the decision-making process.

Jake Fox, Cubs

With Alfonso Soriano’s knee injury possibly requiring arthroscopic surgery, Fox figures to keep getting penciled into the lineup.

Fox, of course, went Coo-Coo for Cocoa Puffs in the International League, and he has batted .282/.328/.520 in 198 big league PA for the Cubs. Fox obviously possesses scores of power (career .235 ISO in the minors), but he’s also a hacker of the highest degree (5.9 BB%, 37.1 O-Swing%). The 6-0, 210 pound Fox might take a page out of the Adam Dunn playbook defensively, but he could be useful to power-starved owners looking for an offensive jolt.

Stock Down

Geovany Soto, Cubs

Soto pieced together a superb rookie season in 2008 (.371 wOBA), but his 2009 campaign has been defined by shoulder and oblique injuries, as well an anemic offensive showing (.310 wOBA). The 26 year-old Soto is in Lou Pinella’s dog house, with Koyie Hill stealing more AB’s.

Despite the rapid downturn in his numbers, there are reasons to believe that Soto circa 2008 and this year’s version are largely the same. His walk rate his up (11.2 BB% to 13.4%), his K rate is down (24.5% to 23.2%), he’s swinging at fewer pitches outside of the strike zone (20.1% in ’08, 18.1% in ’09), and his contact rate has increased (74.7% to 77.6%). Soto’s ISO is down (.219 to .162), but it wasn’t reasonable to expect a .200+ ISO from him again, and a .162 ISO is still excellent for a backstop. Geo still has the skills to be a big asset, if the Cubs are willing to play him.

Ian Snell, Mariners

Huh? Snell has won four straight starts for the Mariners. Surely he’s pitching like a stud, right? Well, not really. During that winning streak, the banished Bucco has only surrendered 7 runs in 21.2 frames. But he has done so despite actually walking more batters (11) than he struck out (10). Snell looked to be a long-terms asset for Pittsburgh following a 2007 season in which he posted rates of 7.66 K/9 and 2.94 BB/9, with a 4.01 FIP in 208 IP. The former 26th-round pick out of Delaware inked a three-year, $8.6M extension with the team in March of 2008, with club options for the 2011 and 2012 seasons.

Since then, however, Snell has been on a downward slope. He kept the K’s but lost the strike zone in 2008 (7.39 K/9, 4.87 BB/9), and his peripherals are looking Daniel Cabrera-esque in 2009 (5.52 K/9, 5.21 BB/9). Sensing Snell’s wildness, opposing batters have gradually swung at fewer pitches out of the strike zone (from 28.2% in ’07 to 21% in ’09; 25% MLB average). Consequently, his first-pitch strike percentage has plummeted from 63.7% during his banner 2007 to 52.1% in 2009 (59% MLB average). That’s the lowest rate among all starters tossing at least 100 innings.

Kevin Millwood, Rangers

Despite holding an ERA (3.77) that’s 1.3 runs lower than his 2008 mark (5.07), Millwood is not really pitching any better. In fact, one could make the case that his 2008 season was actually stronger.

Millwood’s K/BB ratio was 2.55 in ’08, but it’s just 1.62 in ’09. His FIP in 2008 was 4.02, yet it’s 4.89 this season. The difference? A massive change in BABIP, from .366 in ’08 to .279 in ’09. Texas’ dramatic improvement with the leather has surely played a part (28th in team UZR in 2008, 6th in 2009), but Millwood has also been pretty darned fortunate. Millwood’s tight rope act appears to be running thread-bare, however. Since the All-Star break, he has given up 22 runs in 42 frames, with a mediocre 1.24 K/BB.

Grady Sizemore, Indians

Sizemore’s 2009 season is over, as Cleveland’s cornerstone player undergoes a pair of surgeries to fix a balky elbow and an “instability of the abdominal wall.” Sizemore has turned in an ’09 campaign that most would characterize as disappointing (.343 wOBA, .248/.343/.445 line in 503 PA), but his core skills are still very much intact.

Grady walked 12.1% of the time, punching out 21.1% and posting a near-.200 ISO (.197). According to this Expected BABIP tool from The Hardball Times, Sizemore was pretty unlucky this year. His BABIP was just .276, yet his XBABIP (which uses HR, SB, groundballs, fly balls and pop ups in addition to line drive rate) was .309.

Even if we assume that all of Grady’s extra hits would be singles, his line “should” be closer to .281/.376/.478. That’s a typical Sizemore season (his career line is .275/.367/.485). About the only facet of Grady’s game that was truly off was his base stealing (13 SB, 8 CS). Don’t be scared off by his “down” 2009 season. Sizemore is still the same championship-caliber player he has always been, and he could be quite the bargain on draft day next year.

Josh Hamilton, Rangers

Hamilton’s first season in Texas was excellent (.385 wOBA), but 2009 has been marred by injuries and an impatient approach at the dish. Battling rib, groin, abdominal and back maladies, Hamilton has batted just .270/.318/.426 in 355 PA, with a .322 wOBA. Adjusting for his home ballpark, the 28 year-old has been below-average with the stick (-3.5 Batting Runs).

Hamilton’s walk rate has dipped from 9.3% in 2008 to 6.9% in ’09, with a 35.7 O-Swing%. He’s still crushing fastballs (+1.48 runs/100 pitches seen), but breaking stuff (-1.14 for the slider, -2.12 for the curve) and changeups (-2.53) are giving Hamilton nightmares. Perhaps noting Hamilton’s tendency to expand his zone, opposing pitchers have placed just 43.3% of their pitches within the zone against him (49% MLB avg). Josh is currently sidelined with a pinched nerve in his back.